scholarly journals Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1531-1539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Alves de Guimaraens ◽  
Cláudia Torres Codeço
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Hepatitis A ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sanitation Services ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Different Levels

Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship.

Possible Increase of Human Taenia saginata Infections through Import of Beef to Norway from a High Prevalence Area

1999 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 1314-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
EYSTEIN SKJERVE
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Heat Treatment ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Taenia Saginata ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Epidemiological Pattern ◽  
Human Infections

A Monte Carlo risk assessment model was developed to estimate the public health risk of importing prime cuts of beef infested with Taenia saginata to Norway from an endemic area in southern Africa. The model predicted that 21 (lower 5% = 1, upper 95% = 56) viable cysts would be present in domestic prime cuts during 1996 and 1997, with 8 (0 to 21) of them being ingested without sufficient heat treatment to kill the parasite. These cysts were expected to cause 2 (0 to 7) human infections. Corresponding figures for the imported prime cuts were 1,260 (99 to 2,900) viable cysts, 462 (37 to 1,065) ingested without sufficient heat treatment, causing 132 (8 to 361) human infections. The model was sensitive to the uncertainties related to the estimates of probabilities of cysts being viable and the probability of their causing infection in humans. The public health impact from consuming imported beef is not large, but the model illustrates how imported cuts may change the epidemiological pattern of a disease even when the import constitutes only 3% of the prime cuts consumed.

scholarly journals Newly Discovered Archival Data Show Coincidence of a Peak of Sexually Transmitted Diseases with the Early Epicenter of Pandemic HIV-1

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1701
Author(s):  
João Dinis Sousa ◽  
Philip J. Havik ◽  
Viktor Müller ◽  
Anne-Mieke Vandamme
Keyword(s):  
Medical Records ◽  
Hiv Transmission ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Belgian Congo ◽  
Hiv 1

To which extent STDs facilitated HIV-1 adaptation to humans, sparking the pandemic, is still unknown. We searched colonial medical records from 1906–1958 for Leopoldville, Belgian Congo, which was the initial epicenter of pandemic HIV-1, compiling counts of treated STD cases in both Africans and Europeans. Almost all Europeans were being treated, while for Africans, generalized treatment started only in 1929. Treated STD counts in Europeans thus reflect STD infection rates more accurately compared to counts in Africans. In Africans, the highest recorded STD treatment incidence was in 1929–1935, declining to low levels in the 1950s. In Europeans, the recorded treatment incidences were highest during the period 1910–1920, far exceeding those in Africans. Europeans were overwhelmingly male and had frequent sexual contact with African females. Consequently, high STD incidence among Europeans must have coincided with high prevalence and incidence in the city’s African population. The data strongly suggest the worst STD period was 1910–1920 for both Africans and Europeans, which coincides with the estimated origin of pandemic HIV-1. Given the strong effect of STD coinfections on HIV transmission, these new data support our hypothesis of a causal effect of STDs on the epidemic emergence of HIV-1.

scholarly journals The 2020 Reform of the Water and Sanitation Services Sector in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-88
Author(s):  
C. M. Nunes ◽  
A. A. Anderaos ◽  
Cintia Leal Marinho de Araujo
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Universal Coverage ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Barriers To Entry ◽  
Water And Sanitation ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sanitation Services ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Water Companies

With over 100 million people without access to sewage collection and treatment and over 35 million lacking access to piped drinking water, the water and sanitation services (WSS) sector in Brazil ranks last among all the infrastructure sectors. Despite previous efforts to reach universal coverage, the gap remains wide. In order to reduce this gap, the Brazilian Parliament approved the reform of the WSS sector in July 2020. This paper examines the state of the water and sanitation services in Brazil before 2020 as well as the potential effects of the recently approved reform. It demonstrates that the sector’s primary issues are the fragmented institutional arrangements and regulations, the low levels of investments by the public sector, including those made by State-owned water companies, and the barriers to entry for the private sector. The paper also discusses the new provisions included in the reform designed to remedy those issues. The authors believe that the reform has the potential to promote significant changes in the structure of the WSS towards providing a universal and equitable service in Brazil, but at a slower pace than the reformers anticipated.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in obstetrics 2020: the experience at a New York City medical center

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 892-899
Author(s):  
Ashlesha K. Dayal ◽  
Armin S. Razavi ◽  
Amir K. Jaffer ◽  
Nishant Prasad ◽  
Daniel W. Skupski
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriage ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Workforce Flexibility

AbstractThe global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early months of 2020 was rapid and exposed vulnerabilities in health systems throughout the world. Obstetric SARS-CoV-2 disease was discovered to be largely asymptomatic carriage but included a small rate of severe disease with rapid decompensation in otherwise healthy women. Higher rates of hospitalization, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and intubation, along with higher infection rates in minority and disadvantaged populations have been documented across regions. The operational gymnastics that occurred daily during the Covid-19 emergency needed to be translated to the obstetrics realm, both inpatient and ambulatory. Resources for adaptation to the public health crisis included workforce flexibility, frequent communication of operational and protocol changes for evaluation and management, and application of innovative ideas to meet the demand.

scholarly journals Overuse of Health Care in the Emergency Services in Chile

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3082
Author(s):  
Ximena Alvial ◽  
Alejandra Rojas ◽  
Raúl Carrasco ◽  
Claudia Durán ◽  
Christian Fernández-Campusano
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Healthcare Network ◽  
Use Of Emergency Services ◽  
Low Coverage ◽  
Different Levels

The Public Health Service in Chile consists of different levels of complexity and coverage depending on the severity and degree of specialization of the pathology to be treated. From primary to tertiary care, tertiary care is highly complex and has low coverage. This work focuses on an analysis of the public health system with emphasis on the healthcare network and tertiary care, whose objectives are designed to respond to the needs of each patient. A review of the literature and a field study of the problem of studying the perception of internal and external users is presented. This study intends to be a contribution in the detection of opportunities for the relevant actors and the processes involved through the performance of Triage. The main causes and limitations of the excessive use of emergency services in Chile are analyzed and concrete proposals are generated aiming to benefit clinical care in emergency services. Finally, improvements related to management are proposed and the main aspects are determined to improve decision-making in hospitals, which could be a contribution to public health policies.

scholarly journals Quantification and classification in education: What is at stake?

2021 ◽  
pp. 147821032110320
Author(s):  
Ann Christin Eklund Nilsen ◽  
Ove Skarpenes
Keyword(s):  
Sociology Of Knowledge ◽  
Central Place ◽  
Social Phenomenon ◽  
Ian Hacking ◽  
The Public ◽  
Statistical Knowledge ◽  
The Social ◽  
State Bureaucracy ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
Different Levels

Histories of statistics and quantification have demonstrated that systems of statistical knowledge participate in the construction of the objects that are measured. However, the pace, purpose, and scope of quantification in state bureaucracy have expanded greatly over the past decades, fuelled by (neoliberal) societal trends that have given the social phenomenon of quantification a central place in political discussions and in the public sphere. This is particularly the case in the field of education. In this article, we ask what is at stake in state bureaucracy, professional practice, and individual pupils as quantification increasingly permeates the education field. We call for a theoretical renewal in order to understand quantification as a social phenomenon in education. We propose a sociology-of-knowledge approach to the phenomenon, drawing on different theoretical traditions in the sociology of knowledge in France (Alain Desrosières and Laurent Thévenot), England (Barry Barnes and Donald MacKenzie), and Canada (Ian Hacking), and argue that the ongoing quantification practice at different levels of the education system can be understood as cultural processes of self-fulfilling prophecies.

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