Russia and the World: 2016 IMEMO Forecast

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Dynkin ◽  
V. Baranovsky ◽  
I. Kobrinskaya ◽  
G. Machavariany ◽  
S. Afontsev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
International Environment ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The Military ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Substantial Change

This forecast examines the major trends in Russia's relations with the world and in the Russian view of the world in 2016. The forecast looks firstly at Russia's role in the world in the context of the extant and emergent state of geopolitics. In a confused international environment, caught between the multiple, discordant and disorderly games of checkers of the present and the emerging design of a new grand chessboard for international relations, Russia and the West have been forced into cooperation. While far from easy and far from guaranteed to work – or last – this situation does offer the possibility of overcoming divides to pursue mutual interests. These interests become particularly apparent in the context of increased shared threats and the need to act jointly against them, the uncertainties created by rising powers, and the difficulties that Russia finds itself in. The key role of new mega-regional trade agreements in this emerging great game is also emphasised in the subsequent sections of the forecast, which deal, respectively, with foreign policy and political economy. The foreign policy analysis sees the US in flux in a presidential election year, and the EU caught at the crossroads of its own failure to capitalise on integration and a migration crisis of unprecedented proportions. Meanwhile, foreign policy in the post-Soviet space is characterised more by stasis than by substantial change, with frozen conflicts and stagnant reforms in Ukraine and limited room for manoeuvre for other players the order of the day. The Russian involvement in the Middle East, however, is anything but stagnant, with the military operations in Syria having dramatic effects in both the situation in Syria and global and regional geopolitics. The sustainability of this quest for influence, however, is questioned by the attitude of other players, but also by Russia's own internal weaknesses, notably its serious and deepening economic crisis.

Euro-Atlantic Relations in the XXI Century: Problems and Scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 59 (11) ◽  
pp. 31-37
Author(s):  
N. Arbatova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Main Question ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic And Financial Crisis

The Euro-Atlantic relations after the end of the Cold war have been strongly influenced by the impact of three interrelated crises: the existential crisis of NATO, the world economic and financial crisis, and the crisis in the Russia-West relations. The end of bipolarity has changed the threat environment and revealed how different alliance members formulate their threat perception and foreign policy interests. Europe stopped to be the US foreign policy priority. The US pivot to Asia has raised European concerns about American commitments to collective defense. The removal of the threat of a global conflict resulted in the EU initiatives aimed at promoting integration in the field of common security and defense policy (CSDP). Even though the US has officially welcomed a stronger European pillar in NATO, it has become concerned about new approaches that could divide transatlantic partnership and take resources away from military cooperation. At the same time the unilateralist preferences of the Bush administration generated deep political divisions between the United States and the European Union. The world economic and financial crisis contributed to a dangerous gulf between American and European defense spending. The US has complained about the tendency of the alliance’s European members to skimp on defense spending and take advantage of America’s security shield to free ride. In the absence of a clear external threat NATO tried to draft new missions, which were found in NATO’s expansion to the post-Communist space and Alliance’s out of area operations. But these new missions could not answer the main question about NATO’s post-bipolar identity. Moreover, the Kosovo operation of NATO in 1999 fueled Russia’s concerns about NATO’s intentions in the post-Soviet space. The creeping crisis in the Russia-West relations resulted in the Caucasus and Ukrainian conflicts that provided kind of glue to transatlantic relations but did not return them to the old pattern. There can be several representing possible futures lying ahead. But under any scenario EU will be faced with a necessity to shoulder more of the burden of their own security.

Religion, Violence, and the State

2018 ◽  
pp. 226-262
Author(s):  
Muhammad Qasim Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
War On Terror ◽  
The State ◽  
The Other ◽  
Islamic Tradition ◽  
State And Society ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Military ◽  
Subsequent Rise

This chapter focuses on religio-political violence, whose widespread incidence—after Pakistan's realignment in the US-led War on Terror in the aftermath of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent rise of a new, Pakistani Taliban—has threatened the very fabric of state and society. It examines the violence in question from two broad and intertwined perspectives, one relating to the state, and the other to Islam and those speaking in its terms. Part of the concern in this chapter is to contribute to an understanding of how the governing elite and the military have often fostered the conditions in which the resort to religiously inflected violence has been justified. It also suggests that the nonstate actors—ideologues and militants—have had an agency of their own, which is not reducible to the machinations of the state. Their resort to relevant facets of the Islamic tradition also needs to be taken seriously in order to properly understand their view of the world and such appeal as they have had in particular circles.

7. America in the 1990s: searching for purpose

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Dumbrell
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
American Foreign Policy ◽  
External Environment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bill Clinton ◽  
First Year ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
International Environment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Internal Pressures

This chapter examines how the external environment of US foreign policy and internal pressures on policy makers both shifted radically in the 1990s. Internationally, the ‘long 1990s’ were characterized by intense democratic possibility. Yet they were also years of atavistic negativity and irrationality, as seen in Rwanda and Bosnia. Two questions arise: First, how should the United States respond to a world which was apparently both rapidly integrating and rapidly disintegrating? Second, was it inevitable, desirable, or even possible that the US should provide global leadership? Before discussing various approaches to these questions, the chapter considers the wider international environment of apparent unipolarity and globalization. It also analyzes the development of American foreign policy under presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton, focusing in particular on the so-called ‘Kennan sweepstakes’ during the first year of Clinton’s presidency as well as Clinton’s turn towards unilateralism and remilitarization.

“Isahama Women Farmers” against Enclosure

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-574
Author(s):  
Wendy Matsumura
Keyword(s):  
Social Reproduction ◽  
Women Farmers ◽  
Favorable Outcome ◽  
Political Struggle ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Okinawa Island ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Military

In July 1954, the US military notified residents of Isahama, Ginowan, in the central part of Okinawa Island, of their evictions from their lands. Despite immediate opposition by residents, the military rejected all appeals on the grounds that this and other evictions were necessary to make the world safe for democracy. Though Isahama’s residents were discouraged by their failure to extract a more favorable outcome from military authorities, their struggle to keep their lands from being requisitioned—and similar struggles that erupted in Iejima, Furujima, and Mawashi—are widely recognized as the sparks that ignited the “all-island struggle” of 1956. This article considers the roles that Isahama’s women farmers played in inspiring the mass mobilization of 1956. While scholars have characterized the power of their protests as stemming precisely from their apolitical character—from their desperation as mothers and wives simply trying to protect their families from certain death—it proposes a reconsideration of this assessment. A Marxist feminist perspective that centers on the concept of social reproduction enables a linking of their struggle to a broader genealogy of political struggle in Okinawa and beyond to one that women and feminists waged against capital, militarism, and patriarchy.

Coercive Mediation on the Road to Dayton

1996 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saadia Touval
Keyword(s):  
Military Operations ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Us ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military

AbstractThe article tries to explain why the American mediation at Dayton resulted in agreement, whereas previous attempts to settle the Bosnian conflict had failed. After examining the evolution of American policies prior to 1995, the article discusses the US initiative of taking the lead in the negotiation, and the methods and tactics it employed. It argues that the military operations against the Serbs do not fit the description of the mediator as a manipulator inducing a mutually hurting stalemate. The military campaign having endowed Western policies with credibility, intimidated the Serbs, and redrawn the front-lines, might be called coercive mediation. It suggests that the description of the mediator as an intervenor who does not employ force needs to be revised.

The Democracy-Promotion Gap in American Public Opinion

2007 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 557-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN TURES
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Democracy Promotion ◽  
American People ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
The Us

United States foreign-policymakers have enthusiastically backed policies of promoting democracy abroad. But do the American people support these plans? Evidence from polls reveals that while people generally like the idea of exporting freedom, they do not view it as a top priority. Other concepts such as political and economic security are valued more by the American public. Backing for democracy promotion also seems to be waning in recent years. I examine these issues and offer possible reasons for this “gap” in response to democracy promotion among American people. I also explain the implications of these findings for America's foreign policy, including the types of government the US appears to support in the wake of military operations. I conclude with an examination of why the policy of democracy promotion has not been more popular with the American people, evaluating competing arguments that the policy is flawed, as opposed to simply a case of poor public relations.

scholarly journals La crisi in Afghanistan: l’intervento militare e il recente disimpegno internazionale in una prospettiva regionale

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Carati
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Obama Administration ◽  
Soviet Occupation ◽  
Global Power ◽  
The Us ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Us Intervention ◽  
Freedom Of Action

The paper delves into the Afghanistan crisis in a regional perspective. It frames the regional and international influences in the country emphasizing the interdependence between global and regional interferences. It argues that regional actors tend to gain more freedom of action in Afghan affairs when global actors – empires or superpowers – disengage from the country. Conversely, when global powers are intervening (as during the Great Game, the Soviet occupation or the US intervention since 2001), regional actors lose their sway. Accordingly, the paper investigates the recent crisis in Afghanistan identifying three phases starting from the US mission launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks: the G.W. Bush approach to the military campaign in Afghanistan (2001-8); the Af-Pak Strategy implemented by the Obama administration (2009-14); the years of international withdrawal (2015-19). For each period, the analysis underlines the activism of regional actors in Afghanistan and how it becomes prominent when the global power tends to disengage.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Vietnamese Foreign Policy in the Doi Moi Era

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Vuving
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Doi Moi ◽  
International Environment ◽  
The World ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Main Shortcoming ◽  
Shed Light

Tracing the evolution of Vietnamese foreign policy since the 1980s, this chapter identifies four major turning points in its trajectory. Each turning point was triggered by an event or series of events that profoundly altered the international environment of Vietnam’s quest for identity, resources, and security. These events exerted enormous impact not only on the conditions under which the country operates but also on Vietnamese views of the world and the key actors in their international environment. When Vietnam’s ruling elites responded to these changes, they set in motion corresponding changes in Vietnamese domestic and foreign policy. The foreign policy periods bracketed by the turning points thus roughly corresponded with phases in the evolution of the Vietnamese state. This paper will tease out the complex relationships between the international environment, the nature of the Vietnamese state, and Vietnamese foreign policy, and shed light on the worldviews and motives behind Vietnam’s foreign policy. The key challenge to current Vietnamese foreign policy, which was also its main shortcoming in the last three decades, is that Vietnam’s policymakers often view the world through the prism of a bygone era. The last section of the paper will briefly scan the horizon for the next turning point in Vietnamese foreign policy.

Foreign Policy Decision-Making

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica D. Blankshain
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Interpersonal Dynamics ◽  
The Us ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Policy Decision Making

The study of foreign policy decision-making seeks to understand how states formulate and enact foreign policy. It views foreign policy as a series of decisions made by particular actors using specific decision-making processes. The origins of this focus on decision-making are generally traced to the 1950s and 1960s, with the literature increasing in complexity and diversity of approaches in more recent decades. Foreign policy decision-making is situated within foreign policy analysis (a subfield of international relations subfield), which applies theories and methods from an array of disciplines—political science, public administration, economics, psychology, sociology—to understand how states make foreign policy, and how these policies translate into geopolitical outcomes. The literature on foreign policy decision-making is often subdivided based on assumptions about the process by which actors make foreign policy decisions—primarily falling into rational and nonrational decision-making; about who is assumed to make the decision—states, individuals, groups, or organizations; and about the influences believed to be most important in affecting those decisions—international factors, domestic political factors, interpersonal dynamics, etc. While much of the literature focuses on foreign policy decision-making in the United States, there have been attempts to apply models developed in the US context to other states, as well as to generate generalizable theories about foreign policy decision-making that apply to certain types of states.

AFRICAN POLICY COMPONENT OF THE US, PRC AND RUSSIAN FEDERATION (PART 2)

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
D. V. GORDIENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Military Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the work is to assess the impact of the African component of the policy of the states of the strategic triangle Russia-China-USA on the implementation of their current economic and military policy. The assessment of the impact of this component on the national security of these countries is considered. An approach to the comparison of such influence is proposed, which makes it possible to identify the priorities of Russia's policy in Africa and other regions of the world. The article can be used to justify recommendations to the military and political leadership of our country.

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