scholarly journals The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 2699
Author(s):  
Ling-Shuang Lv ◽  
Dong-Hui Jin ◽  
Wen-Jun Ma ◽  
Tao Liu ◽  
Yi-Qing Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Respiratory Disease ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cold Temperature ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
The Impact

The ambient temperature–health relationship is of growing interest as the climate changes. Previous studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality or morbidity, however, there is little literature available on the ambient temperature effects on year of life lost (YLL). Thus, we aimed to quantify the YLL attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature. We obtained data from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017 of 70 counties in Hunan, China. In order to combine the effects of each county, we used YLL rate as a health outcome indicator. The YLL rate was equal to the total YLL divided by the population of each county, and multiplied by 100,000. We estimated the associations between ambient temperature and YLL with a distributed lag non-linear model (DNLM) in a single county, and then pooled them in a multivariate meta-regression. The daily mean YLL rates were 22.62 y/(p·100,000), 10.14 y/(p·100,000) and 2.33 y/(p·100,000) within the study period for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease death. Ambient temperature was responsible for advancing a substantial fraction of YLL, with attributable fractions of 10.73% (4.36–17.09%) and 16.44% (9.09–23.79%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. However, the ambient temperature effect was not significantly for respiratory disease death, corresponding to 5.47% (−2.65–13.60%). Most of the YLL burden was caused by a cold temperature than the optimum temperature, with an overall estimate of 10.27% (4.52–16.03%) and 15.94% (8.82–23.05%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. Cold and heat temperature-related YLLs were higher in the elderly and females than the young and males. Extreme cold temperature had an effect on all age groups in different kinds of disease-caused death. This study highlights that general preventative measures could be important for moderate temperatures, whereas quick and effective measures should be provided for extreme temperatures.

scholarly journals The Impact of Cold and Heat on Years of Life Lost in a Northwestern Chinese City with Temperate Continental Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangtao Liu ◽  
Yueling Ma ◽  
Yuhong Wang ◽  
Sheng Li ◽  
Shuyu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Heat Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Continental Climate

Cold spells and heat waves in a changing climate are well known as great public-health concerns due to their adverse effects on human health. However, very few studies have quantified health impacts of heat and cold in the region of Northwestern China. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of cold and heat on years of life lost (YLL) in Lanzhou, a city with temperate continental climate. We compiled a daily dataset including deaths, weather variables, and air pollutants in Lanzhou, China, from 2014–2017. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate single-day and cumulative effects of heat and cold on daily YLL. Results indicated that both cold and heat were associated with increased YLL for registered residents in Lanzhou. Estimated heat effects appeared immediately in the first two days, while estimated cold effects lasted over a longer period (up to 30 days). Cold significantly increased the YLL of all residents except for males and those with respiratory diseases (≥65 years). Our results showed that both heat and cold had more pronounced effects on cardiovascular diseases compared to respiratory diseases. Males might be more vulnerable to heat, while females might suffer more YLL from cold. The effects of cold or heat on the elderly might appear earlier and last longer than those for other age groups.

scholarly journals Impact of ambient temperature on life loss per death from cardiovascular diseases: a multicenter study in central China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling-Shuang Lv ◽  
Chun-Liang Zhou ◽  
Dong-Hui Jin ◽  
Wen-Jun Ma ◽  
Tao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Cold Temperature ◽  
Central China ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background In the context of global climate change, studies have focused on the ambient temperature and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, little is known about the effect of ambient temperature on year of life lost (YLL), especially the life loss per death caused by ambient temperature. In this study, we aimed to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and life loss and estimate the impact of ambient temperature on life loss per death. Methods We collected daily time series of mortality and meteorological data from 70 locations in Hunan province, central China, in periods ranging from Jan. 1, 2013, to Dec. 31, 2017. Crude rates of YLL were calculated per 100,000 people per year (YLL/100,000 population) for each location. A distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-regression were used to estimate the associations between ambient temperature and YLL rates. Then, the average life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature was calculated. Results There were 711,484 CVD deaths recorded within the study period. The exposure-response curve between ambient temperature and YLL rates was inverted J or U-shaped. Relative to the minimum YLL rate temperature, the life loss risk of extreme cold temperature lasted for 10 to 12 days, whereas the risk of extreme hot temperature appeared immediately and lasted for 3 days. On average, the life loss per death attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures was 1.89 (95% CI, 1.21-2.56) years. Life loss was mainly caused by cold temperature (1.13, 95% CI, 0.89‑1.37), particularly moderate cold (1.00, 95% CI, 0.78‑1.23). For demographic characteristics, the mean life loss per death was relatively higher for males (2.07, 95% CI, 1.44‑2.68) and younger populations (3.72, 95% CI, 2.06‑5.46) than for females (1.88, 95% CI, 1.21-2.57) and elderly people (1.69, 95% CI, 1.28-2.10), respectively. Conclusions We found that both cold and hot temperatures significantly aggravated premature death from CVDs. Our results indicated that the whole range of effects of ambient temperature on CVDs should be given attention.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of air pollution on the urban population of Brazil

2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (suppl 4) ◽  
pp. S529-S536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izabel Marcilio ◽  
Nelson Gouveia
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Pollution Levels ◽  
Time Series Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Respiratory Causes

This study aimed to quantify air pollution impact on morbidity and mortality in the Brazilian urban population using locally generated impact factors. Concentration-response coefficients were used to estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths attributable to air pollution in seven Brazilian cities. Poisson regression coefficients (beta) were obtained from time-series studies conducted in Brazil. The study included individuals 65 years old and over and children under five. More than 600 deaths a year from respiratory causes in the elderly and 47 in children were attributable to mean air pollution levels, corresponding to 4.9% and 5.5% of all deaths from respiratory causes in these age groups. More than 4,000 hospital admissions for respiratory conditions were also attributable to air pollution. These results quantitatively demonstrate the currently observed contribution of air pollution to mortality and hospitalizations in Brazilian cities. Such assessment is thought to help support the planning of surveillance and control activities for air pollution in these and similar areas.

scholarly journals Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January–August 2020

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maider Pagola Ugarte ◽  
Souzana Achilleos ◽  
Annalisa Quattrocchi ◽  
John Gabel ◽  
Ourania Kolokotroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Research Consortium ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). Methods Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. Results As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18–185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112–1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. Conclusions Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

scholarly journals Dietary Patterns in a Population Cohort in Uruguay and Associations with Markers of Cardiovascular Disease Risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 548-548
Author(s):  
Paula Moliterno ◽  
Carmen Donangelo ◽  
Juan Vanerio ◽  
Romina Nogara ◽  
Matias Pecora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Calcium Intake ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
High Density Lipoproteins ◽  
Blood Lipid Profile ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives The impact of habitual diet on chronic diseases has not been extensively characterized in South America. We aimed to identify major dietary patterns (DP) in a population adult cohort in Uruguay (Genotype Phenotype and Environment of Hypertension Study - GEFA-HT-UY) and to assess associations with metabolic and anthropometric markers of cardiovascular disease risk. Methods In a subsample (n = 295), DP were derived by principal component analysis based on 27 food groups (food frequency questionnaire). Total cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), low and high-density lipoproteins cholesterol (LDL, HDL), fasting glucose and insulin (HOMA), 25(OH)D, neutrophils and lymphocytes were measured in blood. Body weight, height, waist and blood pressure (BP) were measured. Multivariable linear regression models were used to estimate by tertile of DP load the adjusted changes of each outcome variable (relative to tertile 1), according to age (splitting by median age, 54 y). The models included sex, smoking, alcohol drinking, BMI, and season for 25(OH)D, as covariables. Results Three DP were identified: Meat (MDP), Prudent (PDP), and Cereal and Mate (CMDP), explaining 22.6% of total variance. MDP was characterized by higher loads for red, processed and barbecued meat; PDP by higher loads for vegetables, fish and nuts; and CMDP by higher loads for cereals and mate (traditional infused drink). Protein, sodium and alcohol intake increased, and fibre, mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids (MUFA, PUFA) intake decreased, by MDP tertile. Protein, fat (MUFA), fibre and calcium intake increased by PDP tertile. Carbohydrate, sodium and energy intake increased, and PUFA and calcium intake decreased, by CMDP tertile. MDP was associated with lower HDL (−3.1 mg/dl) and 25(OH)D (−3.5 ng/ml), and higher TG/HDL ratio (0.8) and HOMA (0.5), in the older group (P < 0.05). PDP was associated with higher 25(OH)D in both age groups (2.9 and 7.7 ng/ml; P < 0.002). CMDP was associated with higher neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio (0.35) in the younger group, and higher LDL (18.2 mg/dl), systolic BP (5.9 mm Hg) and waist/height ratio (0.024) in the older group (P < 0.05). Conclusions Meat DP was associated with worse blood lipid profile in younger adults, Cereal and Mate DP with worse cardiovascular risk markers in older adults, and Prudent DP with higher 25(OH)D in both age groups. Funding Sources CSIC, ANII, Uruguay.

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Aruffo ◽  
Pei Yuan ◽  
Yi Tan ◽  
Evgenia Gatov ◽  
Iain Moyles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
Initial Strategy ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Background: Since December 2020, public health agencies have implemented a variety of vaccination strategies to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, along with pre-existing Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). Initial strategy focused on vaccinating the elderly to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. With vaccines becoming available to the broader population, we aimed to determine the optimal strategy to enable the safe lifting of NPIs while avoiding virus resurgence. Methods: We developed a compartmental deterministic SEIR model to simulate the lifting of NPIs under different vaccination rollout scenarios. Using case and vaccination data from Toronto, Canada between December 28, 2020 and May 19, 2021, we estimated transmission throughout past stages of NPI escalation/relaxation to compare the impact of lifting NPIs on different dates on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, given varying degrees of vaccine coverages by 20-year age groups, accounting for waning immunity. Results: We found that, once coverage among the elderly is high enough (80% with at least one dose), the main age groups to target are 20-39 and 40-59 years, whereby first-dose coverage of at least 70% by mid-June 2021 is needed to minimize the possibility of resurgence if NPIs are to be lifted in the summer. While a resurgence was observed for every scenario of NPI lifting, we also found that under an optimistic vaccination coverage (70% by mid-June, postponing reopening from August 2021 to September 2021can reduce case counts and severe outcomes by roughly 80% by December 31, 2021. Conclusions: Our results suggest that focusing the vaccination strategy on the working-age population can curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, even with high vaccination coverage in adults, lifting NPIs to pre-pandemic levels is not advisable since a resurgence is expected to occur, especially with earlier reopening.

scholarly journals Neurological diseases in Peru: a systematic analysis of the global burden disease study

2020 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 282-289
Author(s):  
Carlos ALVA-DÍAZ ◽  
Andrely HUERTA-ROSARIO ◽  
Kevin PACHECO-BARRIOS ◽  
Roberto A. MOLINA ◽  
Alba NAVARRO-FLORES ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Neurological Diseases ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Disease Study ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Background: Disease burden indicators assess the impact of disease on a population. They integrate mortality and disability in a single indicator. This allows setting priorities for health services and focusing resources. Objective: To analyze the burden of neurological diseases in Peru from 1990-2015. Methods: A descriptive study that used the epidemiological data published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of Global Burden of Diseases from 1990 to 2015. Disease burden was measured using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), which results from the addition of the years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). Results: The burden of neurological diseases in Peru were 9.06 and 10.65%, in 1990 and 2015, respectively. In 2015, the main causes were migraine, cerebrovascular disease (CVD), neonatal encephalopathy (NE), and Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (ADD). This last group and nervous system cancer (NSC) increased 157 and 183% of DALY compared to 1990, respectively. Young population (25 to 44 years old) and older (>85 years old) were the age groups with the highest DALY. The neurological diseases produced 11.06 and 10.02% of the national YLL (CVD as the leading cause) and YLD (migraine as the main cause), respectively. Conclusion: The burden of disease (BD) increased by 1.6% from 1990 to 2015. The main causes were migraine, CVD, and NE. ADD and NSC doubled the DALY in this period. These diseases represent a significant cause of disability attributable to the increase in the life expectancy of our population among other factors. Priority actions should be taken to prevent and treat these causes.

scholarly journals 1491Impact of COVID19 on years of life lost with and without disability across 18 European-countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Ahmadi-Abhari ◽  
Piotr Bandosz ◽  
Mika Kivimaki ◽  
Lefkos Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Prevalence Of Dementia ◽  
Incidence Of Dementia

Abstract Background To accurately assess the impact of COVID19 on life-expectancy, years of life lost, and prevalence of dementia and disability, a model integrating calendar-trends in cardiovascular-disease, dementia, disability and mortality is required. We estimated these impacts in Austria, Belgium, Czech-Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. Methods Data to inform the ten-state Monte-Carlo Markov-model for the 18 European countries were derived from official-statistics for population-numbers and mortality-rates (age&sex-specific) and from Survey for Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe for prevalence-estimates and transition-probabilities. Impact of COVID19 was measured comparing the estimates derived from incorporating expected mortality rates assuming calendar-trends in mortality and incidence of dementia, disability, and cardiovascular-disease continue those of the past two-decades, and those incorporating excess COVID19 mortality. Results Assuming COVID-19 vaccination and termination of the pandemic will be accomplished by the end of 2021, the pandemic will have resulted in a loss of 9.3M (95% Uncertainty-Interval 1.3M-29.8M) person-years of life, including 7.1M person-years of dementia-free life and 5.2M person-years of disability-free life among the 289M population (as of 2019) above age-35. The effects on prevalence of dementia, disability and life-expectancy will be presented. Conclusions The impact of the pandemic on disability-free person-years of life lost are devastating, marking a need for more rapid actions to halt the spread of epidemics. Key messages Accurate estimation of future prevalence of dementia and disability to quantify the impact of the pandemic on years of life lost needs to simultaneously account for the declining trends in incidence of dementia and the decline in cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality resulting in increased life-expectancy and a larger pool susceptible to dementia and disability. The COVID19 pandemic is estimated to result in 9.3million person-years of life lost in 18 European countries including a loss of 7.1M person-years of dementia-free life and 5.2M person-years of disability-free life.

scholarly journals Disability and the risk of subsequent mortality in elderly: a 12-year longitudinal population-based study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yang ◽  
Zhaohui Du ◽  
Yafei Liu ◽  
Jiahui Lao ◽  
Xiaoru Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cumulative Mortality ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Young Old

Abstract Background Assessment the impact of disability on mortality among the elderly is vital to healthy ageing. The present study aimed to assess the long-term influence of disability on death in the elderly based on a longitudinal study. Method This study used the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS) data from 2002 to 2014, including 13,666 participants aged 65 years and older in analyses. The Katz ADL index was used to assess disability status and levels. Cumulative mortality rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were conducted to estimate associations between disability and all-cause mortality for overall participants, two age groups as well as specific chronic disease groups. All reported results were adjusted by survey weights to account for the complex survey design. Results During the 12-year follow-up, the death density was 6.01 per 100 person-years. The 3-years’ cumulative mortality rate of nondisabled elderly was 11.9% (95%CI: 10.9, 12.9%). As the level of disability increased, the cumulative mortality rate was from 28.1% (95%CI: 23.0, 33.1%) to 77.6% (95%CI: 63.8, 91.4%). Compared with non-disabled elderly, the multiple-adjusted hazard ratio of death due to disability was 1.68 (95% CI: 1.48, 1.90). The hazard ratios varied from 1.44 (95%CI: 1.23, 1.67) to 4.45 (95%CI: 2.69, 7.38) after classifying the disability levels. The hazard ratios of death in the young-old group (65–79 years) were higher than the old-old group (80 years and over) in both level B (HR = 1.58, 95%CI: 1.25, 2.00 vs. HR = 1.22, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.39, P = 0.029) and level G (HR = 24.09, 95%CI: 10.83, 53.60 vs. HR = 2.56, 95%CI: 1.75, 3.74, P < 0.001). For patients with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease as well as dementia, disability increases their relative risk of mortality by 1.64 (95%CI: 1.40, 1.93), 2.85 (95%CI: 1.46, 5.58), 1.45 (95%CI: 1.02, 2.05), 2.13 (95%CI: 1.54, 2.93) and 3.56 (95%CI: 1.22, 10.38) times, respectively. Conclusions Disability increases the risk of all-cause death in the elderly, especially those with chronic diseases and the young-old group. Further studies are needed to better understand how to effectively prevent disability in the older population.

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