scholarly journals The uncertainty of the statistical data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Berdondini
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Uniform Distributions ◽  
True Value

ABSTRACT: Any result can be generated randomly and any random result is useless. Traditional methods define uncertainty as a measure of the dispersion around the true value and are based on the hypothesis that any divergence from uniformity is the result of a deterministic event. The problem with this approach is that even non-uniform distributions can be generated randomly and the probability of this event rises as the number of hypotheses tested increases. Consequently, there is a risk of considering a random and therefore non-repeatable hypothesis as deterministic. Indeed, it is believed that this way of acting is the cause of the high number of non-reproducible results. Therefore, we believe that the probability of obtaining an equal or better result randomly is the true uncertainty of the statistical data. Because it represents the probability that the data is useful and therefore the validity of any other analysis depends on this parameter.

Pandemic as an object of criminological study

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 114-119
Author(s):  
Elena Steshich
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Death Certificate ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Deviant Behavior ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Traditional Methods

In the course of the doctrinal research, the author addresses the causal complex that accompanies the pandemic and affects the state, dynamics and trends of crime. Developing the idea of substantive criminological study of pandemic COVID-19 through the prism of such main blocks as: factors of deviant behavior associated with the pandemic; the pandemic and the features of the infringing conduct; legislation of the pandemic law enforcement pandemic; pandemic and digital technologies in the prevention of criminal threats; the extent and source of the pandemic; mortality and pandemic. Attention is drawn to the fact that in the context of a pandemic, when the efficiency of statistical data collection by traditional methods is reduced, monitoring excess mortality is an auxiliary method for studying the pandemic and its latency level, which is especially important for identifying the facts of criminal deaths. Attention is drawn to the fact that the entry of COVID-19 as a cause of death in the medical death certificate must be for all those who have died from an infection that caused, presumably caused or contributed to death. However, the practice of encoding causes of death and recording deaths continues to differ, which hinders a true understanding of the scale of the pandemic and its mortality. It is emphasized that when establishing a linkbetween the source of the pandemic and the fault of specific individuals, all victims whose cause of death is linked to COVID-19 (direct or indirect) should be recognized as victims of crimes.

GLOBAL AND NATIONAL INDICATORS FOR LAND DEGRADATION ASSESSMENT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasiliy Lobkovskiy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Relative Simplicity ◽  
Global Indicators ◽  
Global Data

Despite the convenience and relative simplicity of the international methodology, as well as the possibility for comparative analysis of the state of land for the entire territory of the country according to a unified methodology, nevertheless it can not be used as alternative methods through direct substitutions of the global LDN indicators to national counterparts. To harmonizing national and global data it is proposed to enhance the national land monitoring system with global indicators for using them in the national land assessment system to monitor and verify the accuracy of statistical data obtained by traditional methods.

One Size Fits All?

Methodology ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel C. Voelkle ◽  
Patrick E. McKnight
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Type I Error ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Type I ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Repeated Measures Anova ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Latent Curve

The use of latent curve models (LCMs) has increased almost exponentially during the last decade. Oftentimes, researchers regard LCM as a “new” method to analyze change with little attention paid to the fact that the technique was originally introduced as an “alternative to standard repeated measures ANOVA and first-order auto-regressive methods” (Meredith & Tisak, 1990, p. 107). In the first part of the paper, this close relationship is reviewed, and it is demonstrated how “traditional” methods, such as the repeated measures ANOVA, and MANOVA, can be formulated as LCMs. Given that latent curve modeling is essentially a large-sample technique, compared to “traditional” finite-sample approaches, the second part of the paper addresses the question to what degree the more flexible LCMs can actually replace some of the older tests by means of a Monte-Carlo simulation. In addition, a structural equation modeling alternative to Mauchly’s (1940) test of sphericity is explored. Although “traditional” methods may be expressed as special cases of more general LCMs, we found the equivalence holds only asymptotically. For practical purposes, however, no approach always outperformed the other alternatives in terms of power and type I error, so the best method to be used depends on the situation. We provide detailed recommendations of when to use which method.

Knowledge-Based Decision Support for Diagnosis and Therapy: On the Multiple Usability of Patient Data

1989 ◽  
Vol 28 (02) ◽  
pp. 69-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Haux
Keyword(s):  
Expert Systems ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Patient Data ◽  
Attribute Selection ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Statistical Data Analysis ◽  
Inference Mechanism ◽  
Diagnosis And Therapy ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Clinical Registries

Abstract:Expert systems in medicine are frequently restricted to assisting the physician to derive a patient-specific diagnosis and therapy proposal. In many cases, however, there is a clinical need to use these patient data for other purposes as well. The intention of this paper is to show how and to what extent patient data in expert systems can additionally be used to create clinical registries and for statistical data analysis. At first, the pitfalls of goal-oriented mechanisms for the multiple usability of data are shown by means of an example. Then a data acquisition and inference mechanism is proposed, which includes a procedure for controlling selection bias, the so-called knowledge-based attribute selection. The functional view and the architectural view of expert systems suitable for the multiple usability of patient data is outlined in general and then by means of an application example. Finally, the ideas presented are discussed and compared with related approaches.

Confidentiality of Statistical Records: A Threat-Monitoring Scheme for On Line Dialogue

1976 ◽  
Vol 15 (01) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Schlörer
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
High Ratio ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Monitoring Scheme ◽  
Access Controls ◽  
On Line ◽  
Bona Fide

From a statistical data bank containing only anonymous records, the records sometimes may be identified and then retrieved, as personal records, by on line dialogue. The risk mainly applies to statistical data sets representing populations, or samples with a high ratio n/N. On the other hand, access controls are unsatisfactory as a general means of protection for statistical data banks, which should be open to large user communities. A threat monitoring scheme is proposed, which will largely block the techniques for retrieval of complete records. If combined with additional measures (e.g., slight modifications of output), it may be expected to render, from a cost-benefit point of view, intrusion attempts by dialogue valueless, if not absolutely impossible. The bona fide user has to pay by some loss of information, but considerable flexibility in evaluation is retained. The proposal of controlled classification included in the scheme may also be useful for off line dialogue systems.

Russian Oil: Production and Exports

2003 ◽  
pp. 136-146
Author(s):  
K. Liuhto
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Oil Transportation ◽  
Sea Ports ◽  
The Baltic

Statistical data on reserves, production and exports of Russian oil are provided in the article. The author pays special attention to the expansion of opportunities of sea oil transportation by construction of new oil terminals in the North-West of the country and first of all the largest terminal in Murmansk. In his opinion, one of the main problems in this sphere is prevention of ecological accidents in the process of oil transportation through the Baltic sea ports.

Through the prism of Spain. Socio-economic causes of different outcomes of Russian and Spanish civil wars

2017 ◽  
pp. 142-155
Author(s):  
I. Rozinskiy ◽  
N. Rozinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
World War I ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Russian Civil War ◽  
World War ◽  
Common Features ◽  
Economic Well Being

The article examines the socio-economic causes of the outcome of the Spanish Civil War (1936-1936), which, as opposed to the Russian Civil War, resulted in the victory of the “Whites”. Choice of Spain as the object of comparison with Russia is justified not only by similarity of civil wars occurred in the two countries in the XX century, but also by a large number of common features in their history. Based on statistical data on the changes in economic well-being of different strata of Spanish population during several decades before the civil war, the authors formulate the hypothesis according to which the increase of real incomes of Spaniards engaged in agriculture is “responsible” for their conservative political sympathies. As a result, contrary to the situation in Russia, where the peasantry did not support the Whites, in Spain the peasants’ position predetermined the outcome of the confrontation resulting in the victory of the Spanish analogue of the Whites. According to the authors, the possibility of stable increase of Spanish peasants’ incomes was caused by the nation’s non-involvement in World War I and also by more limited, compared to Russia and some other countries, spending on creation of heavy (primarily military-related) industry in Spain.

Small Industry, Gimmicks and Moscow Statistics, or How the Small Russian Enterprise Came into the World (Russian Physiological Sketch, 1830-1840)

2009 ◽  
pp. 123-129
Author(s):  
Yu. Golubitsky
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Russian Enterprise ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
The World ◽  
Small Industry ◽  
Xix Century

The article considers business practices of Moscow small industry in the XIX century, basing upon physiological sketches of N. Polevoy and I. Kokorev, statistical data and the classification of professions are also presented. The author claims that the heroes of the analyzed sketches are the forefathers of Moscow small businesses and shows what a deep similarity their occupations and a way of life bear to the present-day routine existence of small enterprises.

Budgeting in Socio-economic Development Strategies (Raising a Problem)

2008 ◽  
pp. 134-151
Author(s):  
A. Shastitko ◽  
M. Ovchinnikov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Social Change ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Economic Development Strategies

The article proposes an approach to the analysis of social change and contributes to the clarification of concepts of economic policy. It deals in particular with the notion of "change of system". The author considers positive and normative aspects of the analysis of capitalist and socialist systems. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the system to be changed are introduced, their fulfillment is discussed drawing upon the historical and statistical data. The article describes both economic and political peculiarities of the transitional period in different countries, especially in Eastern Europe.

Market of Insurance in Russia: Major Tendencies and Problems of Development

2006 ◽  
pp. 115-127
Author(s):  
T Natkhov
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Statistical Data Analysis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Insurance Sector ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Basic Characteristics

The article considers recent tendencies in the development of the market of insurance in Russia. On the basis of statistical data analysis the most urgent problems of the insurance sector are formulated. Basic characteristics of different types of insurance are revealed, and measures on perfection of the insurance institution in the medium term are proposed.

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