Computer simulation of fir forest dynamics in the Bieszczady Mountains in response to climate change

Results of investigation of fir forest dynamics in the Bieszczady Mountains using a FORKOME (FORest KOzak MEnshutkin) model in response to climate changes are presented. The model was verified in field trials in 1998–2001 in a fir forest in forest district Procisne in the Bieszczady Mountains (Poland). Prediction of tree biomass and tree number was made for the next 600 years. The simulation demonstrated beech domination when mean annual temperature increases by 2°C while with a decrease in temperature by 2°C fir becomes dominant in the examined area. Both one simulation run and Monte Carlo simulation showed comparable results in statistical analysis. The results of FORKOME model simulations enable to set a thesis that forest succession may be used for evaluating the level of climate-change influence on forest ecosystems. Presented results indicate great usefulness of the model while investigating various subjects, especially concerning climate changes, which may have both theoretical and practical importance.

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Climate-induced treeline mortality during the termination of the Little Ice Age in the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion, USA

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/09596836211011656 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095968362110116

Author(s):

Maegen L Rochner ◽

Karen J Heeter ◽

Grant L Harley ◽

Matthew F Bekker ◽

Sally P Horn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Little Ice Age ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Ice Age ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Whitebark Pine ◽

Engelmann Spruce ◽

Greater Yellowstone

Paleoclimate reconstructions for the western US show spatial variability in the timing, duration, and magnitude of climate changes within the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ca. 900–1350 CE) and Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1350–1850 CE), indicating that additional data are needed to more completely characterize late-Holocene climate change in the region. Here, we use dendrochronology to investigate how climate changes during the MCA and LIA affected a treeline, whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) ecosystem in the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion (GYE). We present two new millennial-length tree-ring chronologies and multiple lines of tree-ring evidence from living and remnant whitebark pine and Engelmann spruce ( Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm.) trees, including patterns of establishment and mortality; changes in tree growth; frost rings; and blue-intensity-based, reconstructed summer temperatures, to highlight the terminus of the LIA as one of the coldest periods of the last millennium for the GYE. Patterns of tree establishment and mortality indicate conditions favorable to recruitment during the latter half of the MCA and climate-induced mortality of trees during the middle-to-late LIA. These patterns correspond with decreased growth, frost damage, and reconstructed cooler temperature anomalies for the 1800–1850 CE period. Results provide important insight into how past climate change affected important GYE ecosystems and highlight the value of using multiple lines of proxy evidence, along with climate reconstructions of high spatial resolution, to better describe spatial and temporal variability in MCA and LIA climate and the ecological influence of climate change.

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Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Ecological Processes ◽

10.1186/s13717-020-00259-0 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Nabaz R. Khwarahm

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Future Climate ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Kurdistan Region ◽

Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

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Dynamics of export potential of sunflower oil in Ukraine

Helia ◽

10.1515/helia-2021-0001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Kateryna Vasylkovska ◽

Olha Andriienko ◽

Oleksii Vasylkovskyi ◽

Andrii Andriienko ◽

Popov Volodymyr ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Comparative Analysis ◽

Sunflower Oil ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Qualitative Change ◽

Sunflower Seeds ◽

Cultivation Technology ◽

Selection Of

Abstract The analysis of the production and yield of sunflower seeds in Ukraine for the period from 2000 to 2019 was conducted in the article. The comparative analysis of the gross harvest of sunflower seeds and the export of sunflower oil for the years under research was carried out. The dependence of exports on gross harvest was revealed and its share was calculated. It was determined that the export of sunflower oil has increased over the years under research, which indicates a significant Ukraine’s export potential. It was found that the increase in the share of exports by 15.9% was made possible by a qualitative change in yield, that was ensured by the changes in the cultivation technology and by the selection of sunflower hybrids that are better adapted to climate changes. The recommendations for further improvement of cultivation technology in connection with climate change in order to further increase yields and the export potential of Ukraine were given.

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The Effect of Elicitors and Canopy Management in the Chemical Composition of Vitis vinifera Red Varieties in Warm and Hot Areas in Spain

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11061192 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 1192

Author(s):

Natalia Gutiérrez ◽

Leyre López-de-Silanes ◽

Carlos Escott ◽

Iris Loira ◽

Juan Manuel del Fresno ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Chemical Composition ◽

Vitis Vinifera ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Management Practices ◽

Total Phenolic ◽

Phenolic Fraction ◽

Biological Origin ◽

Phenolic Index ◽

Canopy Management

Canopy management practices in vineyards, such as sprawling systems and shoot trimming, can change the accumulation of metabolites in grapes. The use of elicitors of biological origin on grapevines of Vitis vinifera red grape varieties may also modulate the chemical composition of the berries. These modifications are often observed in the accumulation of phenolic compounds, including pigments. Both technical approaches are alternatives involved in minimizing the effects of global climate change in warm areas. The increase of temperature related to climate change accelerates the accumulation of sugars, but produces unbalanced grapes. This work establishes the use of button sensors to monitor the climate changes occurring at grape cluster level. Together with climate monitoring, conventional instrumental analytical techniques are used to follow up the chemical composition and the phenolic fraction of grapes in four different production areas in Spain. The effect of either treatment seems variable and to be affected by external factors besides the treatment itself and the climate conditions. While there is a fine effect that correlates with the use of elicitors in varieties like Merlot and Tempranillo, there is minimal improvement observed in Tintilla de Rota. The total phenolic index increases were between 2.3% and 11.8% in the first two parcels. The same happened with the vineyard’s canopy management systems, with increased pigment accumulation and the total phenolic index rising (37.7% to 68.7%) after applying intense shoot trimming, or a variation in sugar concentrations when using sprawl conduction. This study aims to provide viticulturists and oenologists in particular, and farmers in general, with data on the field regarding the use of alternative sustainable practices in the cultivation of grapes. The techniques used involved 100% natural products without adjuvants. The benefits obtained from applying some of these practices would be to produce technically mature grapes despite climate changes, and the elaboration of more balanced wines.

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The Effects of Biotic and Abiotic Factors on the Community Dynamics in a Mountain Subtropical Forest

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040427 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 427

Author(s):

Tianyang Zhou ◽

Jiaxin Zhang ◽

Yunzhi Qin ◽

Mingxi Jiang ◽

Xiujuan Qiao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Forest Dynamics ◽

Community Dynamics ◽

Abiotic Factors ◽

Subtropical Forest ◽

Above Ground Biomass ◽

Short Term ◽

Forest Ecosystem Services ◽

Number Of Individuals

From supporting wood production to mitigating climate change, forest ecosystem services are crucial to the well-being of humans. Understanding the mechanisms that drive forest dynamics can help us infer how to maintain forest ecosystem services and how to improve predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Despite the growing number of studies exploring above ground biomass (AGB) dynamics, questions of dynamics in biodiversity and in number of individuals still remain unclear. Here, we first explored the patterns of community dynamics in different aspects (i.e., AGB, density and biodiversity) based on short-term (five years) data from a 25-ha permanent plot in a subtropical forest in central China. Second, we examined the relationships between community dynamics and biodiversity and functional traits. Third, we identified the key factors affecting different aspects of community dynamics and quantified their relative contributions. We found that in the short term (five years), net above ground biomass change (ΔAGB) and biodiversity increased, while the number of individuals decreased. Resource-conservation traits enhanced the ΔAGB and reduced the loss in individuals, while the resource-acquisition traits had the opposite effect. Furthermore, the community structure contributed the most to ΔAGB; topographic variables and soil nutrients contributed the most to the number of individuals; demographic process contributed the most to biodiversity. Our results indicate that biotic factors mostly affected the community dynamics of ΔAGB and biodiversity, while the number of individuals was mainly shaped by abiotic factors. Our work highlighted that the factors influencing different aspects of community dynamics vary. Therefore, forest management practices should be formulated according to a specific protective purpose.

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Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1007/s13143-021-00225-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hyun Min Sung ◽

Jisun Kim ◽

Sungbo Shim ◽

Jeong-byn Seo ◽

Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Earth System Model ◽

First Century ◽

System Model ◽

The Arctic ◽

Earth System ◽

Future Projections ◽

Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

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Application of a 1 km2 resolution model for climate change effects upon Benin and Nigeria vegetable agriculture

GEOMATICA ◽

10.1139/geomat-2019-0014 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 73 (4) ◽

pp. 93-106

Author(s):

Colin Minielly ◽

O. Clement Adebooye ◽

P.B. Irenikatche Akponikpe ◽

Durodoluwa J. Oyedele ◽

Dirk de Boer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Field Trials ◽

Development Planning ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Amaranthus Cruentus ◽

Global Issues ◽

Climate Change Effects

Climate change and food security are complex global issues that require multidisciplinary approaches to resolve. A nexus exists between both issues, especially in developing countries, but little prior research has successfully bridged the divide. Existing resolutions to climate change and food security are expensive and resource demanding. Climate modelling is at the forefront of climate change literature and development planning, whereas agronomy research is leading food security plans. The Benin Republic and Nigeria have grown and developed in recent years but may not have all the tools required to implement and sustain long-term food security in the face of climate change. The objective of this paper is to describe the development and outputs of a new model that bridges climate change and food security. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 5th Regional Assessment (IPCC AR5) were combined with a biodiversity database to develop the model to derive these outputs. The model was used to demonstrate what potential impacts climate change will have on the regional food security by incorporating agronomic data from four local underutilized indigenous vegetables (Amaranthus cruentus L., Solanum macrocarpon L., Telfairia occidentalis Hook f., and Ocimum gratissimum L.). The model shows that, by 2099, there is significant uncertainty within the optimal recommendations that originated from the MicroVeg project. This suggests that MicroVeg will not have long-term success for food security unless additional options (e.g., new field trials, shifts in vegetable grown) are considered, creating the need for need for more dissemination tools.

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The Impact of Different Environmental Conditions during Vegetative Propagation on Growth, Survival, and Biochemical Characteristics in Populus Hybrids in Clonal Field Trial

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12070892 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 892

Author(s):

Valda Gudynaitė-Franckevičienė ◽

Alfas Pliūra

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Phenotypic Plasticity ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Vegetative Propagation ◽

Genotypic Variation ◽

Hybrid Poplar ◽

Field Trials ◽

Biochemical Traits ◽

Suburban Areas ◽

Growing Conditions

To have a cleaner environment, good well-being, and improve the health of citizens it is necessary to expand green urban and suburban areas using productive and adapted material of tree species. The quality of urban greenery, resistance to negative climate change factors and pollution, as well as efficiency of short-rotation forestry in suburban areas, depends primarily on the selection of hybrids and clones, suitable for the local environmental conditions. We postulate that ecogenetic response, phenotypic plasticity, and genotypic variation of hybrid poplars (Populus L.) grown in plantations are affected not only by the peculiarities of hybrids and clones, but also by environmental conditions of their vegetative propagation. The aim of the present study was to estimate growth and biochemical responses, the phenotypic plasticity, genotypic variation of adaptive traits, and genetically regulated adaptability of Populus hybrids in field trials which may be predisposed by the simulated contrasting temperature conditions at their vegetative propagation phase. The research was performed with the 20 cultivars and experimental clones of one intraspecific cross and four different interspecific hybrids of poplars propagated under six contrasting temperature regimes in phytotron. The results suggest that certain environmental conditions during vegetative propagation not only have a short-term effect on tree viability and growth, but also can help to adapt to climate change conditions and grow successfully in the long-term. It was found that tree growth and biochemical traits (the chlorophyll A and B, pigments content and the chlorophyll A/B ratio) of hybrid poplar clones grown in field trials, as well as their traits’ genetic parameters, were affected by the rooting-growing conditions during vegetative propagation phase. Hybrids P. balsamifera × P. trichocarpa, and P. trichocarpa × P. trichocarpa have shown the most substantial changes of biochemical traits across vegetative propagation treatments in field trial. Rooting-growing conditions during vegetative propagation had also an impact on coefficients of genotypic variation and heritability in hybrid poplar clones when grown in field trials.

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“Modes of Variability” and Climate Change

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2517.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (10) ◽

pp. 2639-2658 ◽

Cited By ~ 49

Author(s):

Grant Branstator ◽

Frank Selten

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Stochastic Model ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Meridional Wind ◽

Model Atmosphere ◽

Linear Pattern ◽

Modes Of Variability ◽

Mean State

Abstract A 62-member ensemble of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the years 1940–2080, including the effects of projected greenhouse gas increases, is examined. The focus is on the interplay between the trend in the Northern Hemisphere December–February (DJF) mean state and the intrinsic modes of variability of the model atmosphere as given by the upper-tropospheric meridional wind. The structure of the leading modes and the trend are similar. Two commonly proposed explanations for this similarity are considered. Several results suggest that this similarity in most respects is consistent with an explanation involving patterns that result from the model dynamics being well approximated by a linear system. Specifically, the leading intrinsic modes are similar to the leading modes of a stochastic model linearized about the mean state of the GCM atmosphere, trends in GCM tropical precipitation appear to excite the leading linear pattern, and the probability density functions (PDFs) of prominent circulation patterns are quasi-Gaussian. There are, on the other hand, some subtle indications that an explanation for the similarity involving preferred states (which necessarily result from nonlinear influences) has some relevance. For example, though unimodal, PDFs of prominent patterns have departures from Gaussianity that are suggestive of a mixture of two Gaussian components. And there is some evidence of a shift in probability between the two components as the climate changes. Interestingly, contrary to the most prominent theory of the influence of nonlinearly produced preferred states on climate change, the centroids of the components also change as the climate changes. This modification of the system’s preferred states corresponds to a change in the structure of its dominant patterns. The change in pattern structure is reproduced by the linear stochastic model when its basic state is modified to correspond to the trend in the general circulation model’s mean atmospheric state. Thus, there is a two-way interaction between the trend and the modes of variability.

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Altitudinal Vascular Plant Richness and Climate Change in the Alpine Zone of the Lefka Ori, Crete

Diversity ◽

10.3390/d13010022 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 22

Author(s):

George Kazakis ◽

Dany Ghosn ◽

Ilektra Remoundou ◽

Panagiotis Nyktas ◽

Michael A. Talias ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Richness ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Vascular Plant ◽

Monitoring Network ◽

Mediterranean Area ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

High Mountain ◽

Species Loss ◽

Total Species Richness

High mountain zones in the Mediterranean area are considered more vulnerable in comparison to lower altitudes zones. Lefka Ori massif, a global biodiversity hotspot on the island of Crete is part of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) monitoring network. The paper examines species and vegetation changes with respect to climate and altitude over a seven-year period (2001–2008) at a range of spatial scales (10 m Summit Area Section-SAS, 5 m SAS, 1 m2) using the GLORIA protocol in a re-survey of four mountain summits (1664 m–2339 m). The absolute species loss between 2001–2008 was 4, among which were 2 endemics. At the scale of individual summits, the highest changes were recorded at the lower summits with absolute species loss 4 in both cases. Paired t-tests for the total species richness at 1 m2 between 2001–2008, showed no significant differences. No significant differences were found at the individual summit level neither at the 5 m SAS or the 10 m SAS. Time series analysis reveals that soil mean annual temperature is increasing at all summits. Linear regressions with the climatic variables show a positive effect on species richness at the 5 m and 10 m SAS as well as species changes at the 5 m SAS. In particular, June mean temperature has the highest predictive power for species changes at the 5 m SAS. Recorded changes in species richness point more towards fluctuations within a plant community’s normal range, although there seem to be more significant diversity changes in higher summits related to aspects. Our work provides additional evidence to assess the effects of climate change on plant diversity in Mediterranean mountains and particularly those of islands which remain understudied.

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