scholarly journals Determination of the Probabilities of Landslide Events—A Case Study of Bhutan

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raju Sarkar ◽  
Kelzang Dorji
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
National Capital ◽  
Trade Route ◽  
The Relationship

Landslides have been and are prominent and devastating natural disasters in Bhutan due to its orography and intense monsoonal rainfall. The damage caused by landslides is huge, causing significant loss of lives, damage to infrastructure and loss of agricultural land. Several methods have been developed to understand the relationship between rainfall and landslide incidences. The most common method to understand the relationship is by defining thresholds using empirical methods which are expressed in either intensity-duration or event rainfall-duration terms. However, such thresholds determine the results in a binary form which may not be useful for landslide cases. Apart from defining thresholds, it is significant to validate the results. The article attempts to address both these issues by adopting a probabilistic approach and validating the results. The region of interest is the Chukha region located along the Phuentsholing-Thimphu Highway, which is a significant trade route between neighbouring countries and the national capital Thimphu. In the present study, probabilities are determined by Bayes’ theorem considering rainfall and landslide data from 2004 to 2014. Singular (rainfall intensity, rainfall duration and event rainfall) along with a combination (rainfall intensity and rainfall duration) of precipitation parameters were considered to determine the probabilities for landslide events. A sensitivity analysis was performed to verify the determined probabilities. The results depict that a combination of rainfall parameters is a better indicator to forecast landslides as compared to single rainfall parameter. Finally, the probabilities are validated using landslide records for 2015 using a threat score. The validation signifies that the probabilities can be used as the first line of action for an operational landslide warning system.

Empirical Rainfall Thresholds for Occurrence of Landslides in Wayanad, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minu Treesa Abraham ◽  
Neelima Satyam ◽  
Ascanio Rosi
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Initial Step ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Critical Conditions ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Landslide Early Warning ◽  
Triggering Factor ◽  
The Relationship

<p>Rainfall Induced landslides are one among the major natural disasters which cause destruction to lives and properties across the world. Wayanad (Kerala, India) is a region characterized by highly destructive landslides during monsoons. During the recent past, in 2018 and 2019, substantial damage to lives, agricultural land and properties have occurred due to landslides in the region. To minimize the effect of such events, a Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) should be developed for Wayanad at the earliest. Being the major triggering factor, it is essential to study the relationship between the rainfall parameters and occurrence of landslides. Understanding the historical rainfall parameters which resulted in landslides will help to identify the critical conditions which are potent to initiate landslides in future in the study area and can effectively contribute to a LEWS. As an initial step towards achieving this goal, a study was conducted to develop regional scale rainfall threshold for the region using Intensity and Duration conditions which resulted in landslides in the recent history (2010-2018) in Wayanad. A catalogue has been prepared for the study area, collecting details of landslides happened during 2010 - 2018. Analysis has been carried out using two different statistical approaches, Bayesian and Frequentist, using 123 landslide events considered for the analysis. It is observed that both the methods are complementary and the Bayesian threshold is comparable with the Frequentist threshold with 5% exceedance probability where an intensity of 0.97mmh<sup>-1</sup> can trigger landslides in the region when the duration of rainfall is 24h. Further studies can be conducted for the region using advanced methods also, to find the best suited approach to define a regional scale threshold and hence an effective LEWS.</p>

scholarly journals Physical Model Test Study of the Relationship Between Loess Landslide and Rainfall

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 968-973
Author(s):  
Jiaming Han
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Model Test ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Unit Weight ◽  
Loess Landslide ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Loess Slope ◽  
Test Study ◽  
The Relationship

Launching research has important theoretical and practical value on model test study of the relationship between loess landslide and rainfall. According to the monitoring data of model test of loess slope, formula expression of safety factor has been fitted on landslide. Firstly, the loess slope damage process was monitored at different rainfall intensity, rainfall duration through rainfall landslide model tests. Secondly, some parameters were determined by laboratory tests, such as loess unit weight, moisture content, shear strength. Thirdly, the relational expression was fitted between moisture and rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight. Finally, moisture content being an intermediate variable, the expression was got between landslide safety factor and rainfall intensity, rainfall duration.

scholarly journals Analysis of Ownership Data from Consolidated Land Threatened by Water Erosion in the Vlára Basin, Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Alexandra Pagáč Mokrá ◽  
Jakub Pagáč ◽  
Zlatica Muchová ◽  
František Petrovič
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Land Consolidation ◽  
Land Fragmentation ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Soil Loss Equation

Water erosion is a phenomenon that significantly damages agricultural land. The current land fragmentation in Slovakia and the complete ambiguity of who owns it leads to a lack of responsibility to care for the land in its current condition, which could affect its sustainability in the future. The reason so much soil has eroded is obvious when looking at current land management, with large fields, a lack of windbreaks between them, and no barriers to prevent soil runoff. Land consolidation might be the solution. This paper seeks to evaluate redistributed land and, based on modeling by the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) method, to assess the degree of soil erosion risk. Ownership data provided information on how many owners and what amount of area to consider, while taking into account new conditions regarding water erosion. The results indicate that 2488 plots of 1607 owners which represent 12% of the model area are still endangered by water erosion, even after the completion of the land consolidation project. The results also presented a way of evaluating the territory and aims to trigger a discussion regarding an unambiguous definition of responsibility in the relationship between owner and user.

scholarly journals Prediction of factors affecting activation of soil erosion by mathematical modeling at pedon scale under laboratory conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Shojaei ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Jesús Rodrigo-Comino
Keyword(s):  
Soil Loss ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Quadratic Function ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Soil Protection ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Production

AbstractSoil degradation due to erosion is a significant worldwide problem at different spatial (from pedon to watershed) and temporal scales. All stages and factors in the erosion process must be detected and evaluated to reduce this environmental issue and protect existing fertile soils and natural ecosystems. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators allow single factors and interactive effects to be investigated under controlled conditions during extreme rainfall events. In this study, three main factors (rainfall intensity, inclination, and rainfall duration) were assessed to obtain empirical data for modeling water erosion during single rainfall events. Each factor was divided into three levels (− 1, 0, + 1), which were applied in different combinations using a rainfall simulator on beds (6 × 1 m) filled with soil from a study plot located in the arid Sistan region, Iran. The rainfall duration levels tested were 3, 5, and 7 min, the rainfall intensity levels were 30, 60, and 90 mm/h, and the inclination levels were 5, 15, and 25%. The results showed that the highest rainfall intensity tested (90 mm/h) for the longest duration (7 min) caused the highest runoff (62 mm3/s) and soil loss (1580 g/m2/h). Based on the empirical results, a quadratic function was the best mathematical model (R2 = 0.90) for predicting runoff (Q) and soil loss. Single-factor analysis revealed that rainfall intensity was more influential for runoff production than changes in time and inclination, while rainfall duration was the most influential single factor for soil loss. Modeling and three-dimensional depictions of the data revealed that sediment production was high and runoff production lower at the beginning of the experiment, but this trend was reversed over time as the soil became saturated. These results indicate that avoiding the initial stage of erosion is critical, so all soil protection measures should be taken to reduce the impact at this stage. The final stages of erosion appeared too complicated to be modeled, because different factors showed differing effects on erosion.

scholarly journals Development of Temporal Rainfall Pattern for Southern Region of Sarawak

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 17-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosmina A. Bustami ◽  
Nor Azalina Rosli ◽  
Jethro Henry Adam ◽  
Kuan Pei Li
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Rainfall Pattern ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Urban Storm ◽  
Australian Rainfall

 In the process of a design rainfall, information on rainfall duration, average rainfall intensity and temporal rainfall pattern is important. This study focuses on developing a temporal rainfall pattern for the Southern region of Sarawak since temporal pattern for Sarawak is yet to be available in the Malaysian Urban Storm Water Management Manual (MSMA), which publishes temporal pattern for design storms only for Peninsular Malaysia. The recommended technique by the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) known as the ‘Average Variability Method’ and method in Hydrological Procedure No.1-1982 are used to derive design rainfall temporal pattern for the study. Rainfall data of 5 minutes interval from year 1998 to year 2006 for 7 selected rainfall stations in the selected region is obtained from Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID). The temporal rainfall patterns developed are for 10 minutes,15 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 120 minutes, 180 minutes and 360 minutes duration. The results show that Southern region of Sarawak has an exclusive rainfall pattern, which is different from the pattern developed for Peninsular Malaysia.

scholarly journals Waterschappen (Irrigation Agencies) in Vorstenlanden Surakarta and Yogyakarta, 1900-1942

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Machmoed Effendhie ◽  
Arif Rahman Bramantya
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Change ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Water Distribution System ◽  
State Involvement ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
As Effects

The purpose of this study is to track the introduction of the irrigation agency (Watershappen) in the Vorstenlanden area Surakarta and Yogyakarta as well as effects on the relationship between farmers, farmers and plantation owners. In addition, this study aims to understand the patterns of institutional change and the water distribution system in the Vorstenlanden region and consequently on agriculture and plantation. State involvement in the problem of water distribution in the Vorstenlanden area causing a collision between a proportional system that has been done by the traditional farmers with absolute system applied state. As a result, irrigation conflicts arise between plantation because of the use of a watershed point for some plantations. Conflicts between plantations and farmers because of water scarcity due to the autonomy of the estate in the distribution of water to agricultural land and conflicts between farmers as water encroachment without the knowledge of other farmers. 

scholarly journals Principles of Good Faith in Harmonization of Partnership Cooperation on the Distribution of Nine Food Ingredients at PT Sarana PanganMadani, Pekanbaru City

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 388-397
Author(s):  
Yeni Triana ◽  
Handana
Keyword(s):  
Community Service ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Limited Liability ◽  
Good Faith ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Food Ingredients ◽  
Limited Knowledge ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

The problem of limited knowledge of partners about agreements or contracts in general, and in particular regarding the principle of good faith in business activities faced by business actors and company management, which generally consists of millennial youth, which can be said to be still lacking in understanding the principle of commitment well, as a guideline in carrying out the actions of a company, especially companies with legal entities, such as Limited Liability Companies, where PT Sarana PanganMadani, has established many partnerships, which of course must keep the relationship harmonious, sometimes the relationship is already running, due to limited knowledge, experience, there was a clash that would definitely hinder good relations, both parties, for example, at the beginning of the negotiation there was an agreement, which gave birth to a partnership to distribute the nine staples, but in its implementation, there were obstacles, which caused Due to the difference in prices, even though at the beginning of the negotiation the price was already agreed to, but there was a change, which was due to an increase in market prices or production prices, so that the price that was agreed upon earlier, of course changed, this change is a problem of misunderstanding between the two parties, according to Partners. PT Sarana PanganMadani, the company raised prices unilaterally, while from the PT stated that due to changes in market prices, this is one example which is a significant obstacle, resulting in inconsistencies in the development of partner businesses which are good business groups providing distribution of nine staples daily activities, as well as providing business capital to develop agricultural land, as well as services, ranging from basic materials to packaging ready to be marketed. In this community service program, the priority issue agreed upon by the PKM FH Unilak proposer together with his partner, PT Sarana PanganMadani, to be resolved is to provide understanding through legal counseling about the principles of good faith in cooperating with the business community. Thus, after the program is implemented, it is hoped that partners will gain a correct understanding and have knowledge of agreements or contracts in general, and in particular the principles of good faith in this partnership. The method that will be used in this community service is to use lectures that will be directly at the PT Sarana PanganMadani office.

scholarly journals Radioecological assessment of forage agricultural land in the southwestern areas of the Bryansk region based on a set of statistical models

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-49
Author(s):  
S.I. Spiridonov ◽  
◽  
V.V. Ivanov ◽  
I.E. Titov ◽  
V.E. Nushtaeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Contamination ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Sandy Loam ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Content Standards ◽  
Organic Soils ◽  
137Cs Content ◽  
Wide Range

This paper presents a radioecological assessment of forage agricultural land in the southwestern districts of the Bryansk region based on data characterizing the variability of the radionuclides content in the soil. Concentration of 137Cs in forage was calculated taking into account the proba-bility distributions of 137Cs soil contamination density and the soil to plant transfer factor. The pro-cessing data of the radioecological survey has shown the soil contamination density with 137Cs of agricultural lands in the southwestern areas of the Bryansk region obeys a lognormal law. The authors have used statistical models and software modules for the radioecological assessment of forage lands. Risks of exceeding the 137Cs content standards in forage obtained on soils with different texture have been calculated. The limiting levels of contamination of pastures and hay-fields with 137Cs, ensuring compliance with the specified risks for forage, have been estimated. The lowest limiting soil contamination density is characteristic of organic soils, which can be con-sidered “critical” from the point of view of 137Cs intake into forage. The authors have predicted the time of remediation of forage lands in the southwestern districts of the Bryansk region in the ab-sence of protective measures based on a probabilistic approach. The time period during which the risk of forage contamination for sandy, sandy loam and clay loam soils will decrease to 10% varies for the areas under consideration in a wide range, not exceeding 64 years. It is concluded that it is advisable to substantiate the value of the acceptable risk of forage contamination, taking into account radiological and socio-economic aspects.

scholarly journals Análise dos Fatores que Influenciaram na Modernização e na Expansão da Agropecuária no Estado de Goiás

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Batista Alves
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Structure Modification ◽  
Land Price ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Technology Standard ◽  
Technological Standard ◽  
Standard Structure ◽  
The Relationship

A proposta básica deste trabalho é tentar compreender como se dá a expansão de fronteiras no estado de Goiás verificando as relações entre o preço da terra e as variáveis de padrão tecnológico - terras irrigadas, número de tratores, investimentos, dentre outras. Realizou-se uma análise das correlações entre as variáveis preço da terra de pastagem e agrícola e as variáveis que compõem o nível de padrão tecnológico, chegando-se à conclusão de que a variação nos preços da terra não está associada à modificação da estrutura do nível de padrão tecnológico em função do baixo coeficiente de correlação encontrado. Isso pode ter ocorrido, talvez, por uma forte especulação de terras no território, pois a antiga região de fronteira foi se tornando saturada impedindo novas ocupações ou assentamentos. Palavras-chaves: Frente de expansão, frente pioneira, renda diferencial, padrão tecnológico, coeficiente de correlação.Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to try to understand as how occurs the borders expansion in the state of Goiás showing the relationship between land price and the variables of technological standard, as irrigated lands, tractors number and investments among others. It has been done an analysis of correlations among variables as cattle and agricultural land price and composing variables of the level of technological standard, structure modification of technology standard, as function of low coefficient of found correlation. It could occurred, maybe, by a strong speculation of land prices in this area, as the ancient border region was been saturated obstructing new occupations and settlements. Key Words: Expansion front, pioneer front, differential income, technological standard, correlation coefficient.

scholarly journals [‘Uthmaniyyah’ Relationship with Muslim Community East Africa Africa] Hubungan ‘Uthmaniyyah dengan Komuniti Muslim Timur Laut Afrika

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-169
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fauzan Rosli ◽  
Ermy Azziaty Rozali
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Study ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Holy War ◽  
Northeast Africa ◽  
Trade Route ◽  
The Relationship

After the conquest of Egypt in 1517M, the relationship between the Ottoman and the northeast African Muslim community was served. On 1555M, the eyalet of Habesha was established in order to protect the Two Holy Cities of Muslims and the Muslim community in Red Sea shores particulary the northeast Africa. Apart from that, the establishment of the Habesha eyalet was to secure the political and trade route for the Ottoman on that region. Unfortunately, the Ottoman’s initiative were seen as provocations to the Bani Funj, ruler of the Sinnar Sultanate in Nubia which eventually led to centuries of feud between them.The objective of this article is to identify the relationship dynamics between the Ottoman and the Muslim community in northeast Africa, mainly in the regions of Nubia and Ethiopia. This qualitative study is carried out through literature and historical analysis to observe similarities, make comparisons and deduce interpretations of related historical events in that relationship. This study found that, the Ottoman’s relationship throughout the 16th and the 18th centuries, changes allies and foes constantly between the Sinnar Sultanate as well as the Ethiopian kingdoms. Meanwhile, even after the collapse of the Adal Sultanate’s holy war, the Ottoman’s commitment on the destiny of Ethiopian Muslim remained unchanged.   Keywords: Ottoman, Muslim community, Sinnar Sultanate, Ethiopia   Setelah menguasai Mesir pada 1517M, hubungan antara ‘Uthmaniyyah dan komuniti Muslim timur laut Afrika mula terjalin. Pada 1555M, eyalet Habesha telah diasaskan untuk melindungi Dua Kota Suci umat Islam serta komuniti Muslim di persisiran pantai Laut Merah terutamanya di timur laut Afrika. Selain itu, penubuhan eyalet Habesha juga bertujuan mengukuhkan kedudukan politik dan penguasaan perdagangan ‘Uthmaniyyah ke atas rantau tersebut. Walau bagaimanapun, tindakan ‘Uthmaniyyah itu dilihat sebagai sebuah provokasi kepada Bani Funj yang menguasai kesultanan Sinnar di Nubia. Keadaan ini telah membawa kepada perseteruan lebih daripada dua abad. Objektif artikel ini adalah untuk mengenal pasti hubungan dinamik ‘Uthmaniyyah dengan komuniti Muslim di timur laut Afrika terutama di dua wilayah utama iaitu Nubia dan Ethiopia. Kajian kualitatif ini dijalankan melalui kaedah kepustakaan dan analisa sejarah bagi melihat persamaan, membuat perbandingan serta menghasilkan interpretasi terhadap peristiwa-peristiwa sejarah yang terkait dalam hubungan tersebut. Kajian ini mendapati bahawa sepanjang abad ke-16M hingga ke-18M, hubungan antara ‘Uthmaniyyah dan kesultanan Sinnar serta kerajaan Ethiopia menjadikan status lawan dan kawan sering kali berubah. Manakala, komitmen ‘Uthmaniyyah terhadap nasib Muslim Ethiopia tidak berubah walaupun setelah kekalahan gerakan jihad kesultanan ‘Adal.   Kata kunci: Uthmaniyyah, Komuniti Muslim, Kesultanan Sinnar, Ethiopia

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