Changes in water demands under adaptation actions to climate change in an irrigation district

Climate change will affect the water balance of irrigated agriculture. Therefore, farmers and irrigation managers should consider adapting to new scenarios. Changes in water demands in a Mexican irrigation district were studied using an irrigation-scheduling model. The impact on water demands of two potential adaptation actions, adjusting planting season and using longer-season varieties (LV), was estimated and compared with a baseline scenario. Two cropping plans (wet and dry) for the last 15 water years were considered. Cumulative and daily irrigation demands were estimated for each agricultural season and each adaptation action. The reference period (1961–1990) and three future climate projections (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2098) under A1B scenario were used. Results indicated that without adaptation water demands will decrease as temperatures increase and season lengths will shorten. However, as farmers respond with adaptation actions to maintain actual yields, water demand can be higher than non-adaptation action. The impacts of climate change on water demands depend on the adopted adaptation actions and have a greater effect on peak and cumulative demands. The water demands increased by 2.4% when LV were used and 16.3% when this is combined with adjusting planting season. Thus, adaptation actions should be chosen carefully to minimize future agricultural risk.

Download Full-text

What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research ◽

10.5424/sjar/2017153-9899 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 15 (3) ◽

pp. e0115 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Pilar Martinez ◽

María Blanco ◽

Benjamin Van Doorslaer ◽

Fabien Ramos ◽

Andrej Ceglar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Agricultural Markets ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Market Uncertainty ◽

Agricultural Market ◽

Carbon Fertilization ◽

Fertilization Effects ◽

The Impact

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Download Full-text

Innovation Issues in Water, Agriculture and Food

Water ◽

10.3390/w11061230 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 1230 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Maria do Rosário Cameira ◽

Luís Santos Pereira

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Water Use ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Water Productivity ◽

Irrigation Scheduling ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Main Challenge ◽

Agriculture And Food ◽

The Impact

The main challenge faced by agriculture is to produce enough food for a continued increase in population, however in the context of ever-growing competition for water and land, climate change, droughts and anthropic water scarcity, and less-participatory water governance. Such a context implies innovative issues in agricultural water management and practices, at both the field and the system or the basin scales, mainly in irrigation to cope with water scarcity, environmental friendliness, and rural society welfare. Therefore, this special issue was set to present and discuss recent achievements in water, agriculture, and food nexus at different scales, thus to promote sustainable development of irrigated agriculture and to develop integrated approaches to water and food. Papers cover various domains including: (a) evapotranspiration and crop water use; (b) improving water management in irrigated agriculture, particularly irrigation scheduling; (c) adaptation of agricultural systems to enhance water use and water productivity to face water scarcity and climate change; (d) improving irrigation systems design and management adopting multi-criteria and risk approaches; (e) ensuring sustainable management for anthropic ecosystems favoring safe and high-quality food production, as well as the conservation of natural ecosystems; (f) assessing the impact of water scarcity and, mainly, droughts; (g) conservation of water quality resources, namely by preventing contamination with nitrates; (h) use of modern mapping technologies and remote sensing information; and (i) fostering a participative and inclusive governance of water for food security and population welfare.

Download Full-text

Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13010027 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 27

Author(s):

Hatem Mahmoud ◽

Ayman Ragab

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heat Stress ◽

Thermal Efficiency ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Building Blocks ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Urban Geometry ◽

Outdoor Spaces ◽

The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

Download Full-text

Soil Type Modifies the Impacts of Warming and Snow Exclusion on Carbon and Nutrient Losses

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1139295/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Stephanie M. Juice ◽

Paul G. Schaberg ◽

Alexandra M. Kosiba ◽

Carl E. Waite ◽

Gary J. Hawley ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Nutrient Cycling ◽

Soil Type ◽

Soil Characteristics ◽

Nutrient Loss ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Nutrient Losses ◽

N Losses ◽

Total N ◽

The Impact

Abstract The varied and wide-reaching impacts of climate change are occurring across heterogeneous landscapes. Despite the known importance of soils in mediating biogeochemical nutrient cycling, there is little experimental evidence of how soil characteristics may shape ecosystem response to climate change. Our objective was to clarify how soil characteristics modify the impact of climate changes on carbon and nutrient leaching losses in temperate forests. We therefore conducted a field-based mesocosm experiment with replicated warming and snow exclusion treatments on two soils in large (2.4 m diameter), in-field forest sapling mesocosms. We found that nutrient loss responses to warming and snow exclusion treatments frequently varied substantially by soil type. Indeed, in some cases, soil type nullified the impact of a climate treatment. For example, warming and snow exclusion increased nitrogen (N) losses on fine soils by up to four times versus controls, but these treatments had no impact on coarse soils. Generally, the coarse textured soil, with its lower soil-water holding capacity, had higher nutrient losses (e.g., 12-17 times more total N loss from coarse than fine soils), except in the case of phosphate, which had consistently higher losses (23-58%) from the finer textured soil. Furthermore, the mitigation of nutrient loss by increasing tree biomass varied by soil type and nutrient. Our results suggest that potentially large biogeochemical responses to climate change are strongly mediated by soil characteristics, providing further evidence of the need to consider soil properties in Earth system models for improving nutrient cycling and climate projections.

Download Full-text

Structural safety and design under climate change

IABSE Congress, New York, New York 2019: The Evolving Metropolis ◽

10.2749/newyork.2019.1129 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Pietro Croce ◽

Paolo Formichi ◽

Filippo Landi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Structural Reliability ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Structural Safety ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.

Download Full-text

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 2859-2883 ◽

Cited By ~ 61

Author(s):

M. I. Hejazi ◽

J. Edmonds ◽

L. Clarke ◽

P. Kyle ◽

E. Davies ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Carbon Tax ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Water Demands ◽

Global Water ◽

Mitigation Policies

Abstract. Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Download Full-text

Hydrological modelling and anthropogenic water use

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13186 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ponnambalam Rameshwaran ◽

Ali Rudd ◽

Vicky Bell ◽

Matt Brown ◽

Helen Davies ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Use ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Model Performance ◽

River Flows ◽

Discharge Data ◽

New Approach ◽

Water Demands ◽

The Impact ◽

Grid Based

Despite Britain&#8217;s often-rainy maritime climate, anthropogenic water demands have a significant impact on river flows, particularly during dry summers. In future years, projected population growth and climate change are likely to increase the demand for water and lead to greater pressures on available freshwater resources.Across England, abstraction (from groundwater, surface water or tidal sources) and discharge data along with &#8216;Hands off Flow&#8217; conditions are available for thousands of individual locations; each with a licence for use, an amount, an indication of when abstraction can take place, and the actual amount of water abstracted (generally less than the licence amount). Here we demonstrate how these data can be used in combination to incorporate anthropogenic artificial influences into a grid-based hydrological model. Model simulations of both high and low river flows are generally improved when abstractions and discharges are included, though for some catchments model performance decreases. The new approach provides a methodological baseline for further work investigating the impact of anthropogenic water use and projected climate change on future river flows.

Download Full-text

Relative impact of irrigation techniques and climate change on hydroclimatic regimes in the Mediterranean region

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2242 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sandra Pool ◽

Félix Francés ◽

Alberto Garcia-Prats ◽

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Carles Sanichs-Ibor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Drip Irrigation ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Control Period ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Flood Irrigation ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Impact

Irrigated agriculture is the major water consumer in the Mediterranean region. Improved irrigation techniques have been widely promoted to reduce water withdrawals and increase resilience to climate change impacts. In this study, we assess the impact of the ongoing transition from flood to drip irrigation on future hydroclimatic regimes in the agricultural areas of Valencia (Spain). The impact assessment is conducted for a control period (1971-2000), a near-term future (2020-2049) and a mid-term future (2045-2074) using a chain of models that includes five GCM-RCM combinations, two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two irrigation scenarios (flood and drip irrigation), and twelve parameterizations of the hydrological model Tetis. Results of this modelling chain suggest considerable uncertainties regarding the magnitude and sign of future hydroclimatic changes. Yet, climate change could lead to a statistically significant decrease in future groundwater recharge of up -6.6% in flood irrigation and -9.3% in drip irrigation. Projected changes in actual evapotranspiration are as well statistically significant, but in the order of +1% in flood irrigation and -2.1% in drip irrigation under the assumption of business as usual irrigation schedules. The projected changes and the related uncertainties will pose a challenging context for future water management. However, our findings further indicate that the effect of the choice of irrigation technique may have a greater impact on hydroclimate than climate change alone. Explicitly considering irrigation techniques in climate change impact assessment might therefore be a way towards better informed decision-making.This study has been supported by the IRRIWAM research project funded by the Coop Research Program of the ETH Zurich World Food System Center and the ETH Zurich Foundation, and by the ADAPTAMED (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00) research projects funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain including EU FEDER funds.

Download Full-text

Climate Perspectives in the Intra–Americas Seas

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11090959 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 959

Author(s):

Ana María Durán-Quesada ◽

Rogert Sorí ◽

Paulina Ordoñez ◽

Luis Gimeno

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Large Scale ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Current Knowledge ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

The Impact

The Intra–Americas Seas region is known for its relevance to air–sea interaction processes, the contrast between large water masses and a relatively small continental area, and the occurrence of extreme events. The differing weather systems and the influence of variability at different spatio–temporal scales is a characteristic feature of the region. The impact of hydro–meteorological extreme events has played a huge importance for regional livelihood, having a mostly negative impact on socioeconomics. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and droughts are often discussed in terms of their impact on economic activities and access to water. Furthermore, future climate projections suggest that warming scenarios are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events, which poses a major threat to vulnerable communities. In a region where the economy is largely dependent on agriculture and the population is exposed to the impact of extremes, understanding the climate system is key to informed policymaking and management plans. A wealth of knowledge has been published on regional weather and climate, with a majority of studies focusing on specific components of the system. This study aims to provide an integral overview of regional weather and climate suitable for a wider community. Following the presentation of the general features of the region, a large scale is introduced outlining the main structures that affect regional climate. The most relevant climate features are briefly described, focusing on sea surface temperature, low–level circulation, and rainfall patterns. The impact of climate variability at the intra–seasonal, inter–annual, decadal, and multi–decadal scales is discussed. Climate change is considered in the regional context, based on current knowledge for natural and anthropogenic climate change. The present challenges in regional weather and climate studies have also been included in the concluding sections of this review. The overarching aim of this work is to leverage information that may be transferred efficiently to support decision–making processes and provide a solid foundation on regional weather and climate for professionals from different backgrounds.

Download Full-text

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8120139 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 139

Author(s):

Manashi Paul ◽

Sijal Dangol ◽

Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽

Amy R. Sapkota ◽

Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Watershed ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

Download Full-text