scholarly journals The dynamic impact of international agricultural commodity price fluctuation on Chinese agricultural commodity prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-409
Author(s):  
Xiaoyu Zhang ◽  
Yongfu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relation ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Price Policy ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
International Commodity ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Lag Model

The correlation between Chinese and international commodity prices may be nonlinear because of China’s minimum agricultural commodity purchase price policy and temporary storage policy. In order to research this nonlinear dynamic correlation mechanism, we construct a nonlinear Granger causality test model and a nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model including Chinese and international agricultural commodity (soybean, corn, rice, and wheat) price variables. Our empirical results reveal that a unidirectional causal relation exists between international and Chinese prices for soybeans and corn; specifically, international prices of soybeans and corn Granger-cause Chinese prices of soybeans and corn. Moreover, the pass-through effects between Chinese and international commodity prices are asymmetric; Chinese agricultural commodity prices respond more strongly to positive shocks than negative shocks of international agricultural commodity prices.

scholarly journals Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets of China

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi-Xi Zhang ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Market Fundamentals

We employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test to examine whether there are multiple bubbles in Chinese agricultural commodities. The proposed approach is suitable for time series data and identifies the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The results indicate the existence of bubbles for some agricultural commodity prices, such as garlic, ginger, corn, and wheat prices, that deviate from their intrinsic values upon market fundamentals. The bubbles in the garlic and ginger market are related to speculative activities. The other bubbles, in the corn and wheat market, are associated with the rising oil price, international market, and the negative effect of stockpiling policy. The authorities should recognize bubbles and observe their evolutions, leading to Chinese agricultural commodity price stabilization. These findings suggest corresponding measures to be implemented. China should establish a unified market information release platform to avoid speculative activities and formulate a market-oriented agricultural policy to enhance competitiveness among the international markets.

scholarly journals On the Dynamic Relationship between U.S. Farm Income and Macroeconomic Variables

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables—agricultural commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates—on the U.S. farm income. For this purpose, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration with quarterly data for 1989–2008. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the long-ran behavior of U.S. farm income, but has little effect in the short-run. We also find that the commodity price and interest rate have been significant determinants of U.S. farm income in both the short- and long-run over the past two decades.

scholarly journals Growth of Output and Productivity in Pakistan’s Agriculture: Trends, Sources, and Policy Implications

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4II) ◽  
pp. 527-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.Ghaffar Chaudhry ◽  
Ghulam Mustafa Chaudhry ◽  
Muhammad Ali Qasim
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Price Policy ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Negative Effect

The paper aims to review the growth performance of Pakistan’s agriculture from 1950 to 1995. The long-term growth rate of agriculture, although respectable, has exhibited considerable yearly fluctuations even between decades. The period of the fifties and early seventies lacked any growth. Accelerating and high growth rates marked the decade of the sixties but the performance has not been satisfactory since 1979-80 and average growth rates have barely exceeded the population growth rate, with widespread implications for growth of national economy, food security, and social welfare of the masses. Area, modern inputs, and technology have been the major determinants of growth but prices were equally important because of their incentive and disincentive effects. The agriculture price policies adopted during the 1980s are known to have had a negative effect on the development and use of technology in agriculture. In order to boost agricultural productivity, a change in price policy is needed to ensure incentive prices. This could be done by setting agricultural commodity prices at par with corresponding import and export parity prices. A higher investment in research and development can hardly be overemphasised. There is an urgent need to remove the bottlenecks in agricultural input markets since these markets represent the typical monopoly position. To break up the monopoly of registered dealers and to promote competition, free sales in the open market by interested parties and individuals may be allowed.

Monetary factors of commodity prices using fuzzy binomial approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Chunxiao Yan ◽  
Ziyue Huang
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
International Commodity ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper relates the illustration of policy related to monetary announcement on various international commodity price and explore the similarities and differences of the effect in QE1, QE2, QE3, exit stage and interest hike stage through event study method and the whole sample VAR model and rolling sample VAR model. Results show that: (1) the implementation of unconventional monetary policy has a significant positive effect on the international commodity market, while the exit plan and the interest rate increase policy have some negative effects on the commodity markets, but the effects are not significant. (2) In terms of the VAR whole samples, it can be seen that unconventional policies of monetary simulated by reserve of federal have an importance in impact on international commodity prices. This paper developed a approach of fuzzy binomial that can be utilized in various projects using commodity prices using uncertainty. In terms of the analysis of the rolling samples, the cumulative effect on commodity prices during QE1 and QE2 are stronger than that of QE3, exit stage and interest rate hike stage in general.

scholarly journals Correlation clustering: analysis of major agricultural commodity markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 288-302
Author(s):  
János Szenderák
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Vegetable Oils ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Correlation Clustering ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Agricultural Input ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this article is to compare the clusters formed by the correlation distances between the agricultural and the energy commodity price returns in different periods of time. The energy and agricultural markets have become more interlinked in the past ten years, which can be attributed partly to the increased usage of biofuels. According to the results of this research, after the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/09, the relationship has become tighter between the agricultural commodity prices and the price of the crude oil. Based on the hierarchical clustering, the relationship between crude oil and sugar, and especially between crude oil and vegetable oils has become stronger. These results support the hypothesis of a more interconnected agricultural and energy market after 2013. Furthermore, the emerged relationship of crude oil with the vegetable oils may indicate the connecting role of biofuels, since biofuels require agricultural input materials, partly vegetable oils. However, the role of biofuels in the present analysis requires further researches.

scholarly journals The Transmission of Global Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices in a Commodity Import-Dependent Country: Evidence from Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32
Author(s):  
Mounir El-Karimi ◽  
El-Ghini Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses the Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test to examine the effect of global oil and food price changes on the inflation in Morocco over the period from 1998Q1 to 2018Q1. The results show significant transmission from oil and food prices to domestic inflation. Specifically, the food prices are shown more important than oil prices in explaining inflation in the short-run, which reflects the high weight of food in the consumption basket. However, the effect of oil prices on inflation is much more persistent than the effect of food prices. Furthermore, the impact of commodity price shocks on inflation exhibits asymmetries. The oil price hikes affect more weakly the inflation than oil price decreases, whereas the food price increases are more transmitted to inflation than food price decreases. Our findings may provide useful information to researchers and policymakers in formulating more appropriate monetary policy.

Book Reviews

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-378
Keyword(s):  
Social Protection ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Jean Paul ◽  
The University

Finn Tarp of UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen reviews “The Economics of Food Price Volatility”, by Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian D. Wright. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Nine papers, plus nine comments, present and assess recent research on central issues related to recent food price volatility. Papers discuss influences of agricultural technology on the size and importance of food price variability; corn production shocks in 2012 and beyond─implications for harvest volatility; biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility; the evolving relationships between agricultural and energy commodity prices─a shifting-mean vector autoregressive analysis; the question of bubble troubles─rational storage, mean reversion, and runs in commodity prices; bubbles, food prices, and speculation─evidence from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's daily large trader data files; food price volatility and domestic stabilization policies in developing countries; food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty; and trade insulation as social protection.” Chavas is Anderson-Bascom Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Hummels is Professor of Economics in the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University. Wright is Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California at Berkeley.

scholarly journals THE EFFECTS ON COMMODITY PRICES OF EXTRAORDINARY MONETARY POLICY

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
AITBEK AMATOV ◽  
JEFFREY H. DORFMAN
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Face

AbstractThis article examines the relationship between Federal Reserve monetary policy and other macroeconomic indicators to both a broad commodity price index and an agricultural commodity price index by employing a vector error correction model. Excessive liquidity and the recent long period of ultralow interest rates appear to have played a statistically significant role in affecting prices in the commodities markets. The responses of commodity prices to monetary policy that we estimate generally conform to earlier findings, but the sensitivity of the responses appears different in the face of the unprecedented scope of recent Fed activism.

scholarly journals FLUKTUASI HARGA KOMODITAS PANGAN DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP INFLASI DI PROVINSI BANTEN

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Astari Febriani Setiawan ◽  
Adi Hadianto
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Chicken Meat ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Food Category ◽  
Food Commodity

Banten Province has a fluctuation inflation. The highest inflation is contributed by food category. Therefore, the price of food commodity become an important issue in the province of Banten. This research analyze the prices of food commoditiy, such as rice, corn, curly red chili,  onion, beef, chicken meat and layer egg. The purposes of this research are, to describe the food commodity price developments in Banten using descriptive analysis, to analyze fluctuations of food commodity prices and their impact on inflation in Banten using VAR models (Vector Autoregression), to analyze the inflation linkages between regions around Banten using Granger Causality. The results show the developments of commodity prices such as rice, corn, curly red chili, onion,beef, chicken meat and layer eggs generally showed an upward trend. VAR analysis results showed that in the short term only curly red chili which have a significant impact on inflation in Banten. On the long-term there are six commodities that impact significantly on inflation in Banten, those are beef, corn, rice, chicken meat, layer egg and red chili curly. The results of Granger causality test show that there is only one way relation that is Banten inflation affecting Lampung inflation.

scholarly journals Anchor Borrower Programme on Agricultural Commodity Price and Employment Generation in Kebbi State, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 240
Author(s):  
Saheed Zakaree S. ◽  
Alexander A.A. ◽  
Isa Abdulmumin A. ◽  
Adeneye O.A.
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Food Supply ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Periodic Review ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Low investment in the agricultural sector, as well as problem of financing are among the major challenges hindering farmers in the rural areas engaging in mechanized farming that might increase food supply, and thereby checking the agricultural commodity prices, and possibly creating more job opportunity in the agricultural sector. In an effort to meet the food supply for the growing population of the country, the government introduced various policies aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in basic food supply, among these policies is the Anchor Borrower Programme. This study examines the impact of Anchor Borrower Program on agricultural commodity price and employment generation in Kebbi state, Nigeria. Data were collected through interview and structured questionnaire administered to a sample of 400 farmers in Argungu L.G.A, of which 360 questionnaire were correctly filled and returned. A multiple regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The results reveal that Anchor Borrower Programmes (ABP) supports for farmer have a positive and statistically significant impact on agricultural commodity price (ACP) and employment generation (EMPG) in agricultural sector in Kebbi state, particularly in Argungu LGA. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that anchor borrower programme policy in Nigeria should be encouraged and subjected to periodic review so as to provide more platforms for employment generation and stabilize agricultural commodity price in Kebbi state, particularly in Argungu LGA.

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