Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): origin, transmission through the environment, health effects, and mitigation strategies—a review

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

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SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19: Salient Facts and Strategies to Combat Ongoing Pandemic

Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology ◽

10.22207/jpam.14.3.04 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (3) ◽

pp. 1663-1674

Author(s):

Ranjit Sah ◽

Nayanum Pokhrel ◽

Zareena Fathah ◽

Akihiko Ozaki ◽

Divya Bhandari ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Clinical Trials ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

One Health ◽

Close Contact ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Virus Spread ◽

Intermediate Hosts ◽

Affected Person ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus – 2 (SARS-CoV-2), an emerging novel coronavirus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, has now rapidly spread to more than 215 countries and has killed nearly 0.75 million people out of more than 20 million confirmed cases as of 10th August, 2020. Apart from affecting respiratory system, the virus has shown multiple manifestations with neurological affections and damaging kidneys. SARS-CoV-2 transmission mainly occurs through close contact of COVID-19 affected person, however air-borne route is also now considered as dominant route of virus spread. The virus has been implicated to have originated from animals. Apart from bats, pangolins and others being investigates to play role in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 as intermediate hosts, the recent reports of this virus infection in other animals (cats, dogs, tigers, lions, mink) suggest one health approach implementation along with adopting appropriate mitigation strategies. Researchers are pacing to develop effective vaccines and drugs, few reached to clinical trials also, however these may take time to reach the mass population, and so till then adopting appropriate prevention and control is the best option to avoid SARS-CoV-2 infection. This article presents an overview on this pandemic virus and the disease it causes, with few recent concepts and advances.

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Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Covid19 in Egypt, 2020

10.1101/2020.04.30.20086751 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Eman D. El Desouky

Keyword(s):

Social Behavior ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Social Behaviors ◽

Compartmental Models ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Peak Time ◽

New Novel ◽

First Case ◽

The Social ◽

Novel Coronavirus

AbstractObjectivesSince December 2019 a pandemic of new novel coronavirus has started from Wuhan, China, in Egypt, the first case reported on February 14, 2020. In this study we aimed to predict the time of possible peak and simulate the changes could be happen by the social behavior of Egyptians during Ramadan (the holy month).MethodsSIR and SEIR compartmental models were used to predict the peak time. We simulated different expected scenarios based to examine their effects on the peak timing.ResultsWe found that the peak most likely to be in middle of June 2020. Simulating different transmission rate probability and R0 the earliest peak could to be in the May 20 and latest one could be in 18 July. The peak shifted much earlier to 11th April 2020 without lockdown and other mitigation strategies.ConclusionSocial behaviors of citizens during the holy month will dramatically affect the peak timing. Mitigations strategies and other lockdown measure helped to delay the expected peak.

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Psychological Distress among Adults in Home Confinement in the Midst of COVID-19 Outbreak

European Journal of Dentistry ◽

10.1055/s-0040-1718644 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (S 01) ◽

pp. S27-S33

Author(s):

Abhishek Lal ◽

Anas Sanaullah ◽

Mahnoor Khawaja M. Saleem ◽

Naseer Ahmed ◽

Afsheen Maqsood ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Psychological Distress ◽

Health Effects ◽

Adult Population ◽

Psychological Impact ◽

P Value ◽

Cross Sectional Survey ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Education Levels ◽

Patient Health ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate psychological distress caused by the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among the adult population residing in Pakistan. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional survey-based study comprised 1,000 adults residing in Pakistan. A questionnaire was formulated and circulated among adult population of Pakistan, the depression and anxiety symptoms using Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) scales were assessed. Statistical Analysis Independent t-test, cross tabulation, and regression analysis were used to identify variables having impact on PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores. A p-value of ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Among 1,000 participants, 573 were males and 427 were females who completed the survey. Majority were restricted to home for more than 40 days. Considerable number of participants reported depressive (540, 54%) and anxiety (480, 48%) symptoms. Gender, age, earnings, and occupation have significant relation with psychological distress, although similar was not found with education levels. Conclusion Psychological distress, a concerning yet addressable issue was found among adults arising amid COVID-19 outbreak. Currently, physical health effects of COVID-19 are being looked, while mental health effects being under-addressed. This issue should be addressed to avoid any psychological impact in future.

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The Novel Coronavirus and Undocumented Farmworkers in the United States

NEW SOLUTIONS A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy ◽

10.1177/1048291121989000 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 104829112198900

Author(s):

Olayemi O. Matthew ◽

Paul F. Monaghan ◽

John S. Luque

Keyword(s):

Legal Status ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Healthcare Services ◽

Safety Net ◽

The United States ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Precautionary Measures ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Working And Living Conditions

The Covid-19 pandemic has greatly impacted frontline workers’ health in 2020. The objective of this commentary is to evaluate some of the challenges faced by undocumented farmworkers in the context of the current global pandemic and possible risk mitigation strategies. Undocumented farmworkers make considerable contributions to the U.S. economy and food production, but they are at an elevated risk for contracting Covid-19. Their risk is compounded by their employment and legal status, as well as their poor working and living conditions which makes it difficult for them to observe Covid-19 precautionary measures. U.S. immigration policy disincentivizes undocumented farmworkers from seeking healthcare services. Contact tracing challenges could be overcome by gaining trust with subsequent increased testing and care. Extending eligibility of safety net programs for undocumented farmworkers will help to ease the burden of Covid-19, thereby improving their overall health and productivity.

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COVID-19 in South Korea: epidemiological and spatiotemporal patterns of the spread and the role of aggressive diagnostic tests in the early phase

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyaa119 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 49 (4) ◽

pp. 1106-1116 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Whanhee Lee ◽

Seung-Sik Hwang ◽

Insung Song ◽

Chaerin Park ◽

Honghyok Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

Diagnostic Testing ◽

Early Period ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Credible Interval ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Logistic Growth ◽

Start Date ◽

Time To Peak ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background South Korea experienced the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in the early period; thus data from this country could provide significant implications for global mitigation strategies. This study reports how COVID-19 has spread in South Korea and examines the effects of rapid widespread diagnostic testing on the spread of the disease in the early epidemic phase. Methods We collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases, tests and deaths due to COVID-19 from 20 January to 13 April 2020. We estimated the spread pattern with a logistic growth model, calculated the daily reproduction number (Rt) and examined the fatality pattern of COVID-19. Results From the start date of the epidemic in Korea (18 February 2020), the time to peak and plateau were 15.2 and 25 days, respectively. The initial Rt was 3.9 [95% credible interval (CI) 3.7 to 4.2] and declined to <1 after 2 weeks. The initial epidemic doubling time was 3.8 days (3.4 to 4.2 days). The aggressive testing in the early days of the epidemic was associated with reduction in transmission speed of COVID-19. In addition, as of 13 April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea was 2.1%, suggesting a positive effect of the targeted treatment policy for severe patients and medical resources. Conclusions Our findings provide important information for establishing and revising action plans based on testing strategies and severe patient care systems, needed to address the unprecedented pandemic.

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Assessment of risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 experimental human infection studies

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciaa1784 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Vincent P Kuiper ◽

Frits R Rosendaal ◽

Ingrid M C Kamerling ◽

Leonardus G Visser ◽

Meta Roestenberg

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Secondary Infection ◽

Severe Disease ◽

Human Infection ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

The Novel ◽

Household Contacts ◽

Risk Mitigation Strategies ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Experimental Virus

Abstract Controlled human infection (CHI) models for the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have been proposed as a tool to accelerate the development of vaccines and drugs. Such models carry inherent risks. Participants may develop severe disease or complications after deliberate infection. Prolonged isolation may negatively impact their wellbeing. Through secondary infection of study personnel or participant household contacts, the experimental virus strain may cause a community outbreak. We identified risks associated with such a SARS-CoV-2 CHI model and assessed their likelihood and impact and propose strategies that mitigate these risks. In this report, we show that risks can be minimized with proper risk mitigation strategies; the residual risk however should be weighed carefully against the scientific and social values of such a CHI model.

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Development of an interactive, agent-based local stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission and evaluation of mitigation strategies illustrated for the state of Massachusetts, USA

10.1101/2020.05.17.20104901 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alexander Kirpich ◽

Vladimir Koniukhovskii ◽

Vladimir Shvartc ◽

Pavel Skums ◽

Thomas A. Weppelmann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Data ◽

The United States ◽

The State ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Effective Vaccine ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Web Based ◽

Agent Based ◽

Isolation Techniques ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Since its discovery in the Hubei province of China, the global spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in millions of COVID-19 cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The spread throughout Asia, Europe, and the Americas has presented one of the greatest infectious disease threats in recent history and has tested the capacity of global health infrastructures. Since no effective vaccine is available, isolation techniques to prevent infection such as home quarantine and social distancing while in public have remained the cornerstone of public health interventions. While government and health officials were charged with implementing stay-at-home strategies, many of which had little guidance as to the consequences of how quickly to begin them. Moreover, as the local epidemic curves have been flattened, the same officials must wrestle with when to ease or cease such restrictions as to not impose economic turmoil. To evaluate the effects of quarantine strategies during the initial epidemic, an agent based modeling framework was created to take into account local spread based on geographic and population data with a corresponding interactive desktop and web-based application. Using the state of Massachusetts in the United States of America, we have illustrated the consequences of implementing quarantines at different time points after the initial seeding of the state with COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, we suggest that this application can be adapted to other states, small countries, or regions within a country to provide decision makers with critical information necessary to best protect human health.

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Health Implications of Drinking Water Salinity in Coastal Areas of Bangladesh

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16193746 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (19) ◽

pp. 3746 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rishika Chakraborty ◽

Khalid M. Khan ◽

Daniel T. Dibaba ◽

Md Alfazal Khan ◽

Ali Ahmed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Drinking Water ◽

Abdominal Pain ◽

Health Effects ◽

High Salinity ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Water Salinity ◽

Health Concern ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Hospital Visits

Coastal areas in South Asian countries are particularly vulnerable to elevated water salinity. Drinking water salinity has been found to be associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD), diarrhea, and abdominal pain. Our study aimed to find if excess drinking water salinity was associated with increased hospital visits with an array of health effects in coastal sub-districts of Bangladesh. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 157 participants from three coastal sub-districts. A face-to-face interview was conducted to collect salinity exposure and hospital visit data. Water samples were collected from both drinking and other household water sources for the measurement of salinity and total dissolved solids (TDS). CVD, diarrhea, and abdominal pain related hospital visits were found to be significantly associated with high water salinity and TDS. Households exposed to high salinity demonstrated a higher frequency of hospital visits than the low salinity-exposed households. People exposed to high salinity seemed to lack awareness regarding salinity-inducing health effects. Water salinity is a public health concern that will continue to rise due to climate change. Therefore, raising awareness about the health risks of water salinity is essential for the government to frame policies and mitigation strategies to control this emerging threat.

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