Inferring seismic hazards from a new 1:25,000 scale map of active and potentially-active continental faults in Chile

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Melnick ◽  
Valentina Maldonado ◽  
Martin Contreras ◽  
Julius Jara-Muñoz ◽  
Joaquín Cortés-Aranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
National Level ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Maule Earthquake

<p>Most of the seismic hazard along subduction zones is posed by great tsunamigenic earthquakes associated with the interplate megathrust fault. However, crustal faults are ubiquitous along overriding continental plates, some of which have been triggered during recent megathrust earthquakes. In Chile, the 2010 Maule earthquake (M8.8) triggered a shallow M7 earthquake on the Pichilemu fault, which had not been mapped and was unknown. In fact, M~7 earthquakes have recently occurred along unknown faults in California and New Zealand, emphasizing the need for better and more detailed mapping initiatives. A first step towards a synoptic assessment of seismic hazards posed by continental faults at the national level is mapping at a homogeneous scale to allow for a systematic comparison of faults and fault systems. Here, we present the first map of active and potentially-active faults in Chile at 1:25,000 scale, which includes published studies and newly-identified faults. All the published faults have been re-mapped using LiDAR and TanDEM-X topography, where available. Using different scaling relations, we estimate the seismic potential of all crustal faults in Chile. For specific faults where we have conducted paleoseismic and tectonic geomorphic field studies (e.g., Liquiñe-Ofqui, El Yolki, Mesamavida, and Pichilemu faults) we provide new estimates of slip rate, recurrence interval, and deformation style. We propose a segmentation model of continental faults systems in Chile, which are associated with distinct morphotectonic units and have predominant kinematics and relatively uniform slip rates. Using stress transfer models, we explore the potential feedbacks between upper-plate deformation and the megathrust seismic cycle.</p>

scholarly journals The cryptic seismic potential of blind faults revealed by off-fault geomorphology, Pichilemu, Chile.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julius Jara-Muñoz ◽  
Daniel Melnick ◽  
Anne Socquet ◽  
Joaquin Cortés-Aranda ◽  
Dominik Brill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Diagnostic Features ◽  
Seismic Potential ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Marine Terraces ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Geomorphic Features

Abstract In seismically-active regions, mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence time is the first step to assess seismic hazards. Fault maps are commonly based on geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface; however, mapping blind faults and estimating their seismic potential is challenging because on-fault diagnostic features are absent. Here, we study the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a M7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests a partly-hidden blind fault. Using off-fault deformed marine terraces, we estimate a slip-rate of 0.42 ± 0.04 m/ka, which when integrated with deformation estimated from satellite geodesy during the 2010 earthquake suggests a 2.5 ± 0.25 ka recurrence time for M6.6-6.9 extensional earthquakes. We propose that extension is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes. Our results have implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along seismically-active coasts.

scholarly journals Geomorphic expression and slip rate of the Fairweather fault, southeast Alaska, and evidence for predecessors of the 1958 rupture

Geosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. Witter ◽  
Adrian M. Bender ◽  
Katherine M. Scharer ◽  
Christopher B. DuRoss ◽  
Peter J. Haeussler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Faults ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
Plate Boundaries ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Southeast Alaska ◽  
The Past ◽  
Show Evidence

Active traces of the southern Fairweather fault were revealed by light detection and ranging (lidar) and show evidence for transpressional deformation between North America and the Yakutat block in southeast Alaska. We map the Holocene geomorphic expression of tectonic deformation along the southern 30 km of the Fairweather fault, which ruptured in the 1958 moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake. Digital maps of surficial geology, geomorphology, and active faults illustrate both strike-slip and dip-slip deformation styles within a 10°–30° double restraining bend where the southern Fairweather fault steps offshore to the Queen Charlotte fault. We measure offset landforms along the fault and calibrate legacy 14C data to reassess the rate of Holocene strike-slip motion (≥49 mm/yr), which corroborates published estimates that place most of the plate boundary motion on the Fairweather fault. Our slip-rate estimates allow a component of oblique-reverse motion to be accommodated by contractional structures west of the Fairweather fault consistent with geodetic block models. Stratigraphic and structural relations in hand-dug excavations across two active fault strands provide an incomplete paleoseismic record including evidence for up to six surface ruptures in the past 5600 years, and at least two to four events in the past 810 years. The incomplete record suggests an earthquake recurrence interval of ≥270 years—much longer than intervals <100 years implied by published slip rates and expected earthquake displacements. Our paleoseismic observations and map of active traces of the southern Fairweather fault illustrate the complexity of transpressional deformation and seismic potential along one of Earth’s fastest strike-slip plate boundaries.

scholarly journals Sunda and Sumatra Block Motion in ITRF2008

2019 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Henri Kuncoro ◽  
Irwan Meilano ◽  
Susilo Susilo
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Field ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Terrestrial Reference Frame ◽  
Indian Plate ◽  
Philippine Sea Plate ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Australian Plate ◽  
Euler Pole

The Southeast Asia region is mostly surrounded by active subduction zones in which the Australian plate, the Indian plate, and the Philippine Sea plate submerges beneath the continental plates and blocks. The Sunda block covers the large part of the Southeast Asia region, which comprises of Indochina, the South China Sea, the northeastern part of Sumatra, Borneo, the northern part of Java, and the shallow seas in between. We collect the GPS data in the whole Southeast Asia region for the period from 1994 to 2016, and process the original carrier phase data of GPS using GAMIT/GLOBK 10.6 to obtain the velocity field in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame, ITRF2008. The velocity field thus obtained is utilized to update the Euler rotation parameters of the Sunda block in ITRF2008, and model the long-term slip rates between the adjacent plate and blocks. In this study, we model the Sunda block and the Sumatra block together with the Australian plate by using TDEFNODE. The estimated Euler pole parameters of the Sumatra and Sunda blocks are estimated as their locations at (37.4°S, 106.8°E) and (46.2°N, 89.4°W), respectively, and their angular velocities of 0.371°/Myr clockwise, and 0.327°/Myr counter clockwise, respectively. These parameters result in the slip rate of the Sumatra fault with magnitude of ~9 mm/yr.

scholarly journals Active faults sources for the Pátzcuaro–Acambay fault system (Mexico): fractal analysis of slip rates and magnitudes <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> estimated from fault length

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 3121-3135
Author(s):  
Avith Mendoza-Ponce ◽  
Angel Figueroa-Soto ◽  
Diana Soria-Caballero ◽  
Víctor Hugo Garduño-Monroy
Keyword(s):  
Time Domain ◽  
Fractal Analysis ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Spatial Domain ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Oblique Convergence ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Intrinsic Definition

Abstract. The Pátzcuaro–Acambay fault system (PAFS), located in the central part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), is delimited by an active transtensive deformation area associated with the oblique subduction zone between the Cocos and North American plates, with a convergence speed of 55 mm yr−1 at the latitude of the state of Michoacán, Mexico. Part of the oblique convergence is transferred to this fault system, where the slip rates range from 0.009 to 2.78 mm yr−1. This has caused historic earthquakes in Central Mexico, such as the Acambay quake (Ms=6.9) on 19 November 1912 with surface rupture, and another in Maravatío in 1979 with Ms=5.6. Also, paleoseismic analyses are showing Quaternary movements in some faults, with moderate to large magnitudes. Notably, this zone is seismically active, but lacks a dense local seismic network, and more importantly, its neotectonic movements have received very little attention. The present research encompasses three investigations carried out in the PAFS. First, the estimation of the maximum possible earthquake magnitudes, based on 316 fault lengths mapped on a 15 m digital elevation model, by means of three empirical relationships. In addition, the Hurst exponent Hw and its persistence, estimated for magnitudes Mw (spatial domain) and for 32 slip-rate data (time domain) by the wavelet variance analysis. Finally, the validity of the intrinsic definition of active fault proposed here. The average results for the estimation of the maximum and minimum magnitudes expected for this fault population are 5.5≤Mw≤7. Also, supported by the results of H at the spatial domain, this paper strongly suggests that the PAFS is classified in three different zones (western PAFS, central PAFS, and eastern PAFS) in terms of their roughness (Hw=0.7,Hw=0.5,Hw=0.8 respectively), showing different dynamics in seismotectonic activity and; the time domain, with a strong persistence Hw=0.949, suggests that the periodicities of slip rates are close in time (process with memory). The fractal capacity dimension (Db) is also estimated for the slip-rate series using the box-counting method. Inverse correlation between Db and low slip-rate concentration was observed. The resulting Db=1.86 is related to a lesser concentration of low slip-rates in the PAFS, suggesting that larger faults accommodate the strain more efficiently (length ≥3 km). Thus, in terms of fractal analysis, we can conclude that these 316 faults are seismically active, because they fulfill the intrinsic definition of active faults for the PAFS.

scholarly journals Seismicity clusters in Central Chile: investigating the role of repeating earthquakes and swarms in a subduction region

2020 ◽  
Vol 224 (3) ◽  
pp. 2028-2043
Author(s):  
Carla Valenzuela-Malebrán ◽  
Simone Cesca ◽  
Sergio Ruiz ◽  
Luigi Passarelli ◽  
Felipe Leyton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Moment Tensors ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Omori Law ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Moderate Seismicity ◽  
Maule Earthquake

SUMMARY Seismicity along subduction interfaces is usually dominated by large main-shock–aftershock sequences indicative of a continuum distribution of highly coupled large asperities. In the past decades, however, the increased resolution of seismic catalogues at some subduction zone seems to indicate instead a more complex rheological segmentation of the interface. Large and megathrust earthquake ruptures seem interspersed among regions of low seismic coupling and less stress buildup. In this weaker zone, the strain is primarily released via a combination of moderate-size swarm-like seismicity and aseismic slip. Along the Chilean subduction zone, the densification of the seismic network allowed for the identification of localized seismic clusters, some of them appearing in the form of swarms before megathrust earthquakes. The origin and driving processes of this seismic activity have not yet been identified. In this study, we follow a systematic approach to characterize the seismicity at two persistent clusters in Central Chile, one located offshore Navidad and one inland, at ∼40 km depth beneath Vichuquén, which occurred throughout ∼20 yr. We investigated these clusters, by deriving high-resolution hypocentral locations and moment tensors and performing a detailed analysis of spatio-temporal patterns, magnitude and interevent time distributions of the clustered earthquakes. Both clusters are characterized by weak to moderate seismicity (below Mw 6) and stand out as clear seismicity rate and Benioff strain anomalies. At the Navidad cluster, seismicity occurs in the form of swarms, with a characteristic duration of 2–7 d and location and thrust mechanisms compatible with activity on the slab interface. Conversely, we find at Vichuquén activity dominated by thrust earthquakes occurring as repeaters on the slab interface, with a slip rate of approximately ∼5.0 cm yr−1. We attribute these clusters to local features of the subducting plate: the Navidad swarms are likely driven by repeated high pore pressure transients along a pre-fractured patch of the slab, while the seismicity at the Vichuquén cluster is interpreted as the result of a subducting seamount. Both clusters have been active before and after the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake and persisted afterwards with the seismicity decay following the Omori law. These interactions are especially evident for the Vichuquén cluster, where the seismicity rate increased considerably after the Maule earthquake and continues to be an area of clearly elevated seismicity rate compared to its surroundings.

Enhancement of Interplate Coupling after Recent Megathrust Earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Yuzariyadi ◽  
Kosuke Heki
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
The North ◽  
Rupture Area ◽  
Interplate Coupling ◽  
Maule Earthquake ◽  
Megathrust Faults ◽  
Adjacent Segments ◽  
Gnss Data ◽  
Ne Japan

&lt;p&gt;Enhanced interplate coupling has been found for segments adjacent along-strike to megathrust faults after the 2003 Tokachi-Oki and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes, NE Japan, and was interpreted as acceleration of the subducting Pacific Plate slab. A similar enhanced coupling was also reported for the segments to the north of the rupture area of the 2010 Maule earthquake, central Chile. We utilize available GNSS data to find such enhanced coupling in worldwide subduction zones including NE Japan, central and northern Chile, Sumatra, and Mexico to investigate their common features. Our study revealed that the accelerations of landward movement of 2.1-9.0 mm per year appeared in adjacent segments following the 2014 Iquique (Chile), the 2007 Bengkulu (Sumatra), and the 2012 Oaxaca (Mexico) earthquakes. We also confirmed that the enhanced coupling is associated with the increase of seismicity for all these six cases. We found that the degree of enhancement depends on the length of the slab and the magnitude of the earthquake, which is consistent with the simple 2-dimensional model proposed earlier.&lt;/p&gt;

Kinematics of Subduction Processes during the Earthquake Cycle in Central Chile

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Aguirre ◽  
Klaus Bataille ◽  
Camila Novoa ◽  
Carlos Peña ◽  
Felipe Vera
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Convergent Margins ◽  
Earthquake Cycle ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Maule Earthquake ◽  
Kinematic Models ◽  
Inversion Techniques

ABSTRACT Subduction processes at convergent margins produce complex temporal and spatial crustal displacements during different periods of the earthquake cycle. Satellite geodesy observations provide important clues to constrain kinematic models at subduction zones. Here, we analyze geodetic observations in central Chile, where two large earthquakes occurred: 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule and 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. We propose a model that considers the motion along both interfaces of the brittle subducting slab as the sources responsible for the movement of the crust in the different periods of the earthquake cycle. Using standard inversion techniques, we provide a consistent framework of the kinematic displacement during each period of the earthquake cycle. We show that during the interseismic period prior to the Maule and Illapel earthquakes, two patches of slip rate on the lower interface are determined. These patches are located just below the future hypocenters. Because the interseismic period corresponds to the loading process and the coseismic to the unloading process, it is interesting to note that the area where loading is stronger corresponds to the area where unloading is also strong. Furthermore, we show that the Maule earthquake causes a significant displacement on the lower interface, just below the epicenter of the future Illapel earthquake to the north, a few years later. We speculate that the interaction between motions along both interfaces is the key to understanding the evolution of stress and the occurrence of earthquakes at subduction zones. This framework improves the understanding of the observed loading and unloading processes and potential triggering between subduction earthquakes.

scholarly journals Geologic and geodetic constraints on the seismic hazard of Malawi’s active faults: The Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (MSSD)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack N. Williams ◽  
Luke N. J. Wedmore ◽  
Åke Fagereng ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Hassan Mdala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Source Database ◽  
Seismogenic Sources ◽  
Seismogenic Source ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Seismic Reflector

Abstract. Active fault data are commonly used in seismic hazard assessments, but there are challenges in deriving the slip rate, geometry, and frequency of earthquakes along active faults. Herein, we present the open-access geospatial Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (MSSD), which describes the seismogenic properties of faults that have formed during East African rifting in Malawi. We first use empirical observations to geometrically classify active faults into section, fault, and multi-fault seismogenic sources. For sources in the North Basin of Lake Malawi, slip rates can be derived from the vertical offset of a seismic reflector that is estimated to be 75 ka based on dated core. Elsewhere, slip rates are constrained from advancing a ‘systems-based’ approach that partitions geodetically-derived rift extension rates in Malawi between seismogenic sources using a priori constraints on regional strain distribution in magma-poor continental rifts. Slip rates are then combined with source geometry and empirical scaling relationships to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals, and their uncertainty is described from the variability of outcomes from a logic tree used in these calculations. We find that for sources in the Lake Malawi’s North Basin, where slip rates can be derived from both the geodetic data and the offset seismic reflector, the slip rate estimates are within error of each other, although those from the offset reflector are higher. Sources in the MSSD are 5–200 km long, which implies that large magnitude (MW 7–8) earthquakes may occur in Malawi. Low slip rates (0.05–2 mm/yr), however, mean that the frequency of such events will be low (recurrence intervals ~103–104 years). The MSSD represents an important resource for investigating Malawi’s increasing seismic risks and provides a framework for incorporating active fault data into seismic hazard assessment in other tectonically active regions.

scholarly journals Keyboard Model of Seismic Cycle of Great Earthquakes in Subduction Zones: Simulation Results and Further Generalization

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 9350
Author(s):  
Leopold I. Lobkovsky ◽  
Irina S. Vladimirova ◽  
Yurii V. Gabsatarov ◽  
Dmitry A. Alekseev
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Direct Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Seismic Cycle ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Direct Interpretation ◽  
Maule Earthquake

Catastrophic megaearthquakes (M > 8) occurring in the subduction zones are among the most devastating hazards on the planet. In this paper we discuss the seismic cycles of the megathrust earthquakes and propose a blockwise geomechanical model explaining certain features of the stress-deformation cycle revealed in recent decades from seismological and satellite geodesy (GNSS) observations. Starting with an overview of the so-called keyboard model of the seismic cycle by L. Lobkovsky, we outline mathematical formalism describing the motion of seismogenic block system assuming viscous rheology beneath and between the neighboring elastic blocks sitting on top of the subducting slab. By summarizing the GNSS-based evidence from our previous studies concerning the transient motions associated with the 2006–2007 Simushir earthquakes, 2010 Maule earthquake, and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we demonstrate that those data support the keyboard model and reveal specific effect of the postseismic oceanward motion. However, since the seismogenic blocks in subduction systems are mostly located offshore, the direct analysis of GNSS-measured displacements and velocities is hardly possible in terms of the original keyboard model. Hence, the generalized two-segment keyboard model is introduced, containing both frontal offshore blocks and rear onshore blocks, which allows for direct interpretation of the onshore-collected GNSS data. We present a numerical computation scheme and a series of simulated data, which exhibits the consistency with measured motions and enables estimating the seismic cycle characteristics, important for the long-term earthquake forecasting.

scholarly journals Seismic source dynamics, heterogeneity and friction

1994 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Madariaga ◽  
A. Cochard
Keyword(s):  
Rise Time ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Direct Consequence ◽  
Fault Model ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Rate Dependent ◽  
Stress Heterogeneity

It has recently been proposed by several authors that stress distribution around active faults may become critical spontaneously. Other authors believe that heterogeneity is a permanent feature of fault planes. We test these ideas on a simple but realistic fault model in the presence of non-linear rate-dependent friction. We find that if friction increases with decreasing slip rate, slip becomes unstable at low slip rates generating supersonic healing phases that lock slip prematurely. Locking of slip in turn produces stress heterogeneity. For a fault model containing a single localized asperity, Das and Okubo found that rupture starts at the asperity and propagates until it either encounters a strong barrier or the stress intensity reduces below a minimum level. Rupture in these models is completely controlled by the physics of the rupture front. Rate dependent friction changes the behavior of the fault in a fundamental way: friction can lock the fault prematurely generating supersonic healing phases. Unlike stopping phases produced by barriers, a healing phase is not a wave phenomenon; it is a direct consequence of the non-linearity of friction. In this case rise time for slip on the fault is no longer controlled by the overall size of the fault as in conventional constant-friction crack models. We find that in our asperity models it is rise time or the healing mechanism that controls the final size of the fault. Studying models involving several isolated asperities we find that stress heterogeneity is preserved provided that friction is strongly rate dependent. Depending on the details of the rupture process, the final state of stress on the fault can be quite complex. This behavior is not universal, it depends on the degree of rate-dependence of friction.

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