scholarly journals Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolai Fedorov ◽  
Aliya Kutueva ◽  
Albert Muldashev ◽  
Oksana Mikhaylenko ◽  
Vasiliy Martynenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Urals ◽  
Mountain Forest ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Southern Urals ◽  
Habitat Persistence ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe paper presents the results of predictions of the habitat persistence for rare relict of the Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED2010) and coarse fragment content in the top level of soil were used as predictors for modeling in the MaxEnt software. The impact of climate change on P. sibirica habitats under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios calculated from an ensemble of four general circulation models has been analyzed. The modeling has shown that the changes in the habitat suitability depend on the altitude. Deterioration of the habitats could be attributed to a temperature increase in mountain forest locations, and to a precipitation of driest quarter increase in mountain forest-steppe locations. In both cases, this leads to the expansion of forest and shrub vegetation. Monitoring of the habitat persistence of P. sibirica and other relict species of the Pleistocene floristic complex can play a major role in predictions, as their massive decline would constitute that climatic changes exceed the ranges of their fluctuations in the Holocene.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Jing Guo ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Guibin Wang ◽  
Tongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Test ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Leaf Traits ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the production process of potato in a changing climate in the Eastern and Western forest-steppe

2017 ◽  
pp. 120-127
Author(s):  
S.M. Svyderska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Herbaceous Plant ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Perennial Herbaceous Plant ◽  
Photosynthetic Productivity ◽  
Growing Conditions ◽  
The Impact

An important element of climate change is to assess changes in agro-climatic growing conditions of crops and the impact of these changes on their performance. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector of  Ukraine's economy to fluctuations and climate change. Given the inertial nature of agriculture and the dependence of the efficiency on the weather, now need to make timely and adequate solutions to complex problems caused by climate change. Due to the expected increase in air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere food security Ukraine will largely depend on how effectively adapting agriculture to future climate change. This includes advance assessment of the impact of the expected climate change on agro-climatic conditions for growing crops. Potatoes - perennial, herbaceous, plant, but in nature is treated as an annual plant, so that the life cycle, beginning with germination and ending with the formation of bubbles and the formation of mature tubers, is one growing season. Potato is one of the most important crops grown and diversified use in almost all parts of our country. But the main focus areas of potatoes in Polesie and Forest-steppe. We consider the relative performance of the photosynthetic productivity of potato and agro-climatic conditions for growing potatoes for the period 1986 to 2005, and expected their changes calculated by the climate change scenarios A1B and A2 for the period 2011 to 2050 in Eastern and Western Forest-Steppe. We consider the agrometeorological and agro-climatic conditions in which there may be a maximum performance of potato.

The size of under-ear interstice and productivity of spring soft wheat varieties of different ecological groups in the forest-steppe of Orenburg region

10.12737/6546 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-138
Author(s):  
Мухитов ◽  
Lenar Mukhitov ◽  
Самуилов ◽  
Feofan Samuilov
Keyword(s):  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Southern Urals ◽  
Wheat Breeding ◽  
Soft Wheat ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Ecological Groups ◽  
The Southern Urals ◽  
Wheat Varieties ◽  
Spring Soft Wheat ◽  
The Impact

The impact of contrasting conditions of water availability on the size of the upper internodes in wheat varieties was studied under the conditions of the Orenburg steppe zone. It was noted, that less drought-resistant varieties formed a short upper internodes. We conducted a mathematical analysis of the relationship of productivity and length of ear-carrying internodes of spring soft wheat varieties of different ecological groups. It was established, that we can observe a gradual increase of grain productivity with increasing the length of the upper internodes in the studied range. As a result, the following varities were selected for inclusion into the hybridization: Logachevka, Tulaykovskaya steppe, Tulaykovskaya 1, Tulaykovskaya Belozernaya, Prokhorovka and Uchitel. They have the optimal settings for the presented feature. Using the selected varieties as parental forms can enhance the efficiency of wheat breeding programs for resistance to drought in the forest-steppe zone of the Southern Urals.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Three Indicator Galliformes Species in The Northern Highlands of Pakistan

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Babar Zahoor ◽  
Xuehua Liu ◽  
Melissa Songer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Forested Landscapes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northern Highlands

Abstract Global temperatures are predicted to rise from between 1.4 to 5.8°C by 21st century, which could result in a 20 to 30% extinction of species. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) all the three species would be negatively affected by the climate change in 2050 and in 2070. (ii) Under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (iii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to lose over one quarter in 2050 and one-third by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iv) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 m to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily >3000 m in the future. The proposed implications such as establishment and upgradation of the protected areas, ban on hunting, timber mafia and temporary settlements of the local people in the forested landscapes should be under special consideration to mitigate the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Saedi ◽  
Azadeh Ahmadi ◽  
Karim C. Abbaspour
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The climate change impact on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on supplying water and water availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the Basin. The model then was calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway.

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on two flea beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species in Canada

2017 ◽  
Vol 149 (5) ◽  
pp. 616-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
R.H. Elliott ◽  
J.J. Soroka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Flea Beetle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBoth the striped flea beetle, Phyllotreta striolata (Fabricius), and crucifer flea beetle, Phyllotreta cruciferae (Goeze) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), are invasive alien species to North America. In western Canada, they are the most significant insect pests of cruciferous (Brassicaceae) crops. Climate is the one of the most dominant factors regulating the geographic distribution and population density of most insect species. Recent bioclimatic simulation models of the two flea beetle species fostered a better understanding of how the two species responded to selected climate variables. They demonstrated that selected climate variables increased population densities and geographic range of the two species. General circulation model inputs were applied in this study to assess the impact of a changing climate on the response of P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations. Model output, using the climate change scenarios, predicted that both P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations will shift north in future climates and the degree of geographic overlap between these two species will be greater than for current climate. This suggests that the two species could potentially cause economic losses over an expanded area in the future.

scholarly journals The main characteristics of slope and river runoff transformations under the conditions of degradation of natural complexes on the catchment

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 06006
Author(s):  
Aufar Gareev ◽  
Mansur Gainanshin
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Academic Staff ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Southern Urals ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Mountain Forest ◽  
Channel Processes ◽  
The Southern Urals ◽  
The Impact

The article shows that conducting hydrological calculations in the basins of very small and small rivers and their catchments is associated with significant errors, which is accounted for not only by the drastic limitations of the observational materials, but is also due to significant slope and river runoff transformations depending on the impact of natural complexes degradation (plant communities, soil cover, etc.). In the meantime, it should be noted that the emergence of a number of adverse processes, such as the propagation of erosion and channel processes, floods, environmental and economic damage inflicted on natural and economic systems, etc. is largely associated with the slope and river runoff transformations. This predetermines the necessity of investigating the processes in question. Given the above-mentioned, the article serves to reflect the results of research conducted within the mountain forest area of the Southern Urals and the Cis-Urals by the academic staff of the Department of hydrometeorology and geoecology of the Bashkir state university from 1955 to 2012. The main factors contributing to the increased maximum water discharge during the spring flood are confined to an increase in the modules of runoff coefficients as the scale of anthropogenic load on natural complexes increases, and, consequently, to a decrease in the natural water-regulating capacity of the catchments. The above-mentioned processes have resulted in the increasing maximum values of slope and river runoff and account for the adverse effects observed in the natural, economic and ecological systems.

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