Benefits of juvenile stand management in Finland—impacts on wood production based on scenario analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 458-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saija Huuskonen ◽  
Soili Haikarainen ◽  
Tiina Sauvula-Seppälä ◽  
Hannu Salminen ◽  
Mika Lehtonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
National Forest Inventory ◽  
Wood Production ◽  
Precommercial Thinning ◽  
Stem Size ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
Commercial Thinning ◽  
Level Information ◽  
The Cost

Abstract We evaluated the impacts of juvenile stand management on wood production based on a nationwide scenario analysis. Measured plot-level information of the Finnish 11th National Forest Inventory (NFI) from juvenile stands formed the initial data for the analysis. To represent a total of 2.5 million hectares of productive forest land available for wood production, 6900 sample plots were selected. We predicted the development of the sample-plot stands for the next 100 years using the Motti stand simulator. We examined the impacts of juvenile stand management, including early cleaning and precommercial thinning, with three scenarios of different intensities of early-stage management (intensive, no management and business-as-usual). The results showed the benefits of juvenile stand management: earlier harvesting revenues, larger total removals, more valuable wood in the removals, and additional benefits that are associated with the first commercial thinning (i.e. no need for clearing before thinning, a larger stem size of removed trees). The main downside of juvenile stand management was the cost of the early cleaning and precommercial thinning. According to the results, a €560 million increase in costs would result in a €1700 million increase in stumpage earnings in Finnish forests during the next 100-year period. The 34 million m3 increase in the sawlog yield together with 28 million m3 decrease in the pulpwood yield also demonstrated the nationwide potential for increasing valuable sawlog production by intensive management of juvenile stands.

scholarly journals Does Juvenile Stand Management Matter? Regional Scenarios of the Long-Term Effects on Wood Production

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Soili Haikarainen ◽  
Saija Huuskonen ◽  
Anssi Ahtikoski ◽  
Mika Lehtonen ◽  
Hannu Salminen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
High Growth ◽  
National Forest Inventory ◽  
High Growth Rate ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Wood Production ◽  
Short Delay ◽  
Stand Management

We analysed the regional level effects of juvenile stand management (early cleaning and precommercial thinning), shortly termed tending on wood production and the profitability of forest management. Altogether ca. 0.4 million hectares of juvenile stands from two significant forestry regions of Finland, South and North Savo, were examined. We used plot-level data of the 11th National Forest Inventory to represent the current status of juvenile stands in the study area, and the Motti stand simulator to predict the future developments of those stands for the next 100 years. We applied three scenarios: (i) Timely tending, (ii) delayed tending, and (iii) no tending, to examine differences between these alternative levels of juvenile stand management. The results showed the benefits of tending at a regional level. Timely tending was the most profitable option when low or modest interest rates (2–3%) were applied in the assessment. Even a short delay in tending clearly increased the tending costs. Delaying and neglecting tending resulted in significant losses, especially in sawlog removals and stumpage earnings. The financial gain from tending was the highest on fertile sites. Due to the high growth rate of trees, the situation may change very quickly on such sites. For the operational forestry, this means that fertile sites should have a high priority when conducting timely tendings.

Insights into Transdermal Drug Delivery: Approaches for Redressal of a Burgeoning Issue of Osteoporosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 1682-1695
Author(s):  
Foziyah Zakir ◽  
Kanchan Kohli ◽  
Farhan J. Ahmad ◽  
Zeenat Iqbal ◽  
Adil Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Drug Delivery ◽  
Transdermal Delivery ◽  
Oral Delivery ◽  
Calcium Absorption ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Osteoporotic Fractures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Systemic Delivery ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
The Cost

Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease that remains unnoticed until a fracture occurs. It is more predominant in the older age population, particularly in females due to reduced estrogen levels and ultimately limited calcium absorption. The cost burden of treating osteoporotic fractures is too high, therefore, primary focus should be treatment at an early stage. Most of the marketed drugs are available as oral delivery dosage forms. The complications, as well as patient non-compliance, limit the use of oral therapy for prolonged drug delivery. Transdermal delivery systems seem to be a promising approach for the delivery of anti-osteoporotic active moieties. One of the confronting barriers is the passage of drugs through the SC layers followed by penetration to deeper dermal layers. The review focuses on how anti-osteoporotic drugs can be molded through different approaches so that they can be exploited for the skin to systemic delivery. Insights into the various challenges in transdermal delivery and how the novel delivery system can be used to overcome these have also been detailed.

scholarly journals Methodology for the Concept Design of Locally Reinforced Composites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 7246
Author(s):  
Julius Moritz Berges ◽  
Georg Jacobs ◽  
Sebastian Stein ◽  
Jonathan Sprehe
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Structural Design ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Parameter Study ◽  
Great Effort ◽  
Concept Design ◽  
Cost Weight ◽  
Reinforced Plastics ◽  
Fiber Reinforced Plastics ◽  
The Cost

Locally load-optimized fiber-based composites, the so-called tailored textiles (TT), offer the potential to reduce weight and cost compared to conventional fiber-reinforced plastics (FRP). However, the design of TT has a higher complexity compared to FRP. Current approaches, focusing on solving this complexity for multiple objectives (cost, weight, stiffness), require great effort and calculation time, which makes them unsuitable for serial applications. Therefore, in this paper, an approach for the efficient creation of simplified TT concept designs is presented. By combining simplified models for structural design and cost estimation, the most promising concepts, regarding the cost, weight, and stiffness of TT parts, can be identified. By performing a parameter study, the cost, weight, and stiffness optima of a sample part compared to a conventional FRP component can be determined. The cost and weight were reduced by 30% for the same stiffness. Applying this approach at an early stage of product development reduces the initial complexity of the subsequent detailed engineering design, e.g., by applying methods from the state of the art.

scholarly journals Grid Parity Analysis of China’s Centralized Photovoltaic Generation under Multiple Uncertainties

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1814
Author(s):  
Libo Zhang ◽  
Qian Du ◽  
Dequn Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Grid Parity ◽  
Industry Environment ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Generation Costs ◽  
Time Price ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Installed Capacity

The cost of centralized photovoltaic (CPV) power generation has been decreasing rapidly in China. However, the achievement of grid parity is full of uncertainties due to changes in policies and the industry environment. In order to explore the time, price, and external conditions in which grid parity can be achieved, we create the improved grey GM (1, 1) model to estimate the installed capacity over the next 10 years, and apply a learning curve to predict the cost of CPV generation. In the analysis of grid parity, we compare the benchmark price of coal power and the price under the market-oriented mechanism with CPV. The results show that China’s CPV industry will enter the early stage of maturity from 2020 onwards; with the help of benchmark investment, the grid parity of CPV may be achieved in 2022 at the earliest and 2025 at the latest. After 2025, the photovoltaic electricity price will be generally lower than the coal electricity price under marketization. By 2030, CPV power generation costs will reach US $0.05/kWh, the accumulative installed capacity will exceed 370 GW, and the uncertainties will lead to a cumulative installed gap of nearly 100 GW.

scholarly journals Can Financial Economics Cure Cancer?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Lo
Keyword(s):  
High Throughput Screening ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Genome Project ◽  
Gene Therapies ◽  
Biomedical Innovation ◽  
New Business ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Human Genome Project

AbstractFunding for early-stage biomedical innovation has become more difficult to secure at the same time that medical breakthroughs seem to be occurring at ever increasing rates. One explanation for this counterintuitive trend is that increasing scientific knowledge can actually lead to greater economic risk for investors in the life sciences. While the Human Genome Project, high-throughput screening, genetic biomarkers, immunotherapies, and gene therapies have made a tremendously positive impact on biomedical research and, consequently, patient lives, they have also increased the cost and complexity of the drug development process, causing many investors to shift their assets to more attractive investment opportunities. This suggests that new business models and financing strategies can be used to reduce the risk and increase the attractiveness of biomedical innovation so as to bring new and better therapies to patients faster.

scholarly journals Reoperation costs in attempted breast-conserving surgery: a decision analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 314 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Pataky ◽  
C.R. Baliski
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Breast Reconstruction ◽  
Patient Care ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Breast Conserving Surgery ◽  
Reoperation Rate ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Care System

Background Breast-conserving surgery (bcs) is the preferred surgical approach for most patients with early-stage breast cancer. Frequently, concerns arise about the pathologic margin status, resulting in an average reoperation rate of 23% in Canada. No consensus has been reached about the ideal reoperation rate, although 10% has been suggested as a target. Upon undergoing reoperation, many patients choose mastectomy and breast reconstruction, which add to the morbidity and cost of patient care. We attempted to identify the cost of reoperation after bcs, and the effect that a reduction in the reoperation rate could have on the B.C. health care system.Methods A decision tree was constructed to estimate the average cost per patient undergoing initial bcs with two reoperation frequency scenarios: 23% and 10%. The model included the direct medical costs from the perspective of the B.C. health care system for the most common surgical treatment options, including breast reconstruction and postoperative radiation therapy.Results Costs ranged from a low of $8,225 per patient with definitive bcs [95% confidence interval (ci): $8,061 to $8,383] to a high of $26,026 for reoperation with mastectomy and delayed reconstruction (95% ci: $23,991 to $28,122). If the reoperation rate could be reduced to 10%, the average saving would be $1,055 per patient undergoing attempted bcs (95% ci: $959 to $1,156). If the lower rate were to be achieved in British Columbia, it would translate into a savings of $1.9 million annually.Summary The implementation of initiatives to reduce reoperation after bcs could result in significant savings to the health care system, while potentially improving the quality of patient care.

scholarly journals A simulation to identify the optimal area to survey in the early stage of invasion by Solenopsis invicta

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shumpei Hisamoto ◽  
Koichi Goka ◽  
Yoshiko Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Survey Area ◽  
Single Colony ◽  
The Status ◽  
Optimal Area ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Efforts to eradicate invasive alien species commonly use simulations to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys. Although eradication of Solenopsis invicta in the early stages of an invasion is important, few simulations are available to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys when a single colony has been detected. In the case of S. invicta, it is difficult to determine from the status of the detected colony whether new queens have dispersed, so it is necessary to consider dispersal as a probabilistic event and calculate its probability. We therefore first constructed a mathematical model in which we used Bayesian statistics to estimate the probability of dispersal as a function of the results of the survey. This mathematical model revealed that the efficacy of the survey and the associated cost differed greatly between cases depending on whether dispersal was or was not confirmed. Next, we developed a simulation that incorporated this mathematical model to inform the determination of the survey area when a single colony had been detected. The simulation showed how ecological parameters and geographical information could be used to identify an efficacious survey area, even in heterogeneous landscapes such as international ports where invasions occur sporadically. Finally, we used this simulation to assess the efficacy of a survey in the case of an S. invicta outbreak at the Port of Tokyo, Japan. The results suggested that the survey covered a sufficiently wide area but that it could have been designed in a more efficacious manner.

scholarly journals A novel economic-filter for evaluating sub-Saharan diamondiferous kimberlites

2020 ◽  
Vol 120 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Leach ◽  
B.P. von der Heyden ◽  
P. Ravenscroft
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Filter Approach ◽  
Geological Complexity ◽  
The Cost

SYNOPSIS Because of their high degree of geological complexity, kimberlite-hosted diamond deposits are exceedingly difficult to evaluate for economic viability. Accordingly, standard mineral asset evaluation protocols (e.g., the Cost-, Market-, and Income Approaches defined in the SAMREC Code) may not hold sufficient predictive abilities for these deposit types, especially at the early stages of exploration. Here we present a novel tool, a cost filter approach towards preliminary evaluation of economic viability of southern African kimberlite-hosted diamond deposits, using the AK6 and BK11 diamond deposits from the Orapa diamond field as case studies. The development of this cost filter is underpinned by elements of both the Market Approach (i.e., comparisons to similar deposits) and the Income Approach (i.e., use of net present value (NPV) calculations) for mineral asset evaluation. Importantly, the cost filter is constrained through modification of only two primary variables (the average diamond value and the diamond grade) and thus differs significantly from other cost filters that rely on estimation and assumptions for every parameter input into an NPV calculation. The cost filter correctly predicts the sub-economic status of the BK11 diamond pipe, and is thus presented as a useful geo-economic tool for early stage kimberlite evaluation within the local southern African context. The approach and its theoretical underpinning foreseeably hold vast potential for use in the economic evaluation of other ore commodities, particularly where socio-economic and political risk factors can be negated by employing a geographic constraint. Keywords: diamond, economic viability, kimberlites, southern Africa, cost models filter.

scholarly journals Screening of apple genotypes with the columnar growth habit using control markers

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 03007
Author(s):  
Natalia Saveleva ◽  
Alexander Lyzhin ◽  
Andrey Yushkov ◽  
Alexander Zemisov ◽  
Nadezhda Borzykh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Habit ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Commercial Production ◽  
Juvenile Stage ◽  
Juvenile Period ◽  
Columnar Growth ◽  
Apple Cultivars ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Modern Breeding

One of the approaches to intensify horticulture is to introduce cultivars with an unusual canopy into commercial production. Such plants can be columnar Apple trees. In modern breeding, there is a trend to create cultivars with a compact canopy. In such orchards, it is reduced to a minimum the cost for pruning, harvesting, and protection against pest and disease, which are the main expenses in apple orchards with a traditional canopy. The use of molecular markers linked to columnar growth habit allows us to identify a physiological sign at an early stage of growth: in the juvenile period. The assessment of apple cultivars and hybrids was carried out at the I. V. Michurin Federal Scientific Centre in 2015-2018. Four markers were used in the research: Mdo. chr 10.12, C18470-25831, 29f1, and jwlr to identify plants with the columnar growth habit gene (Co). The use of various DNA markers made it possible to establish that not all of them are well linked to the Co gene. In the research process, primers were identified for markers 29f1 and jwlr, which reliably allowed us to identify plants with columnar growth habit at the juvenile stage, which will significantly reduce the breeding process.

NEURAL NETWORK METHODS FOR PLANAR IMAGE ANALYSIS IN AUTOMATED SCREENING SYSTEMS

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-79
Author(s):  
Borys Igorovych Tymchenko
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Semantic Segmentation ◽  
Input Image ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Classification Task ◽  
Automated Screening ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Screening Systems

Nowadays, means of preventive management in various spheres of human life are actively developing. The task of automated screening is to detect hidden problems at an early stage without human intervention, while the cost of responding to them is low. Visual inspection is often used to perform a screening task. Deep artificial neural networks are especially popular in image processing. One of the main problems when working with them is the need for a large amount of well-labeled data for training. In automated screening systems, available neural network approaches have limitations on the reliability of predictions due to the lack of accurately marked training data, as obtaining quality markup from professionals is very expensive, and sometimes not possible in principle. Therefore, there is a contradiction between increasing the requirements for the precision of predictions of neural network models without increasing the time spent on the one hand, and the need to reduce the cost of obtaining the markup of educational data. In this paper, we propose the parametric model of the segmentation dataset, which can be used to generate training data for model selection and benchmarking; and the multi-task learning method for training and inference of deep neural networks for semantic segmentation. Based on the proposed method, we develop a semi-supervised approach for segmentation of salient regions for classification task. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it uses semantically-similar general tasks, that have better labeling than original one, what allows users to reduce the cost of the labeling process. We propose to use classification task as a more general to the problem of semantic segmentation. As semantic segmentation aims to classify each pixel in the input image, classification aims to assign a class to all of the pixels in the input image. We evaluate our methods using the proposed dataset model, observing the Dice score improvement by seventeen percent. Additionally, we evaluate the robustness of the proposed method to different amount of the noise in labels and observe consistent improvement over baseline version.

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