scholarly journals The Use of Joinpoint Regression Analysis in the Mortality Study of Developmental Age Population in the Podlaskie Voivodeship, 2003–2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Genowska ◽  
Jacek Jamiołkowski ◽  
Magdalena Zalewska ◽  
Ewa Rodakowska ◽  
Kamila Kurpiewska ◽  
...  

Abstract The youngest population in society is recognized as that at the healthiest stage of life but is burdened by the occurrence of premature death that should be avoidable. There is a need to use adequate statistical methods in assessing the health status of the population of developmental age. The aim of the study was to analyze trends of mortality in children and adolescents by age and gender in the Podlaskie Voivodeship in the years 2003-2012 by joinpoint regression and to identify the causes of mortality. The mortality rate was analysed according to gender and the age groups: 0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years in the Podlaskie Voivodeship. The data were obtained from the Central Statistical Office for the period 2003-2012. Differences in mortality levels between age and gender subgroups were obtained by the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Join- point regression was used to analyze the trends in mortality. The nomenclature of ICD-10 was used to assess the causes of mortality of children and adolescents. In the Podlaskie Voivodeship in the years 2003-2012 in the 0-19-year-old age group, the highest proportion of deaths (42.4%) occurred during the first year of life. There were differences in mortality rates between boys (8.0/104) and girls (3.1/104) in the 15-19-year-old age group (p < 0.01), and also between the 1-14-year-old and 15-19-year-old age groups (p < 0.01), both among boys (2.1/104 vs. 8.0/104) and girls (1.5/104 vs. 3.1/104). Monotonous trends were shown regarding total mortality rates in infants. There was a drop in the mortality rate of infant girls (AAPC = 5.3%, p < 0.05) and boys (AAPC = 4.7%, p < 0.05). Changes in the direction of the total mortality rate trend were visible in the population of boys aged 1-14 years, in which, between 2003 and 2010, a significant reduction in mortality (AAPC = 9.5%) was observed, while in the years 2010-2012 the trend was not significant. No statistical evidence was found that mortality changed among girls in the 1-14-year-old and 15-19-year-old age groups. Deaths in infancy were due to perinatal conditions and congenital mal- formations. The main causes of mortality in the 1-19-year-old age group were external causes, mainly traffic accidents and intentional self-harm. Joinpoint regression indicated a uniform decrease of mortality in the years 2003-2012 except for boys from 1-14 years old, for whom the decreasing trend was for the years 2003-2010 with subsequent stabilization. The main problems are still infant deaths due to perinatal conditions, traffic accidents and intentional self-harm in boys in the 15-19-year-old age group.

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 164-172
Author(s):  
Budiman Yunus ◽  
Suwarni ◽  
Basse Siang Parawansa

This study aims to determine the population dynamics of tuna including age group, growth, mortality, exploitation rate and yield per recruitment. It was conducted from June to August in West Waters of South Sulawesi. By method of age group using Bhattacharya method with FAO-ICLARM Fish Stock Assessment Tools II (FISAT II) program, growth using Von Bertalanffy’s equation, natural mortality (M) using Pauly’s empirical equation, total mortality (Z) using Beverton and Holt’s equations, fishing mortality (F) by the formula Z = F + M, exploitation (E) using Baverton and Holt’s equations and yield per recruitment (Y/R’) using Baverton and Holt’s equations. The results of research of tuna observed were 737 includes 355 male tunas and 382 female tunas. The estimation of total length ranging from 215 mm to 429 mm. Male tunas are classified into 4 (four) of age groups with a length of 236.67, 272.8, 326.04 and 375.53 mm, respectively. Asymptote length (L∞) = 455.00 mm, growth coefficient (K) = 0.33 and theoretical age (t0) of -0.2377 per year. Total mortality rate (Z) = 1.12 per year. Natural mortality (M) = 0.41 per year, fishing mortality (F) = 0.71, exploitation (E) = 0.63 and yield per recruitment (Y/R’) = 0.0691, while male tunas are classified into 5 (five) of age groups with a length of 235.73, 272.86, 326.89, 360.89 and 408.89 mm, respectively. Asymptote length (L∞) = 453.50 mm, growth coefficient (K) = 0.42 and theoretical age (t0) of -0.1853 per year. Total mortality rate (Z) = 1.35 per year. Natural mortality (M) = 0.48 per year, fishing mortality (F) = 0.87, exploitation (E) = 0.64 and yield per recruitment (Y/R’) = 0.0784. Thus, it can be concluded that tuna in West Waters of South Sulawesi have declined and thought occur overfishing.


2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson ◽  
Carla Lourenço Tavares de Andrade ◽  
Cleber Nascimento do Carmo ◽  
Dennys de Souza Mourão ◽  
Sandra de Souza Hacon

The aim of this study was to analyze the trend in mortality due to external causes in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 1994 to 2005, according to specific groups (traffic injuries, poisoning, intentional self-harm, assault), age group and gender. The trend analysis was performed with polynomial regression models, based on data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System. For all external causes, the trend was not statistically significant, but when it was stratified by gender and age group the results showed a downward trend in some strata. According to gender, the yearly increase in mortality rate was higher for men. In general, this increase was observed in all age groups. For traffic injuries, there was a decrease in the mortality rate, mainly for men. There was a decrease in deaths from poisoning for both men and women. Intentional self-harm showed an upward trend, especially for 50 and over age group. As a specific group, assault also showed a significant upward trend for under-34 age groups and for men.


Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Miodrag M. Stojanovic ◽  
Natasa K. Rancic ◽  
Marija R. Andjelkovic Apostolovic ◽  
Aleksandra M. Ignjatovic ◽  
Mirko V. Ilic

Somach cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The objective of the paper was to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of stomach cancer in Central Serbia in the period between 1999–2017. Materials and Methods: trends and annual percentage change (APC) of the incidence and mortality rate with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by joinpoint regression analyses. The optimal number of Joinpoints was identified using the Monte Carlo permutation method. The trend was considered to be significantly increasing (positive change) or decreasing (negative change) when the p-value was below 0.05 (p < 0.05). Results: the total number of new cases was 16,914 (10,873 males and 6041 females) and the total number of mortality cases was 14,790 (9348 in and 5442 in females). Almost one third (30.8%) of new cases were registered in the 60–69-year age group, and new cases were significantly more frequent in males than in females (30.8% vs. 29.02%, p < 0.001). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decrease of incidence trend in females during the 2000–2015 period with APC of −2.13% (95% CI: −3.8 to −0.5, p < 0.001). An insignificant decrease in incidence trend was in males with APC of −0.72% (95% CI: −2.3 to 0.9, p = 0.30). According to the joinpoint analysis, a significant decrease of mortality trends both in males during 2000–2015 with APC of −2.21% (95% CI: −1.6 to −7.5, p ≤ 0.001 and in females, during the same period, with APC of −1.75% (95% CI: −2.9 to −0.6, p < 0.001) was registered. From 2015 to 2017, a significant increase of mortality was registered with APC of 44.5% (95% CI: from 24.2 to −68.1, p ≤ 0.001) in females and in males with APC of 53.15% (95% CI: 13.5 to −106.6, p ≤ 0.001). Conclusion: a significant decrease of stomach cancer incidence trend in females and insignificant decrease of incidence trend in males were determined in Central Serbia. Based on presented results, the mortality trend decreased significantly both in males and in females during 2000–2015, and from 2015 to 2017 we recorded a significant increase in mortality in both sexes. We found significantly more new cases in women than in men in the age group of 40–49, and the mortality of stomach cancer was significantly more frequent among females compared to males in the age groups 30–39, as well as in the 50–59 age group. There is a need for improving recording and registration of new cases of stomach cancer, especially in females. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed—introducing stomach cancer screening and early detection of premalignant changes. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed.


Author(s):  
Maha Ibrahim Metwally ◽  
Mohammad Abd Alkhalik Basha ◽  
Mohamed M. A. Zaitoun ◽  
Housseini Mohamed Abdalla ◽  
Hanaa Abu Elazayem Nofal ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Since the announcement of COVID-19 as a pandemic infection, several studies have been performed to discuss the clinical picture, laboratory finding, and imaging features of this disease. The aim of this study is to demarcate the imaging features of novel coronavirus infected pneumonia (NCIP) in different age groups and outline the relation between radiological aspect, including CT severity, and clinical aspect, including age, oxygen saturation, and fatal outcome. We implemented a prospective observational study enrolled 299 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients (169 males and 130 females; age range = 2–91 years; mean age = 38.4 ± 17.2). All patients were submitted to chest CT with multi-planar reconstruction. The imaging features of NCIP in different age groups were described. The relations between CT severity and age, oxygen saturation, and fatal outcome were evaluated. Results The most predominant CT features were bilateral (75.4%), posterior (66.3%), pleural-based (93.5%), lower lobe involvement (89.8%), and ground-glass opacity (94.7%). ROC curve analysis revealed that the optimal cutoff age that was highly exposed to moderate and severe stages of NCIP was 38 years old (AUC = 0.77, p < 0.001). NCIP was noted in 42.6% below 40-year-old age group compared to 84% above 40-year-old age group. The CT severity was significantly related to age and fatal outcome (p < 0.001). Anterior, centrilobular, hilar, apical, and middle lobe involvements had a significant relation to below 90% oxygen saturation. A significant negative correlation was found between CT severity and oxygen saturation (r = − 0.49, p < 0.001). Crazy-paving pattern, anterior aspect, hilar, centrilobular involvement, and moderate and severe stages had a statistically significant relation to higher mortality. Conclusion The current study confirmed the value of CT as a prognostic predictor in NCIP through demonstration of the strong relation between CT severity and age, oxygen saturation, and the fatal outcome. In the era of COVID-19 pandemic, this study is considered to be an extension to other studies discussing chest CT features of COVID-19 in different age groups with demarcation of the relation of chest CT severity to different pattern and distribution of NCIP, age, oxygen saturation, and mortality rate.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuhiro Nagahama ◽  
Tomoko Okina ◽  
Norio Suzuki

Background/Aims: To examine the influence of age on neuropsychological performances in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Alzheimer disease (AD) patients. Methods: We examined memory, executive, and visuo-constructional performances in 202 DLB patients and 236 AD patients. We divided the subjects into three age groups (65–74, 75–84, and 85–95 years old), and evaluated the differences in neuropsychological performances. Results: Recent memory in the DLB group was significantly better than that in the age-matched AD group when comparing the age groups 65–74 years and 75–84 years; however, memory impairment in the DLB patients in the age group 85–95 years was comparable with that in the age-matched AD patients. In contrast to recent memory, the other assessed neuropsychological performances, such as visuospatial and executive functions, showed no significant change in differences between the DLB and AD groups with advancing age. Conclusion: Our study revealed that the nature of memory impairment in DLB patients changes according to age. DLB patients in the young-old and old-old age groups showed significantly better memory performance than the age-matched AD patients, whereas memory performance of the DLB patients in the oldest-old age group was similar to that of the age-matched AD patients. This may be associated with the increased rate of coexisting AD pathology in DLB patients with older age.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Okto Supratman ◽  
Tati Suryati Syamsudin

AbstractDog Conch (Strombus turturella) has an essential economic value in Bangka Belitung Islands. Allegedly, the population of Dog Conch is decreasing due to overexploitation. The purpose of this study is to provide information related to the distribution of long frequency, growth pattern, age group, recruitment time estimation and life table of Dog Conch. This research took place on the coast of Tukak Village and Anak Air Island, Bangka Belitung Islands. Samples of Dog Conch were taken using 3x3 m2 square. The shell length of Dog Conch found ranged between 18.18 to 77.49 mm, consisting of three age groups. Asymptotic length value (L∞), growth coefficient (K) and theoretical age on zero-length (t0) were 83.94 mm, 0.79/year and -0.152 sequentially. In the first year, Dog Conch grows to 50.18 mm and slows down when it grows older until it is 13 years old. The proportion of high mortality rate was at 1 to 2 years old and 3 to 4 years old or in adult individuals, while the highest life expectancy rate was in the age group of 0-1-year old or young individuals. It indicated that the high mortality rate was in the group in which people use to consume or sell in the marketsAbstrakSiput gonggong (Strombus turturella) memiliki nilai ekonomis penting di Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Diduga populasi siput gonggong semakin menurun akibat dari eksploitasi berlebihan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk memberikan informasi terkait distribusi frekuensi panjang, pola pertumbuhan, kelompok umur, estimasi waktu rekruitmen dan tabel hidup siput gonggong. Lokasi penelitian berada di Pesisir Desa Tukak dan Pulau Anak Air, Kepulauan Bangka Belitung.Pengambilan sampel siput gonggong dilakukan dengan menggunakan kuadrat 3x3 m2. Panjang cangkang siput gonggong yang ditemukan berkisar antara 18.18 s.d 77.49 mm yang terdiri atas 3 kelompok umur. Nilai panjang asymptotic (L∞), koefisien pertumbuhan (K) dan umur teoritis ketika panjang sama dengan nol (t0) adalah 83.94 mm, 0.79/tahun dan -0.152 secara berurutan. Pada tahun pertama siput gonggong mengalami pertumbuhan, mencapai 50.18 mm dan melambat ketika umur semakin tua hingga umur 13 tahun. Proporsi laju kematian tinggi terdapat pada umur 1 s.d 2 tahun dan 3 s.d 4 tahun atau pada individu dewasa, sedangkan nilai harapan hidup tertinggi terdapat pada kelompok umur 0-1 tahun atau individu muda. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kematian tertinggi terdapat pada kelompok umur yang telah diambil oleh masyarakat untuk dikonsumsi dan dijual ke pasaran.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Sidney ◽  
Sadiya S Khan ◽  
Yariv Gerber ◽  
Donald M Lloyd-jones ◽  
Alan S Go ◽  
...  

Introduction: In 2011, the number of deaths with an underlying cause of heart disease (HD) reached its lowest level in 56 years. However, there has subsequently been a steady increase in the annual number of total HD deaths, owing to a rapid increase (23%) in the size of the population ≥65 years of age in the U.S. To understand these trends, we sought to characterize differences between 2005-2011 and 2011-2017 in population and mortality by age subgroups among those ≥65 years. Methods: We determined age-specific population size, HD mortality rate, and absolute number of HD deaths in the ≥65 age group for the time periods 2005-2011 and 2011-2017, as well as for the <65 years age group, using the CDC WONDER online data set. Results: Age-specific population growth was greatest among those 65-74 years between 2005-2011 and 2011-2017, representing 76% of the total population growth among those ≥65 years old in both time periods (Table) and 51% of the growth for the entire population from 2011-2017. From 2005-2011, decreases in the mortality rate of 20% or greater in each of the age subgroups (65-74, 75-84, 85+) resulted in a decline in the number of total HD deaths in each of the age groups in spite of substantial population increases in the 65-74 and 85+ age groups. However, subsequent changes in the age-specific mortality rate among those ≥65 years were lower than population increases from 2011-2017, resulting in an increased number of total HD deaths in all > 65 years age subgroups. This was most notable among those age 65-74 years in whom the 32% population increase with a 1.5% decline in the mortality rate resulted in a 30% increase in the number of HD deaths, representing 61.3% of the increase in number of HD deaths in the 65+ years age group and 53% of the increase of HD deaths in all age groups from 2011-2017. Conclusions: The rapid growth of the 65-74 years age group (baby boomers) accounts for most of the population growth in the ≥65 years age group and more than half the increase in both total population growth and the total number of HD deaths from 2011-2017.


2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S103-S109
Author(s):  
Harish Verma ◽  
Zubairu Iliyasu ◽  
Kehinde T Craig ◽  
Natalie A Molodecky ◽  
Utibeabasi Urua ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Kano state has been a protracted reservoir of poliovirus in Nigeria. Immunity trends have been monitored through seroprevalence surveys since 2011. The survey in 2015 was, in addition, intended to assess the impact of use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). Methods It was a health facility based seroprevalence survey. Eligible children aged 6-9, 12-15 and 19-22 months of age brought to the paediatrics outpatient department of Murtala Mohammad Specialist Hospital between 19 October and 6 November 2015, were screened for eligibility. Eligible children were enrolled after parental consent, history taken, physical examination conducted, and a blood sample collected to test for neutralizing antibody titres against the three poliovirus serotypes. Results Overall, 365 results were available in the three age groups. In the 6-9-month-old age group, the seroprevalence was 73% (95% confidence interval [CI] 64-80%), 83% (95% CI 75-88%), and 66% (95% CI 57-73%) for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In the 12-15- and 19-22-month-old age groups, seroprevalence was higher but still remained <90% across serotypes. Seroprevalence to serotypes 1 and 3 in 2015 was similar to 2014; however, for serotype 2 there was a significant improvement. IPV received in supplemental immunization activities was found to be a significant predictor of seropositivity among 6-9-month-old infants for serotypes 1 and 2. Conclusions Seroprevalence for serotypes 1 and 3 remains low (<80%) in 6-9-month-olds. This poses a significant risk for poliovirus spread if reintroduced into the population. Efforts to strengthen immunization coverage are imperative to secure and sustain high population immunity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fangio FERRARI ◽  
Elisa Cantú Germano DUTRA ◽  
Henrieli Correia ZANARDI ◽  
Bruno Lorenzo SCOLARO ◽  
Odemari Miranda FERRARI

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The bacterium Helicobacter pylori is strongly associated with the development of gastric adenocarcinoma. Currently, the prevalence in developed countries is 40%, but this value increases considerably in developing countries, which can reach rates bigger than 90%. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the mean and annual prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in patients from Itajaí during the period from July 1992 to April 2016, as well as the gender and age groups most affected. METHODS: After consent of the clinical director of the Gastroclinica Itajaí and confidentiality commitment about the research, the database of the Endoscopy Service of the clinic was evaluated. All the patients who underwent their first upper digestive endoscopy with urease test and/or histological analysis were included. The data were submitted to statistical analysis of prevalence by gender, age group and years of study, with subsequent correction through the confidence interval. RESULTS: The mean prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection thru all years of study was 50.07%. With the calculation of the annual prevalences, it was evident the gradual reduction of infection in the population of Itajaí, that was 81.3% in 1992, declining to 33% in the year of 2016. When classifying the prevalence of infection by gender, it was higher in males (53.59%), and gender distribution by age group showed no statistically significant difference among genders between the ages of 40 and 80 years. In relation to the age group, the highest prevalence was in the group between 40 and 49 years. CONCLUSION: Although this study is retrospective and based on endoscopic database analysis, without access to clinical data of patients such as prior use of proton pump inhibitor and antibiotics to endoscopy, its results are important because they may reflect the current panorama of Helicobacter pylori infection in the city under study, where it has been presenting a gradual reduction of prevalence over the years, with current rates similar to that of developed countries (33%). Future studies are needed to confirm our data.


2008 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. GEI.S944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Struan F.A. Grant ◽  
Mingyao Li ◽  
Jonathan P. Bradfield ◽  
Cecilia E. Kim ◽  
Kiran Annaiah ◽  
...  

Background Recently an association was demonstrated between the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs1042725, within the HMGA2 locus and height as a consequence of a genome wide association (GWA) study of this trait in adults; this observation was also reported in children aged 7–11 years old. Objective We examined in our Caucasian childhood cohort the effects of two strong surrogates for this SNP at this locus with height, rs8756 and rs7968902, with respect to the same pediatric age category but also in children grouped separately as younger and older. Methods Utilizing data from an ongoing GWA study in our cohort of 2,619 Caucasian children with measurements for height, we investigated the association of the previously reported variation at the HMGA2 locus with this height treated as a quantitative trait (age and sex corrected) in childhood in the 2–6 (n = 706), 7–11 (n = 617) and 12–18 (n = 1293) years old categories. Results The minor alleles of rs8756 and rs7968902 respectively (strong surrogates for rs1042725 i.e. r 2 = 0.873 and 0.761 in the CEU HapMap respectively) were significantly associated with height in the 7–11 years old age group ( P = 3.53 × 10–3 and 2.82 × 10–4, respectively) However in the 2–6 and 12–18 years old age groups, no association was observed. Conclusions We observe a strong association with height in same age group of 7–11 years old as has been previously reported. However, in the under 7s and the over 11s, no such association was observed.


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