scholarly journals Impact of climat changes on agro-climatic indices of the vegetative period of main agricultural crops

2017 ◽  
pp. 61-70
Author(s):  
A. N. Polevoy ◽  
L. E. Bozhko ◽  
E. A. Barsukova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Regime ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Vegetative Period ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Thermal Indicators

Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 - 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 - 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisture-temperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted. Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be ex-pected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one - for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 - 2005.

scholarly journals Radiation-and-temperature resources of the steppe zone in Ukraine under the climate change conditions in the period of up to 2050

2017 ◽  
pp. 82-89
Author(s):  
А. N. Polevoy ◽  
O. V. Shabliy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Regime ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Air Temperatures

Indices of the radiation-and-temperature regime in the Steppe zone of Ukraine in the period of 1986 through 2005, as compared to the expected changes in these indices, calculated in accordance with the two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the period of up to 2050, are under consideration in the paper. RCP4.5 is a scenario of stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, while RCP8.5 is the one of very high greenhouse gas emissions. To characterize the radiation and thermal resources in the Steppe zone of Ukraine in the period of 1986 through 2005 (the basic period), and the change in the period of 2021 through 2050 calculations of average long-term values for the first group of environmental factors were performed: the duration of daytime, the total daily solar radiation, the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the accumulated PAR, the radiation balance of the vegetation cover, and the temperature regime. The following principal agro-climatic characteristics of the temperature regime were considered: dates of stable rise of the air temperature above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C in spring and autumn, duration of the period with air temperatures above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C, the accumulated positive air temperatures for the period with air temperatures above 0, 5, 10, 15 °C, the average air temperature in January and July, and the amplitude. It is pointed out that in the period of up to 2050, according to the calculations in both scenarios, increased indices of the radiation-and-temperature regime will be observed. The values of the radiation regime parameters will predominantly increase in late summer and early autumn. As a result of the inflow of increased accumulated solar radiation, the accumulated temperatures in the period with air temperatures above 5 °C will also rise. The expected increase in the accumulated temperatures will nevertheless not exceed 200 °C. A rise in the total temperature will contribute to better heat supply for the crops.

scholarly journals Influence of changes of climate on the productivity of pratal and steppe vegetation in the Forest-steppe area of Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
A. M. Polevoy ◽  
L. E. Bozhko ◽  
E. A. Barsukova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Natural Fertility ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
Steppe Vegetation ◽  
Yield Capacity

The influence of the climate change on the agro-climatic growth conditions, development and formation of productivity of meadow and steppe vegetation in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine for three periods has been studied: 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2041–2050. The calculations of the expected conditions have been performed according to the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The paper provides an assessment of the agro-climatic conditions for the formation of productivity of meadow and steppe vegetation in the current global warming and further climate change conditions until 2050. The assessment has been performed by comparing the average long-term agro-climatic indicators (1980–2010) of the productivity of wild phytocenoses with the same indicators for the future over decades. The calculations of both average long-term productivity of grasses and productivity of grasses in the conditions of climate change are executed according to four types of productivity: potential productivity which in case of optimum maintenance of plants with heat, moisture and mineral food is defined by solar radiation; meteorologically possible yield, which is provided by the temperature regime and the regime of humidification of the territory; really possible yield capacity, which is provided by the natural fertility of the soil; actual yield capacity in the natural conditions. Key words: meadow, steppe vegetation, productivity, humus balance, photosynthetic potential, agroecological categories of yields, climate change.

scholarly journals The influence of the natural-climate zone on the cattle productivity of Ukrainian Black-and-White Dairy breed

2020 ◽  
pp. 58-65
Author(s):  
S. Voitenko ◽  
O. Sydorenko
Keyword(s):  
Live Weight ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
High Productivity ◽  
Black And White ◽  
Reproductive Ability ◽  
Service Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Dairy Breed

It has been highlighted the data of researches as for the influence of natural and climatic zones of Ukraine on display of economically useful signs of the most numerous cattle in the country like Ukrainian black-spotted dairy breed. It was the grounds to assert the efficiency of resources use in those conditions to which they are most adapted and have genetically determined potential. It was found that cowsof lactation breeding herds in the Forest-steppe zone produced 7344 kg of milk, which is 242 kg and 1125 kg more than in the Steppe and Polissya regions due to significant variation of the characteristic within each climatic zone (Cv = 11.6– 27,5%). The Polissya zone, where the animals' yieldwere 5764 kg, while in other climates 6982–6992 kg, does not contribute to the high productivity of the first lactation cows. It is proved that the duration of the service period in cows of three natural and climatic zones of Ukraine varied from 106 days in Polissya to 126 days – Forest-steppe, but it did not agree with the output of calves per 100 cows, which in 81 Polissya amounted to 82 and Forest-steppe – 79. The heifers of the Steppe zone are inseminated with live weight of 391 kg at the age of 477 days, and the Forest-steppe and Polissya with slightly less 385 kg and 387 kg, respectively, at the age of 493 days and 517 days. There is no significant difference in live weight at the ages of 6, 12 and 18 months between heifers of different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, but the degree of development of the trait after 6 months was slightly better in cattle of the Steppe zone. A positive correlation was found between milk yield of first lactation cows of all natural climatic zones and their live weight at 6, 12 and 18 months of age, as well as negative calf age at first insemination (-0.587 ... -0.810) with significant correlation from the cattle of the Steppe zone. A high correlation coefficient (+0.703) was found in cows between live weight of heifers at first insemination and first lactation in the Polissya region. Key words: natural and climatic zones, Ukrainian Black-and-White Dairy breed, cows, yield, lactation, live weight, reproductive ability indicators, selection traits.

scholarly journals New cultivar of soybean Gorinskaya

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 36-43
Author(s):  
N. I. Kashevarov ◽  
R. I. Polyudina ◽  
D. A. Potapov
Keyword(s):  
Western Siberia ◽  
Female Parent ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Vegetative Period ◽  
State Register ◽  
Novosibirsk Region ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Variety Testing ◽  
Number Of Branches

The paper presents results of research into breeding of the new soybean cultivar Gorinskaya by the methods of hybridization and individual selection. Soybean varieties SibNIIK-315 (female parent) and Fiskebi V (male parent) were used as a starting material. The studies were carried out in the forest-steppe zone of the Western Siberia (Novosibirsk region). Soybean Gorinskaya belongs to the Manchu subspecies. The plants have a light brown (reddish) pubescence of the stem, leaves, beans. The growth pattern and the type of apex is intermediate, the number of branches is 1–3, the angle of branching is 20–30 degrees, the bush is compressed. The height to the first branch is 6–10 cm, the attachment height of the lower pod is 10–13 cm. The beans are distributed evenly throughout the plant. The length of the stem is 55–75 cm, the number of internodes on the stem is 12–15. The inflorescence is a small-flowered raceme of 3-5 flowers. The corolla is purple in color. The pods are slightly curved with a pointed tip; when ripe, they acquire a brown color. The seeds are elongated-oval, greenish-yellow in color, without pigmentation. The seed hilum is brown. The cultivar is the grain variety for use. The yield in the competitive variety testing reached 29.4 c / ha. The mass of seeds per plant is 10–12 g, the mass of 1000 seeds is 150–160 g. The number of seeds per pod is 2-3; the average number of pods per 1 productive node is 2-3. The protein content in seeds is 35-38, fat – 17-19%. Duration of the vegetative period is 100-105 days. The cultivar is medium resistant to diseases, cold, drought, and soil salinity. In 2018, the Gorinskaya soybean variety was included in the State Register of Breeding Achievements Approved for Use in the Russian Federation for the East Siberian region.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the production process of potato in a changing climate in the Eastern and Western forest-steppe

2017 ◽  
pp. 120-127
Author(s):  
S.M. Svyderska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Herbaceous Plant ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Perennial Herbaceous Plant ◽  
Photosynthetic Productivity ◽  
Growing Conditions ◽  
The Impact

An important element of climate change is to assess changes in agro-climatic growing conditions of crops and the impact of these changes on their performance. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector of  Ukraine's economy to fluctuations and climate change. Given the inertial nature of agriculture and the dependence of the efficiency on the weather, now need to make timely and adequate solutions to complex problems caused by climate change. Due to the expected increase in air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere food security Ukraine will largely depend on how effectively adapting agriculture to future climate change. This includes advance assessment of the impact of the expected climate change on agro-climatic conditions for growing crops. Potatoes - perennial, herbaceous, plant, but in nature is treated as an annual plant, so that the life cycle, beginning with germination and ending with the formation of bubbles and the formation of mature tubers, is one growing season. Potato is one of the most important crops grown and diversified use in almost all parts of our country. But the main focus areas of potatoes in Polesie and Forest-steppe. We consider the relative performance of the photosynthetic productivity of potato and agro-climatic conditions for growing potatoes for the period 1986 to 2005, and expected their changes calculated by the climate change scenarios A1B and A2 for the period 2011 to 2050 in Eastern and Western Forest-Steppe. We consider the agrometeorological and agro-climatic conditions in which there may be a maximum performance of potato.

Effects of prospective climate change on pasture productivity in the Italian Alps.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Casale ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Environmental Stability ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5

<p>We present here preliminary results in fulfilment of the project IPCC MOUPA (Interdisciplinary Project for assessing current and expected Climate Change impacts on MOUntain PAstures) project, funded by Fondazione Cariplo of Italy, aimed to i) evaluate potentially modified productivity of pasture lands under climate change scenarios, and subsequent on socio-economic, wildlife and biodiversity impacts, within the Italian Alps, and ii) propose management strategies for pasture and multi-functional use of mountain areas.</p><p>In high mountain areas pastures are a source of living for local communities, and further agriculture and livestock supply ecosystems services (ES). In the last century, increase of temperature nearby +1.5°C was observed in the Alpine region, to increase hereon, and future climate scenarios display potential reduction of water availability, with an increase in precipitation extremes, potentially impacting soil moisture, vegetation, and pasture dynamics (phenology/timing), deeply dependent upon precipitation, temperature, and snow cover.</p><p>We here defined some fragility indices (FIs), to sketch the effects of climate change on pastures in the Alps, with special focus on Valtellina valley, in the central Alps of Italy. FIs can be used to highlight pressures experienced by pastures, and thresholds for failure, and to develop policies to i) determine zones needing particular management, and adaptation, ii) monitor trends of global environmental stability, iii) evaluate the overall impact of climate change and anthropic influence, and iv) investigate the dynamics of pasture fragility. We chose indices of climate, productivity, and water usage. Some of these FIs can be evaluated starting from observations, but others have to be calculated using models of pasture growth, and water availability. For this reason, a pasture model Poli-Pasture has been set up to simulate the pasture growth, and to evaluate FIs in the target area.</p><p>To explore the broad range of variability under uncertain future climate, FIs are calculated for present conditions of pastures, and for future projected conditions using i) three climatic scenarios of AR5 of IPCC (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) as depicted by three Global Circulation Models GCMs (EC-Earth, Echam6.0, CCSM4), and ii) four climatic scenarios of the AR6 (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 7.0, RCP 8.5) depicted by three GCMs (EC-Earth3, Echam6.3, CESM2), and some preliminary conclusion are reported for future pasture dynamics, and management therein.</p>

scholarly journals Discharge of groundwater flow to Potter Cove on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 3227-3244
Author(s):  
Ulrike Falk ◽  
Adrián Silva-Busso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Freezing Point ◽  
South Shetland Islands ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
King George Island ◽  
Flow Discharge ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. There are only a small number of recent publications discussing glacial runoff in Antarctica, and even fewer of them deal with the groundwater flow discharge. This paper focuses on the groundwater flow aspects and is based on a detailed study performed on a small hydrological catchment, informally called Potter basin, located on King George Island (KGI; Isla 25 de Mayo), South Shetland Islands, at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. The basin is representative for the rugged coastline of the northern Antarctic Peninsula and is discussed as a case study for the possible future evolution of similar basins further to the south. A conceptual hydrogeological model has been defined using vertical electrical soundings (VESs), geological and hydrogeological surveying methods, geomorphological interpretation based on satellite imagery, permeability tests, piezometric level measurements, meteorological, geocryological and glaciological data sets. The transmissivities of the fluvial talik aquifer and suprapermafrost aquifer range from 162.0 to 2719.9×10-5 m2 s−1 and in basaltic fissured aquifers from 3.47 to 5.79×10-5 m2 s−1. The transmissivities found in the active layer of hummocky moraines amount to 75.23×10-5 m2 s−1 and to 163.0×10-5 m2 s−1 in the sea deposits, and in the fluvioglacial deposits, they were observed between 902.8 and 2662.0×10-5 m2 d−1. Finally, the groundwater flow discharge was assessed to 0.47 m3 s−1 (during the austral summer months of January and February), and the total groundwater storage was estimated to 560×103 m3. The Antarctic Peninsula region has experienced drastic climatological changes within the past five decades. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, a further warming of the polar regions can be expected as polar amplification of our changing climate. Although the basin in consideration is small and results are valid only during austral summers with surface air temperatures above the freezing point, it serves as model study that can be regarded as representative for the western coastline of the Antarctic Peninsula further south under expected future warming, with surface air temperatures periodically surpassing freezing point. This data can be used to adjust glacial mass balance assessments in the region and to improve the understanding of coastal sea water processes, and their effects on the marine biota, as a consequence of the global climate change.

scholarly journals Contemporary gully erosion trend in the northern part of the forest-steppe zone of the Russian Plain: a case study from the Republic of Tatarstan, European Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 381 ◽  
pp. 21-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidar Sharifullin ◽  
Artur Gafurov ◽  
Regina Medvedeva ◽  
Valentin Golosov ◽  
Aleksandr Dvinskih ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Gully Erosion ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Russian Plain ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
High Resolution Satellite Images ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This article presents results for gully head cut retreat rates (GHRR) in the Pre-Kama region (Republic of Tatarstan, Russia) based on monitoring (1984–1994 and 2015–2018) and the interpretation of high-resolution satellite images (2004–2014). The results suggested that the mean linear GHRR have reduced by about five times, from 1.6 m per year (1983–1994) to 0.4 m per year (2015–2018). The main reason for the significant decrease in gully erosion was the increase in winter-spring air temperatures, which resulted in a reduction in the depth of soil freezing and surface runoff. The impact of land use, as well as erosion control measures, which were implemented in the study area during the late 1980s and early 1990s, was found to be less important.

scholarly journals European grapevine moth in the Douro region: voltinism and climatic scenarios

OENO One ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-351
Author(s):  
Samuel Reis ◽  
Joana Martins ◽  
Fátima Gonçalves ◽  
Cristina Carlos ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Lobesia Botrana ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
European Grapevine Moth ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Grapevine Moth

The European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is considered to be the main pest in the vineyards of the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) due to the economic losses it can cause. Damage is caused by the larvae of this pest feeding on grape clusters, rendering them susceptible to Botrytis cinerea in mid-season and leading to the development of primary and secondary rot at harvest. Understanding this pest´s behaviour in the region under future climate scenarios is an increasing challenge. Hence, the present study aims to assess the potential effects of two likely climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on Lobesia botrana phenology, particularly at the beginning and at the peak of the three Lobesia botrana flights. Our findings show that the phenological events generally occur earlier in all locations and mostly during the long-term period of 2021–2080, being 7 to 12 days in advance in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 15 to 24 days in advance in RCP8.5, when compared to current values (2000–2019) and regardless of the flight number. These results suggest that a fourth complete flight is likely in the future, and that Lobesia botrana will become a tetravoltine species in the region. The flight (male catches) and infestation of Lobesia botrana over periods with daily temperatures above its upper limit of development (> 33 °C) were also analysed during the period 2000–2019 in the targeted sites. The upward trend in the number of days with maximum temperature above 33 °C tended to be accompanied by a decrease in the total number of male catches during the second and third flights, as well as a decrease in the percentage of attacked bunches by the second and third generations. Overall, climate change is expected to influence the phenology of this pest in the DDR.

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