scholarly journals Estrus Prediction Models for Dairy Gyr Heifers

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3103
Author(s):  
Valesca Vilela Andrade ◽  
Priscila Arrigucci Bernardes ◽  
Rogério Ribeiro Vicentini ◽  
André Penido Oliveira ◽  
Renata Veroneze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Mixed Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Estrus Synchronization ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Rumen Temperature ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Humidity Index ◽  
Analysis Models

Technological devices are increasingly present in livestock activities, such as identifying the reproductive status of cows. For this, predictive models must be accurate and usable in the productive context. The aims of this study were to evaluate estrus-associated changes in reticulo-rumen temperature (RRT) and activity (ACT) in Dairy Gyr heifers provided by reticulo-rumen boluses and to test the ability of different models for estrus prediction. The RRT and ACT of 45 heifers submitted to estrus synchronization were recorded using reticulo-rumen boluses. The means of RRT and ACT at different time intervals were compared between the day before and the day of estrus manifestation. An analysis of variance of RRT and ACT was performed using mixed models. A second approach employed logistic regression, random forest, and linear discriminant analysis models using RRT, ACT, time of day, and the temperature-humidity index (THI) as predictors. There was an increase in RRT and ACT at estrus (p < 0.05) compared to the same period on the day before and on the day after estrus. The random forest model provided the best performance values with a sensitivity of 51.69% and specificity of 93.1%. The present results suggest that RRT and ACT contribute to the identification of estrus in Dairy Gyr heifers.

Development of Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Algorithms for Girls with Suspected Central Precocious Puberty: Retrospective Study (Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyan Pan ◽  
Guangjian Liu ◽  
Xiaojian Mao ◽  
Huixian Li ◽  
Jiexin Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Precocious Puberty ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Central Precocious Puberty ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Stimulation Test ◽  
Gnrh Analogue ◽  
Prediction Probability

BACKGROUND Central precocious puberty (CPP) in girls seriously affects their physical and mental development in childhood. The method of diagnosis—gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH)–stimulation test or GnRH analogue (GnRHa)–stimulation test—is expensive and makes patients uncomfortable due to the need for repeated blood sampling. OBJECTIVE We aimed to combine multiple CPP–related features and construct machine learning models to predict response to the GnRHa-stimulation test. METHODS In this retrospective study, we analyzed clinical and laboratory data of 1757 girls who underwent a GnRHa test in order to develop XGBoost and random forest classifiers for prediction of response to the GnRHa test. The local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) algorithm was used with the black-box classifiers to increase their interpretability. We measured sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of the models. RESULTS Both the XGBoost and random forest models achieved good performance in distinguishing between positive and negative responses, with the AUC ranging from 0.88 to 0.90, sensitivity ranging from 77.91% to 77.94%, and specificity ranging from 84.32% to 87.66%. Basal serum luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, and insulin-like growth factor-I levels were found to be the three most important factors. In the interpretable models of LIME, the abovementioned variables made high contributions to the prediction probability. CONCLUSIONS The prediction models we developed can help diagnose CPP and may be used as a prescreening tool before the GnRHa-stimulation test.

scholarly journals Machine Learning in Aging: An Example of Developing Prediction Models for Serious Fall Injury in Older Adults

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 268-269
Author(s):  
Jaime Speiser ◽  
Kathryn Callahan ◽  
Jason Fanning ◽  
Thomas Gill ◽  
Anne Newman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Life Study ◽  
Fall Injury ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Advances in computational algorithms and the availability of large datasets with clinically relevant characteristics provide an opportunity to develop machine learning prediction models to aid in diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of older adults. Some studies have employed machine learning methods for prediction modeling, but skepticism of these methods remains due to lack of reproducibility and difficulty understanding the complex algorithms behind models. We aim to provide an overview of two common machine learning methods: decision tree and random forest. We focus on these methods because they provide a high degree of interpretability. We discuss the underlying algorithms of decision tree and random forest methods and present a tutorial for developing prediction models for serious fall injury using data from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) study. Decision tree is a machine learning method that produces a model resembling a flow chart. Random forest consists of a collection of many decision trees whose results are aggregated. In the tutorial example, we discuss evaluation metrics and interpretation for these models. Illustrated in data from the LIFE study, prediction models for serious fall injury were moderate at best (area under the receiver operating curve of 0.54 for decision tree and 0.66 for random forest). Machine learning methods may offer improved performance compared to traditional models for modeling outcomes in aging, but their use should be justified and output should be carefully described. Models should be assessed by clinical experts to ensure compatibility with clinical practice.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Air Quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 9151
Author(s):  
Yun-Chia Liang ◽  
Yona Maimury ◽  
Angela Hsiang-Ling Chen ◽  
Josue Rodolfo Cuevas Juarez
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Adaptive Boosting ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Air, an essential natural resource, has been compromised in terms of quality by economic activities. Considerable research has been devoted to predicting instances of poor air quality, but most studies are limited by insufficient longitudinal data, making it difficult to account for seasonal and other factors. Several prediction models have been developed using an 11-year dataset collected by Taiwan’s Environmental Protection Administration (EPA). Machine learning methods, including adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest, stacking ensemble, and support vector machine (SVM), produce promising results for air quality index (AQI) level predictions. A series of experiments, using datasets for three different regions to obtain the best prediction performance from the stacking ensemble, AdaBoost, and random forest, found the stacking ensemble delivers consistently superior performance for R2 and RMSE, while AdaBoost provides best results for MAE.

scholarly journals Ripeness Prediction of Postharvest Kiwifruit Using a MOS E-Nose Combined with Chemometrics

Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongdong Du ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Bo Wang ◽  
Luyi Zhu ◽  
Xuezhen Hong
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Extraction Methods ◽  
Oxide Semiconductor ◽  
Soluble Solids ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Ripe Stage

Postharvest kiwifruit continues to ripen for a period until it reaches the optimal “eating ripe” stage. Without damaging the fruit, it is very difficult to identify the ripeness of postharvest kiwifruit by conventional means. In this study, an electronic nose (E-nose) with 10 metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) gas sensors was used to predict the ripeness of postharvest kiwifruit. Three different feature extraction methods (the max/min values, the difference values and the 70th s values) were employed to discriminate kiwifruit at different ripening times by linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and results showed that the 70th s values method had the best performance in discriminating kiwifruit at different ripening stages, obtaining a 100% original accuracy rate and a 99.4% cross-validation accuracy rate. Partial least squares regression (PLSR), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) were employed to build prediction models for overall ripeness, soluble solids content (SSC) and firmness. The regression results showed that the RF algorithm had the best performance in predicting the ripeness indexes of postharvest kiwifruit compared with PLSR and SVM, which illustrated that the E-nose data had high correlations with overall ripeness (training: R2 = 0.9928; testing: R2 = 0.9928), SSC (training: R2 = 0.9749; testing: R2 = 0.9143) and firmness (training: R2 = 0.9814; testing: R2 = 0.9290). This study demonstrated that E-nose could be a comprehensive approach to predict the ripeness of postharvest kiwifruit through aroma volatiles.

scholarly journals Multiscale Supervised Classification of Point Clouds with Urban and Forest Applications

Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 4523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Cabo ◽  
Celestino Ordóñez ◽  
Fernando Sáchez-Lasheras ◽  
Javier Roca-Pardiñas ◽  
and Javier de Cos-Juez
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Laser Scanning ◽  
Supervised Classification ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Point Clouds ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
Input Variables

We analyze the utility of multiscale supervised classification algorithms for object detection and extraction from laser scanning or photogrammetric point clouds. Only the geometric information (the point coordinates) was considered, thus making the method independent of the systems used to collect the data. A maximum of five features (input variables) was used, four of them related to the eigenvalues obtained from a principal component analysis (PCA). PCA was carried out at six scales, defined by the diameter of a sphere around each observation. Four multiclass supervised classification models were tested (linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, and random forest) in two different scenarios, urban and forest, formed by artificial and natural objects, respectively. The results obtained were accurate (overall accuracy over 80% for the urban dataset, and over 93% for the forest dataset), in the range of the best results found in the literature, regardless of the classification method. For both datasets, the random forest algorithm provided the best solution/results when discrimination capacity, computing time, and the ability to estimate the relative importance of each variable are considered together.

Comparative study for deriving stagedischarge– sediment concentration relationships using soft computing techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (104) ◽  
pp. 57-76
Author(s):  
P. Sihag ◽  
M.R. Sadikhani ◽  
V. Vambol ◽  
S. Vambol ◽  
A.K. Prabhakar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Soft Computing ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Hydro Power ◽  
Input Combination ◽  
Soft Computing Techniques

Purpose: Knowledge of sediment load carried by any river is essential for designing and planning of hydro power and irrigation projects. So the aim of this study is to develop and evaluating the best soft-computing-based model with M5P and Random Forest regressionbased techniques for computation of sediment using datasets of daily discharge, daily gauge and sediment load at the Champua gauging site of the Upper Baitarani river basin of India. Design/methodology/approach: Last few decades, the soft computing techniques based models have been successfully used in water resources modelling and estimation. In this study, the potential of tree based models are examined by developing and comparing sediment load prediction models, based on M5P tree and Random forest regression (RF). Several M5P and RF based models have been applied to a gauging site of the Baitarani River at Odisha, India. To evaluate the performance of the selected M5P and RF-based models, three most popular statistical parameters are selected such as coefficient of correlation, root mean square error and mean absolute error. Findings: A comparison of the results suggested that RF-based model could be applied successfully for the prediction of sediment load concentration with a relatively higher magnitude of prediction accuracy. In RF-based models Qt, Q(t-1), Q(t-2), S(t-1), S(t-2), Ht and H(t-1) combination based M10 model work superior than other combination based models. Another major outcome of this investigation is Qt, Q(t-1) and S(t-1) based model M4 works better than other input combination based models using M5P technique. The optimum input combination is Qt, Q(t-1) and S(t-1) for the prediction of sediment load concentration of the Baitarani River at Odisha, India. Research limitations/implications: The developed models were tested for Baitarani River at Odisha, India.

scholarly journals Early Prediction of Multiple Organ Dysfunction in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjukta N. Bose ◽  
Joseph L. Greenstein ◽  
James C. Fackler ◽  
Sridevi V. Sarma ◽  
Raimond L. Winslow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Organ Dysfunction ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Pediatric Intensive Care ◽  
Multiple Organ ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Early Prediction

Objective: The objective of the study is to build models for early prediction of risk for developing multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients.Design: The design of the study is a retrospective observational cohort study.Setting: The setting of the study is at a single academic PICU at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD.Patients: The patients included in the study were &lt;18 years of age admitted to the PICU between July 2014 and October 2015.Measurements and main results: Organ dysfunction labels were generated every minute from preceding 24-h time windows using the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) and Proulx et al. MOD criteria. Early MOD prediction models were built using four machine learning methods: random forest, XGBoost, GLMBoost, and Lasso-GLM. An optimal threshold learned from training data was used to detect high-risk alert events (HRAs). The early prediction models from all methods achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ≥0.91 for both IPSCC and Proulx criteria. The best performance in terms of maximum F1-score was achieved with random forest (sensitivity: 0.72, positive predictive value: 0.70, F1-score: 0.71) and XGBoost (sensitivity: 0.8, positive predictive value: 0.81, F1-score: 0.81) for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. The median early warning time was 22.7 h for random forest and 37 h for XGBoost models for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. Applying spectral clustering on risk-score trajectories over 24 h following early warning provided a high-risk group with ≥0.93 positive predictive value.Conclusions: Early predictions from risk-based patient monitoring could provide more than 22 h of lead time for MOD onset, with ≥0.93 positive predictive value for a high-risk group identified pre-MOD.

scholarly journals Algorithmic and data modeling: Will algorithmic modeling improve predictions of traits evaluated on ordinal scales?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanyou Xu ◽  
Andreomar Kurek ◽  
Steven B. Cannon ◽  
Williams D. Beavis
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Ridge Regression ◽  
Genomic Prediction ◽  
Ordinal Data ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Types

AbstractSelection of markers linked to alleles at quantitative trait loci (QTL) for tolerance to Iron Deficiency Chlorosis (IDC) has not been successful. Genomic selection has been advocated for continuous numeric traits such as yield and plant height. For ordinal data types such as IDC, genomic prediction models have not been systematically compared. The objectives of research reported in this manuscript were to evaluate the most commonly used genomic prediction method, ridge regression and it’s equivalent logistic ridge regression method, with algorithmic modeling methods including random forest, gradient boosting, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, Naïve Bayes, and artificial neural network using the usual comparator metric of prediction accuracy. In addition we compared the methods using metrics of greater importance for decisions about selecting and culling lines for use in variety development and genetic improvement projects. These metrics include specificity, sensitivity, precision, decision accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We found that Support Vector Machine provided the best specificity for culling IDC susceptible lines, while Random Forest GP models provided the best combined set of decision metrics for retaining IDC tolerant and culling IDC susceptible lines.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-based in-hospital Mortality Prediction Models for Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ke ◽  
Yiwei Chen ◽  
Xiaoping Wang ◽  
Zhiyong Wu ◽  
qiongyao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
Coronary Syndrome

Abstract BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to evaluate the performance of traditional regression and machine learning prediction models.MethodsThe data of ACS patients who entered the emergency department of Fujian Provincial Hospital from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020 for chest pain were retrospectively collected. The study used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality of ACS patients. The traditional regression and machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models, and the sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each model.ResultsA total of 7810 ACS patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.75%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that age and levels of D-dimer, cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and calcium channel blockers were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The study found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the models developed by logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality were 0.963, 0.960, 0.963, and 0.959, respectively. Feature importance evaluation found that NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol were top three variables that contribute the most to the prediction performance of the GBDT model and random forest model.ConclusionsThe predictive model developed using logistic regression, GBDT, random forest, and SVM algorithms can be used to predict the risk of in-hospital death of ACS patients. Based on our findings, we recommend that clinicians focus on monitoring the changes of NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol, as this may improve the clinical outcomes of ACS patients.

scholarly journals Cytokine signature and COVID-19 prediction models in the two waves of pandemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Cabaro ◽  
Vittoria D’Esposito ◽  
Tiziana Di Matola ◽  
Silvia Sale ◽  
Michele Cennamo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Classification And Regression Tree ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Diagnosis And Prognosis ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractIn Europe, multiple waves of infections with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) have been observed. Here, we have investigated whether common patterns of cytokines could be detected in individuals with mild and severe forms of COVID-19 in two pandemic waves, and whether machine learning approach could be useful to identify the best predictors. An increasing trend of multiple cytokines was observed in patients with mild or severe/critical symptoms of COVID-19, compared with healthy volunteers. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) clearly recognized the three groups based on cytokine patterns. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) further indicated that IL-6 discriminated controls and COVID-19 patients, whilst IL-8 defined disease severity. During the second wave of pandemics, a less intense cytokine storm was observed, as compared with the first. IL-6 was the most robust predictor of infection and discriminated moderate COVID-19 patients from healthy controls, regardless of epidemic peak curve. Thus, serum cytokine patterns provide biomarkers useful for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. Further definition of individual cytokines may allow to envision novel therapeutic options and pave the way to set up innovative diagnostic tools.

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