scholarly journals “Non-Catch-up Development” of Africa. Economist’s observations on forecasts, statistical manipulations, demographic romanticism and rejuvenation of elites

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
Leonid Fituni
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Order ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
African Youth ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
First Time

The article analyzes the long-run reliability and sustainability of the basic arguments referred to in assessing the upward development of Africa in the 21st century. The author argues that the ongoing changes in the global economy and the nature of the current transformation of the world order put in doubt that the “catch-up development” of the continent will advance exactly as foreseen by the basic African development strategies and as it is customary to present them in scientific literature. He supports his assessment by showing that some of the initial statistical estimates and projections of existing trends may have been based on a not completely correct statistical basis. Much attention is paid to a more realistic approach to the role of the “demographic dividend” in the future. The article systematizes and classifies the fundamental reasons why such miscalculations occurred and what needs to be taken into account in order to obtain to more estimates and more realistic scenarios of future development. The author insists that the “demographic dividend” does not inevitably arise by itself. For the favorable effects of the demographic dividend to occur, it is necessary to create high-quality, more productive jobs. Only in this case can the expected positive social and economic shifts follow, including the growth of the African middle class. For the first time, the economic problems of catch-up development are linked to the process of “rejuvenation of the elites” that is developing and being stimulated by a number of external players. For these purposes, external state and non-state actors may use sanctions and other restrictive measures. The author provides a classification and description of three types of behavioral patterns of African youth in politics. In African conditions understanding of those issues is crucial since young people constitute the majority of the population in a huge number of countries on the continent.

The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
National Economies

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

scholarly journals Catch up growth and social capability in developing countries: A conceptual and measurement proposal

OASIS ◽  
2017 ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Martin Andersson ◽  
Andrés Palacio
Keyword(s):  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Capabilities Approach ◽  
Income Convergence ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Social Capability

While the income per capita in the developing world since the turn of the Millennium has grown faster than that of the developed world, the question whether there is an ongoing process of catching up between countries remains. The notion of income convergence has provided many insights into the sources for long-run growth but has largely neglected the role of social capabilities in economic development. By social capabilities we mean the qualification of the ‘theory of convergence’ which asserts that productivity growth rates  between countries tend to vary inversely with regard to productivity levels. The social capabilities approach holds that a country’s potential for rapid growth is strong when “it is technologically backward but socially advanced” (see Abramovitz, 1986:388). This means that the potential to catch up under globalization is strongest for countries in which social capabilities are developed to allow successful use of technologies and where institutional arrangements are conducive to economic progress. Yet there is no clear agreement in the literature on the main components of social capabilities or how to measure them. Our framework argues that the role of capabilities in catching up needs to understand them in terms of structural transformation, economic and social inclusion, state´s autonomy and accountability. Without progress in these dimensions within-country inequality may increase and might in turn lead to stagnating growth and slim prospects for global income convergence.

The important role of productivity in Australia's long-run competitive position in LNG

2013 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 451
Author(s):  
Brad McBean ◽  
Matt Guthridge
Keyword(s):  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Productivity Improvement ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Competitive Disadvantage ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Operating Constraints

With significant number of LNG projects on stream (or in various stages along the pre-feasibility to project completion continuum), world LNG markets will experience pricing pressure. This will push more customers into the spot market, doing only longer-term offtake deals where pricing is favourable to the buyer. While Australia is positioned favourably to import markets in Asia, it will be at a competitive disadvantage given lower labour productivity (impacting both construction and maintenance activities), industrial conditions (impacting the option value of being able to ramp production up and down), higher asset costs, and a higher dollar. Long-run returns on existing and planned LNG projects will need to focus on continuously improving productivity, particularly upstream in exploration/delineation and development, faster than overseas competitors. This will require Australian companies to take a lead role in incubating and developing drilling, completion, and workover technologies. Australia lags behind other countries, but it can catch up and overtake them if it acts now. This extended abstract discusses Australia’s likely/potential long-run position in LNG to global sink markets; the operating constraints on LNG operations relative to overseas competitors; and, the implications for productivity improvement in LNG given potential medium-term improvements in extraction, processing, and shipping costs for LNG operations more broadly (considering relationships between commodity pricing and exchange rate). The options for Australian LNG operations in closing any productivity gap are also discussed.

The Role of Energy in Twentieth-Century Economic Growth

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malanima Paolo ◽  
Astrid Kander ◽  
Paul Warde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Shared Experience ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Third Industrial Revolution ◽  
Twentieth Century Europe

This chapter examines the role of energy in the economic growth of twentieth-century Europe. It considers the interrelationships of factors of production in order to identify the general features of a shared experience of growth, rather than to illuminate the local differences. The chapter first explains how development blocks contributed to GDP growth before discussing seven long-run propositions, including the strong growth of capital stock and catch-up with the leader of capital–GDP ratios; machinery increased more than GDP, labor, and other capital; and falling and converging energy intensity in the twentieth century. The chapter concludes with an overview of the link between energy intensity and economic structure. It argues that it was the third industrial revolution that was behind most of the increasing economic efficiency of energy consumption after the 1970s.

scholarly journals Forgotten Integration: The Failure and Lessons of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 176-195
Author(s):  
L. B. Vardomskiy
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Green Light ◽  
World Order ◽  
Economic Assistance ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Strategic Stability ◽  
The World

CMEA evolution is considered using the concept of a life cycle. Entry into individual stages of the life cycle depends on the compliance of integration institutions with internal and external development factors of the participating countries, the ratio of integration and national identity. The CMEA analysis allows us to assess the dynamics of modern integration projects important for Russia. The main reasons for the collapse of the CMEA were the overestimation of the role of planned instruments and the underestimation of the role of monetary instruments, collective import substitution (autarky) and technological weakness, primarily the USSR, as a leader in the integration process. To modernize their industry, the CMEA countries, under conditions of detente, increased imports of equipment from Western countries. The country’s budget deficit arising in connection with the growth of external debt was forced to solve by raising prices for consumer goods and services, which caused social discontent. Delays in market reforms exacerbated the situation. The “perestroika” that began in 1985 in the USSR, brought about drastic changes in domestic and foreign policy and gave a “green light” to market transformations in CEE countries. Despite the failure, CMEA made a significant contribution to the development of global regionalization processes. It was part of the bipolar world order and supported strategic stability in the world, contributed to the improvement of European integration institutions, especially in terms of planning the integration process and creating mechanisms for converging the levels of development and welfare of the participating countries. The CMEA experience has shown that in order to meet the growing complexity of the international economic, it is necessary to create the corresponding integration and national institutions of the participating countries. The central issue of the effectiveness of integration is the acquisition by the participating countries of such specialization, not only within the framework of the integration association, but also of the global economy as a whole, which will ensure their sustainable income. In the course of evolution, modern integration associations will change functions and institutions, the composition of participants, enter into larger alliances, but are unlikely to disappear from the world economy as CMEA.

Psychological Resilience Provides No Independent Protection From Suicidal Risk

Crisis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danica W. Y. Liu ◽  
A. Kate Fairweather-Schmidt ◽  
Richard Burns ◽  
Rachel M. Roberts ◽  
Kaarin J. Anstey
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Psychological Resilience ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Life Project ◽  
Resilience Factors ◽  
First Time

Abstract. Background: Little is known about the role of resilience in the likelihood of suicidal ideation (SI) over time. Aims: We examined the association between resilience and SI in a young-adult cohort over 4 years. Our objectives were to determine whether resilience was associated with SI at follow-up or, conversely, whether SI was associated with lowered resilience at follow-up. Method: Participants were selected from the Personality and Total Health (PATH) Through Life Project from Canberra and Queanbeyan, Australia, aged 28–32 years at the first time point and 32–36 at the second. Multinomial, linear, and binary regression analyses explored the association between resilience and SI over two time points. Models were adjusted for suicidality risk factors. Results: While unadjusted analyses identified associations between resilience and SI, these effects were fully explained by the inclusion of other suicidality risk factors. Conclusion: Despite strong cross-sectional associations, resilience and SI appear to be unrelated in a longitudinal context, once risk/resilience factors are controlled for. As independent indicators of psychological well-being, suicidality and resilience are essential if current status is to be captured. However, the addition of other factors (e.g., support, mastery) makes this association tenuous. Consequently, resilience per se may not be protective of SI.

The Problem of Identifying and Modeling the Relationship between Monetary Factor and Inflation in the Russian Economy

2008 ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
A. Porshakov ◽  
A. Ponomarenko
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Complex Approach ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Supply Side Factors

The role of monetary factor in generating inflationary processes in Russia has stimulated various debates in social and scientific circles for a relatively long time. The authors show that identification of the specificity of relationship between money and inflation requires a complex approach based on statistical modeling and involving a wide range of indicators relevant for the price changes in the economy. As a result a model of inflation for Russia implying the decomposition of inflation dynamics into demand-side and supply-side factors is suggested. The main conclusion drawn is that during the recent years the volume of inflationary pressures in the Russian economy has been determined by the deviation of money supply from money demand, rather than by money supply alone. At the same time, monetary factor has a long-run spread over time impact on inflation.

After Victory

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. John Ikenberry
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Politics ◽  
World Order ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Napoleonic Wars ◽  
Power Politics ◽  
The Cold War

The end of the Cold War was a “big bang” reminiscent of earlier moments after major wars, such as the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 and the end of the world wars in 1919 and 1945. But what do states that win wars do with their newfound power, and how do they use it to build order? This book examines postwar settlements in modern history, arguing that powerful countries do seek to build stable and cooperative relations, but the type of order that emerges hinges on their ability to make commitments and restrain power. The book explains that only with the spread of democracy in the twentieth century and the innovative use of international institutions—both linked to the emergence of the United States as a world power—has order been created that goes beyond balance of power politics to exhibit “constitutional” characteristics. Blending comparative politics with international relations, and history with theory, the book will be of interest to anyone concerned with the organization of world order, the role of institutions in world politics, and the lessons of past postwar settlements for today.

INTERACTION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF UKRAINE WITH INTERNATIONAL CREDIT AND FINANCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhii Voitko ◽  
◽  
Yuliia Borodinova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
The Future ◽  
International Credit

The article examines the interaction of the national economy of Ukraine with international credit and financial organizations, evaluates the positive and negative consequences and identifies possible areas for further cooperation. The role of international credit and financial organizations in the development of the global economy is analyzed. Today, international financial institutions have taken a leading place among institutions that provide financial support and contribute to the implementation of necessary reforms aimed at developing enterprises in various sectors of the economy and strengthening the country's financial sector as a whole. The importance of cooperation between Ukraine and international financial institutions for the development of the country's economy has been determined. The problems and directions of development of cooperation with leading credit and financial organizations in modern conditions are identified. Despite the presence of certain shortcomings, cooperation between Ukraine and international credit and financial organizations will continue in the future.

Synergetic Theory of Document in Evolution of Document Science

2018 ◽  
pp. 1060-1068
Author(s):  
Galina A. Dvoenosova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Role ◽  
Scientific Study ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Universal Theory ◽  
Social Self ◽  
Social Goal ◽  
The Social ◽  
Synergetic Theory ◽  
First Time

The article assesses synergetic theory of document as a new development in document science. In information society the social role of document grows, as information involves all members of society in the process of documentation. The transformation of document under the influence of modern information technologies increases its interest to representatives of different sciences. Interdisciplinary nature of document as an object of research leads to an ambiguous interpretation of its nature and social role. The article expresses and contends the author's views on this issue. In her opinion, social role of document is incidental to its being a main social tool regulating the life of civilized society. Thus, the study aims to create a scientific theory of document, explaining its nature and social role as a tool of social (goal-oriented) action and social self-organization. Substantiation of this idea is based on application of synergetics (i.e., universal theory of self-organization) to scientific study of document. In the synergetic paradigm, social and historical development is seen as the change of phases of chaos and order, and document is considered a main tool that regulates social relations. Unlike other theories of document, synergetic theory studies document not as a carrier and means of information transfer, but as a unique social phenomenon and universal social tool. For the first time, the study of document steps out of traditional frameworks of office, archive, and library. The document is placed on the scales with society as a global social system with its functional subsystems of politics, economy, culture, and personality. For the first time, the methods of social sciences and modern sociological theories are applied to scientific study of document. This methodology provided a basis for theoretical vindication of nature and social role of document as a tool of social (goal-oriented) action and social self-organization. The study frames a synergetic theory of document with methodological foundations and basic concepts, synergetic model of document, laws of development and effectiveness of document in the social continuum. At the present stage of development of science, it can be considered the highest form of theoretical knowledge of document and its scientific explanatory theory.

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