Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh

Widespread poverty is the most serious threat and social problem that Bangladesh faces. Regional vulnerability to climate change threatens to escalate the magnitude of this poverty. It is essential that projections of poverty be made while bearing in mind the effects of climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the agrarian sub-national regional analysis of climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh under various climate change scenarios and its potential impact on poverty. This study is relevant to socio-economic research on climate change vulnerability and agriculture risk management and has the potential to contribute new insights to the complex interactions in household income and climate change risks to agricultural communities in Bangladesh and South Asia. The current study uses analysis of variance, cluster analysis, decomposition of variance and log-normal distribution to estimate the parameters of income variability that ascertain vulnerability levels and help us to understand the poverty levels that climate change could potentially incur. It is found that the income share in income sources revealed that income category shares across the various regions of Bangladesh are far from uniform. The variance decomposition of income showed that agricultural income in Mymensingh and Rangpur is the main cause of income difference. Moreover, large variance of agricultural income in the regions is induced by gross income from rice production. Additionally, constant reduction of rice yield due to climate change in Bangladesh is not such a severe problem for farmers, however, the extreme events like flood, flash flood, drought, sea level rise, and greenhouse gas emission based on RCPs could increase the poverty rates in Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Barisal, and Khulna regions that would be highly affected by unexpected yield loss due to extreme climatic events. Therefore, research and development of adaptation measures to climate change for regions where farmers are largely dependent on agricultural income is important.

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Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli6030065 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 65 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Md. ALAMGIR ◽

Jun FURUYA ◽

Shintaro KOBAYASHI ◽

Mostafiz BINTE ◽

Md. SALAM

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Analysis ◽

Economic Research ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Severe Problem ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Agricultural Income ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Regional Vulnerability

Widespread poverty is the most serious threat and social problem that Bangladesh faces. Regional vulnerability to climate change threatens to escalate the magnitude of poverty. It is essential that poverty projections be estimated while bearing in mind the effects of climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to perform an agrarian sub-national regional analysis of climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh under various climate change scenarios and evaluate its potential impact on poverty. This study is relevant to socio-economic research on climate change vulnerability and agriculture risk management and has the potential to contribute new insights to the complex interactions between household income and climate change risks to agricultural communities in Bangladesh and South Asia. This study uses analysis of variance, cluster analysis, decomposition of variance and log-normal distribution to estimate the parameters of income variability that can be used to ascertain vulnerability levels and help us to understand the poverty levels that climate change could potentially generate. It is found that the levels and sources of income vary greatly among regions of Bangladesh. The variance decomposition of income showed that agricultural income in Mymensingh and Rangpur is the main cause of the total income difference among all sources of income. Moreover, a large variance in agricultural income among regions is induced by the gross income from rice production. Additionally, even in the long run the gradual, constant reduction of rice yield due to climate change in Bangladesh is not a severe problem for farmers. However, extreme events such as floods, flash floods, droughts, sea level rise and greenhouse gas emissions, based on Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), could increase the poverty rates in Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Barisal and Khulna—regions that would be greatly affected by unexpected yield losses due to extreme climatic events. Therefore, research into and development of adaptation measures to climate change in regions where farmers are largely dependent on agricultural income are important.

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Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-18740-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Camille Leclerc ◽

Franck Courchamp ◽

Céline Bellard

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pacific Ocean ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

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Africa’s Energy Renewal: The Twin Challenges of Energy Deficit and Climate Change

Journal of African Economies ◽

10.1093/jae/ejz022 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 28 (6) ◽

pp. i4-i15

Author(s):

Amadou N R Sy ◽

Witness Simbanegavi ◽

Njuguna Ndung’u

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Good Governance ◽

Private Investment ◽

Energy Sector ◽

Energy Deficit ◽

Economic Research ◽

Institutional Reforms ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Fiscal Space ◽

Sub Saharan

AbstractA significantly large energy deficit and high vulnerability to climate change seriously impede sub-Saharan Africa’s path towards sustainable and inclusive growth. The extent to which the region can leverage the opportunities offered by renewable energy is an important policy question with implications for economic research. This special issue argues that policy and institutional reforms as well as good governance will play an important role in opening up the energy sector to private investment and expanding the fiscal space. Such a constellation, by increasing investment in the energy sector, would allow for increased access to reliable and affordable electricity by both households and businesses, which should help unleash Africa’s potential. Several future areas of research are also identified.

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Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12166402 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (16) ◽

pp. 6402

Author(s):

Pedro Pérez-Cutillas ◽

Pedro Baños Páez ◽

Isabel Banos-González

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Invest Model ◽

Discharge Water ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change

The Rhône basin is considered a complex river socio-ecological system, which houses numerous socioeconomic activities closely linked to its river courses, as well as competition between the different users of these water resources. Likewise, its increasing vulnerability to climate change highlights the need to assess the potential effects of a set of climate scenarios to assist the management of these resources. With this aim, we have analysed the effects of five scenarios on different environmental zones of the basin characterised by altitudinal features, using the “Water Yield” hydrological module of the InVEST model. The model outputs show that the Rhône basin will have significant discharge water variations and changes in the seasonality of the hydrological regime, being able to trigger serious economic and environmental effects under the simulated scenarios. Regarding these altitudinal environmental zones, results show important differences in the final water balance, resulting in the mountain and subalpine zones being the most affected by these scenarios. The uncertainty in the availability of water resources and the need for its sustainable management will require the establishment of important adaptations to the new challenges imposed by these scenarios, particularly in alpine zones, due to its sensitivity and fragility to climate change.

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Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand

Frontiers in Plant Science ◽

10.3389/fpls.2021.618039 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Anne-Gaelle E. Ausseil ◽

Richard M. Law ◽

Amber K. Parker ◽

Edmar I. Teixeira ◽

Abha Sood

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Zealand ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Regional Analysis ◽

Pinot Noir ◽

Gas Emission ◽

Phenological Stages ◽

Grape Cultivar ◽

Emission Pathway

Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices.

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Global vulnerability hotspots: differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-03203-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 169 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Feldmeyer ◽

Joern Birkmann ◽

Joanna M. McMillan ◽

Lindsay Stringer ◽

Walter Leal Filho ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Vulnerability Assessments ◽

Regional Vulnerability ◽

Development Policies ◽

International Indicator

AbstractClimate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.

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Indicator Based Spatial Climate Change Vulnerability of South West Coastal Bangladesh

Journal of Scientific Research and Reports ◽

10.9734/jsrr/2019/v23i530135 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Md. Abdur Razzaque ◽

Muhammed Alamgir

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Principal Component ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Multivariate Statistical ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Secondary Sources ◽

Coastal Bangladesh ◽

South West ◽

The Future

Aims: The aim of the study was to assess the indicator based climate change vulnerability of south west coastal Bangladesh and its future. Place of Study: Four districts form south west coastal Bangladesh, having a total of 50 upazilas, have been selected as the study area. They are Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barguna and Patuakhali districts. Methodology: This study has been conducted, using multivariate statistical techniques, to assess the vulnerabilities of the coastal region of Bangladesh by considering the IPCC framework of vulnerability studies. A total of 31 indicators have been selected of which 23 are socio-economic and 8 are biophysical which have been retrieved from the secondary sources. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been applied to derive unbiased weights of all indicators considering both present (2011) and the future (2050) climate change scenarios. Results: This study has identiﬁed 7 principal components through PCA which has been grouped as PC1 (Demographic Vulnerability), PC2 (Economic Vulnerability), PC3 (Climatic Vulnerability), PC4 (Health Vulnerability), PC5 (Agricultural Vulnerability), PC6 (Infrastructural Vulnerability) and PC7 (Water Vulnerability). For all 7 PCA groups (termed as vulnerability proﬁle), the number of high and medium vulnerable coastal Upazilas will be significantly changed in the future. No of highly vulnerable Upazila will increase from 0 to 1 for PC1, unchanged for PC2, increase from 0 to 1 for PC3, from 32 to 33 for PC4, from 47 to 68 for PC5, decrease from 48 to 46 for PC6, and an increase from 14 to 21 for PC7, respectively. Conclusion: Discrete spatial maps of each profile have been generated to assess the regional variation of all vulnerability proﬁles across the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. The ﬁndings of this study might be useful for policy makers and planners.

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Assessment of vulnerability to climate change in the Inner Mongolia steppe at a county scale from 1980 to 2009

The Rangeland Journal ◽

10.1071/rj14011 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 36 (6) ◽

pp. 545 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Tingting Yang ◽

Peng Li ◽

Xinhong Wu ◽

Xiangyang Hou ◽

Pengtao Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Inner Mongolia ◽

Rural Economy ◽

Global Climate ◽

Physical Geography ◽

Eastern Region ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Change Framework ◽

National Investment

Most of Inner Mongolia is covered with natural grassland and is highly sensitive to global climate change because of the physical geography, the highly variable climate, and the complicated socioeconomic conditions. The climate is generally wetter in the east becoming drier towards the west of the region. Using a Pressure-State-Response model to select climate-related assessment indicators, a vulnerability assessment to climate change framework of counties in Inner Mongolia was built, which included three layers and 17 indicators. Climate change vulnerability of eight counties in the steppe area of Inner Mongolia was assessed from 1980 to 2009. The results showed that in the past 30 years, climate change vulnerability of eight counties has decreased with the decrease more pronounced after 2000. The lowest value for vulnerability was in 2008. The vulnerability of the western region was higher than that of the eastern region. Counties with a desert ecological system had a higher vulnerability than counties with steppe. Under the background of exposure increasing and sensitivity slightly decreasing, a continuing significant improvement in adaptive capacity is the key reason for a reduction invulnerability of the Inner Mongolia steppe area to climate change. The volatility of the climate on an inter-annual scale can cause changes in vulnerability between years. With the development of the rural economy and increases in national investment in the environment, the vulnerability of the Inner Mongolian steppe has been significantly reduced, but, overall, the vulnerability remains high. Most of the counties are moderately vulnerable, some counties are seriously vulnerable, even extremely vulnerable, and strong measures need to be adopted to strengthen the ability to adapt to climate change.

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Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/srep33744 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jianjun Huai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Adaptive Strategy ◽

Drought Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Regional Vulnerability ◽

Australian Wheat ◽

Multi Level ◽

Optimal Measurements ◽

Level Analysis

Abstract Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

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Climate change impact assessment on water security in South Africa: A case study in a semi-arid river basin

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/20199806014 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 98 ◽

pp. 06014

Author(s):

Yali Woyessa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Africa ◽

River Basin ◽

Historical Data ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Impact ◽

Semi Arid

The main aim of this paper is to assess the impact of regional climate change scenarios on the availability of water resources in a semi-arid river basin in South Africa using a hydrological model called Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this paper, climate change data was derived from two downscaling approaches, namely statistical downscaling experiment (SDE) and dynamic downscaling (CORDEX). These were derived from the GCM simulations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) and across two greenhouse gas emission scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The spatial resolution of the dataset for the SDE method is 25 km × 25 km and 50 km × 50 km for the CORDEX method. Six GCM models were used for SDE set of data and four for the CORDEX set of data. SWAT model was run using these data for a period of up to mid-century (2020 – 2050) for SDE and for a period of up to the end of this century (2020 – 2100) for CORDEX data. The results were then compared with long-term historical data (1975-2005). Comparison of measured data with simulated historical data showed strong correlation (R2 = 0.95 for SDE data and R2 = 0.92 for CORDEX data), which is indicative of the reliability of projected future climate.

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