scholarly journals Mathematical modeling approach to predict COVID-19 infected people in Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 4672-4699
Author(s):  
I. H. K. Premarathna ◽  
◽  
H. M. Srivastava ◽  
Z. A. M. S. Juman ◽  
Ali AlArjani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Solution Technique ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
New Finding ◽  
Stochastic Forecasting ◽  
The Government

<abstract> <p>The novel corona virus (COVID-19) has badly affected many countries (more than 180 countries including China) in the world. More than 90% of the global COVID-19 cases are currently outside China. The large, unanticipated number of COVID-19 cases has interrupted the healthcare system in many countries and created shortages for bed space in hospitals. Consequently, better estimation of COVID-19 infected people in Sri Lanka is vital for government to take suitable action. This paper investigates predictions on both the number of the first and the second waves of COVID-19 cases in Sri Lanka. First, to estimate the number of first wave of future COVID-19 cases, we develop a stochastic forecasting model and present a solution technique for the model. Then, another solution method is proposed to the two existing models (SIR model and Logistic growth model) for the prediction on the second wave of COVID-19 cases. Finally, the proposed model and solution approaches are validated by secondary data obtained from the Epidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka. A comparative assessment on actual values of COVID-19 cases shows promising performance of our developed stochastic model and proposed solution techniques. So, our new finding would definitely be benefited to practitioners, academics and decision makers, especially the government of Sri Lanka that deals with such type of decision making.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals Indonesian Clove Competitiveness and Competitor Countries in International Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-54
Author(s):  
Adnan Putra Pratama ◽  
Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto ◽  
Masyhuri Masyhuri
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
International Market ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Star Position

Trade liberalization is currently demanding every country to increase the competitiveness of its products. Indonesia as the largest clove producer in the world has a major competitor in the international market. This study aims to determine the competitiveness of Indonesia's clove exports and competing countries in the international market and determine the factors that affect its competitiveness. The data used in this study are secondary data from five major producing countries namely Indonesia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, and Comoros during the period 2000-2017 sourced from UNComtrade, FAO and the World Bank. Competitiveness is measured by Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Acceleration Ratio (AR) and Export Product Dynamic (EPD) while the factors that affect competitiveness are used panel data regression methods using E-Views software. The results showed that Indonesia had the lowest RCA index, the AR value showed Madagascar and Tanzania were able to capture market share in the international market and the EPD value showed that all countries occupied the rising star position except Sri Lanka in the falling star position. Panel data regression analysis results show that the market share and GDP variables significantly influence the competitiveness of the main clove producing countries while the production variables and export prices do not significantly influence the country's competitiveness. The government must dare to take policies to limit clove imports and increase exports.

scholarly journals The obstacles to combat against COVID-19 pandemic and the remedies: Bangladesh scenario

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mst. Rashida Pervin ◽  
Rehana Parvin ◽  
Md. Ashraful Babu ◽  
Md. Mortuza Ahmmed ◽  
Roy Rillera Marzo
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Poor Patient ◽  
The Government ◽  
Design And Methods ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Poor Management

Background: Bangladesh has been going through the austerity of the unique COVID-19 for more than a year like several other nations in the world in spite of concerted efforts taken by the government along with other concerned authorities who have advocated compulsory guidelines involving social distancing procedures accompanied by lockdown to have control over the pandemic. In this paper, the barriers faced by the government to protect people from the COVID-19 pandemic have been investigated. Also, the number of daily infected people against the number of daily tests has been underlined to comprehend the overall pandemic picture in Bangladesh. Design and Methods: A descriptive study has been carried out to investigate the obstacles to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic for this country. The intensity of the outbreaks of the pandemic in this country is stated from March 8, 2020, to February 12, 2021. Secondary data have been employed from different sources to serve the goals of the study. Results: The poor management in the health sector of Bangladesh has been an issue of major concern during the early stage of COVID-19 which incorporates deficiency of medical equipment, lack of facilities for testing COVID-19, poor patient management, and uncertainty in the medication system. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for the concerned organizations to tackle the current pandemic and as well in the future. Conclusions: To control this COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to find the difficulties and discover the remedies which have been done in this paper for the Bangladesh perspective.

scholarly journals Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease (Spatial Inquiry of 2016-2017) in Polonnaruwa District, Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
M Riswan
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Health Hazard ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Cost Of Treatment ◽  
The People ◽  
Ongoing Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

The CKD as a serious public health hazard in Sri Lanka, which is the cause of poverty and underdevelopment among affected families in various parts of the country. CKD has become a new challenge for the health sector and driven people to the loss of livelihood, productivity, and increase the cost of treatment. This paper emphasized the prevalence of CKD and unequal frequencies of the disease in different health regions (MOHs) in Polonnaruwa district, Sri Lanka. Based on primary and secondary data analysis, the results of the findings were produced in a descriptive way in which tables, maps, and charts were also administered. The study mainly used ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.3) software to identify the different distribution of CKD unequally in different health regions (seven MOH divisions) in the district. The study found that the endemic of CKD and affected patients, HD patients, and death rate also occurred unequally in each MOH division in different means. The distribution of CKD occurred due to the geographical setting, social, economic patterns of the people in the study area.Nevertheless, this study only focused on understanding the different prevalence of CKD in each MOH division in a particular district. However, the study needs to be extended further to identify the factors and impacts due to this chronic health issue in the district and country as a whole. The study suggested that CKD has become a major obstacle to the ongoing development activities in the district; thus, the government needs to identify disseminate methods to prevent CKD from this study area, as well as from Sri Lanka

scholarly journals COVID-19: The Crossroads for Sinhala–Muslim Relations in Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962110218
Author(s):  
Mohamed Imtiyaz Abdul Razak ◽  
Amjad Mohamed Saleem
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Religious Identity ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
The State ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Tamil Tigers ◽  
The Government

Sri Lanka’s ethnic civil war between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), also known as the Tamil Tigers, and the government of Sri Lanka comprising the majority of the Sinhalese Buddhist community came to a bloody end in May 2009. Muslims, whose political and civil society elite had largely supported the Sri Lankan state and security forces, welcomed the end of the war and the defeat of the Tamil Tigers given the history of the community with the LTTE. The expectations by the Muslims (and other communities) that peace would return to the country, were quickly dashed as it appeared that a new extremist Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist movement targeting religious minorities especially the Muslims would emerge as the country grappled with post-war reconciliation. The rise of anti-Muslim rhetoric, hate speech, and incitement to violence against the community has pushed some Muslims to think that they have become the new focus for Sinhala-Buddhist extremists in the wake of the defeat of the Tamil Tigers. With suspicions of the complicity of the state apparatus in the anti-Muslim campaign, there are serious concerns around the role and place of minorities (non-Sinhala and non-Buddhist) in the future makeup of the country. While there is no concrete evidence on the state’s support for such an action, it is clear that the reluctance of the state to bring to justice those responsible for hate speech and incitement to violence since 2009 raises some serious questions about impartiality. In addition, with the increase of detentions and scrutiny of the Muslim community’s post-Easter Sunday attacks and the recent treatment of the Muslim community in the response to the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, including shutting down of key Muslim towns and the enforcement of forced cremations (which goes against Islamic teachings of dignified burials), there is much to ponder of an anti-Muslim strategy being mainstreamed and institutionalized by the state. This paper will seek to situate the present response to the COVID-19 pandemic by the state and its particular actions affecting the Muslim community amid a wider backdrop of a rise in anti-Muslim hatred and action. In order to understand this, the paper will seek to understand the reasoning behind why Muslims who supported the war against the Tamil Tigers, have now become the enemy for Sinhala-Buddhist extremists. It does this through primary and secondary data gathering including interviews conducted between July 2020 and February 2021. In so doing this paper will explore the development of Muslim political and religious identity by looking at a historical perspective. This paper makes the argument that a holistic approach needs to be developed to avoid a new conflict taking place in Sri Lanka and to avoid violent Islamist extremism taking hold.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting Ethnic Harmony between Sinhalese and Muslim Communities in Post-war Sri Lanka: A Study Based on South Eastern University of Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ahamed Sarjoon Razick ◽  
Mohamed Anifa Mohamed Fowsar ◽  
Abdul Kalik Mihilar
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Political Ideologies ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War ◽  
Muslim Communities

Sri Lanka is home to multi-cultural communities. It is the responsibility of the people across various religions, and communities to develop and maintain harmony with each other. Historically, the Sri Lankan Muslims and Sinhala Buddhists had an excellent relationship. Recently, the ethnic harmony between these two communities has been strained reflecting the fault lines running in a current social structure which lead to ethnic tensions, social animosities, restlessness, and disharmony among communities, amidst diverging political ideologies. Hence, this study focuses on identifying the root causes that wreck the harmony and social stability of the country. Hundred and fifty students from the South Eastern University of Sri Lanka were randomly selected to respond for a structured questionnaire, and fifteen formal interviews with students were also conducted to validate the questionnaire data. The secondary data were collected from various sources of information. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive and basic statistical analytic techniques, and findings of the study were presented in the form of table and text. This study underlines the array of reasons, and root causes that prevent the harmony among Sinhala Buddhists and Muslim communities, such as ethnic differences, spreading hatred via social media, extremism that uses religion to forward their extremist ideologies. This study concludes with the argument that the government and people who strive for social harmony should act with commitment and dedication in the efforts to build harmony among religious communities in post-war Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals Towards a Spontaneous Community Participation Model in Community-Based Tourism

2021 ◽  
Vol 10(1) (10(1)) ◽  
pp. 222-237
Author(s):  
Nothando Sithole ◽  
Andrea Giampiccoli ◽  
Sean Jugmohan
Keyword(s):  
Community Development ◽  
Community Participation ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
External Assistance ◽  
Conceptual Paper ◽  
The Government ◽  
Development Approach ◽  
Online Sources

This article proposes guidelines and themes related to the advancement of spontaneous community participation for community-based tourism (CBT). Community-based tourism has its own difficulties and challenges, however it can still be a valuable strategy to advance community development through tourism. Globally, CBT has been embraced as a tourism development approach in various geographical contexts. In South Africa the Government has published specific Operational guidelines for community-based tourism and reflects on community participation in tourism over the last decades. This paper does not intend to idealise CBT or deny the possible use of external assistance. However, it proposes a facilitative approach, as the base of spontaneous participation to positively favour community spontaneous participation in CBT. This article proposes a community participation model, based on the extrapolation of themes on spontaneous participation. The proposed model is flexible and adjustable to various contexts aimed for global relevance. This is a conceptual paper based on secondary data and was compiled from existing literature and online sources.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samson Lasaulce ◽  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Vineeth Varma ◽  
Irinel Constantin Morărescu
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategy ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Government Decision ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Natural Tendency ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Government

Various measures have been taken in different countries to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic. But, throughout the world, many citizens don't understand well how these measures are taken and even question the decisions taken by their government. Should the measures be more (or less) restrictive? Are they taken for a too long (or too short) period of time? To provide some quantitative elements of response to these questions, we consider the well-known SEIR model for the Covid-19 epidemic propagation and propose a pragmatic model of the government decision-making operation. Although simple and obviously improvable, the proposed model allows us to study the tradeoff between health and economic aspects in a pragmatic and insightful way. Assuming a given number of phases for the epidemic (namely, 4 in this paper) and a desired tradeoff between health and economic aspects, it is then possible to determine the optimal duration of each phase and the optimal severity level (i.e., the target transmission rate) for each of them. The numerical analysis is performed for the case of France but the adopted approach can be applied to any country. One of the takeaway messages of this analysis is that being able to implement the optimal 4−phase epidemic management strategy in France would have led to 1.05 million of infected people and a GDP loss of 231 billions € instead of 6.88 millions of infected and a loss of 241 billions €. This indicates that, seen from the proposed model perspective, the effectively implemented epidemic management strategy is good economically, whereas substantial improvements might have been obtained in terms of health impact. Our analysis indicates that the lockdown/severe phase should have been more severe but shorter, and the adjustment phase occurred earlier. Due to the natural tendency of people to deviate from the official rules, updating measures every month over the whole epidemic episode seems to be more appropriate.

JAMINAN SOSIAL TENAGA KERJA DI INDONESIA SEBAGAI NEGARA KESEJAHTERAAN DITINJAU DARI PERSPEKTIF HUKUM PROGRESIF

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayunita Nur Rohanawati
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Legal Theory ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Black And White ◽  
Collection Process ◽  
The People ◽  
Document Collection ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Regulations

AbstractThis study aims to determine the social security system adopted by Indonesia, see Indonesia as a function of the welfare state as mandated by the 1945 Constitution has not done well, and to know the view of progressive legal theory legislation related to social security in providing solutions to the problems of social security the workforce. This research is devoted to the study of normative legal systematics, which is intended to determine the implementation of a theory of the legal conditions that exist in society. Results of this study produces a secondary data. The data obtained from the document collection process or library materials. Of the collection process, the data were analyzed qualitatively, systematically arranged, and presented descriptively. The results showed that Indonesia is still not able to fully administer social security for the people, where social security is still a “black and white” but the State has not been able in practice to assume responsibility for the implementation of social security as a whole. About social security, the Government is still not able to provide significant changes to the equalization gain social security for the workers, but changes in social security regulations on labor is performed repeatedly. Necessary party whom dared to take a policy or decisions that benefit the workers to realize the welfare of the workers. Parties reffered to the law is used as a progressive peeler, is a party that has an important role that enterpreneurs and the Industrial Relations Court Judge.Keywords: Social Security, Labour, Progressive LawIntisariPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui sistem jaminan sosial yang dianut Indonesia, melihat fungsi Indonesia sebagai negara kesejahteraan sesuai amanat Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1945 belum terlaksana dengan baik, serta untuk mengetahui teori hukum progresif memandang peraturan perundang-undangan terkait jaminan sosial tenaga kerja dalam memberikan solusi atas permasalahan jaminan sosial tenaga kerja tersebut.Penelitian ini bersifat normatif yang dikhususkan pada penelitian sistematika hukum, yang dimaksudkan untuk mengetahui implementasi pelaksanaan suatu teori terhadap kondisi hukum yang ada di masyarakat. Hasil penelitian ini menghasilkan suatu data sekunder. Data tersebut diperoleh dari proses pengumpulan dokumen atau bahan pustaka. Dari proses pengumpulan tersebut, data yang diperoleh dianalisis secara kualitatif disusun secara sistematis dan disajikan secara deskriptif.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia masih belum mampu secara seutuhnya menyelenggarakan jaminan sosial bagi rakyat, dimana jaminan sosial tersebut masih sebatas “hitam diatas putih” namun, negara belum mampu dalam pelaksanaannya untuk mengemban tanggung jawab pelaksanaan jaminan sosial tersebut secara utuh. Tentang jaminan sosial tenaga kerja, pemerintah masih belum mampu memberikan perubahan yang signifikan terhadap pemerataan perolehan jaminan sosial tenaga kerja bagi para pekerja tersebut, padahal perubahan peraturan tentang jaminan sosial tenaga kerja tersebut berulang kali dilakukan. Diperlukan pihak yang berani untuk mengambil suatu kebijakan atau keputusan yang bermanfaat bagi pekerja demi terwujudnya kesejahteraan bagi pekerja. Pihak sebagaimana dimaksud jika hukum progresif yang digunakan sebagai alat pengupas, adalah pihak yang memiliki peran penting yaitu pengusaha dan Hakim Pengadilan Hubungan Industrial.Kata Kunci: Jaminan Sosial, Tenaga Kerja, Hukum Progresif.

Agro-Innovation – Path to Agricultural Entrepreneurship: Feasibility Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Elias Kamaruzzaman ◽  
Norzaidi Mohd Daud ◽  
Samsudin Wahab ◽  
Rozhan Abu Dardak
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Cost ◽  
Technology Changes ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
The Government ◽  
Agricultural Entrepreneurship

Technology changes will always be for the better, not only to the end users but also to the intellectual property owners of the technology and the implementers of the technology. The objective of this paper is to study the feasibility and viability for entrepreneurs to become service providers for the dispensation of fertilizers, pesticides, fungicides and supporting services such as aerial crop reconnaissance using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) or drones. The methodology used for this study is SWOT Analysis. Both primary and secondary data is used for this analysis. This study finds that paddy farming employing drones is feasible. The beneficiaries of this study shall be the government, by way of lowering financial cost to subsidise the paddy planting, the farmers who no longer need the services of migrant workers, thus saving production cost, and finally the drone service providers and their downstream business associates who can engaged themselves in very lucrative businesses.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

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