EXPRESS: The Importance of Price Beliefs in Consumer Search

2020 ◽  
pp. 002224372098297
Author(s):  
Pranav Jindal ◽  
Anocha Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Search Cost ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Online Study ◽  
New Information ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Price Discriminate ◽  
Homogeneous Good

A consumer’s decision to engage in search depends on the beliefs the consumer has about an unknown product characteristic such as price. Given beliefs are rarely observed, researchers typically assume that consumers have rational expectations or update beliefs consistent with Bayesian updating. These assumptions are not only restrictive, but additionally, do not afford the researcher, or the retailer, an opportunity to price discriminate among consumers based on heterogeneity in beliefs. We first show, through Monte Carlo experiments, how these assumptions impact estimates of search cost. Next, we design an incentive-aligned online study where subjects search over the price of a homogeneous good, and we elicit distributions of price beliefs before and after each search. Based on data collected from a nationally representative panel, we find substantial heterogeneity in prior price beliefs. We find that subjects update their beliefs in response to search outcomes, but they deviate from Bayesian updating in that they under-react to new information. Importantly, we show that (i) assuming Bayesian updating does not significantly bias search cost estimates at the aggregate level provided the researcher accounts for heterogeneous prior beliefs, (ii) eliciting heterogeneity in prior expected prices is much more important than eliciting heterogeneity in prior price uncertainty, and (iii) a retailer can increase profits through third-degree price discrimination by recognizing the heterogeneity in prior beliefs.

scholarly journals Physical Comorbidities and Depression in Recent and Long-Term Adult Cancer Survivors: NHANES 2007–2018

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 3368
Author(s):  
Dafina Petrova ◽  
Andrés Catena ◽  
Miguel Rodríguez-Barranco ◽  
Daniel Redondo-Sánchez ◽  
Eloísa Bayo-Lozano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Survivors ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Depression Symptoms ◽  
Depression Risk ◽  
Adult Cancer Survivors ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Risk Of Cancer

Many adult cancer patients present one or more physical comorbidities. Besides interfering with treatment and prognosis, physical comorbidities could also increase the already heightened psychological risk of cancer patients. To test this possibility, we investigated the relationship between physical comorbidities with depression symptoms in a sample of 2073 adult cancer survivors drawn from the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2007–2018) in the U.S. Based on information regarding 16 chronic conditions, the number of comorbidities diagnosed before and after the cancer diagnosis was calculated. The number of comorbidities present at the moment of cancer diagnosis was significantly related to depression risk in recent but not in long-term survivors. Recent survivors who suffered multimorbidity had 3.48 (95% CI 1.26–9.55) times the odds of reporting significant depressive symptoms up to 5 years after the cancer diagnosis. The effect of comorbidities was strongest among survivors of breast cancer. The comorbidities with strongest influence on depression risk were stroke, kidney disease, hypertension, obesity, asthma, and arthritis. Information about comorbidities is usually readily available and could be useful in streamlining depression screening or targeting prevention efforts in cancer patients and survivors. A multidimensional model of the interaction between cancer and other physical comorbidities on mental health is proposed.

The ideological divide in public perceptions of self-driving cars

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 436-451
Author(s):  
Yilang Peng
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United States ◽  
Scientific Literacy ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
New Information ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Self Driving Cars ◽  
Social Conservatism

Applications in artificial intelligence such as self-driving cars may profoundly transform our society, yet emerging technologies are frequently faced with suspicion or even hostility. Meanwhile, public opinions about scientific issues are increasingly polarized along the ideological line. By analyzing a nationally representative panel in the United States, we reveal an emerging ideological divide in public reactions to self-driving cars. Compared with liberals and Democrats, conservatives and Republicans express more concern about autonomous vehicles and more support for restrictively regulating autonomous vehicles. This ideological gap is largely driven by social conservatism. Moreover, both familiarity with driverless vehicles and scientific literacy reduce respondents’ concerns over driverless vehicles and support for regulation policies. Still, the effects of familiarity and scientific literacy are weaker among social conservatives, indicating that people may assimilate new information in a biased manner that promotes their worldviews.

scholarly journals The Role of Virtual Experiences in Increasing Knowledge, Motivation, Independence and Cultural Capital from Disadvantaged Pupils in England

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-142
Author(s):  
Olivia Gillard
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Capital ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Learning Experiences ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Virtual Learning ◽  
Cultural Knowledge ◽  
New Information ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Virtual Experiences ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective: To investigate the impact of virtual learning experiences (VLEs) in school amongst disadvantaged 9 to 11-year-olds: specifically, do virtual experiences increase their knowledge, motivation and independence in learning about a topic, and does this increase their cultural capital. Methodology: Participants explored virtual experiences on countries around the world, with the number of facts learnt before and after recorded. Questionnaires were also completed to record views of virtual experiences. Findings: Findings suggest virtual experiences were successful in teaching participants new information, and increased their independence and motivation to engage with learning, and thus could be successful in increasing cultural capital. Significance difference testing revealed that disadvantaged pupils recorded fewer facts than non-disadvantaged pupils, and therefore virtual experiences were not sufficient to close this disadvantage gap. Value Added: The value of virtual experiences being woven into curriculums is discussed as a platform for teaching cultural knowledge. Recommendations: Virtual learning experiences should be considered a core resource for teachers when planning and should be embedded into the curriculum to enhance learning experiences for disadvantaged pupils. Further research should continue to explore the use of VLEs in Primary schools, and the impact of VLEs on cultural capital.

How the positivity of new information influences belief updating in depression - The more, the better?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Kube ◽  
Lukas Kirchner ◽  
Gunnar Lemmer ◽  
Julia Glombiewski
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Traditional Learning ◽  
False Feedback ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Belief Updating ◽  
Positive Information ◽  
New Information ◽  
New Learning ◽  
Interaction Task ◽  
Disconfirming Information

Aberrant belief updating has been linked to psychopathology, e.g., depressive symptoms. While previous research used to treat belief-confirming vs. -disconfirming information as binary concepts, the present research varied the extent to which new information deviates from prior beliefs and examined its influence on belief updating. In a false feedback task (Study 1; N = 379) and a social interaction task (Study 2; N = 292), participants received slightly positive, moderately positive or extremely positive information in relation to their prior beliefs. In both studies, new information was deemed most reliable if it was moderately positive. Yet, differences in the positivity of new information had only small effects on belief updating. In Study 1, depressive symptoms were related to difficulties in generalizing positive new learning experiences. The findings suggest that, contrary to traditional learning models, the larger the differences between prior beliefs and new information, the more beliefs are not updated.

Crisis, State Legitimacy, and Political Participation in a Non-Democracy: How Qatar Withstood the 2017 Blockade

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-416
Author(s):  
Justin Gengler ◽  
Buthaina Al-Khelaifi
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
State Legitimacy ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face ◽  
Nationally Representative

This article uses rare, nationally representative survey data collected before and after the blockade of Qatar that began in June 2017 to assess its impact on citizens' orientations toward the Gulf Cooperation Council, relations with key foreign countries, and domestic politics. The study illuminates a critical element missing from existing explanations of Qatar's unforeseen resilience in the face of the blockade, namely the role of ordinary Qataris, who mobilized in defense of the political status quo.

scholarly journals Alcoholic beverage preferences among teenagers in Finland before and after the 2018 alcohol law change

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-152
Author(s):  
Tomi Lintonen ◽  
Suvi Ahtinen ◽  
Anne Konu
Keyword(s):  
Alcoholic Beverage ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Grocery Stores ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Population Total ◽  
Beverage Type ◽  
Effective Age ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
In The Beginning

Aims: The alcohol law change in Finland in the beginning of 2018 was forecast to shift alcohol sales from alcohol monopoly stores to grocery stores. The trend of declining adolescent alcohol use was predicted to end. This study aimed to provide a more detailed view on under-age drinking change through analysing alcoholic beverage use preferences among 14 and 16 year olds in Finland from 2017 to 2019. Methods: Nationally representative surveys of adolescent health behaviours in Finland from 2017 ( n = 2451) and 2019 ( n = 2119) among 14 and 16 year olds were analysed using cross-tabulations and logistic regression modelling. Beverage data were coded from an open-ended question concerning the latest drinking occasion. Results: The proportion of 14 and 16-year-old girls reporting drinking alcohol was 41% in 2017 and 45% in 2019. The corresponding proportions among boys were 39% in 2017 and 43% in 2019. The share of alcohol consumed in the form of beer, alcopops and cider increased among girls from 55% to 75%, but the apparent increase among boys from 69% to 76% was not statistically significant. The only beverage type category that increased in popularity from the year 2017 to 2019 was alcopops. Conclusions: The law change bringing strong alcopops, beer and cider into grocery stores increased their consumption – especially among the under-aged. Comprehensive measures including taxation, restrictions on advertising and sales affecting the population total consumption are also likely to remain the keys to reducing alcohol consumption among adolescents. In addition, effective age-limit control and sanctions against neglecting age-restriction enforcement are needed.

Implementing ERP Education in a Changing Environment and Different Degree Programs

2011 ◽  
pp. 27-40
Author(s):  
Stefen Koch
Keyword(s):  
Education Program ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Degree Programs ◽  
Master Program ◽  
New Information ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Study Programs ◽  
The University ◽  
Satisfaction Measures

In this chapter, the ERP education program at the Department of Information Business of the Vienna University of Economics and BA is described. Especially emphasized is the embedding into the study programs both at the department and university-level. Due to a major change in the degree programs offered by the university, including the introduction of a completely new information systems bachelor and master program, changes to the ERP education program became necessary and are described. We also report several quantitative data on the lectures both before and after the changes, including satisfaction measures. From this, we try to condense some lessons for other institutions who are planning to introduce ERP into their curricula.

scholarly journals Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (9) ◽  
pp. 2748-2782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Bordalo ◽  
Nicola Gennaioli ◽  
Yueran Ma ◽  
Andrei Shleifer
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Full Information ◽  
Distortion Parameter ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Consensus Forecasts ◽  
Important Variation

We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimation indicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnostic overreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across different series, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E13, E17, E27, E47)

scholarly journals The stigma of claiming benefits: a quantitative study

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
BEN BAUMBERG
Keyword(s):  
Political Rhetoric ◽  
Symbolic Violence ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Perceived Stigma ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Personal Stigma ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Uk

AbstractStigma has long been viewed by some as essential to discourage excessive claims, yet seen by others as a cause of non-take-up by people in need and as a form of symbolic violence. More recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in the links between shame and poverty (including the role of benefits), and particular concerns about media/political rhetoric in the UK. Yet while our knowledge of benefits stigma has been enhanced by theoretical/qualitative contributions, few quantitative studies examine its extent or patterning. This paper therefore reports the results of a 2012 nationally-representative survey in the UK. It finds sub-types of stigma are reported by 10–19 per cent for each benefit, but 34 per cent report either personal stigma (their own view) or stigmatisation (perceived stigma by others) for at least one benefit, and over one-quarter say a stigma-related reason would make them less likely to claim. One-third of claimants themselves report some degree of stigma around their claim. Against the predictions of ‘dependency culture’ claims, however, respondents in high-claim areas were more likely to stigmatise benefits, both before and after accounting for other factors. The paper concludes by considering lessons for future benefits stigma studies, and policy options to reduce benefits stigma.

scholarly journals Smoking trends in Mexico, 2002–2016: before and after the ratification of the WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2019-055153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Zavala-Arciniega ◽  
Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu ◽  
David T Levy ◽  
Yan Kwan Lau ◽  
Rafael Meza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Latin American Country ◽  
Daily Smoking ◽  
Current Smoking ◽  
Pictorial Warnings ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Smoking Trends ◽  
Pooled Sample

IntroductionMexico was the first Latin American country to ratify the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004, after which it implemented some key FCTC policies (e.g., taxes, smoke-free, pictorial warnings and ad bans). This study assessed trends in the prevalence of current, daily and non-daily smoking in Mexico before and after the implementation of key FCTC policies.MethodsData were analysed from two comparable, nationally representative surveys (i.e., the National Survey on Addictions 2002, 2011 and 2016, and the Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2009 and 2015). The pooled sample comprised 100 302 persons aged 15–65 years. Changes in the prevalence of current, daily and non-daily smoking were assessed.ResultsFrom 2002 to 2016, the prevalence of current smoking fell 11% in relative terms (from 21.5% to 19.0%). The decrease was registered between 2002 and 2009, and after that, a slight increase was observed (from 16.5% in 2009 to 19% in 2016). The prevalence of daily smoking decreased by about 50% between 2002 and 2016 (from 13.5% to 7.0%) with most of the decrease occurring by 2009. Conversely, the prevalence of non-daily smoking increased by 35% between 2009 and 2016 (from 8.8% to 11.9%).ConclusionsFull implementation of the FCTC is necessary to further reduce smoking. Specific interventions may be needed to target non-daily smokers, who now comprise more than half of current smokers in Mexico.

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