Evidence from the Historical Record

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-114
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
The Core ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Special Circumstances ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Significant Support ◽  
Nuclear Reversal

This chapter provides a series of quantitative, large-n analyses of nuclear reversal that test the core propositions and hypotheses derived in Chapter 2. It expands on existing work to systematically examine all states that engaged in nuclear weapons activity. It overviews the data on rewards (political, military, or economic) and punishments (economic or military) for analysis. It presents several statistical tests of the six hypotheses derived in Chapter 2. Using a time-series panel study that incorporates a variety of model specifications examining the impact of inducements on nuclear reversal, it finds significant support for the theoretical framework introduced earlier. Further, it finds support for the probabilistic conditions that examines special circumstances of leadership change and nuclear reversal among allies and adversaries. Appendix 3.1 presents a battery of robustness checks to provide additional support for the findings.

Theory of Nuclear Reversal

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-59
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Empirical Testing ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nuclear Reversal

This chapter presents the core theoretical framework in this study: an analysis of nuclear reversal at the systemic level and the conditions under which the international community is able to induce a proliferator to abandon a nascent nuclear program. Specifically, it introduces a novel theoretical approach that highlights the necessity to negotiate with both positive and negative inducements in the shadow of military force. In addition to including the core hypotheses for empirical testing, it includes a discussion of probabilistic conditions to help examine a broader set of proliferation cases. These conditions include the impact of leadership change on the association between inducements and nuclear reversal, as well as how a proliferator’s relationship with the United States influences the likelihood of nuclear reversal. It concludes with potential limitations and overarching policy implications of the framework.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Attendance Modality on the Learning Performance of a Course on Machines and Mechanisms Theory

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 558
Author(s):  
David Valiente ◽  
Héctor Campello-Vicente ◽  
Emilio Velasco-Sánchez ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Mas ◽  
Nuria Campillo-Davo
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Group Testing ◽  
Test Group ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Team Work ◽  
University Education ◽  
Learning Performance ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Impact

University education approaches related to the field of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), have generally particularized on teaching activity and learning programs which are commonly understood as reoriented lessons that fuse theoretic concepts interweaved with practical activities. In this context, team work has been widely acknowledged as a means to conduct practical and hands-on lessons, and has been revealed to be successful in the achievement of exercise resolution and design tasks. Besides this, methodologies sustained by ICT resources such as online or blended approaches, have also reported numerous benefits for students’ active learning. However, such benefits have to be fully validated within the particular teaching context, which may facilitate student achievement to a greater or lesser extent. In this work, we analyze the impact of attendance modalities on the learning performance of a STEM-related course on “Machines and Mechanisms Theory”, in which practical lessons are tackled through a team work approach. The validity of the results is reinforced by group testing and statistical tests with a sample of 128 participants. Students were arranged in a test group (online attendance) and in a control group (face-to-face attendance) to proceed with team work during the practical lessons. Thus, the efficacy of distance and in situ methodologies is compared. Moreover, additional variables have also been compared according to the historical record of the course, in regards to previous academic years. Finally, students’ insights about the collaborative side of this program, self-knowledge and satisfaction with the proposal have also been reported by a custom questionnaire. The results demonstrate greater performance and satisfaction amongst participants in the face-to-face modality. Such a modality is prooven to be statistically significant for the final achievement of students in detriment to online attendance.

Success and Failure in Nuclear Reversal

2020 ◽  
pp. 115-129
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Proliferation ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Reversal Process ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nuclear Reversal

To better understand the impact of inducements and to get a broader sense of the process of nuclear reversal, this chapter presents two vignettes of nuclear proliferation: the critical cases of Libya and China. These analyses help isolate core distinctions from the historical record: nuclear reversers from the current proliferators, allies from adversaries, those that tried and succeeded decades ago, and those that remained committed for decades with a failing nuclear program and ultimately abandoned it. These illustrative vignettes of success and failure help to delve deeper into the nuclear reversal process. This chapter provides a better understanding of how states embark on and are incentivized to end their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Soziale Disziplinierung im flexiblen Kapitalismus

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (136) ◽  
pp. 339-356
Author(s):  
Tobias Wölfle ◽  
Oliver Schöller
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Social Rights ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Capitalist Development ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Municipal Level

Under the term “Hilfe zur Arbeit” (aid for work) the federal law of social welfare subsumes all kinds of labour disciplining instruments. First, the paper shows the historical connection of welfare and labour disciplining mechanisms in the context of different periods within capitalist development. In a second step, against the background of historical experiences, we will analyse the trends of “Hilfe zur Arbeit” during the past two decades. It will be shown that by the rise of unemployment, the impact of labour disciplining aspects of “Hilfe zur Arbeit” has increased both on the federal and on the municipal level. For this reason the leverage of the liberal paradigm would take place even in the core of social rights.

An influence of social isolation on the level of physical activity as well as on well-being and mental state of people during the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (4) ◽  
pp. 127-131
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Parfin ◽  
Krystian Wdowiak ◽  
Marzena Furtak-Niczyporuk ◽  
Jolanta Herda
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Tract Infections ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroduction. The COVID-19 is the name of an infectious disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2). It was first diagnosed in December 2019 in patients in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. The symptoms are dominated by features of respiratory tract infections, in some patients with a very severe course leading to respiratory failure and, in extreme cases to death. Due to the spread of the infection worldwide, the WHO declared a pandemic in March 2020.Aim. An investigation of the impact of social isolation introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic on selected aspects of life. The researchers focused on observing changes in habits related to physical activity and their connections with people’s subjective well-being and emotional state.Material and methods. The study was carried out within the international project of the group „IRG on COVID and exercise”. The research tool was a standardized questionnaire.Results. Based on the data collected and the analysis of the percentage results, it can be observed that the overwhelming majority of people taking up physical activity reported a better mood during the pandemic. However, statistical tests do not confirm these relationships due to the small sample size.Conclusions. Isolation favours physical activity. Future, in-depth studies, by enlarging the population group, are necessary to confirm the above observations.

Citizen Deliberation Online

2019 ◽  
pp. 689-712
Author(s):  
Patrícia Rossini ◽  
Jennifer Stromer-Galley
Keyword(s):  
Political Engagement ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
The Core ◽  
Political Conversation ◽  
Political Talk ◽  
Citizen Deliberation ◽  
The Impact

Political conversation is at the heart of democratic societies, and it is an important precursor of political engagement. As society has become intertwined with the communication infrastructure of the Internet, we need to understand its uses and the implications of those uses for democracy. This chapter provides an overview of the core topics of scholarly concern around online citizen deliberation, focusing on three key areas of research: the standards of quality of communication and the normative stance on citizen deliberation online; the impact and importance of digital platforms in structuring political talk; and the differences between formal and informal political talk spaces. After providing a critical review of these three major areas of research, we outline directions for future research on online citizen deliberation.

scholarly journals Reply to “Comment on ‘The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity’”

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Lewis ◽  
Judith Curry
Keyword(s):  
Time Windows ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractCowtan and Jacobs assert that the method used by Lewis and Curry in 2018 (LC18) to estimate the climate system’s transient climate response (TCR) from changes between two time windows is less robust—in particular against sea surface temperature bias correction uncertainty—than a method that uses the entire historical record. We demonstrate that TCR estimated using all data from the temperature record is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows, as is the median TCR estimate using all pairs of individual years. We also show that the median TCR estimate from all pairs of decade-plus-length windows is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows and that incorporating window selection uncertainty would make little difference to total uncertainty in TCR estimation. We find that, when differences in the evolution of forcing are accounted for, the relationship over time between warming in CMIP5 models and observations is consistent with the relationship between CMIP5 TCR and LC18’s TCR estimate but fluctuates as a result of multidecadal internal variability and volcanism. We also show that various other matters raised by Cowtan and Jacobs have negligible implications for TCR estimation in LC18.

Static and dynamic response of sandwich beams with lattice and pantographic cores

2021 ◽  
pp. 109963622110338
Author(s):  
Yury Solyaev ◽  
Arseniy Babaytsev ◽  
Anastasia Ustenko ◽  
Andrey Ripetskiy ◽  
Alexander Volkov
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Performance ◽  
Lattice Structure ◽  
Unit Length ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Plane Geometry ◽  
Sandwich Beams ◽  
Static Tests ◽  
Three Point Bending ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Impact

Mechanical performance of 3d-printed polyamide sandwich beams with different type of the lattice cores is investigated. Four variants of the beams are considered, which differ in the type of connections between the elements in the lattice structure of the core. We consider the pantographic-type lattices formed by the two families of inclined beams placed with small offset and connected by stiff joints (variant 1), by hinges (variant 2) and made without joints (variant 3). The fourth type of the core has the standard plane geometry formed by the intersected beams lying in the same plane (variant 4). Experimental tests were performed for the localized indentation loading according to the three-point bending scheme with small span-to-thickness ratio. From the experiments we found that the plane geometry of variant 4 has the highest rigidity and the highest load bearing capacity in the static tests. However, other three variants of the pantographic-type cores (1–3) demonstrate the better performance under the impact loading. The impact strength of such structures are in 3.5–5 times higher than those one of variant 4 with almost the same mass per unit length. This result is validated by using numerical simulations and explained by the decrease of the stress concentration and the stress state triaxiality and also by the delocalization effects that arise in the pantographic-type cores.

Comparative crosstalk performance analysis of different configurations of heterogeneous multicore fiber

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umar Farooque ◽  
Rakesh Ranjan
Keyword(s):  
Refractive Index ◽  
Mode Coupling ◽  
The Other ◽  
Heterogeneous Multicore ◽  
Coupled Mode ◽  
The Core ◽  
Bending Radius ◽  
Multicore Fiber ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Core Pitch

AbstractIn order to select the heterogeneous multicore fiber (MCF) configuration with ultra-low crosstalk and low peak bending radius, comparative crosstalk analysis have been done for the three possible core configurations, namely, Configuration 1 - different refractive index (R.I.) and different radius, Configuration 2 - different R.I., and Configuration 3 - different radius. Using the coupled mode equation and the simplified expressions of mode coupling coefficient (MCC) for different configurations of heterogeneous cores, the crosstalk performance of all the heterogeneous MCF configurations along with the homogeneous MCF have been investigated analytically with respect to core pitch (D) and fiber bending radius (${R}_{b}$). Further, these expressions of MCC have been extended to obtain the simplified expressions of MCC for the estimation of crosstalk levels in respective trench-assisted (TA) heterogeneous MCF configurations. It is observed from the analysis that in Configuration 1, crosstalk level is lowest and the rate of decrease in the crosstalk with respect to the core pitch is highest compared to the other configurations of heterogeneous MCF. The values of crosstalk obtained analytically have been validated by comparing it with the values obtained from finite element method (FEM) based numerical simulation results. Further, we have investigated the impact of a fixed percent change (5%) in the core parameters (radius and/or R.I.) of one of the core of a homogeneous MCF, to realize the different heterogeneous MCF configurations, on the variations in crosstalk levels, difference in the mode effective refractive index of the core 1 and core 2 ($\Delta {n}_{eff}={n}_{eff1}-{n}_{eff2}$), and the peak bending radius (${R}_{pk}$). For the same percent variations (5%) in the core parameters (radius and/or R.I.) of different configurations of cores (Config. 1-Config. 3), Config. 1 MCF has highest variation in $\Delta {n}_{eff}$ value compared to other configurations of MCF. Further, this highest variation in $\Delta {n}_{eff}$ value of Config. 1 MCF results in smallest peak bending radius. The smaller value of peak bending radius allows MCF to bend into smaller radius. Therefore, Configuration 1 is the potential choice for the design of MCF with smaller peak bending radius and ultra-low crosstalk level compared to the other configurations of SI-heterogeneous MCF.

scholarly journals Exploring Residents’ Perceptions of the Socio-Cultural Benefits of Tourism Development in the Mountain Area

Societies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Iulia C. Muresan ◽  
Rezhen Harun ◽  
Felix H. Arion ◽  
Ava Omar Fatah ◽  
Diana E. Dumitras
Keyword(s):  
Positive Attitude ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Sustainable Tourism Development ◽  
The Impact

Development of tourism affected the socio-cultural environment of many destinations. Previous studies have focused more on analyzing the impact of tourism on all three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environment and socio-cultural); therefore, the present paper examines tourism development’s impact with regard to the socio-cultural benefits that enhance sustainable tourism development. A survey based on a questionnaire was employed in June 2018 in a mountain village in Cluj County, Romania. The collected data were analyzed using principal component analysis, and several statistical tests were conducted. The results indicated that the respondents have a positive attitude towards tourism development and socio-cultural perceived benefits. Older people and those running a business tend to perceive more positively the benefits of tourism development. The findings of the research could contribute to future development strategies, as it is well known that supporting local communities influences the success of tourism destination.

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