scholarly journals An Empirical Model to Estimate the Effect of Social Distance Levels on COVID-19 Outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Tabesh ◽  
Azadeh Saki ◽  
Rozita Saki
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Minimum Level ◽  
Growth Ratio ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rule Model ◽  
And Control

Abstract The implementation of social distancing measures for controlling the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19) in different countries has not been at the same level due to differences in policies, economies, and cultures. Hence, the effect of this pandemic on different aspects of societies varies depending on several factors.In this study, we found that the speed of disease transmission is directly related to the odds of being exposed to the disease in the society, that is directly related to the level of practicing social distancing measures. We introduced the weekly growth ratio (WGR) index and proposed an experimental rule model to monitor the current level of social distancing and predict the levels of intervention so as to reduce the WGR and control the sequential peaks. Our model showed that the minimum level of practicing social distancing in the community should be 80% to control the first peak of the disease; but after controlling the first peak, maintaining 50% of social distancing policies continuously keeps the number of cases/deaths constant and prevents the occurrence of a new peak.

scholarly journals An Empirical Model to Estimate the Effect of Social Distance Levels on COVID-19 Outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Tabesh ◽  
Azadeh Saki ◽  
Rozita Saki
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Minimum Level ◽  
Growth Ratio ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rule Model ◽  
And Control

Abstract The implementation of social distancing measures for controlling the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19) in different countries has not been at the same level due to differences in policies, economies, and cultures. Hence, the effect of this pandemic on different aspects of societies varies depending on several factors.In this study, we found that the speed of disease transmission is directly related to the odds of being exposed to the disease in the society, that is directly related to the level of practicing social distancing measures. We introduced the weekly growth ratio (WGR) index and proposed an experimental rule model to monitor the current level of social distancing and predict the levels of intervention so as to reduce the WGR and control the sequential peaks. Our model showed that the minimum level of practicing social distancing in the community should be 80% to control the first peak of the disease; but after controlling the first peak, maintaining 50% of social distancing policies continuously keeps the number of cases/deaths constant and prevents the occurrence of a new peak.

scholarly journals Finding an optimal distance of social distancing for COVID 19

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 206-220
Author(s):  
J Samuel Manoharan
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
True Detection ◽  
The Impact

Social distancing is a non-pharmaceutical infection prevention and control approach that is now being utilized in the COVID-19 scenario to avoid or restrict the transmission of illness in a community. As a consequence, the disease transmission, as well as the morbidity and mortality associated with it are reduced. The deadly coronavirus will circulate if the distance between the two persons in each site is used. However, coronavirus exposure must be avoided at all costs. The distance varies due to different nations' political rules and the conditions of their medical embassy. The WHO established a social distance of 1 to 2 metres as the standard. This research work has developed a computational method for estimating the impact of coronavirus based on various social distancing metrics. Generally, in COVID – 19 situations, social distance ranging from long to extremely long can be a good strategy. The adoption of extremely small social distance is a harmful approach to the pandemic. This calculation can be done by using deep learning based on crowd image identification. The proposed work has been utilized to find the optimal social distancing for COVID – 19 and it is identified as 1.89 meter. The purpose of the proposed experiment is to compare the different types of deep learning based image recognition algorithms in a crowded environment. The performance can be measured with various metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and true detection rate.

scholarly journals Social distance regulation for control of COVID-19 may foster the global obesity pandemic: Social distancing increases the desire for food

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yevvon Yi-Chi Chang ◽  
Wen-Hsiung Wu ◽  
Wen-Bin Chiou
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
Laboratory Experiment ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Weight Control ◽  
Social Connection ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Human Motivation ◽  
Distance Regulation ◽  
And Control

Abstract Social distance regulations have been suggested as one of the best ways to control and prevent the spread of coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19). Social connection and food are intertwined because both have played critical evolutionary roles in human survival. We tested whether the substitutability hypothesis in human motivation applies here in that cues signaling scarcity in one domain (e.g., social connection) might enhance the desire to acquire resources in another domain (e.g., food). In a laboratory experiment (N = 118), we found that, compared with controls, participants primed with social distancing consumed more ice cream in a taste test and reported a greater likelihood that they would engage in binge eating if they were placed in home quarantine. We may be the first to provide experimental evidence that social distancing can enhance the desire for food. The link between social distancing and the desire for food is pertinent to understanding how strongly social distance regulations may influence weight gain. Our findings have far-reaching implications for weight control under social distance regulations for prevention and control of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Vietnam’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic ‘such as War’: Extreme but Sensible

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
AISDL
Keyword(s):  
Social Trust ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
National Level ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Response Process ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Simple Logic ◽  
Scientific Journalism ◽  
And Control ◽  
Full Consensus

This study aims to explore what actions Vietnam initiated to prepare for the Covid-19 pandemic and the reason why they chose to do it, which seems to be considered successful action at the current level. Firstly, the author examines how Vietnam’s reaction could have been successful and analyzes a variety of features of their Covid-19 response process. At the early stage of this mysterious new pneumonia, Vietnam decided to act quickly in the ways which seems to be quite extreme at that time. With regard to Vietnam government’s action, the author illustrates the detailed process of their response and identifies how they quickly initiated such drastic action such a war with a full consensus from a majority of Vietnamese citizens. In terms of Vietnam’s Covid-19 response, it is quite critical of social distancing and surveillance for Metaphors, Scientific journalism and Patriotism. Secondly, the author analyzes how Vietnam’s reaction that closed the border with other countries, has affected socially and economically, and how these influences are reflected in Vietnam's Covid-19 responses. The author argues that one reaction of Vietnam to Covid-19, which they put all travelers from South Korea’s Daegu under quarantine, has led to an increase in negative responses to Korean and Korean companies in Vietnam, and that the civilian solidarity of Vietnamese companies and the Korean community played an important role in resolving the problem. Furthermore, the blockade at the national level has dragged a national consensus, and it is not a simple logic to sympathize with the authoritarian tendencies of the Vietnamese government. The nation’s capacity based on the government’s leadership and social trust to prepare for Covid-19 issue is insufficient to be considered just as the authoritarian-leaning idea of ‘surveillance’ and ‘control’.

THE 2019 NOVEL PANDEMIC OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19): A STUDY OF EXISTING EVIDENCE IN THE INDIAN POPULATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-204
Author(s):  
Shrikant Verma ◽  
Mohammad Abbas ◽  
Sushma Verma ◽  
Syed Tasleem Raza ◽  
Farzana Mahdi
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Indian Population ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control ◽  
General Wellbeing ◽  
Different Parts

A novel spillover coronavirus (nCoV), with its epicenter in Wuhan, China's People's Republic, has emerged as an international public health emergency. This began as an outbreak in December 2019, and till November eighth, 2020, there have been 8.5 million affirmed instances of novel Covid disease2019 (COVID-19) in India, with 1,26,611 deaths, resulting in an overall case fatality rate of 1.48 percent. Coronavirus clinical signs are fundamentally the same as those of other respiratory infections. In different parts of the world, the quantity of research center affirmed cases and related passings are rising consistently. The COVID- 19 is an arising pandemic-responsible viral infection. Coronavirus has influenced huge parts of the total populace, which has prompted a global general wellbeing crisis, setting all health associations on high attentive. This review sums up the overall landmass, virology, pathogenesis, the study of disease transmission, clinical introduction, determination, treatment, and control of COVID-19 with the reference to India.

Communicable and Other Infectious Diseases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Frischhut
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
European Union ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ethical Perspective ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
And Control

This chapter discusses the most important features of EU law on infectious diseases. Communicable diseases not only cross borders, they also often require measures that cross different areas of policy because of different vectors for disease transmission. The relevant EU law cannot be attributed to one sectoral policy only, and thus various EU agencies participate in protecting public health. The key agency is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Other important agencies include the European Environment Agency; European Food Safety Authority; and the Consumers, Health, Agriculture and Food Executive Agency. However, while integration at the EU level has facilitated protection of the public's health, it also has created potential conflicts among the different objectives of the European Union. The internal market promotes the free movement of products, but public health measures can require restrictions of trade. Other conflicts can arise if protective public health measures conflict with individual human rights. The chapter then considers risk assessment and the different tools of risk management used in dealing with the challenges of infectious diseases. It also turns to the external and ethical perspective and the role the European Union takes in global health.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the General Population’s Self-Reported Hand Hygiene Behaviour and Compliance in a Cross-European Setting

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2402
Author(s):  
Aaron Lawson ◽  
Marie Vaganay-Miller ◽  
Robert Cameron
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Hygiene Practice ◽  
Hygiene Behaviour ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Travel Abroad ◽  
And Control

Every year, thousands of people from the UK travel to other countries for work and leisure. Europe, and particularly Spain, is one of the most popular travel destinations for people from the UK. However, it is known that travel to other countries can enhance the risk of communicable disease transmission from person to person, especially when a new one emerges. Adequate hand hygiene behaviour and compliance is widely accepted as being a simple, effective method in preventing the spread of communicable diseases that may be contracted during travel abroad. There is a well-established body of work investigating hand hygiene practice and compliance in community settings, but no recent studies have examined the hand hygiene practice and compliance of the general population when travelling abroad or in a cross-European context. The findings of this study indicated that most UK members of the general population when travelling abroad have a good level of understanding of the importance of adequate hand hygiene practice and compliance and its role regarding communicable disease prevention and control. As such, self-reported levels of compliance were high. Similar findings were made for Spanish members of the general population. However, while self-reported perceptions of adequacy of hand hygiene performance were relatively high, particularly among UK respondents, this was not supported by responses specifically focused on hand hygiene behaviour. However, differences in self-reported adequacy regarding the importance of handwashing versus hand drying, the number of steps that should be followed and the length of time that should be spent washing and drying hands were found for each group. This suggests that self-reported compliance may reflect intention to practice hand hygiene rather than true compliance. It also suggests that there are gaps in knowledge regarding the adequate method of hand hygiene among the cohort as a whole, and indeed these differences may account be a factor in for the high transmission rates of communicable disease when travelling abroad.

scholarly journals Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

scholarly journals The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Gutin ◽  
Tomohiro Hirano ◽  
Sung-Ha Hwang ◽  
Philip R. Neary ◽  
Alexis Akira Toda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Simulation Results

AbstractHow does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

scholarly journals Examining the interplay between face mask usage, asymptomatic transmission, and social distancing on the spread of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Catching ◽  
Sara Capponi ◽  
Ming Te Yeh ◽  
Simone Bianco ◽  
Raul Andino
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
High Virus

AbstractCOVID-19’s high virus transmission rates have caused a pandemic that is exacerbated by the high rates of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. These factors suggest that face masks and social distance could be paramount in containing the pandemic. We examined the efficacy of each measure and the combination of both measures using an agent-based model within a closed space that approximated real-life interactions. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face masks protection during inhaling and exhaling, our simulations demonstrate that a synergistic use of face masks and social distancing is the most effective intervention to curb the infection spread. To control the pandemic, our models suggest that high adherence to social distance is necessary to curb the spread of the disease, and that wearing face masks provides optimal protection even if only a small portion of the population comply with social distance. Finally, the face mask effectiveness in curbing the viral spread is not reduced if a large fraction of population is asymptomatic. Our findings have important implications for policies that dictate the reopening of social gatherings.

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