scholarly journals Regional opportunities for Siberian tundra conservation in the next 1000 years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Kruse ◽  
Ulrike Herzschuh
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Treeline Ecotone ◽  
The North ◽  
Nonlinear Responses ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Time

The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (RCP 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.

Large-scale siliciclastic input during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum in the North Sea Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simin Jin ◽  
David Kemp ◽  
David Jolley ◽  
Manuel Vieira ◽  
Chunju Huang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Isotope ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
The North ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
The North Sea

<p>The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) was the most marked climate warming event of the Cenozoic, and a potentially useful deep time analogue for understanding environmental responses to anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated warming. The response of sedimentary systems to the large-scale climate changes of the PETM are, however, still uncertain. Here, we present an extremely thick (~140 m) record of the PETM in cores from a well in the North Sea, offshore UK. In this well, a thick Paleocene-Eocene interval is developed owing to uplift of the East Shetland Platform in the late Paleocene. Carbon isotope data through this well, coupled with detailed sedimentological analysis, show that the PETM interval is contemporaneous with >200 sandstone turbidites layers. Mud deposition without turbidites dominated sedimentation below and above the PETM. These observations support previous work from other localities highlighting how climate warming during the PETM likely drove substantial changes in hydrological cycling, erosion and sediment supply. Spectral analysis of turbidite recurrence in the PETM interval suggests that the abundance of turbidites was modulated in part by ~21 kyr astronomical precession climate cycles, further emphasizing a potential climatic control on turbidite sedimentation. In detail, we note a kiloyear-scale time lag between onset of the PETM carbon isotope excursion and the appearance of turbidites in the succession, highlighting a delay between PETM carbon release and warming and the basin-wide response in sediment supply.</p>

scholarly journals Happy New Year! Do New Year’s Eve Festivities Influence the Workload of the Emergency Department of an Urban Hospital?

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (s1) ◽  
pp. s133-s134
Author(s):  
Annelies Scholliers ◽  
Stefan Gogaert ◽  
Dimitri De Fré ◽  
Inge D’haese ◽  
Carine Vandycke
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Urban Hospital ◽  
Young Males ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies ◽  
New Year’S Eve ◽  
The Impact

Introduction:Bruges is the largest city in the province of West-Flanders in Belgium. Because of its ample canals, it is sometimes referred to as “Venice of the North.” As such, it is a major tourist destination, and during New Year’s Eve, there are many festivities. The AZ Sint-Jan is the largest hospital providing medical care to the area.Aim:To examine the impact of the New Year’s Eve festivities on the workload of the emergency department of AZ Sint-Jan.Methods:Data was analyzed for every patient presenting to the emergency department from the 31st of December starting from 06:00 PM until the 1st of January 08:00 AM from 2009 until 2018. The time of entry, type of injury, gender, age, and whether the patient was intoxicated were evaluated. Ten other dates in this time period were obtained for comparison via a random date generator. Data were analyzed using Jasp©.Results:There were 826 patients included for analysis. On average, 41 patients presented themselves to the emergency department on New Year’s Eve between 06:00 PM and 08:00 AM. On a random day, there were only 31 patients. Most of the patients on New Year’s Eve arrived between 00:00 AM and 08:00 AM. 57% of all patients were male. 22% of all patients were intoxicated with alcohol. From 00:00 AM until 08:00 AM, one in three patients were intoxicated. The average age on admission was 36 years.Discussion:During New Year’s Eve there is a consistently higher workload in the emergency department. There is an influx of young males who are intoxicated. These patients tend to stay a long time to “sleep it off” and put considerable stress on the available resources. More attention should be given to risk mitigation strategies tailored to this group to prevent excessive drinking.

Long-term Cyclic Variations of Prominences, Green and Red Coronae over Solar Cycles

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Emission Lines ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Green Line ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The South ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
Cyclic Variations

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.

The Problem of Identifying and Modeling the Relationship between Monetary Factor and Inflation in the Russian Economy

2008 ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
A. Porshakov ◽  
A. Ponomarenko
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Complex Approach ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Supply Side Factors

The role of monetary factor in generating inflationary processes in Russia has stimulated various debates in social and scientific circles for a relatively long time. The authors show that identification of the specificity of relationship between money and inflation requires a complex approach based on statistical modeling and involving a wide range of indicators relevant for the price changes in the economy. As a result a model of inflation for Russia implying the decomposition of inflation dynamics into demand-side and supply-side factors is suggested. The main conclusion drawn is that during the recent years the volume of inflationary pressures in the Russian economy has been determined by the deviation of money supply from money demand, rather than by money supply alone. At the same time, monetary factor has a long-run spread over time impact on inflation.

SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PEMILIHAN KEPALA CABANG TERBAIK BANK SUMUT DENGAN MENERAPKAN METODE VIKOR

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Betrik J Hutapea ◽  
Mesran Mesran ◽  
Siti Nurhabibah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Vikor Method ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Time ◽  
North Sumatra ◽  
Regional Development Bank ◽  
Selection Of

SUMUT Bank is one of the Banks in Indonesia with the name of the company PT. Regional Development Bank of North Sumatra. The North Sumatra Bank has branches in each region in North Sumatra both in the district and in the sub-district, and each of these branches is led by a branch leader or branch head. The head of this branch is responsible for the reversal of the Bank being led. The best and most accomplished branch heads deserve more and more awards. The selection of the best branch heads is selected transparently and structured in the hope that it can be a motivation for all branch heads to be able to further improve the quality and service of the Bank they lead. Making the best branch head selection done manually will take a long time and tends to be less transparent and structured. One solution so that the implementation of the selection can be carried out easily and quickly, it requires a Decision Support System that can provide consistency of assessment. In this study the method used is the VIKOR method (Visekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje). This method makes cracking on alternatives based on criteria that have been determined with an ideal compromise solution or the best solution, so that this system can later be beneficial for the SUMUT Bank to get the title in determining the best branch head.Keywords: Decision Support System, North Sumatra Bank, Branch Head, Vikor

Hopf bifurcation for a discontinuous HTLV-1 model

Filomat ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 6247-6267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Shamsara ◽  
Zahra Afsharnezhad ◽  
Reihaneh Mostolizadeh
Keyword(s):  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Sliding Mode ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Discontinuous System ◽  
Steady State Condition ◽  
Ctl Response ◽  
Optimal Drug ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Immunosuppressive Diseases

Developing accurate mathematical models for host immune response in immunosuppressive diseases such as HIV and HTLV-1 are essential to achieve an optimal drug therapy regime. Since for HTLV-1 specific CTL response typically occurs after a time lag, we consider a discontinuous response function to better describe this lagged response during the early stage of the infectious, thus the system of HTLV-1 model will be a discontinuous system. For analyzing the dynamic of the system we use Filippov theory and find conditions in which the Filippov system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation. The Hopf bifurcation help us to find stable and unstable periodic oscillations and can be used to predict whether the CTL response can return to a steady state condition. Also, Hopf bifurcation in sliding mode is investigated. In this case the solutions will remain in the hyper-surface of discontinuity and as a consequence the disease cannot progress, at least for a long time. Finally we use numerical simulations to demonstrate the results by example.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Oceans ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 429-447
Author(s):  
Christian Dominguez ◽  
James M. Done ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

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