Modeling the evolution of countries and ethnic groups

Two models of population growth, without and with competitive and beneficial interaction between populations, are applied to analyze the evolution of populations and subpopulations relative to the world average. Norway’s population grows less than the world average. Applying the least squares method against the 1970–2018 empirics, the model predicts that Norway’s immigrants grow exponentially, exceeding 50% of Norway’s 2053 population. Other effects may influence the growth dynamics in the near future, causing different outcomes. The logistic interactive model quantifies the beneficial impact of nonimmigrants on immigrants. South Africa’s population grows more than the world average. South Africa’s white population grows mostly convexly, and similarly to the world average during 1950–1975. After a maximum in 1995, approximately zero growth occurs toward 2018. The logistic interactive model estimates increase of the white population toward a maximum, and thereafter slight decrease toward a horizontal asymptote. The model estimates beneficial impact from the white population on South Africa’s nonwhite population, and competitive opposite impact. Zimbabwe’s population also grows more than the world average. Zimbabwe’s white population grows more than the world average during 1950–1975, and thereafter decreases abruptly and asymptotically toward zero. The implication is overall negative growth during 1950–2018. Assuming different parameter values for 1950–1974 and 1975–2018, the logistic interactive model implies better curve fitting due to allowing the two populations to impact each other competitively or beneficially.

False Generosity of the State: Parasitic Subjectivity in J. M. Coetzee’s Life and Times of Michael K

This paper holds that J. M. Coetzee’s novel, Life and Times of Michael K, demonstrates how apartheid, in order to preserve its domination over the nonwhite population of South Africa, as with other authoritarian regimes, commonly encouraged dependency. Its various institutions and camps aimed precisely to create a culture of dependence and to fashion subjects utterly dependent on the state. A dependent subject is a powerless, exploitable, and controllable subject; this is the right kind of subject for colonizers. The black majority of South Africa, then, could only have a parasitic existence, completely dependent on their white masters. The novel narrates how dependence is created through the false generosity of the state. As Paulo Freire in Pedagogy of the Oppressed argued, false charity is a state strategy that serves to reproduce the relations of domination. Coetzee’s novel, thus, suggests that to undermine the structure of domination, the oppressed have to reject the culture of dependence and the parasitic subjectivity that arise from the false generosity of the state.

Racial and socioeconomic segregation: An analysis of three Brazilian Metropolitan areas

Title in Portuguese: Segregação racial e socioeconômica: Uma análise de três áreas metropolitanas brasileirasAbstract: Brazil is characterized by racial and socioeconomic segregation. The objective of the research presented here is to analyze socioeconomic and racial segregation in three metropolitan areas (Recife, Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre). Microdata from the 2000 Brazilian Census was used for this analysis, as well as maps produced for the selected areas by groups of census tracts (áreas de ponderação), using Geographic Information Systems techniques. In general, results indicate that among those areas with a majority of whites, a high proportion of the population holds at least high school degree. Moreover, the nonwhite population lives farther away from the core of the municipality, compared to whites. Finally, whites tend to live in less elevated areas with more public infrastructure and a greater availability of major roads. An improvement to this research could be the inclusion of spatial analysis and statistical models to better understand the relationship between race and socioeconomic indicators.Resumo: O Brasil é caracterizado por segregação racial e socioeconômica. O objetivo desta pesquisa é de analisar a segregação socioeconômica e racial em três áreas metropolitanas (Recife, Belo Horizonte e Porto Alegre). Microdados do Censo Demográfico do Brasil de 2000 foram usados para esta análise, assim como mapas produzidos para os locais selecionados por áreas de ponderação, utilizando técnicas de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica. Em geral, os resultados indicam que em áreas com maioria da população branca, uma alta proporção da população possui pelo menos o ensino médio completo. Além disso, a população não-branca vive longe das áreas centrais do município, em comparação aos brancos. Finalmente, os brancos tendem a viver em áreas menos elevadas, com mais infraestrutura pública e maior disponibilidade de vias públicas principais. Um aperfeiçoamento desta pesquisa poderia ser a inclusão de análise espacial e modelos estatísticos para melhor entender a relação entre indicadores raciais e socioeconômicos.

Effect of Patient Socioeconomic Status on Access to Early-Phase Cancer Trials

Purpose Little is known about the influence of socioeconomic factors on patient access to cancer trials. Differences should be considered to ensure generalizability of trial results and equality of access. Methods Phase I trials unit referrals at our center over 5 years, from 2007 to 2012, were reviewed. Socioeconomic status was defined by the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD; 1, least deprived; 5, most deprived). Multivariate analysis was performed comparing incident cancer cases with referred patients and those ultimately enrolled onto a trial. Results Four hundred thirty patients were referred (median age, 62 years). Compared with 10,784 incident cases, referral was less likely for patients in the more-deprived quintiles compared with the least deprived (IMD 5: odds ratio [OR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.74). Once reviewed in the unit, enrollment onto a trial was not affected (IMD 5: OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.63). Ethnicity analysis showed the nonwhite population was less likely to be recruited (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.88). This relationship was lost with adjustment for age, sex, cancer type, and deprivation index. Conclusion We show for the first time to our knowledge that socioeconomic status affects early-phase cancer trial referrals. The least-deprived patients are almost twice as likely to be referred compared with the most deprived. This may be because more-deprived patients are less suitable for a trial—as a result of comorbidities, for example—or because of inequalities that could be addressed by patient or referrer education. Once reviewed at the unit, enrollment onto a trial is not affected by deprivation.

Genetic Studies of Ankylosing Spondylitis in Koreans Confirm Associations with ERAP1 and 2p15 Reported in White Patients

Objective.Investigators from the Australo-Anglo-American Spondyloarthritis Consortium have reported additional genes associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) susceptibility including IL1R2, ANTXR2, and gene deserts at 2p15 and 21q22. We evaluated these new candidate genes in a large cohort of Korean patients with AS.Methods.A group of 1164 patients with AS and 752 healthy controls were enrolled for our study. Eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were analyzed to define genetic association with AS by MassARRAY system.Results.Significant positive associations of AS with endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 1 SNP, rs27037 (p = 1.31 × 10−4), and rs27434 (p = 4.59 × 10−6), were observed. The rs10865331 of gene desert at 2p15 also showed a significant association with AS (p = 4.63 × 10−5).Conclusion.This is the first confirmation in a nonwhite population that genetic polymorphisms of rs27037, rs27434, and rs10865331 are associated with AS, implicating common pathogenetic mechanisms in Korean and white patients with AS.

Nonwhite Migration 1960–1970: The Role of Employment Opportunities

This article investigates the economic determinants of variations in nonwhite population growth rates attributable to migration in northern metropolitan areas during the 1960s. A simultaneous equations model is developed in which a nonwhite employment growth indicator is specified as a function of variables theoretically independent of concurrent nonwhite migration. Unlike prior studies of nonwhite migration, the migration equation does not employ a migrant stock indicator. The chain migration effect is linked directly to nonwhite employment growth. Variations in nonwhite net migration rates are found to be directly and significantly associated with nonwhite employment levels and nonwhite employment growth and negatively associated with income levels. Nonwhite employment growth is found positively and significantly associated with the growth of employment opportunities in low-ranked occupations, the growth of white employment in high-ranked occupations and prior nonwhite migration.

Demographic Versus Media Advertising Effects on Milk Demand: The Case of the New York City Market

An advertising-sales response model is extended to include the effects of demographic factors (age and race) as additional determinants of milk demand. Previous research indicates that the age structure of a population and its racial composition are primary factors influencing fluid milk sales. Failure to incorporate these factors in the milk demand model results in a 30 percent downward biased estimate of the advertising effect. Consequently, the economic effectiveness of milk advertising is understated when the effects of demographic variables are ignored. Changes in demographic factors (growing nonwhite population and shrinking teenage market) appear to explain the relatively flat trend in per capita milk sales in the New York City market over the period 1971–80—a period in which dairy producers spent $12 million on generic advertising of milk. Net returns to Federal Order 2 dairy farmers from generic advertising of fluid milk is estimated to average $6.07 per media dollar invested over the 1972–79 period.

Some Further Evidence on Homicide and a Regional Culture of Violence

Gastil's theory and investigation of homicide and the Southern tradition of violence are briefly examined [1]. Although his attempt to construct a quantitative index of Southerness and relate it to states' homicide rates provides a decided improvement over the usual practice of simply comparing “Southern” and “Northern” states, his analysis suffers from the use of homicide figures issued by the U.S. Public Health Service as an index of his dependent variable, criminal homicide. Inspection of these figures shows them to encompass “causes of death” ranging from premeditated murder to legal executions. To avoid this difficulty and provide a more refined analysis, alternative data for first and second degree murder and murder and nonnegligent manslaughter are examined. These data and Gastil's Southerness index along with eight socioeconomic and demographic variables are fit into a correlation analysis. Results of this analysis show a very substantial positive association between Southerness and rate for all three offenses. While on the surface these findings appear consistent with Gastil's hypothesis, when a number of socioeconomic and demographic factors are introduced into the analysis as control variables, Southerness proves to only have a slight independent effect on rate. That is, the substantial correlation between Southerness and offense rates is primarily a result of the association between Southerness and factors like educational attainment, income, percentage nonwhite population, population density, etc., all of which have been previously linked to levels of homicide. Overall, little support is found for Gastil's and other's notion of a Southern Culture of violence.

Urbanization and Differentials in White and Nonwhite Infant Mortality

This study analyzes infant deaths in the United States, 1962 to 1967, by place of residence, to determine to what degree variations in age at death are related to degree of urbanization and race. Results of the study indicate that: (1) after one day of life infant mortality increases progressively as degree of urbanization decreases; (2) the differences between urban and rural death rates are greatest in the posthebdomadal (1 week or older) period; (3) in all age groups at all levels of urbanization, the nonwhite infant is at a marked disadvantage relative to the white infant; (4) the older the infant, the greater the disadvantage for nonwhite infants in rural areas; (5) had the white infant mortality rate prevailed among the nonwhite population over the six-year period from 1962 to 1967 an estimated annual total of 11,597 nonwhite infants would have survived their first year of life; (6) 40% of the excess deaths are in infants under 7 days and 60% in the posthebdomadal period; (7) fetal death rates increase progressively as degree of urbanization decreases, complementing a direct relationship between under 1 day mortality and urbanization resulting in a level trend for perinatal mortality.