scholarly journals Predicting Current Potential Distribution and the Range Dynamics of Pomacea canaliculata in China under Global Climate Change

Biology ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Yingxuan Yin ◽  
Qing He ◽  
Xiaowen Pan ◽  
Qiyong Liu ◽  
Yinjuan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Social Economy ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Pomacea Canaliculata ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Recent Climate

Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of P. canaliculata. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.

scholarly journals Total Ozone Trends in East Asia from Long-Term Satellite and Ground Observations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 982
Author(s):  
Daegeun Shin ◽  
Young-Suk Oh ◽  
Wonick Seo ◽  
Chu-Yong Chung ◽  
Ja-Ho Koo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mlr Model

The ozone concentration in the atmosphere has been recovering with the reduction in atmospheric ozone-depleting substances (ODS). However, ODS remain in the atmosphere for long periods, slowing recovery. Furthermore, greenhouse gas-induced climate change complicates ozone recovery. East Asia is a significant contributor to global climate change due to the increase in industrialization and the presence of complex climate conditions. We investigated ozone variations in East Asia using total column ozone data based on satellite and ground observations and compared the results and trends derived from a multi-linear regression (MLR) model. We found that the MLR model has relatively poor explanatory power for recent extraterrestrial and dynamical proxies, but the uncertainty can be reduced using monthly data and atmospheric proxies. The ozone trend in East Asia had the greatest increase in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria from 1997 to 2017 (~1% per decade). Similarly, the trend derived from Brewer spectrophotometer data was 1.02 ± 1.45% per decade in Pohang and 1.27 ± 0.85% per decade in Seoul. When the analysis period was extended to 2020, the impact of atmospheric variability was greater, suggesting that recent climate change can increasingly contribute to total ozone variability.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

FOOD SECURITY IN RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-65
Author(s):  
Maria Polozhikhina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Crimean Peninsula ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Crimean Peninsula

Climate conditions remain one of the main risk factors for domestic agriculture, and the consequences of global climate change are ambiguous in terms of prospects for agricultural production in Russia. This paper analyzes the impact of climate change on the country’s food security from the point of view of its self-sufficiency in grain primarily. Specific conditions prevailing on the Crimean peninsula are also considered.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants in estuarine organisms

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie E. Delorenzo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Life Stage ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
Chemical Contaminants ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mechanisms Of Toxicity ◽  
Estuarine Species ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Global climate change effects will vary geographically, and effects on estuaries should be independently considered. This review of the impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants aims to summarize responses that are specific to estuarine species. Estuarine organisms are uniquely adapted to large fluctuations in temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH, and yet future changes in climate may make them more susceptible to chemical contaminants. Recent research has highlighted the interactive effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors on chemical uptake, metabolism, and organism survival. Assessments have revealed that the nature of the interaction between climate variables and chemical pollution will depend on estuarine species and life stage, duration and timing of exposure, prior stressor exposure, and contaminant class. A need for further research to elucidate mechanisms of toxicity under different abiotic conditions and to incorporate climate change factors into toxicity testing was identified. These efforts will improve environmental risk assessment of chemical contaminants and management capabilities under changing climate conditions.

Environmental Degradation, Tropical Diseases, and Economic Development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Luke Gallup
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Tropical Diseases ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

It’s complicated. Tropical diseases have unusually intricate life cycles because most of them involve not only a human host and a pathogen, but also a vector host. The diseases are predominantly tropical due to their sensitivity to local ecology, usually due to the vector organism. The differences between the tropical diseases mean that they respond to environmental degradation in various ways that depend on local conditions. Urbanization and water pollution tend to limit malaria, but deforestation and dams can exacerbate malaria and schistosomiasis. Global climate change, the largest environmental change, will likely extend the range of tropical climate conditions to higher elevations and near the limits of the tropics, spreading some diseases, but will make other areas too dry or hot for the vectors. Nonetheless, the geographical range of tropical diseases will be primarily determined by public health efforts more than climate. Early predictions that malaria will spread widely because of climate change were flawed, and control efforts will probably cause it to diminish further. The impact of human disease on economic development is hard to pin down with confidence. It may be substantial, or it may be misattributed to other influences. A mechanism by which tropical disease may have large development consequences is its deleterious effects on the cognitive development of infants, which makes them less productive throughout their lives.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Dan-Dan Yu ◽  
Shan Li ◽  
Zhong-Yang Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

scholarly journals Climate extremes, variability, and trade shape biogeographical patterns of alien species

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuan Liu ◽  
Jason R Rohr ◽  
Xianping Li ◽  
Teng Deng ◽  
Wenhao Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Alien Species ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Unique Variation

Abstract Understanding how alien species assemble is crucial for predicting changes to community structure caused by biological invasions and for directing management strategies for alien species, but patterns and drivers of alien species assemblages remain poorly understood relative to native species. Climate has been suggested as a crucial filter of invasion-driven homogenization of biodiversity. However, it remains unclear which climatic factors drive the assemblage of alien species. Here, we compiled global data at both grid scale (2,653 native and 2,806 current grids with a resolution of 2° × 2°) and administrative scale (271 native and 297 current nations and sub-nations) on the distributions of 361 alien amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna), the most threatened vertebrate group on the planet. We found that geographical distance, a proxy for natural dispersal barriers, was the dominant variable contributing to alien herpetofaunal assemblage in native ranges. In contrast, climatic factors explained more unique variation in alien herpetofaunal assemblage after than before invasions. This pattern was driven by extremely high temperatures and precipitation seasonality, 2 hallmarks of global climate change, and bilateral trade which can account for the alien assemblage after invasions. Our results indicated that human-assisted species introductions combined with climate change may accelerate the reorganization of global species distributions.

scholarly journals Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1429-1445 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Trail ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
P. Liu ◽  
K. Tsigaridis ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ya Zou ◽  
Linjing Zhang ◽  
Xuezhen Ge ◽  
Siwei Guo ◽  
Xue Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Future Global Warming

The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.

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