Spatio-temporal distribution analysis of TB in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China
Abstract Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global public health problem, which also affects economic and social development. China has the third largest burden of tuberculosis in the world. TB control made the slowest progress in western China while the highest prevalence of it showed up in Xinjiang. The study was conducted to investigate the spatial epidemiological features of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (referred to as Xinjiang) and compared the regional differences in the incidence of TB, for the 2013-2016,which can provide scientific reference for TB prevention and control. Methods: Based on the TB monitored data, descriptive statistics was used to analyze the distribution characteristics of TB patients. Spatial correlation analysis and spatio-temporal scanning techniques were used to explore the clustering of TB in Xinjiang. Results: A total of 178,674 TB cases were notified in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2016 with an average annual incidence of 195.32/100,000. The incidence of TB in Xinjiang showed an upward trend. Male and female patients accounted for 52.56%and 47.44% respectively,with the sex ratio being 1.11:1. The number of cases continuously increased with the increasing age,and the elderly TB patients aged 60 years and above accounted for 46.77%.Most of the patients with TB were farmers and shepherds, accounting for 72.11%.The incidence of TB presented an upward trend from east to west and from north to south. Obvious spatial aggregation was observed in the incidence of TB in 98 countries and districts from 2013 to 2016 and the global Moran’s I was 0.5768 (P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of TB showed remarkable seasonality. The hot spots of TB were mostly concentrated in the southern Xinjiang with Kashgar as the center, while the cold spots were in northern Xinjiang with Urumqi as the center. Conclusion: The TB incidence displayed spatial and temporal aggregation at the levels of district and county in Xinjiang during 2013-2016, with high risk areas relatively concentrating in the southern Xinjiang.It is necessary to conduct targeted TB prevention and control in key areas and allocate health resources reasonably. Keywords: Tuberculosis; Spatial autocorrelation; Spatio-temporal scanning analysis