Simulating Success or Failure: Another Look at Small-Population Dynamics

1997 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 683-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia W. Gaines ◽  
Warren M. Gaines
Keyword(s):  
Family Formation ◽  
Nuclear Family ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Mortality Statistics ◽  
Monte Carlo Techniques ◽  
Founding Population ◽  
Prehistoric Southwest ◽  
The Individual

Simulation can be an effective tool for investigating the demography of small, prehistoric Southwest Pueblo communities. The model presented here incorporates biological and physiological, cultural, and behavioral characteristics and tracks each individual as the simulation of a small population is carried forward through 70 years of annual iterations. Sensitivity analyses are performed for a suite of critical parameter values. Many of parameters and functions are probabilistic, and Monte Carlo techniques are used to obtain statistically significant results. Simulation results are collected on numerous variables that profile the individual and group characteristics such as mortality, immigration to emigration ratio, nuclear family formation, and distribution of population size and mix. Initial success is dependent on the attributes of the founding population and its gender mix. The long-term survival of a small population is extremely sensitive to the mortality schedule, attributes of the founding population, and marriage-residence rules. Small shifts in the age-specific mortality statistics dramatically affect the population growth and the frequency of site collapse. The consequences of inaccuracies in mortality statistics are highlighted.

Introduction

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Family Formation ◽  
Nuclear Family ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Technologies ◽  
Cultural Norms ◽  
Social Rules ◽  
The Core ◽  
Army Wives ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Gestational Surrogacy

Opening with a brief exploration of the television series “Army Wives,” the introduction relates the theme of surrogacy presented in the drama to the foundational topics of this book; namely, it illustrates the changing perception of surrogacy in American culture. Our understanding of reproduction has always been informed by social rules and expectations, and these norms influence how individuals go about imagining the possibilities for family formation. The contemporary technologies that separate conception, pregnancy, and parenthood seem to offer new ways to think about reproduction, and thus much more agency to the individual to create families that may flaunt cultural norms. Considering terms such as “cross-racial gestational surrogacy,” “traditional surrogacy,” “reproductive technologies” and more, the introduction establishes the core themes of the text, relating these terms and technologies to the traditional, nuclear family within the United States.

Bachelorhood and Sexuality in a Context of Female Shortage: Evidence from a Survey in Rural Anhui, China

2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 703-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabelle Attané ◽  
Zhang Qunlin ◽  
Li Shuzhuo ◽  
Yang Xueyan ◽  
Christophe Z. Guilmoto
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Context ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
Rural Society ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Rural County ◽  
Chinese Men ◽  
Married Men ◽  
Exploratory Survey ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Near Future

AbstractTraditionally, marriage is a near universality in China. However, in the coming decades, owing to the growing sex imbalance, millions of men will be unable to marry. As a consequence, bachelorhood is becoming a new demographic concern, particularly affecting men from the most disadvantaged socio-economic groups. In China's cultural context today, heterosexual marriage remains a prerequisite for family formation and, in rural society particularly, the legitimate setting for sexual activity. Under such circumstances, bachelorhood is likely to produce privations on various fronts, the consequences of which for both the individual and the community are still largely unknown. This article focuses on the opinions and sexual behaviour of bachelors, and highlights significant variations from those of married men. It is based on the findings of an exploratory survey conducted in 2008 in selected villages in a rural county in Anhui province, referred to here as JC county. The survey provides insights into the more general situation of rural men unable to marry in a context of female shortage, and indicates the conditions a growing number of Chinese men will face in the near future.

scholarly journals Association between Prior Calcium Channel Blocker use and Mortality in Septic Patients: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianfei Ding ◽  
Yuqing Cui ◽  
Yanhui Zhu ◽  
Huoyan Liang ◽  
Dong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Septic Shock ◽  
Cohort Studies ◽  
Calcium Channel ◽  
Calcium Channel Blocker ◽  
Channel Blocker ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Sepsis Management ◽  
Term Survival

Abstract Background: To comprehensively review the literature and synthesize evidence concerning the relationship between preadmission calcium channel blocker (CCB) use and mortality in patients with sepsis.Methods: The MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched from their inception to April 9, 2020. Cohort studies that related to prior CCB use in patients with sepsis were analysed. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. Two primary outcomes related to mortality, namely, 30-day mortality and 90-day mortality, were analysed; heterogeneity between studies was assessed using I2 and was considered moderate if I2 was equivalent to 50–75% and high if I2 ≥ 75%. Fixed and random-effects models were used to calculate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The quality of outcomes was evaluated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the results.Results: 552 potentially relevant studies were identified, and the full texts of 25 articles were reviewed. Ultimately, five cohort studies involving 280,982 patients were confirmed to have a low risk of bias and were included. Preadmission CCB use was associated with a significantly lower 30-day mortality in septic shock (OR, 0.61 [0.38-0.97]; P = 0.035; I2 = 62.4%), not in sepsis (OR, 0.83 [0.66-1.04]; P = 0.103; I2 = 95.4%). Moreover, prior CCB use could significantly reduce 30-day mortality in sepsis (OR, 0.90 [0.85-0.95]; P < 0.001; I2 = 31.9%). Conclusions: This meta-analysis suggests that preadmission CCB use is significantly associated with improving long-term prognosis of sepsis, and also short-term survival of septic shock patients. This finding may provide an attractive direction for sepsis management.

scholarly journals The roads more or less traveled - A sequence analysis of family formation and parenthood for a cohort of Danish women born in the 1970s

2017 ◽  
pp. 47-66
Author(s):  
Tinne Steffensen
Keyword(s):  
Sequence Analysis ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
Nuclear Family ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Age At First Birth ◽  
Assisted Reproduction Technologies ◽  
Ideal Family ◽  
First Child ◽  
Civil Status

Relatively low fertility and an increased age at first birth, along with the development of assisted reproduction technologies have increased attention to when and how many times Danish women give birth. While some argue that family formation has become increasingly plural and differentiated, others maintain that the nuclear family remains the ideal family for the majority of women. In this article, I investigate family formation trajectories for a random sample of 1,500 women born in 1973 and 1974. For this sample, I perform sequence analysis of longitudinal registry data on civil status, fertility, education and income through the ages 22 to 37. Focusing on timing, order and duration in the sequences studied, I identify seven distinct clusters (i.e. typologies) of family formations in Denmark. The majority (68 percent) of the women’s trajectories represent varieties of the nuclear family. For all clusters, my results confirm the event of the first child as a constituting factor of the nuclear family, which often precedes marriage. However, the identified clusters also show great variation when it comes to age at birth of first child, socio-economic status and overall turbulence in their trajectories.

scholarly journals Microstructural Dynamic Study of Grain Growth

1985 ◽  
Vol 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Anderson ◽  
G. S. Grest ◽  
D. J. Srolovitz
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Grain Growth ◽  
Materials Science ◽  
Primary Recrystallization ◽  
Lattice Points ◽  
Microstructural Development ◽  
Continuous Systems ◽  
Monte Carlo Techniques ◽  
Topological Features ◽  
The Individual

The complete prediction of microstructural development in polycrystalline solids as a function of time and temperature is a major objective in materials science, but has not yet been possible primarily due to the complexity of the grain interactions. The evolution of the polycrystalline structure depends upon the precise specification of the coordinates of the grain boundary network, the crystallographic orientations of the grains, and the postulated microscopic mechanisms by which elements of the boundaries are assumed to move. Therefore, a general analytical solution to this multivariate problem has not yet been developed. Recently, we have been able to successfully incorporate these aspects of the grain interactions, and have developed a computer model which predicts the main features of the microstructure from first principles [1,2]., The polycrystal is mapped onto a discrete lattice by dividing the material into small area (2d) or volume (3d) elements, and placing the centers of these elements on lattice points. Interactions and dynamics are then defined for the individual elements which are analagous to those postulated in continuous systems. This discrete model preserves the topological features of real materials, and can be studied by computer simulation using Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper we report the application of the Monte Carlo method to the metallurgical phenomenon of grain growth with isothermal annealing. Extension of the model to treat primary recrystallization is presented elsewhere [3,4].

MODERN MARKETING AS A TOOL EFFICIENT ACTIVITIES OF THE ENTERPRISE

2021 ◽  
Vol 298 (5 Part 1) ◽  
pp. 99-103
Author(s):  
VIKTORIIA BONDARENKO ◽  
KULAKOVA SVITLANA ◽  
KARINA KLYMENKO ◽  
YAROSLAV VERPETA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Customer Service ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Enterprise Management ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Internet Technologies ◽  
Effective Operation ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Individual

The article presents the substantiation of modern marketing as one of the tools for increasing the effective operation of an enterprise in the new conditions of the economic environment. The authors argue that the use of marketing in the activities of enterprises is the key to the success of business entities, since it allows one to identify and control those factors that determine the conditions for long-term survival and development in the market. Increased competition between business entities in the Ukrainian market has increased the interest of scientists in approaches that ensure the effective functioning of business structures in the new economic environment. Various approaches to the definition of the term “marketing” are considered. The study concluded that the concept of “marketing” is not new in the economic literature of foreign countries. But despite this, there is no specific definition of this concept. In economic culture, this term is interpreted in the form of two basic concepts. Firstly, this is an activity aimed at the development and promotion of products from the very beginning of their production to the final result. Secondly, the concept of “marketing” can be regarded as a complex procedure for the organization and management of an enterprise, aimed at the production of goods and services that are in demand. The content of marketing in the enterprise management system has been investigated. The relationship between marketing and the effective operation of an enterprise has been analyzed. Today, the success of a business is determined by such circumstances as: the futility of covering costs by rising prices presupposes the enterprise’s search for ways to reduce its own costs to ensure its compliance with consumer expectations; insufficient fulfillment of the condition of problem-free customer service, who now value the impeccable and immediate satisfaction of their needs; formation of expectations of additional services among clients; the impossibility of achieving success due to limitations in the process of improving the functional characteristics of products. Products and services created with disregard for the individual characteristics of the consumer are now uncompetitive, and the consumers themselves want to participate in creating value. The essence of the marketing concept of enterprise management is investigated and the factors leading to its change, including under the influence of the development of information and Internet technologies, are determined. In particular, attention is focused on the fact that one of the characteristic trends of modern marketing in the XXI century. is the strengthening of the influence of information and Internet technologies on its development. In general, progressive technologization and informatization of economic and everyday life make significant changes in modern marketing, significantly expanding its capabilities, changing the functionality and set of tools necessary to achieve the goals and objectives of companies.

SOME PROBLEMS OF THE SOCIOLOGY OF THE FAMILY OF THE MODERN SOCIETY

2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 28-33
Author(s):  
Daurenbek Kusainov ◽  
◽  
Ainur Sadyrova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Protection ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Social Institution ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Individual Subject ◽  
The Family ◽  
Sociology Of The Family ◽  
The Individual

Marriage and the family are important institutions of human society. As we know, they include different private institutions: the institute of kinship, the institute of motherhood and fatherhood, the institute of property, the institute of social protection of childhood and guardianship, and others. The process of family formation is the process of assimilation of social norms, roles and standards that regulate courtship, the choice of a marriage partner, family stabilization, sexual behavior, relations with the parents of spouses.The sociology of the family in a narrow sense, as part of general sociology, as a theory of the “middle level”; considers a special sphere of life and culture of families. The sociology of the family deals with a group, and not with an individual subject of life activity. A group of people connected by family and kinship relations forms that part of the social reality that is studied by the sociology of the family, where the family lifestyle is at the forefront. The sociology of the family considers the individual as a member of the family, integral part of the society. The sociology of the family correlates with the sociology of the individual; it studies personality, first of all, through the prism of socio-cultural intra-family ties, family identity of the individual. In any societythe family has a dual character. On the one hand, it is a social institution, on the other-a small group that has its own laws of functioning and development.

Assessing the Potential Extent of Carsharing

2005 ◽  
Vol 1927 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas D. Schuster ◽  
John Byrne ◽  
James Corbett ◽  
Yda Schreuder
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Interest Policy ◽  
Sound Policy ◽  
The Individual

Members of carsharing organizations reduce both the number of vehicles owned and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Given these benefits at the individual level, carsharing may interest policy makers as another tool to address the negative environmental, economic, and social consequences of automobile dependence. However, the aggregate effects of carsharing must be estimated before sound policy decisions can be made. This paper describes a Monte Carlo simulation of the economic decision to own or share a vehicle on the basis of major cost components and past vehicle use. The simulation estimates the percentage of vehicles that would be cheaper to share than own. In Baltimore, Maryland, this result ranged from 4.2% under a traditional neighborhood carsharing model to 14.8% in a commuter-based carsharing model. Sensitivity analyses identified travel time and VMT as the most important economic factors, which likely incorporate other factors such as transit access and environmental attitudes. Because travel behavior, not ownership cost, drives the economic carsharing decision, the model hypothesizes that there will be increasing marginal societal benefits from policies that promote carsharing. The model can be applied to any geographic area and can be used to assess carsharing impacts of various policies that change the economics of owning or driving an auto. These results indicate that carsharing can become prevalent enough to be considered an important policy tool.

scholarly journals GP.01 Childhood obesity and multiple sclerosis susceptibility: a Mendelian randomization study

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (s1) ◽  
pp. S6 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Harroud ◽  
RE Mitchell ◽  
JA Morris ◽  
V Forgetta ◽  
SJ Sawcer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Childhood Obesity ◽  
Genome Wide Association Study ◽  
Mendelian Randomization ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Genetic Associations ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
A Genome ◽  
The Individual

Background: Observational studies have reported an association between childhood obesity and a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the difficulties to fully account for confounding and long recall periods make causal inference from these studies challenging. The objective of this study was to assess the contribution of childhood obesity to the development of MS through Mendelian randomization, which uses genetic associations to minimize the risk of confounding. Methods: We selected 23 independent genetic variants strongly associated with childhood body mass index (BMI) in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) which included 47,541 children. The corresponding effects of these variants on risk of MS were obtained from a GWAS of 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. Standard two-sample Mendelian randomization methods were performed, with additional sensitivity analyses to assess the likelihood of bias from genetic pleiotropy. Results: The inverse-variance weighted MR analysis revealed that one standard deviation increase in childhood BMI increased odds of MS by 26% (odds ratio=1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.45, p=0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity across the individual estimates. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main findings and provided no evidence of pleiotropy. Conclusions: This study provides genetic support of a role for increased childhood BMI in the development of MS.

Fifty Years of Family Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 654 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank F. Furstenberg
Keyword(s):  
Family Formation ◽  
Family System ◽  
Nuclear Family ◽  
Current System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Cultural Conditions ◽  
The Family ◽  
Gender Based ◽  
Developed Nations

The first section of the article discusses how and why we went from a relatively undifferentiated family system in the middle of the last century to the current system of diverse family forms. Even conceding that the family system was always less simple than it now appears in hindsight, there is little doubt that we began to depart from the dominant model of the nuclear-family household in the late 1960s. I explain how change is a result of adaptation by individuals and family members to changing economic, demographic, technological, and cultural conditions. The breakdown of the gender-based division of labor was the prime mover in my view. Part two of the article thinks about family complexity in the United States as largely a product of growing stratification. I show how family formation processes associated with low human capital produces complexity over time in family systems, a condition that may be amplified by growing levels of inequality. The last part of the article briefly examines complexity in a changing global context. I raise the question of how complexity varies among economically developed nations with different family formation practices and varying levels of inequality.

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