scholarly journals Municipality Data as a Rapid and Effective Tool to Analyse Spatial and Temporal Variations of All-Cause Mortality by Town District: The Experience in Genoa (Italy)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 8250
Author(s):  
Paolo Contiero ◽  
Giovanna Tagliabue ◽  
Andrea Tittarelli ◽  
Martina Bertoldi ◽  
Claudio Tresoldi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
European Population ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
Epidemiological Methodology ◽  
Sex And Age Differences ◽  
General Mortality ◽  
Observation Period

The main objective of this study was to analyse the space–time epidemiological differences by sex during the 2009–2020 period in the total mortality recorded among residents in each of the 25 districts of the Genoa municipality, net of the age effect. The analysis was based on official statistical data relating to total mortality and on the resident population. An estimate of the expected deaths was made to calculate the sex-specific age-standardised mortality ratio (SMR). The temporal trends and age-standardized death rates (SDRs) with respect to those of the European population specific to sex and calendar year were identified for each district. Over the entire observation period, the SMR for males ranged from 124.4 (Cornigliano) to 82.0 (Albaro); for females, the values ranged between 133.4 (Cornigliano) and 85.6 (Nervi-Quinto-S. Ilario). Between 2019 and 2020, Genoa recorded an increase in SDR of 24.5%, more pronounced in males (+26.7%) than in females (+22.4%). This epidemiological methodology is replicable and allows to quickly identify spatial, temporal, sex, and age differences in the general mortality within a municipality.

scholarly journals Temporal trends in the healthy soldier effect in a cohort of Royal Norwegian Navy servicemen followed for 67 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (11) ◽  
pp. 775-781
Author(s):  
Leif Aage Strand ◽  
Jan Ivar Martinsen ◽  
Elin Anita Fadum ◽  
Einar Kristian Borud
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Neoplastic Disease ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Disease Mortality ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Standardised Mortality Ratios ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Rate Ratios

ObjectivesTo investigate temporal trends in the ‘healthy soldier effect’ (HSE) among 28 300 Royal Norwegian Navy servicemen who served during 1950–2004.MethodsStandardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for all causes, diseases and external causes were calculated from national rates for the entire study period (1951–2017), and for seven successive follow-up periods after the first recorded day of Naval service, for the overall cohort and for two subgroups: land-based personnel and vessel crews. Poisson regression, expressed as rate ratios, was used to compare all-cause mortality between the subgroups.ResultsIn the overall cohort, SMRs for all-cause mortality increased steadily during the first six 10-year follow-up periods, from 0.52 to 0.94, which was still lower than national rates. After 60 years, the lower mortality compared with national rates was no longer statistically significant (SMR=0.93). Low non-neoplastic disease mortality contributed most to the longevity of the HSE. For neoplastic diseases, there was a mortality deficit only for the first and third 10-year follow-up periods. External-cause mortality rose to national rates after 40 years. An HSE was present among vessel crews, but their total mortality rate was 24% higher than that among land-based personnel, who also showed a longer-lasting HSE.ConclusionsThe HSE eroded gradually over time but was still present at 60 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality. The effect was strongest and most long-lived for non-neoplastic disease, lasted up to 40 years for external causes, and was relatively short for cancers. Land-based personnel showed stronger and longer-lasting HSE than vessel crews.

scholarly journals Risk factors for excess all-cause mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England: A retrospective cohort study of primary care data

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260381
Author(s):  
Iain M. Carey ◽  
Derek G. Cook ◽  
Tess Harris ◽  
Stephen DeWilde ◽  
Umar A. R. Chaudhry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
The Impact

Background The COVID-19 pandemic’s first wave in England during spring 2020 resulted in an approximate 50% increase in all-cause mortality. Previously, risk factors such as age and ethnicity, were identified by studying COVID-related deaths only, but these were under-recorded during this period. Objective To use a large electronic primary care database to estimate the impact of risk factors (RFs) on excess mortality in England during the first wave, compared with the impact on total mortality during 2015–19. Methods Medical history, ethnicity, area-based deprivation and vital status data were extracted for an average of 4.8 million patients aged 30–104 years, for each year between 18-March and 19-May over a 6-year period (2015–2020). We used Poisson regression to model total mortality adjusting for age and sex, with interactions between each RF and period (pandemic vs. 2015–19). Total mortality during the pandemic was partitioned into "usual" and "excess" components, assuming 2015–19 rates represented "usual" mortality. The association of each RF with the 2020 "excess" component was derived as the excess mortality ratio (EMR), and compared with the usual mortality ratio (UMR). Results RFs where excess mortality was greatest and notably higher than usual were age >80, non-white ethnicity (e.g., black vs. white EMR = 2.50, 95%CI 1.97–3.18; compared to UMR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.85–1.00), BMI>40, dementia, learning disability, severe mental illness, place of residence (London, care-home, most deprived). By contrast, EMRs were comparable to UMRs for sex. Although some co-morbidities such as cancer produced EMRs significantly below their UMRs, the EMRs were still >1. In contrast current smoking has an EMR below 1 (EMR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.65–0.98) compared to its UMR = 1.64. Conclusions Studying risk factors for excess mortality during the pandemic highlighted differences from studying cause-specific mortality. Our approach illustrates a novel methodology for evaluating a pandemic’s impact by individual risk factor without requiring cause-specific mortality data.

scholarly journals Fruit and Vegetable Intake and All-Cause Mortality in a Chinese Population: The China Health and Nutrition Survey

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 342
Author(s):  
Yuxuan Gu ◽  
Yansu He ◽  
Shahmir H. Ali ◽  
Kaitlyn Harper ◽  
Hengjin Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetable Intake ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Sample Population ◽  
Fruit And Vegetable ◽  
Nutrition Survey ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
All Cause Mortality

This study was to investigate the association of long-term fruit and vegetable (FV) intake with all-cause mortality. We utilized data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), a prospective cohort study conducted in China. The sample population included 19,542 adult respondents with complete mortality data up to 31 December 2011. Cumulative FV intake was assessed by 3 day 24 h dietary recalls. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause mortality. Covariates included sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, health-related factors, and urban index. A total of 1409 deaths were observed during follow-up (median: 14 years). In the fully adjusted model, vegetable intake of the fourth quintile (327~408 g/day) had the greatest negative association with death compared to the lowest quintile (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.53–0.76). Fruit intake of the fifth quintile (more than 126 g/day) had the highest negative association (HR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.15–0.40) and increasing general FV intake were also negatively associated with all-cause mortality which demonstrated the greatest negative association in the amount of fourth quintile (HR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49–0.70) compared to the lowest quintile. To conclude, greater FV intake is associated with a reduced risk of total mortality for Chinese adults. High intake of fruit has a stronger negative association with mortality than differences in intake of vegetables. Our findings support recommendations to increase the intake of FV to promote overall longevity.

scholarly journals Dietary patterns related to total mortality and cancer mortality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcela R. Entwistle ◽  
Donald Schweizer ◽  
Ricardo Cisneros
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The United States ◽  
Red Meat ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Purpose This study investigated the association between dietary patterns, total mortality, and cancer mortality in the United States. Methods We identified the four major dietary patterns at baseline from 13,466 participants of the NHANES III cohort using principal component analysis (PCA). Dietary patterns were categorized into ‘prudent’ (fruits and vegetables), ‘western’ (red meat, sweets, pastries, oils), ‘traditional’ (red meat, legumes, potatoes, bread), and ‘fish and alcohol’. We estimated hazard ratios for total mortality, and cancer mortality using Cox regression models. Results A total of 4,963 deaths were documented after a mean follow-up of 19.59 years. Higher adherence to the ‘prudent’ pattern was associated with the lowest risk of total mortality (5th vs. 1st quintile HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82–0.98), with evidence that all-cause mortality decreased as consumption of the pattern increased. No evidence was found that the ‘prudent’ pattern reduced cancer mortality. The ‘western’ and the ‘traditional’ patterns were associated with up to 22% and 16% increased risk for total mortality (5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11–1.34; and 5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06–1.27, respectively), and up to 33% and 15% increased risk for cancer mortality (5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.10–1.62; and 5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06–1.24, respectively). The associations between adherence to the ‘fish and alcohol’ pattern and total mortality, and cancer mortality were not statistically significant. Conclusion Higher adherence to the ‘prudent’ diet decreased the risk of all-cause mortality but did not affect cancer mortality. Greater adherence to the ‘western’ and ‘traditional’ diet increased the risk of total mortality and mortality due to cancer.

scholarly journals Association of mushroom consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among American adults: prospective cohort study findings from NHANES III

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Djibril M. Ba ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Joshua Muscat ◽  
Laila Al-Shaar ◽  
Vernon Chinchilli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Risk ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Dietary Factors ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Nhanes Iii ◽  
Dietary Recall ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Specific Mortality

Abstract Background Whether mushroom consumption, which is rich in several bioactive compounds, including the crucial antioxidants ergothioneine and glutathione, is inversely associated with low all-cause and cause-specific mortality remains uncertain. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the association between mushroom consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Methods Longitudinal analyses of participants from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) extant data (1988–1994). Mushroom intake was assessed by a single 24-h dietary recall using the US Department of Agriculture food codes for recipe foods. All-cause and cause-specific mortality were assessed in all participants linked to the National Death Index mortality data (1988–2015). We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results Among 15,546 participants included in the current analysis, the mean (SE) age was  44.3 (0.5) years. During a mean (SD) follow-up duration of 19.5 (7.4) years , a total of 5826 deaths were documented. Participants who reported consuming mushrooms had lower risk of all-cause mortality compared with those without mushroom intake (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.73–0.98) after adjusting for demographic, major lifestyle factors, overall diet quality, and other dietary factors including total energy. When cause-specific mortality was examined, we did not observe any statistically significant associations with mushroom consumption. Consuming 1-serving of mushrooms per day instead of 1-serving of processed or red meats was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.50–0.84). We also observed a dose-response relationship between higher mushroom consumption and lower risk of all-cause mortality (P-trend = 0.03). Conclusion Mushroom consumption was associated with a lower risk of total mortality in this nationally representative sample of US adults.

scholarly journals Role of depressive symptoms in cardiometabolic diseases and subsequent transitions to all-cause mortality: an application of multistate models in a prospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
pp. svn-2020-000693
Author(s):  
Yanan Qiao ◽  
Siyuan Liu ◽  
Guochen Li ◽  
Yanqiang Lu ◽  
Ying Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Depression Scale ◽  
European Population ◽  
Multistate Models ◽  
Cardiometabolic Diseases ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Patients With Diabetes

Background and purposeThe role of depression in the development and outcome of cardiometabolic diseases remains to be clarified. We aimed to examine the extent to which depressive symptoms affect the transitions from healthy to diabetes, stroke, heart disease and subsequent all-cause mortality in a middle-aged and elderly European population.MethodsA total of 78 212 individuals aged ≥50 years from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were included. Participants with any baseline cardiometabolic diseases including diabetes, stroke and heart disease were excluded. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Euro-Depression scale at baseline. Participants were followed up to determine the occurrence of cardiometabolic diseases and all-cause mortality. We used multistate models to estimate the transition-specific HRs and 95% CIs after adjustment of confounders.ResultsDuring 500 711 person-years of follow-up, 4742 participants developed diabetes, 2173 had stroke, 5487 developed heart disease and 7182 died. Depressive symptoms were significantly associated with transitions from healthy to diabetes (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.20), stroke (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.44), heart disease (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.34) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.34 to 1.49). After cardiometabolic diseases, depressive symptoms were associated with the increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.89), patients who had stroke (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.61) and patients with heart disease (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.44).ConclusionsDepressive symptoms increase the risk of diabetes, stroke and heart disease, and affect the risk of mortality after the onset of these cardiometabolic conditions. Screening and treatment of depressive symptoms may have profound implications for the prevention and prognosis of cardiometabolic diseases.

Before, During, and After the First Wave of COVID-19: Mortality Analyses Reveal Relevant Trends in Germany and its States until June 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (08/09) ◽  
pp. e41-e48
Author(s):  
Peter Morfeld ◽  
Barbara Timmermann ◽  
J. Valérie Groß ◽  
Philip Lewis ◽  
Thomas C Erren
Keyword(s):  
Population Data ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
The Public ◽  
Federal States ◽  
Statistical Institute ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratios

ABSTRACT Objective Well-established mortality ratio methodology can contribute to a fuller picture of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 burden of disease by revealing trends and informing mitigation strategies. This work examines respective data from Germany by way of example. Methods Using monthly and weekly all-cause mortality data from January 2016 to June 2020 (published by the German Federal Statistical Institute) for all ages,<65 years and≥65 years, and specified for Germany’s federal states, we explored mortality as sequela of COVID-19. We analysed standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) comparing 2020 with 2016–2019 as reference years with a focus on trend detection. Results In Germany as a whole, elevated mortality in April (most pronounced for Bavaria) declined in May. The states of Hamburg and Bremen had increased SMRs in all months under study. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, decreased SMRs in January turned monotonically to increased SMRs by June. Irrespective of age group, this trend was pronounced and significant. Conclusions Increased SMRs in Hamburg and Bremen must be interpreted with caution because of potential upward distortions due to a “catchment bias”. A pronounced excess mortality in April across Germany was confirmed and a hitherto undetected trend of increasing SMRs for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was revealed. To meet the pandemic challenge and to benefit from research based on data collected in standardized ways, national authorities should regularly conduct SMR analyses. For independent analyses, national authorities should also expedite publishing raw mortality and population data, including detailed information on age, sex, and cause of death, in the public domain.

scholarly journals Temporal and spatial variations in freeze warnings in the conterminous United States: 2005–2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 139 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1379-1384
Author(s):  
Brandon Lawhorn ◽  
Robert C. Balling
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
The United States ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Us ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Frost Free Period ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Trends

AbstractIt is well-documented that the United States (US), along with other mid-latitude land locations, has experienced warming in recent decades in response to changes in atmospheric composition. Among other changes, Easterling (2002) reported that the frost-free period is now longer across much of the US with the first frost in fall occurring later and the last freeze in spring occurring earlier. In this investigation, we explore spatial and temporal variations in all freeze warnings issued by the US National Weather Service. Freeze warning counts are highest in the southeastern US peaking overall in the spring and fall months. Freeze warnings tend to occur more toward summer moving northward and westward into more northerly states. Consistent with the warming in recent decades, we find statistically significant northward movements in freeze warning centroids in some months (December, February) across the study period (2005–2018). Detection of spatial and temporal trends in freeze warnings may be of interest to any number of scientists with applied climatological interests.

scholarly journals Dietary fiber intake and total and cause-specific mortality: the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study

2020 ◽  
Vol 111 (5) ◽  
pp. 1027-1035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryoko Katagiri ◽  
Atsushi Goto ◽  
Norie Sawada ◽  
Taiki Yamaji ◽  
Motoki Iwasaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prospective Study ◽  
Dietary Fiber ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Fiber Intake ◽  
Dietary Fiber Intake ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Specific Mortality

ABSTRACT Background An inverse association has been shown between dietary fiber intake and several noncommunicable diseases. However, evidence of this effect remains unclear in the Asian population. Objective We examined the association between dietary fiber intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as the association between fiber intake from dietary sources and all-cause mortality. Methods We conducted a large-scale population-based cohort study (Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study). A validated questionnaire with 138 food items was completed by 92,924 participants (42,754 men and 50,170 women) aged 45–74 y. Dietary fiber intake was calculated and divided into quintiles. HR and 95% CI of total and cause-specific mortality were reported. Results During the mean follow-up of 16.8 y, 19,400 deaths were identified. In multivariable adjusted models, total, soluble, and insoluble fiber intakes were inversely associated with all-cause mortality. The HRs of total mortality in the highest quintile of total fiber intake compared with the lowest quintile were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.82; Ptrend &lt;0.0001) in men and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.89; Ptrend &lt;0.0001) in women. Increased quintiles of dietary fiber intake were significantly associated with decreased mortality due to total cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and injury in both men and women, whereas dietary fiber intake was inversely associated with cancer mortality in men but not women. Fiber from fruits, beans, and vegetables, but not from cereals, was inversely associated with total mortality. Conclusion In this large-scale prospective study with a long follow-up period, dietary fiber was inversely associated with all-cause mortality. Since intakes of dietary fiber, mainly from fruits, vegetables, and beans were associated with lower all-cause mortality, these food sources may be good options for people aiming to consume more fiber.

scholarly journals Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela A. Mulligan ◽  
Marleen A. H. Lentjes ◽  
Robert N. Luben ◽  
Nicholas J. Wareham ◽  
Kay-Tee Khaw
Keyword(s):  
Weight Loss ◽  
Waist Circumference ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Central Adiposity ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Cvd Mortality ◽  
Prospective Investigation

Abstract Background Measures of abdominal adiposity are strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data are limited and conflicting regarding the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. The main aims of this paper are to investigate the association between changes in waist circumference (WC) and all-cause and CVD mortality and to examine these changes in relation to concurrent changes in weight. Methods The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997, aged 39–79, a number of whom also attended a second examination (1998–2000), and were followed up to 2016 for mortality. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they had WC, weight and height measurements at both time-points; those with a self-reported history of CVD or cancer, body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2 or missing data on covariates were excluded, leaving 12,337 participants for analyses. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 16.4 (15.7, 17.2) years. Hazard Ratios (HRs) for all-cause (2866 deaths) and CVD mortality (822 deaths), by categories of WC change, were determined using Cox proportional hazards analyses. Results After multivariable adjustment, the HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality for men and women with a WC gain (WCG) >  5 cm were 1.51 (1.29–1.75) and 1.25 (1.06–1.46) respectively. For CVD mortality in men and women with a WCG >  5 cm, the HRs were 1.84 (1.39–2.43) and 1.15 (0.85–1.55) respectively. In analyses of concurrent changes in WC and weight, the greatest risk (HRs) (95% CIs) in men occurred with weight loss and WCG: 1.80 (1.13–2.86) for all-cause and 2.22 (1.03–4.82) for CVD mortality. In women, the greatest risk for both all-cause (HR 1.50 (1.16–1.95)) and CVD mortality (HR 1.81 (1.15–2.85)) was observed in those with weight loss and maintenance of WC (WCM). Conclusions Objectively measured WCG > 5 cm, was associated with subsequent higher total mortality risk and higher CVD mortality risk in men. Interventions focusing on preventing increase in central adiposity rather than lowering weight per se in later life may potentially have greater health benefits.

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