scholarly journals The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3691
Author(s):  
Iztok Podbregar ◽  
Goran Šimić ◽  
Mirjana Radovanović ◽  
Sanja Filipović ◽  
Damjan Maletič ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Methodological Errors ◽  
Individual Variables ◽  
Weighting Coefficients ◽  
Development And Management ◽  
High Degree

The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.

scholarly journals Trends of International Energy Security Risk Index in European Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Chernyak ◽  
Ganna Kharlamova ◽  
Andriy Stavytskyy
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
The Uk

Abstract The paper deals with the analysis and forecasting of energy security risk index for eleven European countries (the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, and Ukraine for the period 1992-2016). Nowadays, energy security plays an important role in guaranteeing the national, political and economic security of the country. A literature review of different approaches to defining energy security gave the possibility to consider the regression model of energy security risk index assessment, which takes into account the levels of economic, technical and technological, ecological, social and resource components. This step was proceeded with clusterization of the analysed countries in three groups according to Energy Security Risk Index. Based on this approach resource-mining countries (Denmark, Germany, Norway and the UK) were grouped in Cluster I, while Ukraine occupied the last Cluster III. The next division in five clusters supported the indicated allocation. Finally, we calculated the forecasts of energy security risk index based on data of 1992-2014. It allowed realizing the perspectives of energy market for the nearest future, particularly for Ukraine, which needs development of a new strategy of energy security

Developing an Energy Risk Assessment System

2010 ◽  
pp. 337-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Flamos ◽  
Christos V. Roupas ◽  
John Psarras
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Security Of Supply ◽  
Robust Decision Making ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Security Risk Assessment

Throughout the last two decades many attempts took place in order policy makers and researchers to be able to measure the energy security of supply of a particular country, region and corridor. This chapter is providing an overview presentation of the Energy Security Risk Assessment System (E.S.R.A.S.) which comprises the Module of Robust Decision Making (RDM) and the Module of Energy Security Indices Calculation (ESIC). Module 1 & 2 are briefly presented throughout section 2 and the application of Module 2 in nine case study countries is discussed at section 3. Finally, in the last section are the conclusions, which summarize the main points, arisen in this chapter.

scholarly journals Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5934
Author(s):  
Paweł Ziemba ◽  
Aneta Becker ◽  
Jarosław Becker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Security Index

Energy security is of key importance for states and international organizations. An important issue in energy security is the assessment of current and future energy security methods. While the assessment of the current methods is relatively easy, since it is based on recent information, the assessment of the future methods is burdened with uncertainty and is therefore much more difficult. Therefore, the aim of the article is to develop a new approach for assessing current and future energy security issues based on a complex security index, supported by the computationally transparent fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The use of the fuzzy MCDA methods allows one to capture the uncertainty of assessments and forecasts, and the forecasts themselves were based on the Holt’s method; the international energy security risk index (IESRI) was used as the source of the data to generate the forecasts. The research compared two data sources for forecasts (IESRI categories and metrics) and two methods of forecast fuzzification. As a result, the forecasted assessments and rankings of energy security for the 2020–2030 period were obtained. On the basis of these forecasts, general trends shaping energy security were also indicated.

scholarly journals International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iztok Podbregar ◽  
Goran Šimić ◽  
Mirjana Radovanović ◽  
Sanja Filipović ◽  
Polona Šprajc
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
First Year ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oblique Rotation ◽  
Index Analysis ◽  
Coal Reserves

The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).

Perancangan aplikasi multi criteria decision making dalam penerimaan beasiswa kepada dosen studi lanjut STMIK Balikpapan menggunakan metode SAW

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Muslimin B ◽  
Sumardi Sumardi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Teaching Assistants ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Scholarship Recipients ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Application Decision ◽  
High Degree ◽  
New Student

 Interests and number of STMIK Balikpapan new student enrollments are increasing every year. The balance of the ratio of lecturers to students is one of the most important components in improving the quality and teaching and learning process of a university. Avoiding shortages in the number of lecturers can be realized by providing scholarship programs to alumni and teaching assistants. This study aims to build a multi criteria decision making application that can assist the Head of HRD in the process of receiving scholarships to advanced and effective study lecturers. The multi criteria decision making application developed in this study uses the SAW method. The implementation of the SAW method includes the process of evaluating the weighting of criteria, evaluating alternative weights, the matrix process, the results of decision making preferences, resulting in the weighting and ranking of each alternative candidate for the scholarship recipient. The results of the evaluation of multi-criteria application decision making in the study are expected to produce modeling with a high degree of accuracy. The results of the analysis carried out can provide alternative recommendations for prospective scholarship recipients to advanced study lecturers in STMIK Balikpapan.

scholarly journals Influence of the Share of Renewable Energy Sources on the Level of Energy Security in EECCA Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Trifonov ◽  
Dmitry Trukhan ◽  
Yury Koshlich ◽  
Valeriy Prasolov ◽  
Beata Ślusarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Structural Content ◽  
High Degree

In this study we aimed to determine the extent to which changes in the share of renewable energy sources, their structural complex, and the level of energy security in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) countries in the medium- and long-term are interconnected. The study was performed through modeling and determination of the structural characteristics of energy security in the countries. The methodology of the approach to modeling was based on solving the problem of nonlinear optimization by selecting a certain scenario. For the study, the data of EECCA countries were used. The ability of EECCA countries to benefit from long-term indirect and induced advantages of the transformation period depends on the extent to which their domestic supply chains facilitate the deployment of energy transformation and induced economic activity. This study provides an opportunity to assess the degree of influence of renewable energy sources on the level of energy security of countries in the context of energy resource diversification. The high degree of influence of renewable energy sources on energy security in the EECCA countries has been proven in the implementation of the developed scenarios for its increase. Energy security is growing. At the same time, its level depends not only on an increase in the share of renewable sources but also on the structure of energy resources complex of countries, and the development of various renewable energy sources. Therefore, today the EECCA countries are forced not only to increase the share of renewable energy sources but also to attach strategic importance to the structural content of their energy complex.

scholarly journals Consciousness, decision making, and volition: freedom beyond chance and necessity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Liljenström
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Free Will ◽  
Brain Activity ◽  
Brain Structures ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Neural Information ◽  
Neural Information Processing ◽  
Stochastic Population Model ◽  
The Brain

AbstractWhat is the role of consciousness in volition and decision-making? Are our actions fully determined by brain activity preceding our decisions to act, or can consciousness instead affect the brain activity leading to action? This has been much debated in philosophy, but also in science since the famous experiments by Libet in the 1980s, where the current most common interpretation is that conscious free will is an illusion. It seems that the brain knows, up to several seconds in advance what “you” decide to do. These studies have, however, been criticized, and alternative interpretations of the experiments can be given, some of which are discussed in this paper. In an attempt to elucidate the processes involved in decision-making (DM), as an essential part of volition, we have developed a computational model of relevant brain structures and their neurodynamics. While DM is a complex process, we have particularly focused on the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) for its emotional, and the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) for its cognitive aspects. In this paper, we present a stochastic population model representing the neural information processing of DM. Simulation results seem to confirm the notion that if decisions have to be made fast, emotional processes and aspects dominate, while rational processes are more time consuming and may result in a delayed decision. Finally, some limitations of current science and computational modeling will be discussed, hinting at a future development of science, where consciousness and free will may add to chance and necessity as explanation for what happens in the world.

scholarly journals The Police Use of Background Information Related to Alleged Victims in Mock Evaluations of Child Sexual Abuse

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 414-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Tadei ◽  
Pekka Santtila ◽  
Jan Antfolk
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sexual Abuse ◽  
Child Sexual Abuse ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Individual Variables ◽  
Subject Performance ◽  
Decision Making Support

Abstract When statistically related to child sexual abuse (CSA), background information can assist decision-making in investigations of CSA allegations. Here, we studied the use of such background information among Finnish police officers. We analyzed their ability to identify and interpret CSA-related and CSA-unrelated background information both when placed in mock scenarios and when presented as separate, individual variables. We also measured the ability to correctly estimate the probability of CSA based on such background information. In the context of mock scenarios, officers were better in discarding CSA-unrelated variables than in identifying CSA-related ones. Within-subject performance across different scenarios was, however, not consistent. When information was presented as separate variables, officers tended to incorrectly consider many CSA-unrelated variables as CSA-related. Officers performed better in recognizing whether actual CSA-related variables increase or decrease the probability of CSA. Finally, officers were inaccurate in identifying variables that are CSA-related only for boys or only for girls. When asked to estimate the CSA probability of mock scenarios, participants were accurate only in assessing low-probability cases, and this was not associated with the ability to identify CSA-related and CSA-unrelated variables. We conclude that police officers would benefit from more training in using background information and from using available decision-making support tools in the context of investigating CSA allegations.

scholarly journals Partisan Ambivalence and Electoral Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Stephen C. Craig ◽  
Paulina Cossette ◽  
Michael Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Campaign Ads ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Negative Feelings ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
High Degree

American politics today is driven largely by deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans. That said, there are many people who view the opposition in an overwhelmingly negative light – but who simultaneously possess a mix of positive and negative feelings toward their own party. This paper is a response to prior research (e.g., Lavine, Johnson, and Steenbergen 2012) indicating that such ambivalence increases the probability that voters will engage in "deliberative" (or "effortful") rather than "heuristic" thinking when responding to the choices presented to them in political campaigns. We extend the logic of this argument to a hypothetical race for Congress, using data from a survey experiment to determine whether a high degree of ambivalence toward one's party makes voters more responsive to a negative attack against the candidate of that party. In fact, we find little evidence that partisan ambivalence promotes a deliberative response to negative campaign ads.

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