scholarly journals International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iztok Podbregar ◽  
Goran Šimić ◽  
Mirjana Radovanović ◽  
Sanja Filipović ◽  
Polona Šprajc
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
First Year ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oblique Rotation ◽  
Index Analysis ◽  
Coal Reserves

The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).

scholarly journals The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3691
Author(s):  
Iztok Podbregar ◽  
Goran Šimić ◽  
Mirjana Radovanović ◽  
Sanja Filipović ◽  
Damjan Maletič ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Methodological Errors ◽  
Individual Variables ◽  
Weighting Coefficients ◽  
Development And Management ◽  
High Degree

The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.

scholarly journals Trends of International Energy Security Risk Index in European Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Chernyak ◽  
Ganna Kharlamova ◽  
Andriy Stavytskyy
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
The Uk

Abstract The paper deals with the analysis and forecasting of energy security risk index for eleven European countries (the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, and Ukraine for the period 1992-2016). Nowadays, energy security plays an important role in guaranteeing the national, political and economic security of the country. A literature review of different approaches to defining energy security gave the possibility to consider the regression model of energy security risk index assessment, which takes into account the levels of economic, technical and technological, ecological, social and resource components. This step was proceeded with clusterization of the analysed countries in three groups according to Energy Security Risk Index. Based on this approach resource-mining countries (Denmark, Germany, Norway and the UK) were grouped in Cluster I, while Ukraine occupied the last Cluster III. The next division in five clusters supported the indicated allocation. Finally, we calculated the forecasts of energy security risk index based on data of 1992-2014. It allowed realizing the perspectives of energy market for the nearest future, particularly for Ukraine, which needs development of a new strategy of energy security

scholarly journals Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5934
Author(s):  
Paweł Ziemba ◽  
Aneta Becker ◽  
Jarosław Becker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Security Index

Energy security is of key importance for states and international organizations. An important issue in energy security is the assessment of current and future energy security methods. While the assessment of the current methods is relatively easy, since it is based on recent information, the assessment of the future methods is burdened with uncertainty and is therefore much more difficult. Therefore, the aim of the article is to develop a new approach for assessing current and future energy security issues based on a complex security index, supported by the computationally transparent fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The use of the fuzzy MCDA methods allows one to capture the uncertainty of assessments and forecasts, and the forecasts themselves were based on the Holt’s method; the international energy security risk index (IESRI) was used as the source of the data to generate the forecasts. The research compared two data sources for forecasts (IESRI categories and metrics) and two methods of forecast fuzzification. As a result, the forecasted assessments and rankings of energy security for the 2020–2030 period were obtained. On the basis of these forecasts, general trends shaping energy security were also indicated.

Structuring Assessments of Psychopathology

2006 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willem K.B. Hofstee ◽  
Dick P.H. Barelds ◽  
Jos M.F. Ten Berge
Keyword(s):  
Principal Components ◽  
Personality Assessment ◽  
Clinical Sample ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Normal Sample ◽  
Normative Sample ◽  
Assessment Data ◽  
Obsessive Compulsive ◽  
Oblique Rotation ◽  
Two Samples

Hofstee and Ten Berge (2004a) have proposed a new look at personality assessment data, based on a bipolar proportional (-1, .. . 0, .. . +1) scale, a corresponding coefficient of raw-scores likeness L = ΢XY/N, and raw-scores principal component analysis. In a normal sample, the approach resulted in a structure dominated by a first principal component, according to which most people are faintly to mildly socially desirable. We hypothesized that a more differentiated structure would arise in a clinical sample. We analyzed the scores of 775 psychiatric clients on the 132 items of the Dutch Personality Questionnaire (NPV). In comparison to a normative sample (N = 3140), the eigenvalue for the first principal component appeared to be 1.7 times as small, indicating that such clients have less personality (social desirability) in common. Still, the match between the structures in the two samples was excellent after oblique rotation of the loadings. We applied the abridged m-dimensional circumplex design, by which persons are typed by their two highest scores on the principal components, to the scores on the first four principal components. We identified five types: Indignant (1-), Resilient (1-2+), Nervous (1-2-), Obsessive-Compulsive (1-3-), and Introverted (1-4-), covering 40% of the psychiatric sample. Some 26% of the individuals had negligible scores on all type vectors. We discuss the potential and the limitations of our approach in a clinical context.

scholarly journals The relationship between empathy and altruistic motivations in nursing studies: a multi-method study

BMC Nursing ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Messineo ◽  
Luciano Seta ◽  
Mario Allegra
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Education ◽  
Nursing Students ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Motivational Factors ◽  
Care Process ◽  
First Year ◽  
Young Males ◽  
Young Females

Abstract Background The efficient management of relational competences in healthcare professionals is crucial to ensuring that a patient’s treatment and care process is conducted positively. Empathy is a major component of the relational skills expected of health professionals. Knowledge of undergraduate healthcare students’ empathic abilities is important for educators in designing specific and efficient educational programmes aimed at supporting or enhancing such competences. In this study, we measured first-year undergraduate nursing students’ attitudes towards professional empathy in clinical encounters. The students’ motivations for entering nursing education were also evaluated. This study takes a multi-method approach based on the use of qualitative and quantitative tools to examine the association between students’ positive attitudes towards the value of empathy in health professionals and their prosocial and altruistic motivations in choosing to engage in nursing studies. Methods A multi-method study was performed with 77 first-year nursing students. The Jefferson Scale of Empathy (JSE) – Health Professions Student Version was administered. Students’ motivations for choosing nursing studies were detected through an open question and thematically analysed. Using explorative factor analysis and principal component analysis, a dimensional reduction was conducted to identify subjects with prosocial and altruistic motivations. Finally, linear models were tested to examine specific associations between motivation and empathy. Results Seven distinct themes distinguishing internal and external motivational factors were identified through a thematic analysis of students’ answers regarding their decision to enter a nursing degree course. Female students gained higher scores on the empathy scale than male ones. When students’ age was considered, this difference was only observed for younger students, with young females’ total scores being higher than young males'. High empathy scores were positively associated with altruistic motivational factors. A negative correlation was found between external motivational factors and the scores of the Compassionate Care subscale of the JSE. Conclusions Knowing the level of nursing students’ empathy and their motivational factors for entering nursing studies is important for educators to implement training paths that enhance students’ relational attitudes and skills and promote the positive motivational aspects that are central to this profession.

Central retinal thickness fluctuations in patients treated with anti-VEGF for neovascular age related macular degeneration

2021 ◽  
pp. 112067212110378
Author(s):  
Francesco Ciucci ◽  
Giuseppina Ioele ◽  
Antonio Bardocci ◽  
Giorgio Lofoco ◽  
Barbara Antonelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Macular Degeneration ◽  
Retinal Thickness ◽  
Treatment Algorithm ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Age Related Macular Degeneration ◽  
Central Retinal Thickness ◽  
First Year ◽  
Anti Vegf ◽  
Age Related

Purpose: This is a retrospective, single-center, non randomized interventional real life study, investigating the correlation between variability of central retinal thickness (CRT) and functional outcomes during 2 years of anti-VEGF therapy in patients treated for neovascular age related macular degeneration (nAMD). Background: CRT fluctuations can depend on various factors such as the correct timing of injections, the therapeutic algorithm, and the number of injections (NI) performed; it is important to understand if CRT fluctuations are responsible for worse visual outcomes and consequently to identify the correct ways to avoid or reduce them. Methods: Forty-one patients were treated for nAMD with aflibercept: 0.5 mg intravitreal aflibercept was administered every 4 weeks during the first 3 months, then bimonthly over the first year, and after the first year adopting a PRN regimen. Standard deviation of CRT (CRT/SD), BCVA, and NI were recorded. Correlation studies were performed by Pearson’s test, Ancova, and Principal Component Analysis. Results: A negative correlation was found between CRT/SD and final BCVA. In patients who lost more than 15 letters, CRT/SD mean was significantly higher in comparison with patients who lost less than 15 letters. Patients with final BCVA >65 letters showed lower CRT/SD values compared to patients with final BCVA ⩽65 letters. Multivariate analysis confirmed that in patients with higher baseline BCVA, improvement of BCVA was correlated to NI, and lower values of CRT fluctuations were observed. Conclusions: CRT fluctuations, even after an appropriate NI given per year, significantly influence BCVA; a proactive treatment algorithm appears crucial when treating patients with nAMD.

scholarly journals Stability of Wheat Genotypes by AMMI and Yield Evaluated under Peninsular Zone of India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay Verma ◽  
G.P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Weighted Average ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Efficient Estimation ◽  
High Yield ◽  
First Year ◽  
Wheat Genotypes ◽  
Stability Measure ◽  
Linear Behaviour ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Selection Of

Background: Efficient estimation of main and interaction effects under multi environment trials had been carried out by AMMI. Studies with low proportion of the variance explained by first interaction principal component IPCA1 under AMMI analysis had been reported biased interpretation for the stability of the genotypes.Methods: Weighted Average of Absolute scores (WAASB), quantitative stability measure had been recommended for selection of productive genotypes with broad adaptation. The selection of promising genotypes had been assisted by use of superiority index (WAASBY) that considered simultaneous use of yield and stability by allowing variable weighting mechanism for yield and stability.Result: Wheat GW509 and HI1633 genotypes had been identified by stability measure WAASB for the first year. While Superiority index considered stability and high yield settled for HI1633 and Raj4083 genotypes. Analytic measures of adaptability PRVG and MHPRVG observed suitability of HI1633 and Raj 4083. SI expressed positive linear behaviour with yield, MHPRVG and PRVG measures. While stability measure WAASB maintained moderate negative correlation with yield, SI, MHPRVG and PRVG. Wheat genotypes HI1633, HI1641 and HI1646 identified by stability measure for the next year of study. Superiority index selected HI1641, HI1633 and MACS6752 genotypes. SI expressed direct linear relation with yield, MHPRVG and PRVG. Stability measure exhibited indirect relationships with SI, MHPRVG, PRVG and yield Wheat genotypes HI1633, Raj 4083 for first year and HI1641, MACS6752 for the second year of study.

scholarly journals Predictors of the challenges faced by beginning teachers: Pre-service teacher education competency and professional commitment

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ishak Kozikoglu ◽  
Nuray Senemoglu
Keyword(s):  
Teacher Education ◽  
Beginning Teachers ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Preservice Teacher Education ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Professional Commitment ◽  
First Year ◽  
Teachers Perceptions ◽  
Pre Service Teacher Education ◽  
Pre Service Teacher

The purpose of this study is to determine to what level beginning teachers' perceptions concerning the competency of pre-service teacher education and their professional commitment predict the challenges they face. This study was conducted with 942 beginning teachers working at İstanbul, Konya, Gaziantep and Van provinces in Turkey. The data were collected with the scale of challenges faced by beginning teachers, teachers' perceptions scale concerning the competency of preservice teacher education and teachers' professional commitment scale developed by the researchers. Descriptive statistics, MANOVA, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient and stepwise regression analysis were used for data analysis. As a result of the study, it was found that beginning teachers face challenges at moderate level in their first year. Furthermore, it was found that three variables ("relations with students, colleagues, administrators, parents and society", "teaching planning and implementation " and "commitment to the profession") are significant predictors explaining approximately one third (%30.4) of the variance concerning the challenges faced by beginning teachers.

scholarly journals Safety Risk Assessment of Tourism Management System Based on PSO-BP Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Wenru Guo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Management System ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Bp Network ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Better Than

With the development of science and technology, system management is gradually applied to tourism management. How to correctly assess the security risks of the tourism management system has become an important means to maintain passenger information. The security risk index of the travel management system is input into the PSO-BP network as a sample, and the corresponding risk value of the index is used as the network output. The results show that the error results, accuracy (96.53%), training time (216 s), number of iterations (275 times), and convergence speed are all better than traditional BP network. The relative error of PSO-BP network (0.32%) is better than that of BP network, with 300 iterations, and the error is close to 10–5. The average evaluation accuracy of S based on PSO-BP network is 99.72%, and the average time consumed is 2.512 s. It is superior to the evaluation model based on fuzzy set and entropy weight theory and the evaluation model based on gray correlation analysis and radial basis function neural network. In conclusion, the security risk assessment of the tourism management system based on PSO-BP network can effectively assess the security risk of the tourism management system.

scholarly journals Heavy Metals Distribution, Sources, and Ecological Risk Assessment in Huixian Wetland, South China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 431
Author(s):  
Liangliang Huang ◽  
Saeed Rad ◽  
Li Xu ◽  
Liangying Gui ◽  
Xiaohong Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
South China ◽  
Ecological Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Pollution Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Potential Ecological Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources

This research has focused on the source identification, concentration, and ecological risk assessment of eight heavy metals in the largest karst wetland (Huixian) of south China. Numerous samples from superficial soil and sediment within ten representative landuse types were collected and examined, and the results were analyzed using multiple methods. Single pollution index (Pi) results were underpinned by the Geoaccumulation index (Igeo) method, in which Cd was observed as the priority pollutant with the highest contamination degree in this area. As for the most polluted landuse type, via applying Nemerow’s synthetical contamination index (PN) and Potential ecological risk index (RI), the river and rape field posed the highest ecological risks, while moderate for the rest. To quantify the drivers of the contaminants, a principal component analysis (PCA) was carried out and weathering of the watershed’s parent carbonate rocks was found to be the main possible origin, followed by anthropogenic sources induced by agricultural fertilizer. Considering the impacts of these potentially toxic elements on public health, the results of this study are essential to take preventive actions for environmental protection and sustainable development in the region.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document