scholarly journals The future of oil supply

2014 ◽  
Vol 372 (2006) ◽  
pp. 20130179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Miller ◽  
Steven R. Sorrell
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Peak Oil ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Conventional Oil

Abundant supplies of oil form the foundation of modern industrial economies, but the capacity to maintain and grow global supply is attracting increasing concern. Some commentators forecast a peak in the near future and a subsequent terminal decline in global oil production, while others highlight the recent growth in ‘tight oil’ production and the scope for developing unconventional resources. There are disagreements over the size, cost and recoverability of different resources, the technical and economic potential of different technologies, the contribution of different factors to market trends and the economic implications of reduced supply. Few debates are more important, more contentious, more wide-ranging or more confused. This paper summarizes the main concepts, terms, issues and evidence that are necessary to understand the ‘peak oil’ debate. These include: the origin, nature and classification of oil resources; the trends in oil production and discoveries; the typical production profiles of oil fields, basins and producing regions; the mechanisms underlying those profiles; the extent of depletion of conventional oil; the risk of an approaching peak in global production; and the potential of various mitigation options. The aim is to introduce the subject to non-specialist readers and provide a basis for the subsequent papers in this Theme Issue.

Structure and Assessment of the Oil Potential of Carbonaceous Carbonate-Siliceous Domanik Deposits in the Volga–Ural Oil and Gas Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (08) ◽  
pp. 929-946
Author(s):  
N.K. Fortunatova ◽  
A.I. Varlamov ◽  
A.S. Kanev ◽  
V.I. Poroskun ◽  
A.V. Baranova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Well Logging ◽  
Seismic Survey ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Materials Used ◽  
Stratigraphic Interval

Abstract —The paper considers the regularities in the structure and conditions of formation of Domanik carbonaceous carbonate-siliceous productive deposits. They are shown to occur in the stratigraphic interval from middle Frasnian to upper Famennian. The highly persistent structure of their sections for many kilometers within specific sedimentation zones and the drastic changes in the structure at the boundaries of the zones are justified. Lithological classification of rocks is considered. Methods and results of combined paleontological, lithological, geochemical, and petrophysical core studies are presented, as well as interpretation of well logging data and seismic-survey materials used in the assessment of oil resources and identification of oil- and gas-promising zones and areas. The conducted studies have proved significant oil resources in the Domanik productive sequence; their extraction might compensate for the decline in oil production from conventional pools.

Organizational and Economic Problems of Enhanced Oil Recovery in Russian Fields

2007 ◽  
pp. 123-133
Author(s):  
D. Ramazanov
Keyword(s):  
Enhanced Oil Recovery ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Hydrocarbon Exploration ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Strategy Of Development ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Industry

Modern conditions and problems of development of the oil-production industry in Russia are considered in article. It is shown that the present structure of oil resources will not provide oil production according to estimates of the Energy Strategy to 2020. The program of increasing hydrocarbon exploration for oil fields and provinces accepted by the Ministry of Natural Resources of RF due to inefficient state regulation is lagging behind the schedule. We suggest that the federal program on introduction of modern enhanced oil recovery methods providing both the growth of oil production in the nearest 5-15 years and more efficient use of oil resources through increase of oil extraction ratio be accepted as an alternative strategy of development of oil production. The US experience of effective resources using and its applicability for the Russian oil-production industry are also considered in the article.

scholarly journals An autonomous car – a vision of the near future

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-44
Author(s):  
Marta Magda Wieliczko
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
The Third ◽  
Car Crash ◽  
Autonomous Cars ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Car Crashes ◽  
Near Future

The article presents the main issues connected to autonomous cars, especially a vision for the near future. The theme was divided into four parts. The first part of the paper presents the statistics of car crashes in Poland. It describes also the number of registered vehicles in the country and the trend of car crashes in the period 2008–2017. The second part defines the autonomous cars. Six levels of classification of autonomous vehicles are presented and described. The vehicles of Waymo and Tesla are described in details, taking into consideration also BMW and Mercedes cars. The third part deals with the subject of autonomous cars in Poland. The first deadly car crash caused by the autonomous car is also mentioned. The last part presents the advantages and disadvantages of autonomous vehicles.

scholarly journals Prediction of Oil Depletion in Ghana Based on Hubbert’s Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 325-331
Author(s):  
Dennis Nchor ◽  
Václav Klepáč
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Growth Parameter ◽  
Nonlinear Least Squares ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Peak Oil ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Total Oil

This study seeks to fulfil four specific tasks: to predict the year of peak oil production in Ghana, to estimate the quantity that will be produced at this peak point, to investigate the year of total oil depletion and last but not the least is to assess the total recoverable oil resources at the point of depletion. The study applied Hubbert’s model of oil production and depletion. There was however modification to the approach in that Nonlinear Least Squares were used to estimate the logistic growth parameter instead of linear regression techniques. The modification was due to the fact that the historical data of oil production in Ghana did not follow a linear trend. The study acknowledges the influence of technology, economic, and political factors in the shorter time scales but hypothesizes that the amount of recoverable oil resources dominates all other factors in the long run. Hence the focus was placed on physical or geological constraints. The study results show that peak production in Ghana will occur in 2022. A maximum of about 100 million barrels will be produced per year though currently the annual production is about 40 million barrels. The predicted logistic curve also shows that total oil will be depleted by 2060. Ghana has total recoverable oil resources of about 1.8 billion. The data for the study was obtained from the U.S Energy Information Administration covers the period of production from 1992 to 2014.

Managing limited subsurface data in a mature oil field case study: extending the production lifetime of a 50-year-old oil field in Indonesia: Rantau oil field Waterflood Pilot Project

2013 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 489
Author(s):  
Reza Ardianto
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Water Flooding ◽  
Peak Oil ◽  
Screening Criteria ◽  
The Government

Business management of oil and gas in Pertamina State Oil enterprises was handed to one of its subsidiaries: Pertamina EP (PEP). With a vast working area of 140,000 km2, it consists of 214 fields where 80% is an old field (mature field or brown field). Most of these oil fields were discovered during Dutch colonialism. One of these fields was Rantau oil field, discovered in 1928; it is considered one of potential structure at the time. Peak oil production was achieved at 31,711 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) (wc 17.2%) in 1969, and it is still producing 2,500 BOPD from primary stage.To get better recovery from the Rantau oil field, it is necessary to identify the potential of secondary recovery water-flooding. Some screening criteria had been completed to select an appropriate method that could be applied in the Rantau field. PEP is preparing an Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) program to be applied in some oil fields with subsurface and surface potential consideration. The implementation was initiated by the EOR Department at PEP. The issue of the national oil production increasing program from the government has to be realised by the EOR Department at Pertamina EP. Following the national oil increasing program, management of PEP urged to increase oil production in a rapid and realistic way. As a result, the program of secondary and tertiary recovery pilot project should be conducted simultaneously by the EOR Department on some of the fields that have passed their peak. On the other hand, PEP has only limited geology, geophysics, reservoir, and production (GGRP) data, and most of the oil fields have been producing since 1930s. The conditions that have to be dealt with are as follows: production from the existing field is declining, data is collected and interpreted during a long period, huge amounts of production data, and reservoir model and simulation do not exist and are not frequently updated. Based on this, the planning of EOR struggled due to length of time needed versus the need for quick development. It has become much more of a challenge for the team consisting of integrated geophysics, geology, reservoir, production, process facility, project management and economic evaluation. This extended abstract presents the term of managing limited GGRP data that contributes to the successful pilot waterflood project in the Rantau field. It also explains the uses of limited subsurface GGRP data to overcome the uncertainty for planning of the waterflood pilot project in the Rantau field, as a part of planning using limited data.

scholarly journals Fermi's paradox: The last challenge for copernicanism?

2009 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.M. Cirkovic
Keyword(s):  
Review Paper ◽  
Selection Effects ◽  
Simple Analysis ◽  
New Classification ◽  
Crucial Problem ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Major Review ◽  
Observation Selection ◽  
Near Future

We review Fermi's paradox (or the 'Great Silence' problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already more than three quarters of century old puzzle and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built in various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on the balance, the strongest justification to optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

scholarly journals The legal issues of the substantiation of new types of national security

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-72
Author(s):  
Anna K. Rozhkova ◽  
Irena V. Kochetkova
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Legal Aspects ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Philosophy And Religion ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Near Future

The subject of the article is the typology of national security, and controversial issues of the selection. The purpose of the article is to identify causes of a large number of security’s forms both in theory and in practice, also to analyze acts in this sphere. The methodology of the article includes analysis, synthesis, formal-legal and comparativelegal methods. The main results of the research. The author focuses on the problem of types of national security. The author investigates the national security and methodological, theoretical and legal aspects of the classification of national security’s forms. The reason for the diversity of types of national security should also be recognized as the lack of a clear classification of them. Author investigates the mechanism for detaching forms of national security in acts of the Russian Federation in the field of security and suggests that new forms of nation security (moral security and culture security) should appear in base document of strategic planning of the national security. Moral security includes cultural, ideological, informational, psychological, scientific, educational, and religious security. Cultural security in its most general form is the stable existence of culture, the protection of this sphere from internal and external threats, for example, such as the emasculation of spiritual and moral values and globalization. Conclusions. The identification of new types of national security is an objective process due to the very versatility of such a phenomenon as national security. At the same time, it should be recognized that the sphere of spirit and morality in the context of spiritual security does not belong to the legal science, but rather to the field of philosophy and religion. In this regard, their inclusion, even as an adjective, in the text of the strategic planning document raises doubts, so the use of the phrase "moral security" in legal acts in the near future, in our opinion, can hardly be expected.

MANAGEMENT OF THE SUCCESS OF STUDENT’S LEARNING BASED ON THE MARKOV MODEL

2018 ◽  
pp. 4-11
Author(s):  
M. V. Noskov ◽  
M. V. Somova ◽  
I. M. Fedotova
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Markov Process ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Automated Information System ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The University ◽  
Independent Work ◽  
Near Future

The article proposes a model for forecasting the success of student’s learning. The model is a Markov process with continuous time, such as the process of “death and reproduction”. As the parameters of the process, the intensities of the processes of obtaining and assimilating information are offered, and the intensity of the process of assimilating information takes into account the attitude of the student to the subject being studied. As a result of applying the model, it is possible for each student to determine the probability of a given formation of ownership of the material being studied in the near future. Thus, in the presence of an automated information system of the university, the implementation of the model is an element of the decision support system by all participants in the educational process. The examples given in the article are the results of an experiment conducted at the Institute of Space and Information Technologies of Siberian Federal University under conditions of blended learning, that is, under conditions when classroom work is accompanied by independent work with electronic resources.

Vegetation on technogenic habitats in the far-north taiga and south forest-tundra of the European North-East of Russia. Alliance Chamerio angustifolii–Matricarion hookeri A. Ishbirdin et al. 1996

2019 ◽  
pp. 77-94
Author(s):  
I. A. Likhanova ◽  
G. S. Shushpannikova ◽  
L. P. Turubanova
Keyword(s):  
Komi Republic ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Soil Enrichment ◽  
Far North ◽  
North East ◽  
European North ◽  
Ecological Scales ◽  
Floristic Classification ◽  
Made In

The results of floristic classification of technogenic vegetation (alliance Chamerio angustifolii–Matricarion hookeri A. Ishbirdin et al. 1996, order Chamerio–Betuletalia nanae Khusainov et al. in Sumina 2012, class Matricario–Poetea arcticae A. Ishbirdin in Sumina 2012) conducted by the Braun-Blanquet method (Braun-Blanquet, 1964; Mirkin, Naumova, 1998) are given. 98 geobotanical relevés, made in 1981–2013 on areas of oil fields and suburbs of the Usinsk city (Komi Republic) (56–60о N, 67–66о E), were involved into analysis (Fig. 1). The ecological parameters like moisture (F) and mineral nitrogen soil enrichment (N) were assessed using the Ellenberg ecological scales (Ellenberg, 1974).

СОЦИАЛЬНАЯ КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ: ТЕОРЕТИКО-ИСТОРИЧЕСКИЙ АСПЕКТ

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
А. Н. Сухов
Keyword(s):  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Important Task ◽  
Social Conflicts ◽  
Psychological Approach ◽  
Structure Dynamics ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Subject ◽  
First Time

This given article reveals the topicality not only of destructive, but also of constructive, as well as hybrid conflicts. Practically it has been done for the first time. It also describes the history of the formation of both foreign and domestic social conflictology. At the same time, the chronology of the development of the latter is restored and presented objectively, in full, taking into account the contribution of those researchers who actually stood at its origins. The article deals with the essence of the socio-psychological approach to understanding conflicts. The subject of social conflictology includes the regularities of their occurrence and manifestation at various levels, spheres and conditions, including normal, complicated and extreme ones. Social conflictology includes the theory and practice of diagnosing, resolving, and resolving social conflicts. It analyzes the difficulties that occur in defining the concept, structure, dynamics, and classification of social conflicts. Therefore, it is no accident that the most important task is to create a full-fledged theory of social conflicts. Without this, it is impossible to talk about effective settlement and resolution of social conflicts. Social conflictology is an integral part of conflictology. There is still a lot of work to be done, both in theory and in application, for its complete design. At present, there is an urgent need to develop conflict-related competence not only of professionals, but also for various groups of the population.

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