The cross-section of expected stock returns and components of idiosyncratic volatility

We examine the relationship between stock returns and components of idiosyncratic volatility—two volatility and two covariance terms— derived from the decomposition of stock returns variance. The portfolio analysis result shows that volatility terms are negatively related to expected stock returns. On the contrary, covariance terms have positive relationships with expected stock returns at the portfolio level. These relationships are robust to controlling for risk factors such as size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, volume, and turnover. Furthermore, the results of Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression show that only alpha risk can explain variations in stock returns at the firm level. Another finding is that when volatility and covariance terms are excluded from idiosyncratic volatility, the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns becomes weak at the portfolio level and disappears at the firm level.

Comparing Patients´ Emotional Experience In Icu with General Wards: A Case Control Study

Background Comparing emotional experiences between patients in ICU and general wards, exploring aspects of patients' relationships with healthcare staff using the Patient Evaluation of Emotional Care during Hospitalisation (PEECH) questionnaire. Methods A project to humanise the ICU had previously been undertaken, heeding the recommendations set out in the Humanisation in Intensive Care Units Best Practices. Based on a preliminary study, an alpha risk of 0.05 and a beta risk of 0.20 was obtained in a two-tailed test. 252 general patients and 252 ICU patients needed to detect a difference equal to or greater than 0.2 units on the PEECH scale. A common standard deviation of 0.8 units was used. 513 questionnaires were collected, 253 from ICU and 260 from patients on general wards. Results Significantly higher scores were achieved by the ICU on sub-scales level of security 2.83 in ICU v. 2.62 on general wards (p < 0.001); level of personal value 2.79 v. 2.57 (p < 0.001); level of knowing 2.64 v. 2.55 (p = 0.035). Not significative differences were found on sub-scale level of connection with mean score of 1.66 v. 1.46 (p = 0.033). Conclusion Significant differences were found on all sub-scales, with the ICU scoring higher than the general wards. On the contrary, no shortcomings were identified for level of security, level of knowing in the care process or level of personal value. The level of connection with staff was not perceived in terms of continuous and coordinated care. Efforts should be made for patients to know the staff caring for them, especially in short stays.

THU0464 USE OF BENZODIAZEPINES AND ANTIDEPRESSANTS IN PATIENTS WHO ATTEND A RHEUMATOLOGY CLINIC

Background:During the last decades, anxiolytics and antidepressants (ADP) have been among the most prescribed therapies in all developed countries (1). In Spain a prevalence of use of 11.4% was communicated (2), slightly over the European average (3,4). They have potential addiction problems and side effects.Objectives:The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of anxiolytics and antidepressants among patients who attend a Rheumatology consult, as well as the indication for them.Methods:Patients who were referred for the first time to the Rheumatology consult were included. Demographical data, reason for referral and final diagnosis were recorded. Regarding the treatment with ADP or/and benzodiazepines (BDZ), their duration and the indication for the prescription were recorded. Sample size was estimated for a 0.05% alpha risk. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate analyses (ANOVA) were performed in order to study the prevalence of these treatments, and their associations with demographical or clinical characteristics. The study was approved by the Hospital Universitario de Elche Ethics Committee.Results:350 patients were included (women 77.1%, men 22.9%), mean age 58.1 yo. 40% were occupied and 31.4% were unemployed. The majority were married or lived with a couple (71.4%). Most of them had been referred for musculoskeletal pain (73.4%). More than a third (39.4%) were on BZD and/or ADP: 107 patients were on BZD (30.6%), 68 were on ADP (19.4%), and 47 (13.4%) were on both. The most frequent reasons for their prescription were anxiety, depression and insomnia. The final diagnosis in the clinic was a non-inflammatory condition in 53.1%, and inflammatory in 18%. In the univariate analyses, the use of BZD/ADP was not associated with civil status, but it was associated with female sex (p<0.001), unemployment (p<0.001) and non-inflammatory final diagnosis (p<0.001). In the multivariate analyses, the use of BZD and/or ADP was associated with female sex (p=0.002 [RR 3.4, CI 95% 1.6-7.4]) and non-inflammatory final diagnosis, specifically fibromyalgia (p= 0.007 [RR 16.1, CI 95% 2.2-120.7]).Conclusion:The use of anxiolytics and antidepressants is frequent in the patients referred to the Rheumatology clinic, and it’s associated to female sex and non-inflammatory conditions, over all fibromyalgia.References:[1]Lagnaoui R, Depont F, Fourrier A, Abouelfath A, Bégaud B, Verdoux H, et al. Patterns and correlates of benzodiazepine use in the French general population. Eur J Clin Pharmacol. 2004;60:523-9.[2]Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad. Secretaría de Estado de Servicios Sociales e Igualdad. Delegación del Gobierno para el Plan Nacional sobre Droga. Encuesta sobre alcohol y drogas en población general en España: EDADES 2011-2012. 2013. Disponible en:http://www.pnsd.msc.es/Categoria2/observa/pdf/EDADES2011.pdf[3]Simó Miñana J. Utilización de medicamentos en España y en Europa. Aten Primaria. 2012; 44:335-47.[4]Khong TP, de Vries F, Goldenberg JS, Klungel OH, Robinson NJ, Ibáñez L, Petri H. Potential impact of benzodiazepine use on the rate of hip fractures in five large European countries and the Unite d States Calcif Tissue Int. 2012;91:24-31.Disclosure of Interests: :None declared

Interest of short hormonotherapy (HT) associated with radiotherapy (RT) as salvage treatment for metastatic free survival (MFS) after radical prostatectomy (RP): Update at 9 years of the GETUG-AFU 16 phase III randomized trial (NCT00423475).

5001 Background: RT is the standard salvage treatment after RP. The role of HT is not formally demonstrated to date. This trial assessed the efficacy of RT alone vs RT+HT in terms of progression-free survival (PFS), metastase-free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with biological relapse (BR) after RP. After a median follow-up (FU) duration of 5.3 years, we previously reported [Carrie C, Lancet Oncol 2016] a benefit in PFS (80% vs 62% PFS free at 5 years; p < 0.0001) in the combined arm, whatever the risk subgroups. Methods: Patients (pts) were randomized (1:1) to RT alone or RT+HT (goserelin, for 6 months). The randomization was stratified according to radiotherapy modality and risk group. Low risk was defined as Gleason score < 8, surgical margins+, psa doubling time > 8 months and no seminal vesicle involment. Assuming a 45% 5-year PFS of 45% in the RT arm, the trial required 369 pts per arm to detect an improvement of 12% on PFS in RT+HT arm (90% power and 5% bilateral alpha risk), possibly translating into a 10% gain in OS (75% to 85% with 80% power). Biological relapse (BR) was defined according to ASTRO-consensus. Results: At the time of data cutoff (March 2019), the median duration follow-up was 112 months. We confirm the benefit of RT+HT on PFS (HR = 0.54 [CI95% = 0.43-0.68] ; p < 0.0001) whatever the risk subgroup (HR = 0.47 [CI95% = 0.28-0.80] and 0.56 [CI95% = 0.44-0.73] for low and high risk patients, respectively. Metastatic free survival (MFS) is significantly improved in the combined arm (HR = 0.73 [CI95% = 0.54-0.98] ; p = 0.034) with 69% [CI95% = 63-74] versus 75% [CI95% = 70-80] of MFS at 10 years for RT alone and RT+HT, respectively. Conclusions: Salvage radiotherapy combined with short term HT significantly improved 10-years metastatic free survival compared with salvage radiotherapy alone. GETUG-16 considered in the context of previously published results from RTOG-9601, confirm that this strategy can be considered as the new standard for salvage treatment after radical prostatectomy. Clinical trial information: NCT00423475.

Metabolomic Approach in STEMI-Patients Undergoing Left Ventricular Remodeling

Left ventricular remodeling (LVR) occurring after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is frequent and severe. We present a metabolomic approach as an attempt to reveal unknown biomarkers associated with post-STEMI LVR. Out of 192 consecutive patients with successfully revascularized STEMI, 32 presented LVR and were clinically matched with 32 no-LVR patients. They underwent cardiac magnetic resonance at baseline, three months and 12 months. Blood samples were collected during index hospitalization. Creatine kinase (CK) peak and inflammatory markers were higher for LVR patients compared to no-LVR patients (mean 3466 ± 2211 and 2394 ± 1615 UI/L respectively, p = 0.005 for CK peak; mean 35.9 ± 44.3 vs. 21.7 ± 30.4 mg/L respectively, p = 0.020 for C-reactive protein). Leukocyte and neutrophil counts were also higher for LVR patients (mean 12028 ± 2593/mL vs. 10346 ± 3626/mL respectively, p = 0.028 and mean 9035 ± 3036/mL vs. 7596 ± 3822/mL respectively, p < 0.001). For metabolomic analysis, sphingomyelin C20:2 and symmetrical dimethylarginine were higher for LVR patients, but did not reach significance after the correction for the alpha risk. The metabolomic approach did not discriminate patients with and without LVR. However, common parameters that focus on infarction severity, such as infarct size and inflammatory markers, differed between the groups.

Risk Configuration of S&P 500 Industries: Sigma-risk and Alpha-risk Approximation

Since the pioneering studies of Mandelbrot, a great deal of interest has arisen for the parameters of fractal finance theory. With this in mind, the present study attempts to examine the risk composition of S&P 500 index industries through panel data analysis. In the modelling of industries’ stock return risk, we use internal and external variables which are related to the companies’ financial ratios and stock market movements. In the first section (sigma-risk) of the study, we model the stock return risk through standard deviation, while in the second section (alpha-risk), the alpha parameter of stable distributions has been used for the same purpose. Panel data analysis results demonstrate that in the sigma-risk model for the healthcare industry, there is a significant internal variable (roa) that negatively affects the industry risk. However, for the alpha-risk model, some significant variables are obtained for the service industry. Another important finding is the changing level of market risk under the two models. While in the sigma-risk model, the magnitude of the market (external) risk variable is high, under the alpha-risk model, we have seen that market risk is relatively low despite the fact that it still has the highest effect on industry risk. JEL Classification: C33, G10, G30, G32

The Association of Body Fat and Leisure Time Physical Activity Called into Question for Asian Indians

<p class="Pa7"><strong>Objective: </strong>Thrifty genotypes may predis­pose to type 2 diabetes and body fat (%BF) excess through a differentiated relationship between physical activity and body fat. We explored this hypothesis in Asian Indians, a population thought to be thrifty.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Methods: </strong>Three hundred and nine Guade­loupian adolescents responded to the modi­fiable activity questionnaire. Their body fat was assessed by bioimpedancemetry. We first studied the relationship between %BF and leisure time physical activity (LTPA). We then explored the associations of ethnic­ity with this relationship in a subgroup of 93 Asian Indians matched with 93 controls for age, sex, and LTPA class. The alpha risk retained was .05.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Results: </strong>The analyses showed that Asian In­dians had higher %BF even when matched with controls for age, sex and LTPA quartile, and the relationship between LTPA and %BF observed in controls was not evidenced in Asian Indians.</p><p class="Pa7"><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The higher %BF in Asian In­dians remained significant even when they were matched with controls for age, sex and LTPA quartile, and their LTPA was not associated ‒ or was at least less robustly as­sociated ‒ with %BF. These findings are con­sistent with the hypothesis of thriftiness in Asian Indians, with the weaker relationship of high LTPA and low %BF a possible path to thriftiness.</p><p class="Pa7"><em>Ethn Dis. </em>2016;26(4):485-492; doi:10.18865/ed.26.4.485</p>