scholarly journals Migration Pattern As Threshold Parameter In The Propagation of The Covid-19 Epidemic Using An Actor-Based Model for SI-Social Graph

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-105
Author(s):  
Arnold Adimabua Ojugo ◽  
Rume Elizabeth Yoro

Despite the benefits inherent with social interactions, the case of epidemics cum pandemic outbreaks especially the case of the novel corona virus (covid-19) alongside its set protocols employed to contain the spread therein - has continually left the world puzzled as the disease itself has come to stay. The nature of its rapid propagation on exposure alongside its migration spread pattern of this contagion (with retrospect of other epidemics) on daily basis, has also left experts rethinking the set protocols. Our study involved modelling the covid-19 contagion on a social graph, so as to ascertain if its propagation using migration pattern as a threshold parameter can be minimized via the employment of set protocols. We also employed a design that sought to block or minimize targeted spread of the contagion with the introduction of seedset node(s) using the susceptible-infect framework on a time-varying social graph. Study results showed that migration or mobility pattern has become an imperative factors that must be added when modelling the propagation of contagion or epidemics.

Modeling the propagation rate of diseases in a society via social interaction has continued to pose its many challenges. The recent spread of the covid-19 epidemic cannot be left out. Thus, social interactions heralds its many benefits and has becomes a vehicle for epidemic outbreaks –which has continually left the world puzzled as the disease itself has come to stay. The nature of its rapid propagation on exposure alongside its migration spread pattern of this contagion (with retrospect of other epidemics) on daily basis, has also left experts rethinking the set protocols. Our study models the spread propagation of the corona-virus contagion using the movement-interaction-return on a social graph. Thus, weseek to measure if the corona-virus (covid-19)spread propagation can be minimized alongside its death rate using movement pattern as a threshold feature and set of protocols. We design a Markovian block model to help minimize targeted propagation with the advent of seed-node(s) using the susceptible-infect structure on a time-varying graph. Study results showed that movement pattern must be employed as an imperative factors when modeling the propagation of contagion(s).


2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 98-108
Author(s):  
Linh Phan Trong Hoang

Following Mikhail Bakhtin’s poetics, the article approaches Le Minh Phong’s novel The Path from two characteristics including discourse and symbolization. The writer created the coexistence and dialogue between two symbols of awareness and body and used it to present the understanding of people’s lives in modern society. Surrounded by irrational taboos, people fell into the status of losing their voice power. Regaining that lost power, as for the character by Le Minh Phong, is a hopeless path. Hence, the world in the novel exhibited gloom, tearfulness, blood and death, along with the sound of screams, profanity and curses. With the achieved study results, the article contributes to assert Le Minh Phong’s position as a typical artistic style of contemporary Vietnamese literature.


2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (6) ◽  
pp. 360-363
Author(s):  
Minyoung Sim

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread across the world, reducing social interactions and causing substantial psychological distress and economic losses. This review summarizes the psychological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of uncertainty, the loss of autonomy associated with preventive measures, and secondary stressors such as potential future economic losses.


Author(s):  
Rufai Iliyasu ◽  
Ilker Etikan ◽  
Hassan Adamu ◽  
Z Ibrahim ◽  
I Manzo ◽  
...  

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2) outbreak has developed a major public health concern, particularly in northern hemisphere countries. The novel COVID-19 pandemic that broke out in 2019 presented obstacles to the scientific community and healthcare providers. The disparities across Africa highlight the value of assessment that go further than a continent- wide case number, which can distort the true situation on the ground. We wanted to look at epidemiology. In this review using data on confirmed cases and deaths, we attempt to assess the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria and Niger. We also contrasted the patterns of disease transmission and death. The main objective of this research is to address: How do the two countries relate in terms of COVID-19 distribution and mortality. The World Health Organization database, which updates data on the global number of confirmed cases and deaths for the Covid-19 pandemic on a regular basis, was used to get the reported numbers of cases and deaths between the two countries. A Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the average daily reported Covid-19 cases and death and annual cumulative cases and death between the two countries under study. Bivariate correlation analysis was conducted to assess the measure of direction and strength of association that exits between daily new cases and daily new death and also assess the same in terms of annual cumulative cases and death from 1 st April, 2020 to 31st March 2021. In Nigeria, the COVID19 spread pattern was similar to that of Niger. The daily deaths and cases distribution in Niger resembled those of Nigeria, so on daily basis in Niger they record 13.65 covid19 cases on average while Nigeria on average in daily basis they record 445.62 new cases of Covid-19. Then for the new death in Niger the average death on daily basis stand to be 0.50 compare to Nigeria on average which has 5.63 reported new death on daily basis. So for the bivariate correlation re


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelli dos Santos ◽  
André Vinícius Fernandes Ferreira ◽  
Jonatas Oliveira da Silva ◽  
Laís Moreira Nogueira ◽  
Juliana Martins Machado ◽  
...  

Background: Coronaviruses have caused outbreaks of respiratory disease since the beginning of the 21st century, representing a significant threat to public health. Together, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), the respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and, more recently, the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have caused hundreds of thousands of deaths around the world. Thus, investments in research and the development of strategies aimed at diagnosing, treating, and preventing these infections are urgently needed. Objective: The objective of this study was to analyze the patents that address pathogenic coronaviruses in Google Patents databases in the last year (2019-2020). Method : The search strategy was carried out in April 2020, based on the keywords “SARS”, “SARS-CoV”, “MERS”, “MERS-CoV”, “SARS-CoV-2” and “COVID-19. Out of the patents examined, 25 were selected for a short description in this study. Results: A total of 191 patents were analyzed, 149 of which were related to SARS-CoV, and 29 and 12 were related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV2, respectively. The patents addressed the issues of diagnosis, therapeutic agents, prevention and control, along with other applications. Conclusion: Several promising strategies have been documented in intellectual property databases favoring the need for further studies on the pathogenesis and optimization of the diagnosis and therapeutic treatment for these emerging infections.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Nuke Nugraha Cahyawati

<p><strong>Abstract</strong>: The purpose of the research is to find out: 1) the moral values contained in the true story of Greg Mortenson. 2) Educational values provided by Greg Mortenson. The research method used in this study is qualitative with a structural approach. The study results are: 1) The moral values in the novel Three Cups of Tea by Greg Mortenson and David Oliver Relin are caring 26.9%, friendly 15.4%, helpful 11.5%, brave 11.5%, hardworking 19.2%, and optimistic 15.4%. The most moral value in the data is caring with 7 data or 26.9%. 2) The educational values contained in the novel Three Cups of Tea by Greg Mortenson and David Oliver Relin are attitudes toward the world of education amounting to 28.6% and the struggle to establish schools 71.4%. The most data found in the struggle to establish schools amounted to 71.4%.<br /><strong>Keywords</strong>: moral values, educational values, content analysis</p>


Author(s):  
Binayak Sinha ◽  
Sumit Sengupta ◽  
Samit Ghosal

ABSTRACTIntroductionThe novel coronavirus epidemic which originated in late 2019 from China has wreaked havoc on millions across the world with illness, death and socioeconomic recession. As of now no valid treatment or preventative strategy has evolved worldwide and governments across the world have been forced to take the draconian step of social isolation in communities by enforcing “lockdowns”.Aim of this StudyThis study aims to correlate the rates of infection with the novel coronavirus and total deaths as the primary output variable. In addition the strength of association between infection rates and total death in comparison to GDP share of the respective countries, physicians, hospital beds and rates of testing for COVID 19 infection per thousand patients, is being assessed, in a bid to develop a model which would help to develop tools to reduce the impact of this disease.Material & MethodsData relating to number of cases, severity, cases recovered and deaths worldwide and specifically for the top six countries affected was collected from the WHO COVID-19 situation report which is being updated on a daily basis till 22nd March 2020, the date of analysis. Additional data related to GDP, physician and hospital bed per 1000 patients were procured from the World Bank database. All data were collected in a file in CSV format. Analysis was conducted in Jupyter notebook with Python 3.8.2 software and also with XL-Stat statistical software for excel. The analytical strategy was descriptive with no inferential overtones.ResultsCOVID 19 infection strongly correlates with total deaths (r : 0.89), with a predicted death rate of 25 patients per 1000 affected. There was no correlation between the GDP growth of the country and number of treating physicians/1000 patient population with any COVID 19 related outcome. However there was a negative correlation between COVID 19-related deaths and the number of beds available per 1000 population [r=-0.34]. Importantly there is an inverse correlation between the number of tests conducted per million population with the rates of active infections [r=-0.12], new cases [r=-0.38] and new deaths [r=-0.28] in COVID 19.ConclusionThis is the first study to assess parameters other than age and sex and sets out a robust dataset which indicates an increased risk of worsening outcomes with lesser number of beds and testing, suggesting that the need of the hour is to increase available bed numbers and to increase rates of testing.


Author(s):  
Jesse Schotter

Hieroglyphs have persisted for so long in the Western imagination because of the malleability of their metaphorical meanings. Emblems of readability and unreadability, universality and difference, writing and film, writing and digital media, hieroglyphs serve to encompass many of the central tensions in understandings of race, nation, language and media in the twentieth century. For Pound and Lindsay, they served as inspirations for a more direct and universal form of writing; for Woolf, as a way of treating the new medium of film and our perceptions of the world as a kind of language. For Conrad and Welles, they embodied the hybridity of writing or the images of film; for al-Hakim and Mahfouz, the persistence of links between ancient Pharaonic civilisation and a newly independent Egypt. For Joyce, hieroglyphs symbolised the origin point for the world’s cultures and nations; for Pynchon, the connection between digital code and the novel. In their modernist interpretations and applications, hieroglyphs bring together writing and new media technologies, language and the material world, and all the nations and languages of the globe....


Metahumaniora ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Muhamad Adji

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh gambaran tentang sikap kebangsaananak muda Indonesia pada tiga novel populer yaitu Ali Topan Anak Jalanan karya TeguhEsha, Lupus: Makhluk Manis dalam Bis karya Hilman Hariwijaya, dan Balada Si Roy karya GolaGong. Alasan pemilihan objek penelitian di atas adalah karena ketiga novel tersebut memilikitingkat popularitas yang tinggi pada tiap zamannya sehingga membuat tokoh utamanyamenjadi representasi anak muda Indonesia pada zamannya masing-masing. Pertanyaanpertanyaanyang memandu tulisan ini adalah 1) Bagaimana keindonesiaan digambarkanpada ketiga novel tersebut dan 2) Bagaimana sikap kebangsaan direpresentasikan tokohanak muda pada ketiga novel tersebut. Dari hasil kajian didapatkan simpulan bahwasikap kebangsaan yang ditampilkan pada ketiga novel tersebut memiliki tingkatan yangberbeda-beda. Novel Ali Topan Anak Jalanan menunjukkan sikap kebangsaan dengan lebihkritis. Hegemoni orde Baru pada masa itu belum berhasil karena novel populer masihmenampilkan tokoh anak muda yang kritis dan cenderung memberontak terhadap nilainilaiideologi Orde Baru. Periode ’80-an menampilkan novel populer dengan tokoh anakmuda yang memiliki sikap kebangsaan yang terbelah. Pertama, anak muda yang dapatmenerima realitas yang dikontruksi Orde Baru, dengan menjalani sistem tersebut danmemposisikan dirinya sebagai bagian dari sistem tersebut. Hal itu direpresentasikan olehtokoh Lupus dalam novel Lupus: Makhluk Manis dalam Bis. Kedua, anak muda yang tidakdapat menerima realitas yang dikonstruksi Orde Baru, dengan cara keluar dari bagiansistem tersebut. Hal itu direpresentasikan oleh tokoh Roy dalam Balada Si Roy.Kata kunci: kebangsaan, anak muda, novel populer, Orde BaruAbstractThis study aims to obtain a picture of Indonesian nationalism in the three popularnovels that were Ali Topan Anak Jalanan by Teguh Esha, Lupus: Makhluk Manis dalam Bisby Hilman Hariwijaya, dan Balada Si Roy by Gola Gong. The reason for choosing the object ofresearch above is that all three novels are recognized to have high levels of popularity in eachera so that made the main characters became a representation of Indonesian youth at that time.The questions that guide the writing are 1) How Indonesianness described in the third novel?2) How does nationalism represented by youth in these three novels. From the study results isobtained the conclusion that nationalism is displayed on the third novel has a level different.Ali Topan Anak Jalanan show a nationalism more critically. The New Order’s hegemony atthat time has not been successful because the novel still showing a critical youth and tends torevolt against the ideological values of the New Order. The ‘80s period featured a popular novelwith a youth character who had a split nationalism. First, the youth who can accept the realitythat the New Order has constructed, with the system and position itself as part of the system.It was represented by the Lupus’s character in the Lupus: Makhluk Manis dalam Bis. Second,the youth who can not accept the facts constructed by the New Order, by going out from thatpart of the system. It was represented by Roy’s character in the Balada Si Roy.Keywords: nationalism, youth, popular novel, New Order


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 350-356
Author(s):  
Anca Sîrbu

AbstractWith the rapid onset of an unprecedented lifestyle due to the new coronavirus COVID-19 the world academic scene was forced to reform and adapt to the novel circumstances. Although online education cannot be regarded as a groundbreaking endeavour anymore in the21st century, its current character of exclusivity calls for deeper understanding of, and a sharper focus on the “end-consumer” thereof as well as more cautious procedures to be exercised while teaching. While millennials are no longer thought of as being born with a silver spoon in their mouth but with an iPad or any sort of device in their hand (irrespective of their social status), adults are more hesitant when coerced to alter course unexpectedly and turn to new methods of attaining their learning goals. This is why proper communicative approaches need to be thoroughly considered by online instructors. This article aims at presenting teachers with a set of strategies to employ when the beneficiaries of online academic education are adult learners.


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