scholarly journals How efficient are the lockdown measures taken for mitigating the Covid-19 epidemic?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samson Lasaulce ◽  
Vineeth Varma ◽  
Constantin Morarescu ◽  
Siying Lin
Keyword(s):  
Health Impacts ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Current Policy ◽  
Government Decision ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Product Loss ◽  
The Government ◽  
Starting Date ◽  
The One ◽  
Simple Behavior

AbstractVarious lockdown measures have been taken in different countries to mitigate the Covid-19 pandemic. But, for citizens, it is not always simple to understand how these measures have been taken. Should they have been more (or less) restrictive? Should the lockdown period have been longer (or shorter)? What would have been the benefits of starting to confine the population earlier? To provide some elements of response to these questions, we propose a simple behavior model for the government decision-making operation. Although simple and obviously improvable, the proposed model has the merit to implement in a pragmatic and insightful way the tradeoff between health and macroeconomic aspects. For a given tradeoff between the assumed cost functions for the economic and health impacts, it is then possible to determine the best lockdown starting date, the best lockdown duration, and the optimal severity levels during and after lockdown. The numerical analysis is based on a standard SEIR model and performed for the case of France but the adopted approach can be applied to any country. Our analysis, based on the proposed model, shows that for France it would have been possible to have just a quarter of the actual number of people infected (over [March 1, August 31]), while simultaneously having a Gross Domestic Product loss about 30% smaller than the one expected with the current policy

scholarly journals Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samson Lasaulce ◽  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Vineeth Varma ◽  
Irinel Constantin Morărescu
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategy ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Government Decision ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Natural Tendency ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Government

Various measures have been taken in different countries to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic. But, throughout the world, many citizens don't understand well how these measures are taken and even question the decisions taken by their government. Should the measures be more (or less) restrictive? Are they taken for a too long (or too short) period of time? To provide some quantitative elements of response to these questions, we consider the well-known SEIR model for the Covid-19 epidemic propagation and propose a pragmatic model of the government decision-making operation. Although simple and obviously improvable, the proposed model allows us to study the tradeoff between health and economic aspects in a pragmatic and insightful way. Assuming a given number of phases for the epidemic (namely, 4 in this paper) and a desired tradeoff between health and economic aspects, it is then possible to determine the optimal duration of each phase and the optimal severity level (i.e., the target transmission rate) for each of them. The numerical analysis is performed for the case of France but the adopted approach can be applied to any country. One of the takeaway messages of this analysis is that being able to implement the optimal 4−phase epidemic management strategy in France would have led to 1.05 million of infected people and a GDP loss of 231 billions € instead of 6.88 millions of infected and a loss of 241 billions €. This indicates that, seen from the proposed model perspective, the effectively implemented epidemic management strategy is good economically, whereas substantial improvements might have been obtained in terms of health impact. Our analysis indicates that the lockdown/severe phase should have been more severe but shorter, and the adjustment phase occurred earlier. Due to the natural tendency of people to deviate from the official rules, updating measures every month over the whole epidemic episode seems to be more appropriate.

Migration and US agricultural competitiveness

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Farm Workers ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lower Wage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Agriculture has one of the highest shares of foreign-born and unauthorized workers among US industries; over three-fourths of hired farm workers were born abroad, usually in Mexico, and over half of all farm workers are unauthorized. Farm employers are among the few to openly acknowledge their dependence on migrant and unauthorized workers, and they oppose efforts to reduce unauthorized migration unless the government legalizes currently illegal farm workers or provides easy access to legal guest workers. The effects of migrants on agricultural competitiveness are mixed. On the one hand, wages held down by migrants keep labour-intensive commodities competitive in the short run, but the fact that most labour-intensive commodities are shipped long distances means that long-run US competitiveness may be eroded as US farmers have fewer incentives to develop labour-saving and productivity-improving methods of farming and production in lower-wage countries expands.

Strategi Pengembangan Kelompok Wanita Tani pada Optimalisasi Lahan Pekarangan di Desa Wonogiri

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-43
Author(s):  
Nindy Danisa Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Government Regulation ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
Women Farmers ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
The Government ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
The One ◽  
Purposive Sample

Development of food security implemented to meet the human basic needs that provide benefits fairly and equitably based on self – reliance, and not contrary to public faith. Referring to the government regulation No 22 of 2009 concerning Food Consumption Diversification Acceleration (P2KP). However, it is not supported by the development of women farmers. The method use in this research is quantitative descriptive analysis using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Treath). The samples in this study is the purposive sample. Result of a study showed the amount of income earned from the group of women farmers in the one month is 150,000/ members. Proper development strategies used in the development strategies used in the development KWT Melati is a Growth Oriented Strategy is very profitable strategy to seize opportunities with the strength. Pembangunan ketahan pangan dilaksanakan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dasar manusia yang memberikan manfaat secara adil dan merata berdasarkan kemandirian, dan tidak bertentangan dengan keyakinan masyarakat. Mengacu pada Peraturan Pemerintah No 22 Tahun 2009 mengenai Percepatan Penganekaragaman Konsumsi Pangan (P2KP). Namun, hal ini tidak didukung dengan adanya pengembangan kelompok wanita tani. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menggunakan analisis SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Treath). Penentuan sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah dengan sampel purposive. Hasil penelitian menunjukan besaran pendapatan yang diperoleh dari adanya kelompok wanita tani dalam satu bulan adalah Rp.150.000/bulan/anggota. Strategi pengembangan yang tepat digunakan dalam pengembangan Kelompok Wanita Tani (KWT) Melati adalah Growth Oriented Strategy.

Recommendations of The Ombudsman’s Dilemma: Between Law Enforcement Officials and Protection of Credibility

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Dyah Adriantini Sintha Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Law Enforcement Officials ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Oversight Body

The Ombudsman as an external oversight body for official performance, in Fikih Siyasah (constitutionality in Islam) is included in the supervision stipulated in legislation (al-musahabah al-qomariyah). Supervision is done so that public service delivery to the community is in accordance with the rights of the community. This is done because in carrying out its duties, officials are very likely to conduct mal administration, which is bad public services that cause harm to the community. The Ombudsman is an institution authorized to resolve the mal administration issue, in which one of its products is by issuing a recommendation. Although Law No. 37 of 2018 on the Ombudsman of the Republic of Indonesia states that the recommendation is mandatory, theombudsman's recommendations have not been implemented. This is due to differences in point of view, ie on the one hand in the context of law enforcement, but on the other hand the implementation of the recommendation is considered as a means of opening the disgrace of officials. Recommendations are the last alternative of Ombudsman's efforts to resolve the mal administration case, given that a win-win solution is the goal, then mediation becomes the main effort. This is in accordance with the condition of the Muslim majority of Indonesian nation and prioritizes deliberation in resolving dispute. Therefore, it is necessary to educate the community and officials related to the implementation of the Ombudsman's recommendations in order to provide good public services for the community, which is the obligation of the government.

A Relativistic Newtonian Mechanics Predicts with Precision the Results of Recent Neutrino-Velocity Experiments

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1032-1035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramzi Suleiman
Keyword(s):  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Newtonian Mechanics ◽  
Speed Of Light ◽  
Symmetry Principle ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The One ◽  
Complete Collapse

The research on quasi-luminal neutrinos has sparked several experimental studies for testing the "speed of light limit" hypothesis. Until today, the overall evidence favors the "null" hypothesis, stating that there is no significant difference between the observed velocities of light and neutrinos. Despite numerous theoretical models proposed to explain the neutrinos behavior, no attempt has been undertaken to predict the experimentally produced results. This paper presents a simple novel extension of Newton's mechanics to the domain of relativistic velocities. For a typical neutrino-velocity experiment, the proposed model is utilized to derive a general expression for . Comparison of the model's prediction with results of six neutrino-velocity experiments, conducted by five collaborations, reveals that the model predicts all the reported results with striking accuracy. Because in the proposed model, the direction of the neutrino flight matters, the model's impressive success in accounting for all the tested data, indicates a complete collapse of the Lorentz symmetry principle in situation involving quasi-luminal particles, moving in two opposite directions. This conclusion is support by previous findings, showing that an identical Sagnac effect to the one documented for radial motion, occurs also in linear motion.

MEMBANGUN PENDIDIKAN KARAKTER SEJAK USIA DINI

Edupedia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Agus Supriyadi
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Character Education ◽  
Moral Values ◽  
The Other ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Early Age ◽  
National Education ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Character education is a vital instrument in determining the progress of a nation. Therefore the government needs to build educational institutions in order to produce good human resources that are ready to oversee and deliver the nation at a progressive level. It’s just that in reality, national education is not in line with the ideals of national education because the output is not in tune with moral values on the one hand and the potential for individuals to compete in world intellectual order on the other hand. Therefore, as a solution to these problems is the need for the applicationof character education from an early age.

ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN INDICATORS CHARACTERIZING MEDICAL CARE FOR CHILDREN WITH CANCER IN SAINT-PETERSBURG AND IN THE LENINGRAD REGION IN 2013-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Maksim Rykov ◽  
Ivan Turabov ◽  
Yuriy Punanov ◽  
Svetlana Safonova
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Medical Care ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Leningrad Region ◽  
Children With Cancer ◽  
Health Committee ◽  
The Government ◽  
Delivery Of Medical Care ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Background: St. Petersburg is a city of federal importance with a large number of primary patients, identified annually. Objective: analysis of the main indicators characterizing medical care for children with cancer in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. Methods: The operative reports for 2013-2017 of the Health Committee of the Government of St. Petersburg and the Health Committee of the Leningrad Region were analyzed. Results. In 2013-2017 in the Russian Federation, 18 090 primary patients were identified, 927 (5.1%) of them in the analyzed subjects: in St. Petersburg - 697 (75,2%), in the Leningrad Region - 230 (24,8%). For 5 years, the number of primary patients increased in St. Petersburg - by 36%, in the Leningrad Region - by 2,5%. The incidence increased in St. Petersburg by 18,1% (from 14,9 in 2013 to 17,6 in 2017 per 100 000 of children aged 0-17). The incidence in the Leningrad Region fell by 4.9% (from 14.4 in 2013 to 13.7 in 2017). Mortality in 2016-2017 in St. Petersburg increased by 50% (from 2 to 3), in the Leningrad Region - by 12,5% (from 2,4 to 2,7). The one-year mortality rate in St. Petersburg increased by 3,9% (from 2,5 to 6,4%). In the Leningrad Region, the one-year mortality rate decreased from 6,5% in 2016 to 0 in 2017. The number of pediatric oncological beds did not change in St. Petersburg (0,9 per 10,000 children aged 0-17 years) and the Leningrad Region (0). In St. Petersburg patients were not identified actively in 2016-2017; in the Leningrad Region their percentage decreased from 8,7 to 0. The number of oncologists increased in St. Petersburg from 0,09 to 0.12 (+33,3%), in the Leningrad Region - from 0 to 0,03. Conclusion: Morbidity in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region is significantly different, which indicates obvious defects in statistical data. Patients were not identified during routine preventive examinations which indicate a low oncologic alertness of district pediatric physicians. Delivery of medical care for children with cancer and the statistical data accumulation procedures should be improved.

Drug Target Group Prediction with Multiple Drug Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 274-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingang Che ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Zi-Han Guo ◽  
Shuaiqun Wang ◽  
Aorigele
Keyword(s):  
Drug Target ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Multiple Drug ◽  
Property A ◽  
Multiple Networks ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The One

Background: Identification of drug-target interaction is essential in drug discovery. It is beneficial to predict unexpected therapeutic or adverse side effects of drugs. To date, several computational methods have been proposed to predict drug-target interactions because they are prompt and low-cost compared with traditional wet experiments. Methods: In this study, we investigated this problem in a different way. According to KEGG, drugs were classified into several groups based on their target proteins. A multi-label classification model was presented to assign drugs into correct target groups. To make full use of the known drug properties, five networks were constructed, each of which represented drug associations in one property. A powerful network embedding method, Mashup, was adopted to extract drug features from above-mentioned networks, based on which several machine learning algorithms, including RAndom k-labELsets (RAKEL) algorithm, Label Powerset (LP) algorithm and Support Vector Machine (SVM), were used to build the classification model. Results and Conclusion: Tenfold cross-validation yielded the accuracy of 0.839, exact match of 0.816 and hamming loss of 0.037, indicating good performance of the model. The contribution of each network was also analyzed. Furthermore, the network model with multiple networks was found to be superior to the one with a single network and classic model, indicating the superiority of the proposed model.

Timber

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Charles Taylor ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Forestry Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Timber Market

During the civil war, Liberia’s forestry sector rose to prominence as Charles Taylor traded timber for arms. When the war ended, the UN’s timber sanctions remained in effect, reinforced by the Forestry Development Authority’s (FDA) domestic ban on logging. As Liberians waited for UN timber sanctions to be lifted, a burgeoning domestic timber market developed. This demand was met by artisanal loggers, more commonly referred to as pit sawyers. Out of this illicit economy emerged the Nezoun Group to provide local dispute resolution between the FDA’s tax collectors and ex-combatant pit sawyers. The Nezoun Group posed a dilemma for the government. On the one hand, the regulatory efforts of the Nezoun Group helped the FDA to tax an activity that it had banned. On the other hand, the state’s inability to contain the operations of the Nezoun Group—in open contravention of Liberian laws—highlighted the government’s capacity problems.

Modeling Capacity of Through Movement at Signalized Intersection Affected by Short Left-Turn Bay under Different Signal Settings

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110064
Author(s):  
Zihang Wei ◽  
Yunlong Zhang ◽  
Xiaoyu Guo ◽  
Xin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Cycle Length ◽  
Signalized Intersections ◽  
Signalized Intersection ◽  
Essential Factor ◽  
Highway Capacity ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Highway Capacity Manual ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Vehicle Demand ◽  
The One

Through movement capacity is an essential factor used to reflect intersection performance, especially for signalized intersections, where a large proportion of vehicle demand is making through movements. Generally, left-turn spillback is considered a key contributor to affect through movement capacity, and blockage to the left-turn bay is known to decrease left-turn capacity. Previous studies have focused primarily on estimating the through movement capacity under a lagging protected only left-turn (lagging POLT) signal setting, as a left-turn spillback is more likely to happen under such a condition. However, previous studies contained assumptions (e.g., omit spillback), or were dedicated to one specific signal setting. Therefore, in this study, through movement capacity models based on probabilistic modeling of spillback and blockage scenarios are established under four different signal settings (i.e., leading protected only left-turn [leading POLT], lagging left-turn, protected plus permitted left-turn, and permitted plus protected left-turn). Through microscopic simulations, the proposed models are validated, and compared with existing capacity models and the one in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). The results of the comparisons demonstrate that the proposed models achieved significant advantages over all the other models and obtained high accuracies in all signal settings. Each proposed model for a given signal setting maintains consistent accuracy across various left-turn bay lengths. The proposed models of this study have the potential to serve as useful tools, for practicing transportation engineers, when determining the appropriate length of a left-turn bay with the consideration of spillback and blockage, and the adequate cycle length with a given bay length.

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