scholarly journals Evolution of COVID-19 during the epidemiological week 16 to 53 of 2020 in the state of Acre Western Amazonia, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 425-435
Author(s):  
Edimilson Lima de Assis ◽  
Mauro José de Deus Morais ◽  
Jorge De Oliveira Eichemberg ◽  
Valéria Rigamonte Azevedo de Assis ◽  
Hugo Macedo Junior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Skin Color ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Rna Viruses ◽  
The State ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
State Capital ◽  
Over Time

Introduction: coronavirus is part of a group of RNA viruses belonging to the Coronaviridae family, widely distributed in humans and other mammals. Currently, it has been seriously affecting the whole world, without a definitive cure yet. Objective: to analyse the association between the HDI and confirmed cumulative cases of COVID-19 that occurred during epidemiological week 16 to 53 of 2020, in the State of Acre. Methods: this is an ecological study of descriptive time series, evaluating the State of Acre and its 22 municipalities affected by COVID-19, in the period corresponding to the epidemiological weeks 16 to 53 of 2020. The State of Acre and its municipalities are aggregated by five regions with a total of approximately 881 thousand inhabitants, with an HDI of 0.663. Rio Branco is the state capital with 407,000 inhabitants. The 22 municipalities were analyzed, relating the HDI variables, confirmed cases per day and number of inhabitants to each other. Results: it was observed that the population evaluated, affected by COVID-19 during SE 16 to 53 of 2020, in the State of Acre, had as predominant general characteristics brown skin color, male sex, and the evolution to death from the disease was related with older age and comorbidity. Acre had a mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) of 90.9 and a lethality rate of 1.9%, with the highest mortality rate observed in the municipality of Rio Branco (121.3/100,000 inhabitants) and lethality in Rodrigues Alves (2.9%). The incidence of COVID-19 in Acre was 4,759.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the municipalities of Assis Brasil and Xapuri had the highest incidences in the state with 10273.7 and 9330.8 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Conclusion: although the accumulated numbers of cases are different for the same day, the behavior is very similar, that is, the curves vary in the same way over time, regardless of the municipality observed.

An Advanced Formulation of Kalman Filter Time Series Reference Frame Realization for Geophysical Applications

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Wu ◽  
Bruce Haines ◽  
Michael Heflin ◽  
Felix Landerer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Reference Frame ◽  
State Vector ◽  
Terrestrial Reference Frame ◽  
Covariance Matrices ◽  
Time Variable ◽  
The State ◽  
Geocenter Motion ◽  
Over Time

<p>A Kalman filter and time series approach to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) realization (KALREF) has been developed and used in JPL. KALREF combines weekly or daily SLR, VLBI, GNSS and DORIS data and realizes a terrestrial reference frame in the form of time-variable geocentric station coordinate time series. The origin is defined at nearly instantaneous Center-of-Mass of the Earth system (CM) sensed by weekly SLR data and the scale is implicitly defined by the weighted averages of those of weekly SLR and daily VLBI data. The standard KALREF formulation describes the state vector in terms of time variable station coordinates and other constant parameters. Such a formulation is fine for station positions and their uncertainties or covariance matrices at individual epochs. However, coordinate errors are strongly correlated over time given KALREF’s unique nature of combining different technique data with various frame strengths through local tie measurements and co-motion constraints and its use of random walk processes. For long time series and large space geodetic networks in the ITRF, KALREF cannot keep track of such correlations over time. If they are ignored when forming geocentric displacements for geophysical inverse or network shift geocenter motion studies, the covariance matrices of coordinate differences cannot adequately represent those of displacements. Consequently, significant non-uniqueness and inaccuracies would occur in the results of studies using such matrices. To overcome this difficulty, an advanced KALREF formulation is implemented that features explicit displacement parameters in the state vector that would allow the Kalman filter and smoother to compute and return covariance matrices of displacements. The use of displacement covariance matrices reduces the impact of time correlated errors and completely solves the non-uniqueness problem. However, errors in the displacements are still correlated in time. Further calibrations are needed to accurately assess covariance matrices of derivative quantities such as averages, velocities and accelerations during various time periods. We will present KALREF results of the new formulation and their use along with newly reprocessed RL06 GRACE gravity data in a new unified inversion for geocenter motion.</p>

scholarly journals Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: analysis of admissions and mortality time series

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 318-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suellen Carvalho de Moura Braz ◽  
Myllena de Fátima Alheiros Dias Melo ◽  
Virginia Maria Barros de Lorena ◽  
Wayner Vieira de Souza ◽  
Yara de Miranda Gomes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Chagas Disease ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
National Average ◽  
The State ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
National Mortality ◽  
National Information ◽  
And Control

INTRODUCTION: A time series study of admissions, deaths and acute cases was conducted in order to evaluate the context of Chagas disease in Pernambuco. METHODS: Data reported to the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Health Service between 1980 and 2008 was collected for regions and Federal Units of Brazil; and microregions and municipalities of Pernambuco. Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) of hospitalization, mortality and acute cases were calculated using a national hospital database (SIH), a national mortality database (SIM) and the national Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), respectively. RESULTS: The national average for Chagas disease admissions was 0.99 from 1995 to 2008. Pernambuco obtained a mean of 0.39 in the same period, with the highest rates being concentrated in the interior of the state. The state obtained a mean mortality rate of 1.56 between 1980 and 2007, which was lower than the national average (3.66). The mortality rate has tended to decline nationally, while it has remained relatively unchanged in Pernambuco. Interpolating national rates of admissions and deaths, mortality rates were higher than hospitalization rates between 1995 and 2007. The same occurred in Pernambuco, except for 2003. Between 2001 and 2006, rates for acute cases were 0.56 and 0.21 for Brazil and Pernambuco, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although a decrease in Chagas mortality has occurred in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem, especially in the Northeast region. It is thus essential that medical care, prevention and control regarding Chagas disease be maintained and improved.

Defining the Minimal Clinically Important Difference and Patient Acceptable Symptom State for Microfracture of the Knee: A Psychometric Analysis at Short-term Follow-up

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 876-883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Chahla ◽  
Kyle N. Kunze ◽  
Tracy Tauro ◽  
Joshua Wright-Chisem ◽  
Brady T. Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Minimal Clinically Important Difference ◽  
Lesion Size ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Distribution Method ◽  
Pain Scores ◽  
Clinically Important Difference ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
Patient Acceptable Symptom State ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Over Time

Background: Several studies have investigated failure rates and magnitude of improvement in patient-reported outcome measures after microfracture surgery for focal chondral defects of the knee; however; what constitutes clinically significant improvement in this patient population is poorly understood. Purpose: To (1) establish the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and patient acceptable symptom state (PASS) thresholds for microfracture surgery including the time-dependent nature of these thresholds and (2) identify predictors of achieving the MCID and PASS in patients specifically undergoing microfracture of the knee. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: A secure institutional cartilage preservation repository was queried for all patients who underwent microfracture between 2004 and 2017. The distribution method was used to calculate MCID thresholds for the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) score and the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), whereas an anchor-based method was used for the PASS. Multivariate logistic regressions were constructed to determine predictors of achieving the MCID and PASS. Results: A total of 206 patients with a mean ± SD age of 33.7 ± 13.2 years and body mass index of 26.9 ± 5.3 kg/m2 were included. All thresholds for the MCID and PASS increased over time except for the MCID thresholds for the KOOS Sports and Symptoms subscales. The proportion of patients who achieved the MCID (6 months, 78.4%; 12 months, 83.9%; 24 months, 88.6%) and PASS (6 months, 67.7%; 12 months, 79.2%; 24 months, 76.1%) generally increased over time. Older age and larger lesion size were negative independent predictors of MCID achievement. Older age was also a negative predictor of the PASS, whereas male sex and higher preoperative KOOS Symptoms and Pain scores were positive independent predictors of the PASS. Conclusion: The MCID and PASS thresholds for the IKDC and KOOS in patients undergoing microfracture of the knee are dynamic, with an increasing number of patients achieving the MCID over time. The percentage achieving the PASS increased between 6 and 12 months and then declined slightly at 24 months. Independent predictors of achieving the MCID were lesion size and age at surgery, whereas predictors of achieving the PASS included lesion size, male sex, and greater preoperative KOOS Symptoms and Pain scores.

scholarly journals Deaths due to meningococcal infection in Brazil: analysis from 2009 to 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raimundo Maurício dos Santos ◽  
Felipe Eberhart Figur ◽  
Igor José Colcenti ◽  
Gustavo Roberto Minetto Wegner ◽  
Sarah Gondim Santos Paulino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Skin Color ◽  
Direct Contact ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Meningococcal Infection ◽  
White Skin ◽  
Nasal Secretions ◽  
Children And Young Adults

Background: Meningococcal disease is an acute and rapidly fatal infection caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis. It can cause meningitis and severe meningococcemia, being more frequent in children and young adults. Transmission occurs through direct contact with oral nasal secretions. Objectives: Describe the mortality rate and characteristics of patients who died of meningococcal infection in Brazil. Design and setting: Descriptive ecological study conducted with data accessed from SIM - DATASUS. Methods: National notifications from 2009 to 2019 were included and the variables to be analyzed. The frequencies and the mortality rate were calculated. Results: 3,383 deaths were reported and there was a 37% decrease in the period, from 0.24 / 100,000 inhabitants in 2009 to 0.09 / 100,000 in 2019. Most cases occurred in males (55.5%), aged 1 to 9 years (29.1%), non-white skin color (49.3%), 1 to 7 years of schooling (54%) and single marital status (67.4%). Conclusions: The number of deaths from meningococcal infection declined in the period. In an effort to promote a more significant reduction in mortality rates, there is a need for continuous diagnosis and early treatment, in addition to prevention through vaccination.

scholarly journals COVID-19 mortality and lethality in the State of Pará, legal Amazon, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 390-396
Author(s):  
Célia Guarnieri da Silva ◽  
Luiz Vinicius de Alcantara Sousa ◽  
Laércio Da Silva Paiva ◽  
Tassiane Cristina Morais ◽  
Mariane Albuquerque Lima Ribeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
The State ◽  
The North ◽  
Series Design ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Second Wave

Introduction: the growth of coronavirus indices in the North region highlights the region’s historical social inequalities and the problems in accessing citizenship. Objective: to analyze the mortality and lethality of COVID-19 in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods: this is an ecological study with a time series design of secondary data. All registered cases and deaths reported by COVID-19 in the period from March 2020 to June 2021, in the state of Pará, Brazil, were considered. The incidence and mortality and lethality rates were used. The daily percentage variation and their respective 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Results: the total number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the state of Pará was 552,937 and 15,469, respectively, from March 2020 to June 2021. Incidence and mortality rates from March 2020 to June 2021 were, respectively, 6,407.9 and 179.3 per 100,000 inhabitants and the lethality was 43.3. Regarding the analysis of the daily trend of rates in the period from March 2020 to June 2021, both mortality and incidence increased. Conclusion: it was found that the behavior of the trend of rates in the first wave was increasing in the incidence of confirmed cases and the lethality decreasing, and in the second wave, the mortality and lethality rates were increasing.

scholarly journals O atual e preocupante perfil epidemiológico da coqueluche no Brasil - The current and worrisome epidemiology of pertussis in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Lucas Mike Naves Silva ◽  
Annah Rachel Graciano ◽  
Priscilla Dos Santos Decembre Montalvão ◽  
Cristiana Marinho de Jesus França
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Whooping Cough ◽  
Great Increase ◽  
A Value ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Group Methods ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
One Year ◽  
Methods Analytical

ResumoObjetivo: Analisar a prevalência de coqueluche no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2014 e a taxa de mortalidade entre 2000 e 2013, fazendo correlação com a distribuição por sexo e idade. Métodos: Estudo ecológico analítico com delineamento de tendência temporal. Para a obtenção de dados foram utilizadas as fontes SIH, SIM, SINAN e IBGE.  As variáveis analisadas referem-se ao sexo e à idade. Resultados: Houve grande aumento na prevalência da coqueluche no Brasil. Em 2000, a prevalência por 100.000 habitantes foi de 0.5 (IC 95%: 0.48 – 0.54), saltando, em 2014, para 2.43 (IC 95%: 2.36 – 2.50). As crianças menores de um ano são as mais acometidas. Ambos os sexos apresentaram taxa de prevalência maior em 2014, quando o sexo masculino alcançou taxa de 2.3 (IC 95%: 2.21 – 2.4) e, o feminino, de 2.55 para cada 100.000 habitantes (IC 95%: 2.46 – 2.65). A taxa de mortalidade por coqueluche cresceu no período estudado. Em 2000, essa taxa era de 0.53 para cada 100.000 habitantes (IC 95%: 0.23 – 1.24), atingindo o mínimo em 2006, com valor de apenas 0.1 (IC 95%: 0.2 – 0.55). A mortalidade pela doença alcançou seu pico no ano seguinte, com taxa de 13.46 (IC 95%: 11.41 – 15.87). Conclusões: O panorama da coqueluche no Brasil vem se mostrando desfavorável nos últimos anos, uma vez que a prevalência e a mortalidade aumentaram bastante no período de tempo estudado. As crianças menores de 1 ano são as mais acometidas pela doença, que não exibe predileção significativa em se tratando de sexo.Palavras-chave:Coqueluche. Epidemiologia. Prevalência. Mortalidade. AbstractObjective:  To analyze the prevalence of pertussis (whooping cough) in Brazil between 2000 and 2014, and the mortality rate between 2000 and 2013, correlating with the distribution by sex and age group. Methods: Analytical ecological study with temporal design. For data collection, were used as sources SIH, SIM, SINAN and IBGE. The variables analyzed were gender and age. Results: There was a great increase in whooping cough prevalence in Brazil. In 2000, the prevalence in 100.000 inhabitants was 0.5 (95% CI: 0.48 – 0.54), jumping in 2014, to 2.43 (95% CI: 2.36 – 2.50). Children under one year are the most affected. Both sexes presented a higher prevalence rate in 2014, when male sex reached a rate of 2.3 (95% CI: 2.21 - 2.4) and, the female, 2.55 for every 100,000 (95% CI: 2.46 - 2.65). The mortality rate for whooping cough increased during the study period. In 2000, the rate was 0.53 per 100.000 inhabitants (95% CI: 0.23 – 1.24), reaching the minimum in 2006, with a value of 0.1 (95% CI: 0.2 – 0.55). The mortality from the disease reached the higher value in the following year, in 2007, with a rate of 13.46 (95% CI: 11.41 – 15.87). Conclusions:The panorama of whooping cough in Brazil has been unfavorable in the last years, since the prevalence and the mortality increased considerably in the period of time studied. Children younger than 1 year are the most affected by the disease, which does not show a significant predilection when it comes to sex.Keyword:Whooping cough.Epidemiology. Prevalence.Mortality.

scholarly journals Using Graph Spectral to solve Change Point Detection Problems

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Gustavo C. Uzai ◽  
André Y. Kashiwabara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Change Point ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
The State ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Graph Spectrum ◽  
Point Detection ◽  
Over Time

Time series are sequence of values distributed over time. Analyzing time series is important in many areas including medical, financial, aerospace, commercial and entertainment. Change Point Detection is the problem of identifying changes in meaning or distribution of data in a time series. This article presents Spec, a new algorithm that uses the graph spectrum to detect change points. The Spec was evaluated using the UCR Archive which is a large da- tabase of different time series. Spec performance was compared to the PELT, ECP, EDM, and gSeg algorithms. The results showed that Spec achieved a better accuracy compared to the state of the art in some specific scenarios and as efficient as in most cases evaluated.

scholarly journals Epidemiological overview of AIDS in elderly people in the state of Santa Catarina from 2008 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geovana Elizabeth Miotto ◽  
Betine Pinto Moehlecke Iser ◽  
Bruno Tafarel Ribeiro ◽  
Fernanda Brigido Castilhos ◽  
Daniel Albrecht Iser
Keyword(s):  
Skin Color ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
The State ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Elderly Individuals ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Introduction: In recent years there has been an increase in the number of AIDS diagnoses in the general population, with a significant growth among elderly individuals. Objective: To analyze the epidemiological situation of AIDS in the elderly population and its temporal trend in the Santa Catarina State. Methods: Ecological study, conducted with the elderly (≥60 years) living in Santa Catarina, who were diagnosed with AIDS and notified in the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) from 2008 to 2018. The incidence rate according to sex, age group and health macro-region was calculated, as well as the time trend, through linear regression. Race/skin color and scholarity were analyzed by proportion in relation to the total. Results: 1,365 cases were notified from 2008 to 2018. There was an increase in cases from 6,7/100.000 in 2008 to 23,1 in 2018 (1,77% yearly), higher among men aged 60 to 69 and living in the area of Florianópolis. Conclusion: there was an increase in AIDS notifications among the elderly in the state.

scholarly journals Decline of mortality from cervical cancer

2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 585-590
Author(s):  
Suelayne Gonçalves do Nascimento ◽  
Cleonice Patrícia Andrade Lima de Carvalho ◽  
Ricarlly Soares da Silva ◽  
Conceição Maria de Oliveira ◽  
Cristine Vieira do Bonfim
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Skin Color ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Therapeutic Strategies ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Education Programs ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Using Data

ABSTRACT Objective: To describe occurrences of mortality due to cervical cancer in Recife (PE), in northeastern Brazil. Method: This was a time-series ecological study using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) regarding the total number of deaths due to cervical cancer (C53 ICD10) that occurred between 2000 and 2012. Results: It was observed that the risk of death due to this form of cancer was higher among women over 60 years of age, those of mixed skin color (53.24%), those who only worked at home (63.16%) and those who did not have a partner (44.32%). Conclusion: Additional efforts towards maintaining early detection and health education programs and towards using therapeutic strategies of greater efficiency are needed, given that mortality due to this form of cancer is considered avoidable when diagnosed early.

scholarly journals Leprosy prevalence, grade II rate of physical disability and proportion of multibacillary cases: A paradox that shows late diagnosis and hidden prevalence?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Gomes Santos ◽  
Thiago Cavalcanti Leal ◽  
Leonardo Feitosa da Silva ◽  
Anderson da Costa Armstrong ◽  
Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Physical Disability ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
The State ◽  
Late Diagnosis ◽  
Unit Of Analysis ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Grade Ii ◽  
Late Detection

Introduction: In the last decades the number of leprosy cases has been decreasing in the world. This reduction has been questioned by researchers who believe there are more patients. Objectives: To analyze the temporal evolution of three epidemiological indicators (prevalence rate, grade II rate of physical disability and proportion of multibacillary cases) in order to find evidence of late diagnosis and hidden prevalence of leprosy in the state of Bahia, Brazil. Design and setting: This is an ecological study of time series. The unit of analysis was Bahia, Brazil. Methods: The data were obtained the DATASUS platform (http://datasus. saude.gov.br/). The inflection point regression model (joinpoint) was applied to assess the trend of the indicators from 2001 to 2015. The significance level of 5% and 95% confidence interval(95% CI). Results: There was a tendency to reduce the prevalence (AAPC -5.5%;p <0.001) accompanied by an increase in the rate of grade II (AAPC 2.7%; p <0.001). The presence of disabled individuals in the diagnosis, in addition to signaling for the late detection of the case, reflects the transcendence of the disease, that is, its social value. Finally, there was an increase in the proportion of multibacillary cases, increasing from 48.8% at the beginning of the time series to 66.5% at the end of it (AAPC 2.2%;p <0.001). Conclusions: This paradox suggests the existence of a late diagnosis and hidden prevalence in the state. Thus, the need to implement actions that make the diagnosis of new cases, reinforcing the hidden burden of leprosy and transmission, is reinforced.

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