Forecasted Inflation Based Block Replacement Model Using Stochastic Process

2014 ◽  
Vol 592-594 ◽  
pp. 2716-2722
Author(s):  
B. Srinivas ◽  
S. Gajanana ◽  
K. Hemachandra Reddy
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Present Model ◽  
Entire Group ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuation ◽  
Optimal Replacement ◽  
Replacement Model ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Replacement Time ◽  
The Ideal

The replacement problems are concerned with the situation that arises on decrease in the efficiency of the item, failure or breakdown. The problem of replacement is to identify the best policy to determine the ideal replacement time which is most economical. Group replacement model is applicable to the items that fail completely on usage and the result is group replacement age for the entire group of items in the system irrespective of whether they are functioning or not. The present paper proposes intermediate states i.e., minor repair and major repair states in between functioning and irreparable breakdown states. In addition, higher order Markov chains are used in generating the probabilities of items which are falling in different states. In order to consider money value, macro-economic variable, inflation is considered in this model. In the present model, real interest rates are calculated using forecasted inflation for future periods. Future period values of inflation are predicted by using the forecasting technique and a regression model with trigonometric function. These methods are used to accommodate cyclical fluctuation in the prices of items/inflation. The optimal replacement age is the time bucket in which the average cost of the individual replacement, repair and the cost of the items is minimum.

scholarly journals Replacement Model for Street Lighting Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-55
Author(s):  
A.M. Usman ◽  
Y.A. Adediran ◽  
A.O. Otuoze ◽  
O.O. Mohammed ◽  
O.S. Zakariyya
Keyword(s):  
Field Survey ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
North Central ◽  
Street Lighting ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Optimal Replacement ◽  
Replacement Model ◽  
Lighting Systems ◽  
The University ◽  
Replacement Time

Replacing failed bulbs of streetlights in a location can be very tasking and expensive if the optimal time for replacement is not determined. In this paper, a model has been developed that helps to establish the optimal time for the replacement of streetlight bulbs. Burnt-out bulbs are replaced individually when they fail, and group replacement is carried out on all bulbs after a specified time. The costs for both individual replacement and group replacement are determined. The developed model was applied to locally sourced data from a field survey of a streetlight installation at the University of Ilorin, Ilorin, North-central Nigeria. The model gave the optimum replacement time of burnt-out bulbs as the eighteenth week when applied to the data used in this work. The optimum replacement time will be dependent on the dataset used. This makes the developed model useful in establishing the optimal replacement time of any stochastically failing items that are in large quantities. The model will help to reduce maintenance costs for facility managers.

scholarly journals Delayed Age Replacement Policy with Uncertain Lifetime

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueyan Li ◽  
Chunxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Time Span ◽  
Replacement Policy ◽  
Infinite Time ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Optimal Replacement ◽  
Replacement Model ◽  
Age Replacement ◽  
Uncertain Distribution ◽  
Replacement Time

This paper considers the delayed age replacement policy, in which the lifetimes of all units are assumed to be uncertain variables, and the lifetime of the first unit has an uncertainty distribution which is different from the others. A delayed age replacement model which is concerned with finding the optimal replacement time to minimize the expected cost is developed. In the policy, the optimal replacement time is irrelevant to the uncertain distribution of lifetime of the first unit over the infinite time span.

THEORETICAL PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING THE COST OF A SOFTWARE PRODUCT

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavlo Rodionov ◽  
◽  
Anna Ploskonos ◽  
Lesya Gavrutenko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Software Products ◽  
Software Product ◽  
Continue Research ◽  
Cocomo Model ◽  
Factors Of Influence ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

The paper analyzes the factors that affect the amount of effort required to create a mobile application and its cost. It is established that the main factors of influence are the design of the application, its functionality, the type of mobile platform, the availability and level of testing and support, as well as the individual characteristics of the developer. Based on the analysis of information sources, the main methods and approaches to forecasting the cost of software products are identified, which include the COCOMO model, Price-to-win method, expert evaluation, algorithmic methods and the method of analogies. It is proposed to consider the method of analogies as a tool that allows you to make predictions about the cost of resources required for the successful implementation of IT projects based on the experience of similar projects. It is proved that the advantages of this method are the simplicity of its implementation and the clarity of the results obtained, which follows from the practical orientation of this tool. Among the limitations of the method of analogy is the mandatory need for reliable data relating to similar projects, as well as the difficulty of taking into account unspecified indicators. Taking into account the mentioned limitations of the method of analogies and on the basis of the analysis of scientific sources the possible directions of its optimization are determined. Thus, among the ways to improve the effectiveness of this method are those aimed at optimizing the project selection process, the data for which are used as a basis for forecasting. Attempts to improve the method of analogies by including parameters that were previously ignored by this technique seem promising. This in turn can lead to an expansion of the scope of the method of analogies and increase the accuracy of forecasts. As prospects for further research, the need to continue research in the field of optimization of the method of analogies with the subsequent practical verification of theoretical positions on the data of real projects.

FUNCTIONING OF THE MENTAL DEFENSES IN THE CONDUCT OF INTERROGATION WITHIN THE CRIMINAL PROCESS

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2161-2165
Author(s):  
Hristo Ivanov Popnikolov
Keyword(s):  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Critical Conditions ◽  
Criminal Process ◽  
External Influences ◽  
Administration Of Justice ◽  
Individual Protection ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Subjective Side

From the subject presented in the report it is evident that the pre-trial and the court bodies may, to some extent, be influenced both by the person of the accused and by his competence to participate in the criminal process. In this regard as an expert, the psychologist can offer invaluable assistance. Each expertise would assist all actors involved in the administration of justice on their objective assessment of the offenders, the understanding of their individual protection and the inherent self-justification during procedural actions. The involvement of psychologists in the criminal process is key to establishing the truth in the investigation, because every crime as an act has a subjective side, expressed in the psychic attitude of the perpetrator to the committed act. Establishing these psychological motives is a key point in the criminal process with a view to establishing the truth.Psychological protection stabilizes the personality in the critical conditions of counteraction, related to the elimination of the experiences of tension, anxiety, stress and frustration, leading to maximum mobilization of its resources and at the same time to their overpayment. Thus, the individual who is the subject of the process action is protected against the adverse external influences, but at the cost of a lot of effort and enormous loss of nervous-mental energy, which increases his own vulnerability instead of contributing to its reduction. The appearance and functioning of psychological protection can be significantly impeded by the interaction of the investigator with the accused. Even more complicated is the situation when it breaks the communication contact that may arise in the psychological alienation and self-isolation of the accused due to the desire to protect himself.Protective psychological dominance is a real psychic activity that investigators, investigators, investigators and judges need to take into account in order to effectively deal with their task and to overcome the resistance of the investigated persons and in a time to prove in a lawful and moral way their guilt and participation in the commitment of the crimes.

Automated Control of the Microclimate in the Premises of Pig-Breeding Complexes

2020 ◽  
pp. 103-108
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Yu. Ukhanova
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Feed Consumption ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Research Purpose ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Pig Farming ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

In the pig breeding, a large share of the production cost is accounted for by the cost of electricity and heat. Reducing energy costs is one of the important tasks of the industry. It is important to identify and study modern technologies and equipment for pig farming due to the constant increase in electricity tariffs, significant energy costs for creating and maintaining a microclimate. (Research purpose) The research purpose is in an analysis of modern available technologies and equipment for agricultural production, including pig farming, allowing to reduce the cost of production. (Materials and methods) Authors used a method for determining the standard indicators of energy consumption of energy resources in the pig industry, based on the calculation and analytical method. The article presents an analyze of automated microclimate management systems in pig breeding complexes, taking into account the individual characteristics of farms produced by OWEN. (Results and discussion) Automated microclimate management systems can improve the productivity of pig farms; reduce the cost of electrical and thermal energy, reduce the number of diseases of animal from hypothermia, high humidity or temperature in the room, feed consumption; monitor the chemical composition of the air. The article considers three options for creating a microclimate in rooms with animals, taking into account the individual characteristics of enterprises. (Conclusions) The profitability of pig production depend on the level of technical equipment of farms, automation, and the use of energy-saving technologies and equipment. The use of innovations in agricultural production makes it possible to increase labor productivity up to three times, and savings due to reduced feed costs can reach several million rubles a year.

The Republic

2019 ◽  
pp. 205-229
Author(s):  
Dominic Scott
Keyword(s):  
Political Theory ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Ideal State ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Individual Justice ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Political Right ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Ideal

This chapter presents a reading of Plato’s Republic. The Republic is among Plato’s most complex works. From its title, the first-time reader will expect a dialogue about political theory, yet the work starts from the perspective of the individual, coming to focus on the question of how, if at all, justice contributes to an agent’s happiness. Only after this question has been fully set out does the work evolve into an investigation of politics—of the ideal state and of the institutions that sustain it, especially those having to do with education. But the interest in individual justice and happiness is never left behind. Rather, the work weaves in and out of the two perspectives, individual and political, right through to its conclusion. All this may leave one wondering about the unity of the work. The chapter shows that, despite the enormous range of topics discussed, the Republic fits together as a coherent whole.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of an Exercise Programme that Provided Group or Individual Training to Reduce the Fall Risk in Healthy Community-Dwelling People Aged 65–80: A Secondary Data Analysis

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 714
Author(s):  
Isaac Aranda-Reneo ◽  
Laura Albornos-Muñoz ◽  
Manuel Rich-Ruiz ◽  
María Ángeles Cidoncha-Moreno ◽  
Ángeles Pastor-López ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Older People ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Individual Training

Research has demonstrated that some exercise programs are effective for reducing fall rates in community-dwelling older people; however, the literature is limited in providing clear recommendations of individual or group training as a result of economic evaluation. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the Otago Exercise Program (OEP) for reducing the fall risk in healthy, non-institutionalized older people. An economic evaluation of a multicenter, blinded, randomized, non-inferiority clinical trial was performed on 498 patients aged over 65 in primary care. Participants were randomly allocated to the treatment or control arms, and group or individual training. The program was delivered in primary healthcare settings and comprised five initial sessions, ongoing encouragement and support to exercise at home, and a reinforcement session after six months. Our hypothesis was that the patients who received the intervention would achieve better health outcomes and therefore need lower healthcare resources during the follow-up, thus, lower healthcare costs. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which used the timed up and go test results as an effective measure for preventing falls. The secondary outcomes included differently validated tools that assessed the fall risk. The cost per patient was USD 51.28 lower for the group than the individual sessions in the control group, and the fall risk was 10% lower when exercises had a group delivery. The OEP program delivered in a group manner was superior to the individual method. We observed slight differences in the incremental cost estimations when using different tools to assess the risk of fall, but all of them indicated the dominance of the intervention group. The OEP group sessions were more cost-effective than the individual sessions, and the fall risk was 10% lower.

Embodying the culture of achievement: Culture between illness and perfection is a ‘thin line’ – obtaining the ideal female body as an act of achievement

2021 ◽  
pp. 1354067X2110040
Author(s):  
Josefine Dilling ◽  
Anders Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Female Body ◽  
The Body ◽  
Thin Line ◽  
Complex Processes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
The Ideal ◽  
Body Ideals

In this article, we argue that certain behaviour connected to the attempt to attain contemporary female body ideals in Denmark can be understood as an act of achievement and, thus, as an embodiment of the culture of achievement, as it is characterised in Præstationssamfundet, written by the Danish sociologist Anders Petersen (2016) Hans Reitzels Forlag . Arguing from cultural psychological and sociological standpoints, this article examines how the human body functions as a mediational tool in different ways from which the individual communicates both moral and aesthetic sociocultural ideals and values. Complex processes of embodiment, we argue, can be described with different levels of internalisation, externalisation and materialisation, where the body functions as a central mediator. Analysing the findings from a qualitative experimental study on contemporary body ideals carried out by the Danish psychologists Josefine Dilling and Maja Trillingsgaard, this article seeks to anchor such theoretical claims in central empirical findings. The main conclusions from the study are used to structure the article and build arguments on how expectations and ideals expressed in an achievement society become embodied.

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