Effects of Chinese strategies for controlling the diffusion and deterioration of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia in China

AbstractBackgroundIn December 2019, an outbreak of new type of coronavirus named COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. In a very short time, this virus spread rapidly over China, greatly threatening public health and economic development. The Chinese government acted quickly and implemented a series of strategies to prevent diffusion of this disease. We therefore sought to evaluate the effects of these Chinese strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19.MethodsFrom the data of cumulative confirmed cases from provincial Health Commission websites of China, we performed model fitting and calculated the growth speed of cumulative confirmed patients. We further analyzed the time when this growth speed, the rate of the number of new cases, reached its maximum (Speedmax). Comparing different times to Speedmax of different areas in China, we calculated the dates at which the growth speed began to decline in different areas. Also, The number of plateaus were analyzed.ResultsThe quartic model showed the best fit. For almost all areas in mainland China, the speed of infections reached Speedmax and began to decline within 14 days; exceptions were Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hainan, Guizhou, and Hubei. The number of plateaus was significantly correlated with the emigration index. However, the distance from other areas to Hubei and the number of plateaus had little influence on when a province or area arrived at Speedmax. Once strict intervention strategies were implemented, diffusion and deterioration of COVID-19 were inhibited quickly and effectively over China.ConclusionOur study suggests that Chinese strategies are highly effective on controlling the diffusion and deterioration of the novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. These strategies supply experience and guidelines for other countries to control the COVID-19 epidemic.

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Study on the Age of SARS-CoV-2 in Respiratory and Digestive Tract Samples: A Retrospective Study guixian-wu1,dongqin-lv*,susu-He,qian-chen,lin-ling,shaungquan-yan,xiaomai-wu,yongpo-jiang

10.21203/rs.3.rs-21793/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Guixian Wu ◽

Susu He ◽

Qian Chen ◽

Lin Ling ◽

Shuangquan Yan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Respiratory Tract ◽

Digestive Tract ◽

Lower Respiratory Tract ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Upper Respiratory Tract ◽

The Public ◽

New Type ◽

Upper Respiratory ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Acid Test

Abstract Background: An acute respiratory disease, caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV), the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has spread throughout China and received worldwide attention. After nearly 2 months efforts by the Chinese government and people from all walks of life, the epidemic in China has gradually been controlled. The awareness of the disease has gradually increased. We have detected the SARS-CoV-2 gene in the patient's sputum, throat swabs and feces, blood and even urine samples, but whether the SARS-CoV-2 RNA is detected in the upper and lower respiratory tracts and the extrapulmonary age is unknown.Methods: We collected data from 146 patients admitted to the Public Health Center of Taizhou Hospital, Zhejiang University, China from January 23, 2020 to March 11, 2020, and confirmed the diagnosis of new-type coronavirus pneumonia by RT-PCR. The final selection was made after screening. For a total of 134 confirmed patients, we collected their clinical data and sputum, nasopharyngeal swabs or throat swabs, fecal nucleic acid test results, and calculated the age of each specimen.Results: A total of 134 confirmed patients were included in the study; of them, 93 were of the common type, and 41 were critically ill. There were no significant differences between males and females, P = 0.853) and their epidemiological history (P = 0.441). The average age of severe patients was 55.85 ± 13.28 years, which was higher than that of common patients at 44.06 ± 12.86 years (P = 0.00). The results showed that the time of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the upper respiratory tract was 15.1 ± 7.23 days for common patients and 20.56 ± 6.59 days for severe patients, which was longer than that of common patients (P = 0.00). The time of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the lower respiratory tract was 27.45 ± 10.06 days for common patients and 29.78 ± 10.11 days for severe patients. There was no statistical difference (P = 0.328); SARS-CoV-2 RNA existed in the digestive tract. The time was 22.6 ± 7.69 days for common patients and 27.24 ± 7.86 days for severe patients, which was longer than that of common patients (P = 0.01). SARS-CoV-2 existed for a shorter time in the upper respiratory and digestive tracts than in the lower respiratory tract.CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 is present in the lower respiratory tract for longer than the upper respiratory　and digestive tracts, and there were no statistical differences in the lower respiratory tract between common and severe patients.

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Modelling-based evaluation of the effect of quarantine control by the Chinese government in the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak

10.1101/2020.03.03.20030445 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Xinkai Zhou ◽

Zhigui Wu ◽

Ranran Yu ◽

Shanni Cao ◽

Wen Fang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Government Intervention ◽

Model Fitting ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Model Parameters ◽

The Novel ◽

Government Control ◽

The World ◽

Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, which was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has rapidly spread all over China and across the world. By the end of February 2020, the epidemic outside Hubei province in China has been well controlled, yet the next wave of transmission in other countries may have just begun. A retrospective modeling of the transmission dynamics would provide insights into the epidemiological characteristics of the disease and evaluation of the effectiveness of the strict measures that have been taken by central and local governments of China. Using a refined susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) transmission model and a new strategy of model fitting, we were able to estimate model parameters in a dynamic manner. The resulting parameter estimation can well reflect the prevention policy scenarios. Our simulation results with different degrees of government control suggest that the strictly enforced quarantine and travel ban have significantly decreased the otherwise uncontrollable spread of the disease. Our results suggest similar measures should be considered by other countries that are of high risk of COVID-19 outbreak.SummaryBackgroundThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, which was first reported in Wuhan and rapidly spread across the world, has been well controlled in China but is only starting to take off in other countries. Here we provide a retrospective modelling analysis of the transmission dynamics in China and evaluated the effectiveness of the strict government control strategies.MethodsWe considerably refined the original susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) transmission model, and used the publicly available data from Jan 13rd to Feb 29th for model fitting and parameter estimation in a dynamic manner considering effect of prevention policies. We then used the estimated model parameters to simulate the epidemic trend and transmission risk of the disease with various degrees of government control.FindingsThe severity rate and the fatality rate remain unchanged during the whole epidemic. While government intervention had a moderate effect on the incubation rate (σ), the recovered rate (γ) endured several fold increase. Strikingly, a significant decrease in the infectious rate (β) was observed. Without government control, peak infected cases in Wuhan would reach 7.78 million (70% of the whole population) and total deaths could reach 319000 based on the current mortality rate (4.1%).InterpretationOur simulation results with different degrees of government control suggest that the strictly enforced quarantine and travel ban have significantly decreased the otherwise uncontrollable spread of the disease. Our results suggest similar measures should be considered by other countries that are of high risk of COVID-19 outbreak.FundingThe National Natural Science Foundation of China (21877060).Research in contextEvidence before the studyA global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been posing significant threats to public health worldwide. By the end of February 2020, 87645 confirmed cases are reported around the world, including 7330 severe cases and 2994 fatalities. We searched PubMed and preprint archive for papers published up to Feb 29th, 2020, using keywords “COVID-19”, “SARS-CoV-2”, “2019-nCoV”, and “novel coronavirus.” We found several researches on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19; however, only one preprint predicted the effect of government intervention in China with incomplete epidemiological data.Added value of this studySince the epidemic is already close to its end in China except Wuhan city, we have the opportunity to carry out a relatively complete retrospective analysis. We optimized the SEIR model using a dynamic fitting approach, taking into account the government measures and reached a much more precise fitting of the data comparing to other studies published. We showed that the severity rate and the fatality rate remain unchanged during the whole epidemic, suggesting the only effective way to control the disease is to control the number of infections. While government intervention had a moderate effect on the incubation rate (σ), it is essential for increasing the recovered rate (γ), and for decreasing and stabilizing the infectious rate (β). We also simulated the scenarios with various degrees of government control which could be a useful tool to predict the necessity of government intervention. An interactive online application was made available to the public on Feb 24th, 2020.Implications of all the available evidenceThe COVID-19 outbreak has already been effectively controlled in China; however, the risk of rapid global explosion is extremely high due to the high transmissive rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government are essential for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic.

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Peran Kader dalam Mendorong Pemberian Asi Di Masa Pandemi Covid-19

To Maega | Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat ◽

10.35914/tomaega.v4i1.474 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 47

Author(s):

Adenia Dwi Ristanti ◽

Elly Dwi Masita

Keyword(s):

Breast Milk ◽

Pregnant Women ◽

The Novel ◽

Post Test ◽

New Type ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Almost All ◽

Postpartum Mothers

AbstrakCoronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) atau yang kini dinamakan SARS-CoV-2 yang merupakan virus jenis baru yang belum pernah diidentifikasi sebelumnya pada manusia. COVID-19 telah dinyatakan sebagai pandemi dunia oleh WHO. Dalam kondisi pandemi COVID-19 ini, kader perlu melakukan upaya dalam penanganan, pencegahan serta pembatasan penularan infeksi salah satunya dengan mendorong ibu untuk tetap memberikan ASI di masa pandemi COVID-19. Pengetahuan kader dan ibu postpartum tentang pemberian ASI di masa pandemi COVID-19 berdasarkan pre test sebagian besar belum mengetahui, namun setelah dilakukan penyuluhan hasil post test hampir seluruh kader dan ibu postpartum sudah mengerti pemberian ASI di masa pandemi COVID-19. Diharapkan kader dan ibu hamil dapat ikut serta dalam program meningkatan pemberian ASI.Kata Kunci: COVID-19, ASI, KaderAbstractCoronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) or what is now called SARS-CoV-2 which is a new type of virus that has never been previously identified in humans. COVID-19 has been declared a world pandemic by WHO. In the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, cadres need to make efforts in handling, preventing and limiting the transmission of infection, one of which is by encouraging mothers to continue to provide breast milk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the cadres and postpartum mothers knew about breastfeeding during the COVID-19 pandemic based on pre-test, but after counseling on the results of the post-test, almost all cadres and postpartum mothers understood breastfeeding during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is hoped that cadres and pregnant women can participate in programs to increase breastfeedingKey Word: COVID-19, Breasfeeding, Kader

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Genetic Variation and Evolution of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus

Public Health Genomics ◽

10.1159/000513530 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Salvatore Dimonte ◽

Muhammed Babakir-Mina ◽

Taib Hama-Soor ◽

Salar Ali

Keyword(s):

Amino Acid ◽

Receptor Binding ◽

Rapid Evolution ◽

Single Amino Acid ◽

Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 ◽

New Type ◽

Amino Acid Mutations ◽

Host Infection ◽

Human Coronaviruses ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 is a new type of coronavirus causing a pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-2). Coronaviruses are very diverting genetically and mutate so often periodically. The natural selection of viral mutations may cause host infection selectivity and infectivity. Methods: This study was aimed to indicate the diversity between human and animal coronaviruses through finding the rate of mutation in each of the spike, nucleocapsid, envelope, and membrane proteins. Results: The mutation rate is abundant in all 4 structural proteins. The most number of statistically significant amino acid mutations were found in spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) which may be because it is responsible for a corresponding receptor binding in a broad range of hosts and host selectivity to infect. Among 17 previously known amino acids which are important for binding of spike to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, all of them are conservative among human coronaviruses, but only 3 of them significantly are mutated in animal coronaviruses. A single amino acid aspartate-454, that causes dissociation of the RBD of the spike and ACE2, and F486 which gives the strength of binding with ACE2 remain intact in all coronaviruses. Discussion/Conclusion: Observations of this study provided evidence of the genetic diversity and rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as well as other human and animal coronaviruses.

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POS1232 COVID-19 IN PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS: ONE RHEUMATOLOGY CENTER EXPERIENCE

Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases ◽

10.1136/annrheumdis-2021-eular.3086 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽

pp. 899.2-899

Author(s):

M. Starovoytova ◽

O. Desinova ◽

L. P. Ananyeva ◽

O. Koneva ◽

L. Garzanova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systemic Sclerosis ◽

Severe Disease ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽

Frequent Use ◽

Diffuse Form ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Almost All ◽

Dose Prednisone ◽

Frequent Presence

Background:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus infection or COVID-19 is a serious problem for patients with systemic autoimmune diseases Given the serious complications, including acute lung injury, patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), especially SSs associated with interstitial lung disease (ILD), may represent a high risk group for infection and the development of severe COVID-19.Objectives:We present an analysis of the COVID-19 course and outcomes in 110 SSc pts.Methods:The study included 147 patients with SSc. The information was clarified by means of telephone survey after 10 months of the pandemic (December 2020). Covid-19 was diagnosed when confirmed by positive oral /nasopharyngeal swab, in the presence of positive antibodies and/or characteristic symptoms, and data from chest computed tomography (CT). 110 pts (77%) out of 147 patients in the SSc registry, gave the necessary information. COVID-19 was diagnosed in 59 pts (53 %). 42 pts (71%) had SSc-ILD. Pts mean age was 54.96 (s.d.11, min 31, max 79), 83% women (49 women and 10 men). 38 pts (65%) had a limited form of SSc, 15 (26%) pts had diffuse form SSc, 6% had overlap (SSc-polymyositis (PM) and SSc had rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and 3% had visceral form of SSc). All patients received low-dose prednisone, and more than half of the pts received immunosuppressive therapy. Rituximab therapy was performed in 24 pts (41%).Results:Almost all patients had positive swab from the oral cavity/nasopharynx. And only in 4 (7%) pts nasopharyngeal swabs were negative, in these patients specific antibodies and characteristic CT changes were detected. Chest CT was performed in 51 (86%) pts. Novel coronavirus pneumonia developed in the vast majority of pts - in 46 (78 %) pts. CT1 (up to 25% of lung lesions) had 10 (17%) pts, CT2 (25-50%) – 21(36%) pts, CT 3 (50-75%) – 15(25%) pts. In 5 (8.5%) pts no changes were detected on CT. The course of COVID-19 was mild and moderate (20 (34%) pts and 18 (31%) pts respectively), severe course was observed in 21 (35%) pts, including fatal in 12 (20%) pts. Among the deceased pts, only 1 patient with SSc-PM had not had ILD, but 7 patients had been treated with rituximab.Conclusion:SSc SARS-CoV-2-infected patients may be at risk of severe disease and mortality due to the frequent presence of ILD and the frequent use of immunosuppressive, including biological, therapy.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

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Building the New Socialist Countryside: Tracking Public Policy and Public Opinion Changes in China

The China Quarterly ◽

10.1017/s0305741016000369 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 226 ◽

pp. 456-476 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Matthias Stepan ◽

Enze Han ◽

Tim Reeskens

Keyword(s):

Public Policy ◽

Public Opinion ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Mainland China ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Significant Shift ◽

Political Consequences ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Rural And Urban ◽

The Social

AbstractEver since the introduction of the national political programme of “Building a new socialist countryside” (BNSC) in the early 2000s, renewed focus has been cast on how the Chinese government manages the gap between its rural and urban areas in the new millennium. Previous research has mostly studied the social and political consequences of the BNSC initiative without paying particular attention to its effects on public opinion. In this article, we present an analysis of the 2002 and 2008 waves of the mainland China subset of the Asian Barometer. Our results show a significant shift in the perceptions of the rural population in respect to how much impact government policies have on daily life. This shift brings rural perceptions more in line with those of the urban population in 2002. The paper concludes with the implications of our findings for the study of the relations between public opinion and public policy in China.

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HORMONE STUDIES WITH THE ULTRACENTRIFUGE

Journal of Experimental Medicine ◽

10.1084/jem.68.1.1 ◽

1938 ◽

Vol 68 (1) ◽

pp. 1-16 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

James A. Chiles ◽

Aura E. Severinghaus

Keyword(s):

Compressed Air ◽

Maximum Speed ◽

Driving Mechanism ◽

Air Bearing ◽

Centrifugal Field ◽

Air Turbine ◽

Full Speed ◽

Short Time ◽

Centrifuge Rotor

1. An ultracentrifuge is described in which the rotor is driven by a compressed air turbine, and is spun in an evacuated chamber to minimize friction and heating. The rotating parts are supported by a cushion of air in an air bearing. 2. The centrifuge rotor holds 10 test tubes inclined at 45° to the axis, and has a capacity of 55 cc. It is operated at a maximum speed of 51,000 R.P.M., which develops at the top of the fluid column in the test tubes a centrifugal field of over 100,000 times gravity, and at the bottom of the fluid column a field of over 200,000 times gravity. 3. By means of a reverse turbine, the rotor can be brought to a stop from full speed in a relatively short time. 4. A precession damping device is described, which effectively damps the precession and wobbling of the rotor that usually occurs at certain speeds in machines of this type. 5. A relatively long section of shaft is used between the centrifuge rotor and lower bearings. This prevents vibrations from being appreciably transmitted through the shaft to the lower bearings and driving mechanism, and results in a negligible wear on the bearings. 6. The driving mechanism is designed so that the positions of its parts are adjustable, and so that the driving mechanism may be dismantled without disturbing these adjustments.

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Biathlon Performance: Heart Rate, Hit Rate, Speed and Physiological Variables

10.53350/pjmhs2115103245 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (10) ◽

pp. 3245-3249

Author(s):

Gökhan Atasever ◽

Fatih Kiyici ◽

Deniz Bedir ◽

Fatih Ağduman

Keyword(s):

Heart Rate ◽

Lean Body Mass ◽

Body Mass ◽

Body Fat ◽

Maximum Speed ◽

Fat Percentage ◽

Physiological Variables ◽

Cross Country Skiing ◽

Cross Country ◽

Short Time

Aim: Biathlon is a sport that combines cross-country skiing and rifle shooting. The athlete is fast in the cross-country skiing section, in the gun shooting section, the heart rate should be low. This study aims to determine the hitting rate of the shots made with different training loads on low altitude in elite biathletes in terms of maximum speed and physiological variables. Methods: To evaluate shooting performances first with the resting pulse and then after 2.5 km skiing respectively with 50%, 70% and 100% pulse rate which is separately calculated for each athlete according to karvonen formula. Results: Our findings show that while there was negative relation between maximum speed and body fat there was a positive relation with lean body mass. It has been determined that low body fat percentage and high lean body mass are effective at the athletes’ maximum speed and the pulse level with the highest target shooting accuracy rate was at rest and 70% in the second level. Conclusion: Since the pulse of the athlete who comes to the shooting area cannot be reduced to a resting level in a short time, focusing the 70% pulse zone may be beneficial in terms of shooting accuracy and acceleration after the shot. The lowest results in target shooting accuracy were seen at 50% and 100% loads. Keywords: Athletes, performance, heart, rate, lean body mass.

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ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL MARINE CURRENT ENERGY IN THE STRAITS OF THE LESSER SUNDA ISLANDS

BULLETIN OF THE MARINE GEOLOGY ◽

10.32693/bomg.36.1.2021.703 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 36 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ai Yuningsih Yuningsih

Keyword(s):

Cross Sections ◽

Tidal Flow ◽

Ocean Current ◽

Maximum Speed ◽

Geological Processes ◽

The Pacific ◽

Marine Current ◽

Current Characteristics ◽

Stationary Location ◽

Almost All

The Lesser Sunda Islands extend from Bali to Timor and consist of two geologically distinct parts formed by a subduction system of oceanic crust along the Java-Timor Trench. The northern part which includes Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa, Flores, Wetar, Pantar and Alor, is volcanic in origin; whilst the southern part is non-volcanic, encompassing the islands of Sumba, Timor and Rote. The straits along the Lesser Sunda Islands are formed as a result of very complex geological processes and tectonics in this area. These straits are the most important cross-sections in the southern part of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), functioning as outlets for the mass flows of seawater from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean through the Flores and the Savu Seas. In these straits, relatively high current speeds are occurred, not only caused by the ITF but also due to its geometry, the influence of tidal flow, and monsoonal currents.Site study and ocean current measurement were conducted by using an echosounder, a pair of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), and other supporting equipment. In general, the average of most ocean current speeds is less than 1.5 m/s with a duration flow of 8 -12 hours a day, and the maximum speed reaches up to 3 m/s. The tidal types in almost all the straits are mixed semidiurnal tides, in which two high waters and two low waters occur twice a day, with the high and low tides differ in height.The Lesser Sunda Straits were selected as the potential sites for ocean current power plant because their current speeds are relatively high and their characteristics are more predictable compared with other straits from other regions. Based on the results of bathymetry survey and current characteristics from the deployed ADCP at a fixed (stationary) location on the seabed, the best location for the current power turbines is at the depth of 15-30 m where the seabed gently sloping.

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NEW INSPIRATION FROM CHINA'S PHILOSOPHY OF "UNITY OF MAN AND HEAVEN": CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Contemporary Eurasia ◽

10.52837/25792970-2021-10.1-21 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 21-34

Author(s):

PU JINGXIN

Keyword(s):

International Relations ◽

Human Society ◽

The Novel ◽

The World ◽

The Face ◽

New Type ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Ancient Chinese ◽

Self Protection ◽

Harmonious Community

Abstract: The danger of the novel coronavirus has not yet come to an end, and new variants have begun to attack the world. What philosophy should humankind’s strategy be based on when human society as a group is fighting against Covid-19, as the pandemic ravages the world? Unfortunately, political leaders of various countries have failed to achieve the overall awareness of attacking the pandemic for a shared future for mankind so far. In the face of the pandemic, mankind as a whole urgently needs to break through the narrow nation-oriented ideology of seeking only self-protection. The International Community should establish a new type of international cooperation featuring the concept of harmony of "all things under heaven as a unity". The international relations system dominated by the power ofwestern discourse is now in a bottleneck. The main aim of this article is to study the ancient Chinese wisdom of "the Unity of Man and Heaven" philosophy and build a global harmonious community. The author argues that the “export” of the aforementioned wisdom must be a priority for Chinese scholars. Keywords: Tao; Unity of Man and Heaven; Novel Coronavirus; Anthropocentrism; Harmony.

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