scholarly journals Modeling Mobility Pattern for the Corona-Virus Epidemic Spread Propagation and Death Rate in Nigeria using the Movement-Interaction-Return Model

Modeling the propagation rate of diseases in a society via social interaction has continued to pose its many challenges. The recent spread of the covid-19 epidemic cannot be left out. Thus, social interactions heralds its many benefits and has becomes a vehicle for epidemic outbreaks –which has continually left the world puzzled as the disease itself has come to stay. The nature of its rapid propagation on exposure alongside its migration spread pattern of this contagion (with retrospect of other epidemics) on daily basis, has also left experts rethinking the set protocols. Our study models the spread propagation of the corona-virus contagion using the movement-interaction-return on a social graph. Thus, weseek to measure if the corona-virus (covid-19)spread propagation can be minimized alongside its death rate using movement pattern as a threshold feature and set of protocols. We design a Markovian block model to help minimize targeted propagation with the advent of seed-node(s) using the susceptible-infect structure on a time-varying graph. Study results showed that movement pattern must be employed as an imperative factors when modeling the propagation of contagion(s).

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-105
Author(s):  
Arnold Adimabua Ojugo ◽  
Rume Elizabeth Yoro

Despite the benefits inherent with social interactions, the case of epidemics cum pandemic outbreaks especially the case of the novel corona virus (covid-19) alongside its set protocols employed to contain the spread therein - has continually left the world puzzled as the disease itself has come to stay. The nature of its rapid propagation on exposure alongside its migration spread pattern of this contagion (with retrospect of other epidemics) on daily basis, has also left experts rethinking the set protocols. Our study involved modelling the covid-19 contagion on a social graph, so as to ascertain if its propagation using migration pattern as a threshold parameter can be minimized via the employment of set protocols. We also employed a design that sought to block or minimize targeted spread of the contagion with the introduction of seedset node(s) using the susceptible-infect framework on a time-varying social graph. Study results showed that migration or mobility pattern has become an imperative factors that must be added when modelling the propagation of contagion or epidemics.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 598-598
Author(s):  
Ruixue Zhaoyang ◽  
Stacey Scott ◽  
Eric Cerino ◽  
Martin Sliwinski

Abstract Social relationships play an important role in cognitive health and aging. However, it is unclear how older adult’s cognitive function affects their everyday social interactions, especially for those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This study examined whether older adults with intact cognition vs. MCI differed in their daily social interactions. Community-dwelling older adults from the Einstein Aging Study (N=244, 70-91 yrs) reported their social interactions five times daily for 14 consecutive days using smartphones. Compared to those with normal cognitive function, older adults with MCI reported less frequent positive social interactions (p=0.012) and in-person social activities (p=0.006) on a daily basis. These two groups, however, did not show significant differences in their social relationships assessed by a conventional global questionnaire. The results support that, relative to global social relationships, daily social interactions are more sensitive, ecologically valid social markers that can facilitate the early detection of MCI.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1903-1906
Author(s):  
Nabila Khan ◽  
Zahra Wasim ◽  
Aesha Sadaf Rizwan ◽  
Afshan Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
...  

Background: The new corona virus first appeared in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has since spread around the world to other countries. The World Health Organization believes that this new CoV-19 epidemic is a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on January 30, 2020Worldwide.The mortality rate of this viral infection ranges from 2% in Pakistan to 14.4% in Italy. Lympopenia, elevated transminase, proteinuria, increased LDH, and C-reactive protein levels are all common laboratory findings in the early stages of the disease. Covid patients have experienced a variety of complications, including extreme pneumonia, ARDS, heart defects, sepsis and septic shock, and respiratory tract super infection. Methodology: This retrospective observational research study was carried out at the Gynecology Unit of MardanMedical Complex, Mardan and Combined Military Hospital, Risalpur for 06 months duration from April 2020 to September 2020. In a pre-constructed data collection form, biochemical and radiological parameters of medical history, test results, symptoms, pregnancy, and neonatal outcomes were noted. Patients treated in an outpatient setting were not included in the study. Results: There were 121 patients in total, with mean age of 27 having standard deviation ± 5, having range 19-40 years. 48.3% pregnant women reported their first pregnancy(primigravida). 51.3% of SARS-Cov-2 were in their 3rd trimester while 34.7% were in their 35-40 weeks of gestational age. Common complications are gestational hypertension (PIH) (16 cases), hypothyroidism (14 cases) and gestational diabetes (GDM) 9 cases. More than half (53%) of patients are asymptomatic. Common symptoms are cough (22%) and fever (11%). The incidence of multiple organ failure was 2% as shown in table 01. Lymphopenia was common (84%). A CT scan of 24 patients showed bilateral invasion. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a negative impact on the foetus, according to our results. Although pregnant women do not seem to be more vulnerable to COVID-19 complications than non-pregnant adults, previous research has suggested that pregnant women could be at higher risk for negative pregnancy outcomes such as preterm birth, foetal pain and respiration, symptoms, and LBW in a newborn baby. Keywords: Corona virus, COVID-19, Pregnancy, Outcome.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
pp. 6655-6675 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Dusanter ◽  
D. Vimal ◽  
P. S. Stevens ◽  
R. Volkamer ◽  
L. T. Molina ◽  
...  

Abstract. Measurements of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals were made during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) field campaign as part of the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) project during March 2006. These measurements provide a unique opportunity to test current models of atmospheric ROx (OH + HO2 + RO2) photochemistry under polluted conditions. A zero-dimensional box model based on the Regional Atmospheric Chemical Mechanism (RACM) was constrained by 10-min averages of 24 J-values and the concentrations of 97 chemical species. Several issues related to the ROx chemistry under polluted conditions are highlighted in this study: (i) Measured concentrations of both OH and HO2 were underpredicted during morning hours on a median campaign basis, suggesting a significant source of radicals is missing from current atmospheric models under polluted conditions, consistent with previous urban field campaigns. (ii) The model-predicted HO2/OH ratios underestimate the measurements for NO mixing ratios higher than 5 ppb, also consistent with previous urban field campaigns. This suggests that under high NOx conditions, the HO2 to OH propagation rate may be overestimated by the model or a process converting OH into HO2 may be missing from the chemical mechanism. On a daily basis (08:40 a.m.–06:40 p.m.), an analysis of the radical budget indicates that HONO photolysis, HCHO photolysis, O3-alkene reactions and dicarbonyls photolysis are the main radical sources. O3 photolysis contributes to less than 6% of the total radical production.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 1305
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. A. Orabi ◽  
Heba M. A. Khalil ◽  
Mohamed E. Abouelela ◽  
Dalia Zaafar ◽  
Yasmine H. Ahmed ◽  
...  

Chemotherapeutic-related toxicity exacerbates the increasing death rate among cancer patients, necessitating greater efforts to find a speedy solution. An in vivo assessment of the protective effect of the C. macrocarpa leaves polar fraction of hydromethanolic extract against doxorubicin (Dox)-induced neurotoxicity was performed. Intriguingly, this fraction ameliorated Dox-induced cognitive dysfunction; reduced serum ROS and brain TNF-α levels, upregulated the brain nerve growth factor (NGF) levels, markedly reduced caspase-3 immunoexpression, and restored the histological architecture of the brain hippocampus. The in vivo study results were corroborated with a UPLC-ESI-MS/MS profiling that revealed the presence of a high percentage of the plant polyphenolics. Molecular modeling of several identified molecules in this fraction demonstrated a strong binding affinity of flavan-3-ol derivatives with TACE enzymes, in agreement with the experimental in vivo neuroprotective activity. In conclusion, the C. macrocarpa leaves polar fraction possesses neuroprotective activity that could have a promising role in ameliorating chemotherapeutic-induced side effects.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (5 (109)) ◽  
pp. 6-15
Author(s):  
Vitalii Kovalchuk ◽  
Ivan Kravets ◽  
Olga Nabochenko ◽  
Arthur Onyshchenko ◽  
Olexander Fedorenko ◽  
...  

This paper reports the analysis of the methods for estimating the technical condition of the subgrade underneath a constructed railroad track or road during its operation. The study results have proven that the issue related to monitoring and controlling high-quality compaction of a heterogeneous subgrade remains relevant and requires the construction of reliable experimental methods for assessing the subgrade degree of compaction. A procedure for determining the compaction of subgrade in the laboratory has been devised, based on inertial microcomputer technologies, which makes it possible to assess the degree of compaction of subgrade soils depending on the propagation rate of an impact's elastic waves. An experimental study has been performed into the propagation rate of elastic waves across a homogeneous subgrade made of coarse-grained sand and a heterogeneous subgrade made of coarse sand with a layer of clay in the middle of the prism. The study results established that the propagation rate of an elastic wave in a heterogeneous subgrade accepts a lower value than the rate of wave propagation in a homogeneous subgrade. Through the dynamic interpretation, by using a discriminant statistical analysis, the characteristic features have been defined in the distribution of accelerations in the body of the homogeneous and heterogeneous subgrade, depending on the degree of compaction, which would make it possible to monitor the state of the subgrade during operation. As the degree of the subgrade soil compaction affects the technical condition of roads


2021 ◽  
Vol p5 (02) ◽  
pp. 2680-2688
Author(s):  
Ravindrakumar Mane ◽  
Ram Lade

To overcome COVID-19 infection there is no any precise & effective management plan so far available in contemporary Medicine. Therefore, an attempt of administering Ayurvedic medicines to alleviate signs & symptoms of Novel Corona virus is taken into consideration. A clinical trial was performed in hospital with the combination of pure herbo-mineral Ayurvedic medicines named as ‘Shwashara’ along with modern medicines over 93 infected indoor subjects. In total sample size, 76.34% subjects had co-morbidities, after treatment it is been observed that, 29.58% of these subjects did not need oxygen support. 52.69% of sub-jects had HRCT score more than half. 58.06% were recovered within 7 Days. Out of 471 patients, who re-ceived only modern medicines had death rate of 10.02% and the Subjects treated with both systems of medicines have recorded 2.15% death. The ‘Shwashara’ medicine decreases symptoms of pneumonia & COVID-19, strengthen lungs and reduces death rate significantly.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (05) ◽  
pp. 685-690
Author(s):  
Shafqat Ullah ◽  
Naheed Mahsood ◽  
Ayesha Imtiaz ◽  
Amir Hamza

Introduction: Milk and dairy products are consumed by the human on dailybasis throughout the globe and constitute a huge business by the dairy farmers due to its highdemand. The consumers of milk and milk products expect its high quality, free from the artificialpreservatives and threatening agents. Objectives: To determine the chemical quality of rawbovine milk sold in open markets of district Peshawar. Study Design: Cross-sectional study.Setting: 4 towns, Town 1(Sikandar Town and Gul Bahar) ,2 (Shahi Bala,Methra and Pajjagi),3(University Road and Hayatabad Area), 4 (Hazaekhawani and Badabair Area) of districtPeshawar. Period: 6 months; from November 2016 to April 2017. Methodology: 158 sampleswere selected. All samples were analyzed for adulteration in the Public Health Laboratory phase5 Hayatabad Peshawar. Study duration was 6 months; convenient sampling technique hasbeen followed. Results: Among all 158 samples; 32.3% of the sample were adulterated withwater. 8.9% of sample showed hydrogen per oxide adulteration. Starch, cane sugar and ureaadulteration was in 7.6%, 2.5% and 1.9% samples respectively. Vegetable oil, formalin andsynthetic milk adulteration was in 1.9%, 5.7% and 5.7% of samples respectively. We have LargeScale Vendors i.e. Rural Area 10% showing low and Urban Area 90% as high adulteration, SmallScale Vendors 30% low in rural Area and 70% high adulteration in urban area respectively.Conclusion: This study results provided a base line data of chemical composition of bovinemilk used in Peshawar. Chemical were present and can play key role in alteration of milk whichwe use on daily basis. Water content was high, it means that most of the shop-keepers prefer tomix water in milk to increase the quantity of milk. Use of starch, Vegetable Oil and Formalin wasminimal. Use of hydrogen peroxide, Urea and synthetic milk was very less in provided sample.


Author(s):  
Raunak Manjeet ◽  
KULDEEP D’MELLO ◽  
ATUL SINGH ◽  
SWATI SRIVASTAVA

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS COV 2) and its linked corona virus disease has troubled the entire world community led to a serious public health concerns. Despite the various efforts to stop the spread of this disease globally, the outbreak is still on the rise because of the community spread pattern of this disease. This is believed to have originated in bats pangolins initially later it got transmitted to humans. Once it comes in the human body , this corona virus remains abundantly present in nasopharyngeal and salivary secretions of affected patients. Its spreading nature is mainly through the respiratory droplet spread / aerosol infection. Dental professionals, including Orthodontists , Oral Surgeons , Periodontists, Endodontists and Prosthodontists are all at high risk, since they may encounter patients with suspected or confirmed SARS COV 2 infection will have to act accordingly not only to provide care but at the same time prevent nosocomial spread of infection. Thus, the aim of this article is to provide a brief detailing of the cause, sign symptoms and different routes of transmission of this infection. In addition specific recommendations for dental practice are suggested for patient screening, infection control strategies and patient management protocol . KEY WORDS Coronavirus ,COVID 19, SARS COV 2 ,Dental practice ,Orthodontics ,OMFS, severe acute respiratory syndrome .


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kokab Shahzad Rathore ◽  

Social media and its usage are one of the essential activities of this century. Many social media sites are there in the world, and they have millions of users. This research aims to explore the effects of social media usage on parents and children interpersonal relationships. Relationships among parents and children are an essential factor in having excellent bonding of family. The total numbers of respondents were 384, who were selected according to Morgan and Krejcie’sformula. Islamabad was the city where the survey was conducted. Probability sampling was used for this study. The study was based on the theory of Time displacement by Robert Putnam (1970). He argued that when we give more time to our virtual world, our time to our real-world will be less. Two hundred children and 184 parents were the respondents of this study. Results showed that most of the users are heavy users; they use social media more than 4 hours on a daily basis. The outcome revealed that Facebook is much admired social media site among users. According to results, 65% of respondents elaborated that social media unite families, and the rest of 35% said that they are against this statement. Furthermore, 73% of the total population responded that social media decreased face-to-face interaction between parents and children. On the other hand, 14% were neutral, and 11% were against this statement. According to results of hypothesis it has been found that both parents and children support positive aspects of social media usage. This study also finds out that heavy social media usage causes many troubles like sleeplessness, interest in the virtual world, and face-to-face interaction between children and parents. This study recommends the less usage of the virtual world and social sites to make strong relations in real life.


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