scholarly journals Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12566
Author(s):  
Matthieu Domenech de Cellès ◽  
Jean-Sebastien Casalegno ◽  
Bruno Lina ◽  
Lulla Opatowski
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Infection ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
Mortality Incidence ◽  
The Impact

As in past pandemics, co-circulating pathogens may play a role in the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In particular, experimental evidence indicates that influenza infection can up-regulate the expression of ACE2—the receptor of SARS-CoV-2 in human cells—and facilitate SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we hypothesized that influenza impacted the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early 2020 epidemic of COVID-19 in Europe. To test this hypothesis, we developed a population-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and of COVID-19 mortality, which simultaneously incorporated the impact of non-pharmaceutical control measures and of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Using statistical inference methods based on iterated filtering, we confronted this model with mortality incidence data in four European countries (Belgium, Italy, Norway, and Spain) to systematically test a range of assumptions about the impact of influenza. We found consistent evidence for a 1.8–3.4-fold (uncertainty range across countries: 1.1 to 5.0) average population-level increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with influenza during the period of co-circulation. These estimates remained robust to a variety of alternative assumptions regarding the epidemiological traits of SARS-CoV-2 and the modeled impact of control measures. Although further confirmatory evidence is required, our results suggest that influenza could facilitate the spread and hamper effective control of SARS-CoV-2. More generally, they highlight the possible role of co-circulating pathogens in the epidemiology of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Influenza may facilitate the spread of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Domenech de Celles ◽  
Jean-Sebastien Casalegno ◽  
Bruno Lina ◽  
Lulla Opatowski
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
European Countries ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
Mortality Incidence ◽  
The Impact

As in past pandemics, co-circulating pathogens may play a role in the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Here we hypothesized that influenza interacted with SARS-CoV-2 during the early 2020 epidemic of COVID-19 in Europe. We developed a population-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, combined with mortality incidence data in four European countries, to test a range of assumptions about the impact of influenza. We found consistent evidence for a 2-2.5-fold population-level increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with influenza during the period of co-circulation. These results suggest the need to increase vaccination against influenza, not only to reduce the burden due to influenza viruses, but also to counteract their facilitatory impact on SARS-CoV-2.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals Examining and investigating the impact of demographic characteristics and chronic diseases on mortality of COVID-19: Retrospective study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257131
Author(s):  
Abbas Al Mutair ◽  
Alya Al Mutairi ◽  
Saad Alhumaid ◽  
Syed Maaz Abdullah ◽  
Abdul Rehman Zia Zaidi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

Background Epidemiological features characterization of COVID-19 is highly important for developing and implementing effective control measures. In Saudi Arabia mortality rate varies between 0.6% to 1.26%. The purpose of the study was to investigate whether demographic characteristics (age and gender) and non-communicable diseases (Hypertension and Diabetes mellitus) have a significant association with mortality in COVID-19 patients. Methods Prior to data collection, an expedite approval was obtained from Institutional Review Board (IRB Log No: RC. RC20.09.10) in Al Habib Research Center at Dr. Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Group, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This is a retrospective design where we used descriptive and inferential analysis to analyse the data. Binary logistic regression was done to study the association between comorbidities and mortality of COVID-19. Results 43 (86%) of the male patients were non-survivors while 7 (14%) of the female patients were survivors. The odds of non-survivors among hypertensive patients are 3.56 times higher than those who are not having a history of Hypertension (HTN). The odds of non-survivors among diabetic patients are 5.17 times higher than those who are not having a history of Diabetes mellitus (DM). The odds of non-survivors are 2.77 times higher among those who have a history of HTN and DM as compared to those who did not have a history of HTN and DM. Conclusions Those patients that had a history of Hypertension and Diabetes had a higher probability of non-survival in contrast to those who did not have a history of Diabetes and hypertension. Further studies are required to study the association of comorbidities with COVID-19 and mortality.

Introduction to pertussis transmission and epidemiological dynamics

Pertussis ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 6-25
Author(s):  
Pejman Rohani ◽  
Samuel V. Scarpino
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pertussis Epidemiology

Resolving the long-term, population-level consequences of changes in pertussis epidemiology, arising from bacterial evolution, shifts in vaccine-induced immunity, or changes in surveillance, are key challenges for devising effective control strategies. This chapter reviews some of the key features of pertussis epidemiology, together with the underlying epidemiological principles that set the context for their interpretation. These include the relationship between the age distribution of cases and pertussis transmission potential, the impact of vaccine uptake on incidence, periodicity and age incidence, as well as spatially explicit recurrent pertussis epidemics and associated extinction frequency. This review highlights some of the predictable and consistent aspects of pertussis epidemiology (e.g. the systematic increase in the inter-epidemic period with the introduction of whole-cell vaccines) and a number of important heterogeneities, including variations in contemporary patterns of incidence and geographic spread.

scholarly journals Verticillium Wilt of Olive and Its Control: What Did We Learn during the Last Decade?

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuria Montes-Osuna ◽  
Jesús Mercado-Blanco
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Soil Biology ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Sensing Technology ◽  
Olive Cultivation ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

Verticillium (Verticillium dahliae Kleb.) wilt is one of the most devastating diseases affecting olive (Olea europaea L. subsp. europaea var. europaea) cultivation. Its effective control strongly relies on integrated management strategies. Olive cultivation systems are experiencing important changes (e.g., high-density orchards, etc.) aiming at improving productivity. The impact of these changes on soil biology and the incidence/severity of olive pests and diseases has not yet been sufficiently evaluated. A comprehensive understanding of the biology of the pathogen and its populations, the epidemiological factors contributing to exacerbating the disease, the underlying mechanisms of tolerance/resistance, and the involvement of the olive-associated microbiota in the tree’s health is needed. This knowledge will be instrumental to developing more effective control measures to confront the disease in regions where the pathogen is present, or to exclude it from V. dahliae-free areas. This review compiles the most recent advances achieved to understand the olive–V. dahliae interaction as well as measures to control the disease. Aspects such as the molecular basis of the host–pathogen interaction, the identification of new biocontrol agents, the implementation of “-omics” approaches to unravel the basis of disease tolerance, and the utilization of remote sensing technology for the early detection of pathogen attacks are highlighted.

Traffic dynamics around weaving section influenced by accident: Cellular automata approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (03) ◽  
pp. 1550026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin-Peng Kong ◽  
Xin-Gang Li ◽  
William H. K. Lam
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Management ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Traffic Dynamics ◽  
Traffic Jam ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Capacity ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Accident Conditions ◽  
The Impact

The weaving section, as a typical bottleneck, is one source of vehicle conflicts and an accident-prone area. Traffic accident will block lanes and the road capacity will be reduced. Several models have been established to study the dynamics around traffic bottlenecks. However, little attention has been paid to study the complex traffic dynamics influenced by the combined effects of bottleneck and accident. This paper presents a cellular automaton model to characterize accident-induced traffic behavior around the weaving section. Some effective control measures are proposed and verified for traffic management under accident condition. The total flux as a function of inflow rates, the phase diagrams, the spatial-temporal diagrams, and the density and velocity profiles are presented to analyze the impact of accident. It was shown that the proposed control measures for weaving traffic can improve the capacity of weaving section under both normal and accident conditions; the accidents occurring on median lane in the weaving section are more inclined to cause traffic jam and reduce road capacity; the capacity of weaving section will be greatly reduced when the accident happens downstream the weaving section.

Vulvar cancer in Germany: Increase of incidence and change of tumor-biological characteristics in the period 1974-2013.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e17031-e17031
Author(s):  
Jana Barinoff ◽  
Jalid Sehouli ◽  
Bernd Holleczek
Keyword(s):  
Squamous Cell ◽  
Vulvar Cancer ◽  
Advanced Disease ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Tumor Characteristics ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
The Past ◽  
Icd 10

e17031 Background: Incidence of vulvar cancer in Germany is increasing. Gynecological oncologists reported to observe increasing numbers of women presenting with small tumors. The aim of the presented study is to validate this observation on a population level and to extend available incidence data. Methods: Data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry (CR) were used and included 1,136 female patients diagnosed with invasive vulvar cancer (ICD-10 code: C51) between 1974 and 2013. Multiple imputation methodology was used to overcome loss of precision and potential bias. Incidence trends were investigated with regard to patient and tumor characteristics. Results: During the study period, the age standardized rate of incidence increased from 1.6 to 7.9 cases per 100,000 women per year (+390%). Since 1989, the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma increased from 1.7 to 7.1 (+320%), whereas no increase was observed in other morphologic types. Simultaneously, the incidence of small vulvar tumors <= 2 cm (T1) increased from 0.8 in 1989-93 to 6.6 in 2009-13 (the proportion of T1 tumors increased from 34% to 79%, respectively). Patients aged >= 75 years suffered from more advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. Conclusions: The detailed analyses revealed that the observed increase in vulvar cancer in the past 15 years mainly resulted from newly incident squamous cell carcinomas. Furthermore, the analyses showed an almost exclusive increase of T1 tumors. An increase in vulvar cancer incidence as shown for Germany could not be observed for any other European country.

scholarly journals Approaches to population health care: The emerging context!

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Community Health ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Service Management ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Illness Management ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides a review of recent developments in population-based approaches to community health and explores the origins of the population health concept and its implications for the operation of health service management. There is a growing perception among health professionals that the key to improving health outcomes will be the implementation of integrated and preventive population-based resource management rather than investment in systems that respond to crises and health problems at the acute end of the service provision spectrum only. That is, we will need increasingly to skew our community health and welfare investments towards preventive care, education, lifestyle change, self-management and environmental improvement if we are to reduce the rate of growth in the incidence of chronic disease and mitigate the impact of these diseases upon the acute health care system. While resources will still need to be devoted to the treatment and management of physical trauma, infectious diseases, inherited illness and chronic conditions, it is suggested we could reduce the rate at which demand for these services is increasing at present by managing our environment and communities better, and through the implementation of more effective early intervention programs across particular population groups. Such approaches are known generally as population health management, as opposed to individual or illness - based health management' or even public health - and suggest that health systems might productively focus in the future on population level causation and not just upon disease-specific problems or illness management after the fact. Population health approaches attempt to broaden our understanding of causation and manage health through an emphasis on the health of whole populations and by building healthy communities rather than seeing "health care" as predominantly about illness management or responses to health crises. The concept also presupposes the existence of cleaner and healthier environments, clean water and food, and the existence of vibrant social contexts in which individuals are able to work for the overall good of communities and, ultimately, of each other.

scholarly journals Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 measures, Canada, March to July 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (40) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica E Stockdale ◽  
Renny Doig ◽  
Joosung Min ◽  
Nicola Mulberry ◽  
Liangliang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
The Impact

Background Many countries have implemented population-wide interventions to control COVID-19, with varying extent and success. Many jurisdictions have moved to relax measures, while others have intensified efforts to reduce transmission. Aim We aimed to determine the time frame between a population-level change in COVID-19 measures and its impact on the number of cases. Methods We examined how long it takes for there to be a substantial difference between the number of cases that occur following a change in COVID-19 physical distancing measures and those that would have occurred at baseline. We then examined how long it takes to observe this difference, given delays and noise in reported cases. We used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR)-type model and publicly available data from British Columbia, Canada, collected between March and July 2020. Results It takes 10 days or more before we expect a substantial difference in the number of cases following a change in COVID-19 control measures, but 20–26 days to detect the impact of the change in reported data. The time frames are longer for smaller changes in control measures and are impacted by testing and reporting processes, with delays reaching ≥ 30 days. Conclusion The time until a change in control measures has an observed impact is longer than the mean incubation period of COVID-19 and the commonly used 14-day time period. Policymakers and practitioners should consider this when assessing the impact of policy changes. Rapid, consistent and real-time COVID-19 surveillance is important to minimise these time frames.

scholarly journals Private Religious or Spiritual Activities and its Impact on Life Satisfaction: A Population-based Study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sameer Desai
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Canadian Community Health Survey ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
High Satisfaction ◽  
The Impact

Background: Life satisfaction is considered a valid population-based indicator of health and well-being. Recently, many advances in life satisfaction and well-being have been made by improving social and health policies. However, several countries continue to report low levels of life satisfaction, even among many modern industrialized nations. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of private religious or spiritual activities (PRS) as a possible modifiable, individual-level factor to increase life satisfaction, with population-level health implications.Methods: The analytic sample included 9,627 respondents to the 2011-2012 Canadian Community Health Survey. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between self-reported PRS activities and life satisfaction, adjusted for confounders.Results: After adjusting for the confounders, daily PRS activities was associated with an increased odds of high satisfaction (AOR=1.22, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.78) compared to low satisfaction. Engaging in weekly PRS activities was also associated with an increased odds of high satisfaction (AOR = AOR=1.33, 95% CI: 0.87, 2.02) compared to low satisfaction. Monthly engagement in PRS activities was not associated with increases in life satisfaction. Conclusions: There is a moderate association between the odds of high satisfaction and engaging in PRS activities on a daily or weekly basis. The variability in the CIs of the AORs indicates imprecision in the data; however, the majority of the possible range of effects are beneficial. Countries and other relevant organizations should be cognizant of the possible role that religious and spiritual values may have on life satisfaction, as another factor to explore further for population-level health benefits.

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