scholarly journals COVID-19-like symptoms and their relation to SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in children and adults of an Italian birth cohort

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maja Popovic ◽  
Chiara Moccia ◽  
Elena Isaevska ◽  
Giovenale Moirano ◽  
Costanza Pizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Muscle Pain ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Background Emerging COVID-19 pandemic caused extensive lockdowns in a number of countries, but yet unknown number of cases positive to SARS-CoV-2 escapes surveillance systems. Methods Mothers participating in an Italian NINFEA birth cohort were invited to complete an online questionnaire on COVID-19-like symptoms in the household. We estimated the population prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in children and adults, assessed their geographical correlation with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases by province, analysed their clustering within families, and estimated their sensitivity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for COVID-19 diagnosis in individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2.Results Information was collected on 3184 households, 6133 adults, and 5751 children. There was a strong geographical correlation between the population cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the prevalence of muscle pain, fatigue, low-grade fever, and breathing difficulties in adults (Spearman’s rho ≥0.70). Having at least one family member with a COVID-19 diagnosis, compared with none tested for SARS-CoV-2, was associated with an increased prevalence ratio of almost all COVID-19-like symptoms in adults, and only of low-grade fever (37-37.5oC; prevalence ratio 5.27; 95% confidence intervals: 2.37 to 11.74) and anosmia/dysgeusia in children. Among adults with COVID-19, fatigue, muscle pain, and fever had a sensitivity ≥70%. In individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, with a 16.6% prevalence of COVID-19, breathing difficulties and nausea/vomiting had the highest PPVs, with point estimates close to 60%, and with NPVs close to 90%. Among tested Piedmont residents, with a COVID-19 prevalence of 18.5%, breathing difficulties and anosmia/disguesia reached PPVs above 80%.Conclusion Geographical prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in adults may inform on local disease clusters, while certain symptoms in family members of confirmed COVID-19 cases could help identification of the intra-familial spread of the virus and its further propagation in the community. Low-grade fever is frequent in children with at least one household member with COVID-19 and possibly indicates child infection.

scholarly journals COVID-19-like symptoms and their relation to SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in children and adults of an Italian birth cohort

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maja Popovic ◽  
Chiara Moccia ◽  
Elena Isaevska ◽  
Giovenale Moirano ◽  
Costanza Pizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Muscle Pain ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Background A number of cases positive for SARS-CoV-2 escape surveillance systems, especially in the first epidemic waves and/or when the number of cases becomes too large to allow complete diagnostic coverage. Methods During the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave hitting Italy in the spring 2020, mothers participating in an Italian NINFEA birth cohort were invited to complete an online questionnaire on COVID-19-like symptoms in the household. We estimated the population prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in children and adults, assessed their geographical correlation with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases by province, analysed their clustering within families, and estimated their sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19 diagnosis in individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2.Results Information was collected on 3184 households, 6133 adults, and 5751 children. In the period March-April 2020, 55.4% of the NINFEA families had at least one member with at least one COVID-19-like symptom. There was a strong geographical correlation between the population cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the prevalence of muscle pain, fatigue, low-grade fever, and breathing difficulties in adults (Spearman’s rho ≥0.70). Having at least one family member with a COVID-19 diagnosis, compared with none tested for SARS-CoV-2, was associated with an increased prevalence ratio (PR) of almost all COVID-19-like symptoms in adults, and only of low-grade fever (37-37.5°C; PR 5.27; 95% confidence intervals: 2.37 to 11.74) and anosmia/dysgeusia in children. Among adults with COVID-19 diagnosis, fatigue, muscle pain, and fever had a sensitivity ≥70%. In individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, with a 16.6% prevalence of COVID-19, breathing difficulties and nausea/vomiting had the highest PPVs, with point estimates close to 60%, and with NPVs close to 90%.Conclusions The geographical prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in adults may inform on local disease clusters, while certain symptoms in family members of confirmed COVID-19 cases could help identify the intra-familial spread of the virus and its further propagation in the community. Low-grade fever is frequent in children with at least one household member with COVID-19 and possibly indicates child infection.

Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Modelling spreading of an infection using time series by a novel family of models; fitting the time series of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Jamshidi ◽  
Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran ◽  
Mansour Rezaei
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Family ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractIntroductionTime series models are one of the frequently used methods to describe the pattern of spreading an epidemic.MethodsWe presented a new family of time series models able to represent the cumulative number of individuals that contracted an infectious disease from the start to the end of the first wave of spreading. This family is flexible enough to model the propagation of almost all infectious diseases. After a general discussion on competent time series to model the outbreak of a communicable disease, we introduced the new family through one of its examples.ResultsWe estimated the parameters of two samples of the novel family to model the spreading of COVID-19 in China.DiscussionOur model does not work well when the decreasing trend of the rate of growth is absent because it is the main presumption of the model. In addition, since the information on the initial days is of the utmost importance for this model, one of the challenges about this model is modifying it to get qualified to model datasets that lack the information on the first days.

scholarly journals FRI0234 A HIGH NEMO SCORE IN VIDEOCAPILLAROSCOPY IS PREDICTIVE OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF DIGITAL ULCERS IN PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 700.1-701
Author(s):  
N. Del Papa ◽  
F. Pignataro ◽  
W. Maglione ◽  
A. Minniti ◽  
D. Sambataro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Sclerosis ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Subsequent Development ◽  
State Level ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Digital Ulcers ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Predictive Values

Background:Nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) is a feasible method that allows the observation and follow-up of the microvascular changes that mark the course of Systemic Sclerosis (SSc). In previous studies, we demonstrated that the NEMO score, namely the cumulative Number of microhaEMOrrhages and microthromboses, is a good indicator of the steady state level and over time changes of disease activity (DA) in SSc (1-3).Objectives:To verify whether a high NEMO score, and then a high level of active microvascular derangement in the fingers may be predictive of the subsequent development of ischemic digital ulcers (IDUs).Methods:The NEMO score was assessed at baseline (T0) in 98 patients affected by SSc, according to the ACR-EULAR criteria. Out of them, 90 were females, 48 had the limited form and 50 the diffuse cutaneous variant of SSc. ACA and anti-Scl-70 antibodies were positive in 42 and 50 patients, respectively. The NVC pattern was early, active and late in 16, 42 and 40 patients, respectively.Afterwards, patients were closely followed up for 3 years, and the appearance of new IDUs was recorded in any time of the follow up.The T0-NEMO score values of patients who developed IDUs were compared to those of patients who did not. A receiver operating curve (ROC) was constructed, and the area under the curve (AUC) calculated, by plotting the sensitivity and 1-specificity of the different NEMO score values in predicting the development of IDUs.Results:During the follow up, 38 out of 98 patients developed one or more DUs. The NEMO score at T0 was significantly higher in those who developed IDUs with respect to those who did not [median 14.5 (CI 11.0-21.5), and 4.5 (CI 4.0-6.0), respectively, p<.0001]. The AUC was 0.79 (CI 0.69-0.86, p<0.0001). A NEMO score of 12 or more had a sensitivity of 83.3 (CI 71.5-91.7), and a specificity of 63.2 (CI 46.0-78.2), with positive (P) and negative (N) predictive values (PV) of 59.1 (CI 44.9-72.3), and 85.6 (CI 71.7-94.3), respectively. A NEMO score of 16 or more had a sensitivity of 95.0 (CI 86.1-99.0), and a NPV of 93.3 (CI 77.4-99.2).Conclusion:NEMO score is not only a valid tool to assess the level of DA in the course of SSc, but this NVC parameter could also be used as a good predictor of the future development of IDUs in patients with this disease.References:[1]Sambataro et al. Arthritis Res Ther 2014;16:462-69[2]Andracco et al. Arthritis Res Ther 2017;19:133-41[3]Pignataro et al. Arthritis Res Ther. 2019;21(1):258Disclosure of Interests:Nicoletta Del Papa: None declared, Francesca Pignataro: None declared, Wanda Maglione: None declared, Antonina Minniti: None declared, Domenico Sambataro: None declared, Gianluca Sambataro: None declared, Gabriele Valentini Grant/research support from: BMS, MSD, NOVARTIS, LILLY, PFIZER, ABBVIE, CELGENE, Claudio Vitali: None declared, Roberto Caporali Consultant of: AbbVie; Gilead Sciences, Inc.; Lilly; Merck Sharp & Dohme; Celgene; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Pfizer; UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Celgene; Lilly; Gilead Sciences, Inc; MSD; Pfizer; Roche; UCB

A Thematic Analysis Of Incivility In Online Classroom: A Study In Indian Context

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (09) ◽  
pp. 65-84
Author(s):  
Aditi Gupta ◽  
◽  
Anshika Sharma ◽  
Prof. Patiraj Kumari ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Education ◽  
Thematic Analysis ◽  
Online Teaching ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Online Classroom ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Academic Activities ◽  
Almost All

The current situation of COVID 19 not only involves global health crisis but also economic and social crises. It has brought about a change in the system of education by conducting all academic activities online. Acc. to ILO, a world of universal distance education (as nearly 94% of learners have faced school closures) is created. Online education is a new concept for most Indians, creates room for incivility. Incivility is defined as a lack of manners, courteousness, and respect which deteriorates the decorum leading to disturbance in teaching and learning of the class. This study is focused on incivility in online teaching and learning. A total of 130 college students from around the country were asked to fill an open-ended online questionnaire to know their views on incivility in the online classroom. The overall thematic analysis resulted in the identification of three themes i.e. reported incidents, possible causes, and measures to reduce incivility in the online classrooms. In the time of pandemic where almost all the dissemination of education is done online to minimize the effect of the pandemic on the education system, incivility is a stumbling block. Therefore, it is important to bring incivility in online education in limelight as tackling incivility is the need of the hour.

scholarly journals Waist circumference and waist-hip ratio as screening tools for hypertension in children aged 6–11 years

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
pp. 265-70
Author(s):  
Esti Istiqomah ◽  
Dida A. Gurnida ◽  
Dany Hilmanto ◽  
Dzulfikar Djalil Lukmanul Hakim ◽  
Prima Nanda Fauziah
Keyword(s):  
Waist Circumference ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Screening Tools ◽  
Hip Circumference ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Anthropometric Parameters ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Waist Hip Ratio ◽  
Hypertensive Group ◽  
Hypertension In Children

Background Hypertension in children is associated with obesity. 7 The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system has been associated with intra-abdominal fat tissue. Anthropometric parameters for determining nutritional status include waist circumference and waist-hip ratio. Many studies have shown that waist circumference and waist-hip ratio are more precise to determine overweight or obese. Objective To determine the usefulness of waist circumference and waist-hip ratio as hypertensive screening tools for children aged 6-11 years. Methods This analytical study with cross-sectional design and multistage cluster sampling method was conducted in August-September 2017 at a primary school in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. Subjects underwent height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, and blood pressure measurements. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was done to obtain the area under curve (AUC), cut-off point, sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence ratio. Results Subjects were 325 children consisting of 187 males and 138 females. Hypertension was diagnosed in 47 children (37 males and 10 females). Mean waist circumference and waist-hip circumference ratio were significantly higher in the hypertensive group than in the normotensive group. The hypertensive group had a mean waist circumference of 72.6 (SD 12.8) cm, AUC 0.779 (95%CI 0.730 to 0.823; P<0.001), cut-off point >65 cm, sensitivity 66.0%, specificity 76.3%, and prevalence ratio 4.55. This group had mean waist-hip ratio of 0.94 (SD 0.10), AUC 0.724 (95%CI 0.672 to 0.772; P<0.001), waist-hip ratio cut-off >0.91, sensitivity 59.6%, specificity 77.0%, and prevalence ratio 3.73. Conclusion Waist circumference >65 cm or waist-hip ratio >0.91 can be used to screen for hypertension in children aged 6-11 years with negative predictive values of 92.0% and 91.8%, respectively.  

scholarly journals Study of the sensitivity and specificity of smell and taste disorders as a predictive factor of SARS-CoV-2 infection among primary care healthcare professionals

BJGP Open ◽  
2022 ◽  
pp. BJGPO.2021.0141
Author(s):  
Anna Ruiz-Comellas ◽  
Pere Roura Poch ◽  
Glòria Sauch Valmaña ◽  
Víctor Guadalupe-Fernández ◽  
Jacobo Mendioroz Peña ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Standard Value ◽  
Taste Disorders ◽  
Smell Disorders ◽  
Taste And Smell

Backgroundamong the manifestations of COVID-19 are Taste and Smell Disorders (TSDs).AimThe aim of the study is to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of TSDs and other associated symptoms to estimate predictive values for determining SARS-CoV-2 infection.Design and settingRetrospective observational study.Methodsa study of the sensitivity and specificity of TSDs has been carried out using the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 as the Gold Standard value. Logistic regressions adjusted for age and sex were performed to identify additional symptoms that might be associated with COVID-19.Resultsthe results are based on 226 healthcare workers with clinical symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, 116 with positive PCR and 111 with negative PCR. TSDs had an OR of 12.43 (CI 0.95 6.33–26.19), sensitivity 60.34% and specificity 89.09%. In the logistic regression model, the association of TSD, fever or low-grade fever, shivering, dyspnoea, arthralgia and myalgia obtained an area under the curve of 85.7% (CI 0.95: 80.7 % - 90.7 %), sensitivity 82.8 %, specificity 80% and positive predictive values 81.4% and negative 81.5%.ConclusionsTSDs are a strong predictor of COVID-19. The association of TSD, fever, low-grade fever or shivering, dyspnoea, arthralgia and myalgia correctly predicts 85.7% of the results of the COVID-19 test.

scholarly journals UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS’ VIEWS ABOUT EMERGENCY DISTANCE EDUCATION DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gürhan Durak ◽  
Serkan Çankaya
Keyword(s):  
Distance Education ◽  
University Students ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Education System ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovations ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Distance Education System

With the Covid-19 pandemic, which was effective all over the world in early 2020, emergency distance education applications started. Universities in Turkey also suffered from this situation and quickly started their own distance education applications using their own facilities. Different applications carried out by universities have had different reflections upon education. For example, while some universities provided compulsory live classes, some universities did not. Students are the most important component of this process. In this respect, the purpose of this study was to examine university students' views about emergency distance education during the Covid-19 pandemic. In this qualitatively designed study, 32 students from 4 different universities were asked for their views. An online questionnaire form made up of open-ended questions was used as the data collection tool. The data were analyzed using the content analysis method, and the themes were created. As a result, two of the four universities used the software of Microsoft Teams as a distance education system, while others preferred the software of Moodle and ALMS. It could be said that the students who used Microsoft Teams, which is an integrated system where live lessons can be held, were more satisfied in this process. In addition, the students' views about the distance education system, the positive and negative aspects of the system, live course practices, communication with the instructor, getting feedback, socialization, motivation, academic performance, comparison with traditional teaching, etc. were reported and interpreted within the scope of the theories of Uses and Gratifications and Diffusion of Innovations. It was seen that among the university students almost all of whom were anxious before the distance education, the worries of those who took live lessons and used an integrated system were completely removed. In this respect, within the scope of the distance education system, it could be stated that the elements of live lessons and interaction have great importance for students. <p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0720/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

scholarly journals The effect of insulin resistance on inflammation markers in individuals with obesity

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 619-622
Author(s):  
Hasan Atlı ◽  
Erhan Önalan ◽  
Burkay Yakar ◽  
Deccane Duzenci ◽  
Emir Dönder
Keyword(s):  
Insulin Resistance ◽  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Normal Body Mass Index ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Inflammation Markers ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Normal Body ◽  
Significant Difference

Objective: Obesity has recently been recognized as a chronic low-grade inflammation condition. We aimed to compare the predictive values of insulin resistance and inflammatory indices in individuals with obesity. Materials and Methods: 124 people who had a health check for obesity-related risk factors in our hospital between June 2018 and September 2019 were included in the study. Inflammatory markers of the patients were evaluated. Results: The study group consists of a total of 224 people, and we compared the demographic data and laboratory parameters of the individuals. C-reactive protein (CRP) levels of obese individuals were statistically higher than those with normal body mass index (p <0.001). There was no statistically significant difference between the groups in terms of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) values, among other inflammation markers. A positive and statistically significant correlation was found between body mass index and CRP level (r = 0.334, p <0.001). There was no significant correlation between body mass index and NLR and PLR. Conclusion: As a result, CRP levels of obese individuals were statistically higher than individuals with normal body mass index. No statistically significant difference was found between the groups in terms of NLR and PLR values among other inflammation markers.

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