Designing a Set of Econometric Models to Measure the Impact of Social Infrastructure on Demographic Development Indicators in Russian Regions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Models ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Consequences of the Military Conflict in Eastern Ukraine, Its Impact on International Investment Attractiveness, Economic and Demographic Development in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Dmytro Vasylkivskyi ◽  
Serhii Matiukh ◽  
Olha Matviiets ◽  
Ihor Lapshyn ◽  
Vitalina Babenko
Keyword(s):  
International Investment ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine and the growing geopolitical tensions have had a significant impact on the economy and society of the country. As a result, it deepened the recession and diverged from the planned development indicators. In particular, this concerns international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and the country's budget deficit. Multilateral economic changes, exacerbated by the impact of hostilities in the Eastern part of the country have transformed the structure of socio-demographic processes in Ukraine. Armed confrontation causes a continuous deterioration of demographic and economic indicators of development not only of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also has an impact on the whole country. This confrontation is also accompanied by the loss (destruction, theft, etc.) of public assets. The estimated cost of destroyed components of industrial, communal, social, transport, energy and other infrastructure are indicative due to the inability to inspect objects located within the territory controlled by terrorist groups. The conflict has also affected the investment attractiveness of the country, which accelerates the creation of a depressed nature of country’s development. Therefore, in the context of hostility in the Eastern Ukraine, it is important to understand and study its destabilizing impact, not only on domestic economic and demographic indicators, but also on the volume of foreign investment, which will allow us to understand the level of country’s involvement in the global investment space and the real impact of military action on the population and on international economic affairs of Ukraine. As a result of this scientific research, the population and GDP forecast have been conducted. It is worth noting that the forecast itself based on regression mathematical modelling which includes past data and can be accurate if current conditions are stable in the future.

scholarly journals Assessment of the prospects for changing the demographic situation in the regions of Russia, taking into account the development of social infrastructure

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Oreshnikov ◽  
Marsel Nizamutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The current situation in the field of demographic development in Russia is characterized by a combination of many heterogeneous factors, the overwhelming majority of which are negative. Thus, the risk is posed by the aging of the population, changes in reproductive behavior, an increase in the demographic burden, a decrease in real incomes of a significant share of the population, etc. Socio-economic factors and living conditions of the population have a significant impact on demographic processes. The article examines the issues of assessing the impact of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. It is pointed out that the current situation is characterized by a high degree of differentiation in all key indicators of regional development, including the relationship between the parameters of demographic development and the development of the social infrastructure of the region. An approach to the grouping of regions, taking into account the interval estimation of each of the considered parameters, is proposed. This approach has been tested on three key parameters of population movement – fertility, mortality and migration. The obtained results of the grouping of regions were used in the formation of a set of regression equations describing the dependence of the values of the parameters of population movement on the level of development of social infrastructure and the group numbers assigned to the regions. In the course of the study, rating assessments of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation were obtained from the standpoint of the parameters under consideration and a mid-term forecast of changes in the population growth rate was formed. Thus, the authors have shown that social infrastructure, acting as a component of the general regional infrastructure, with which people directly interact and which, itself being a reflection of the development of the regional economy, directly affects the reproductive and migratory behavior of Russian citizens.

Assessing the impact of infrastructure on the social and economic development of Russian regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 792-809
Author(s):  
Al'bert G. MNATSAKANYAN ◽  
Sedrak SARGSYAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Development Objectives ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Subject. We present the analysis of theoretical and practical aspects of the impact of infrastructure on socio-economic development. Objectives. The aim of the study is to review theoretical and empirical aspects of relationship between the condition of infrastructure and the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. Methods. The study draws on comparative and logical analysis of theoretical foundations and conclusions published in scientific sources, as well as methods of mathematical and statistical analysis. Results. The statistical measurement of relationship between the condition of infrastructure and the determinants of economic growth yielded results that run counter to the findings in academic literature. While we reveal a significant positive correlation between the level of transport and energy infrastructure development with the gross regional product per capita, the variables that characterize the state of telecommunications and social infrastructure have little or no connection with this indicator of the Russian regions’ development. Conclusions. Several variables are not enough to assess the impact of infrastructure on socio-economic development. For this reason, the model of infrastructure impact assessment requires further improvement.

METHODICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING TOOLKIT MODELING AND INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR THE FORMATION OF FORECASTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (4) ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
M.M. NIZAMUTDINOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Information ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Model Complex ◽  
Natural Movement ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Impact

According to Rosstat for 2020, the population of Russia as a result of its natural movement decreased by 688.7 thousand people. If the birth rate in relation to 2019 decreased by 3.0%, then mortality increased by 17.9%. For many regions of the country (oddly enough, in the first place of its European part), the situation turned out to be even more difficult. At the same time, heterogeneous factors had an impact on each other - a change in the age structure of the population, the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in real income, etc. Under these conditions, the problem of obtaining accurate predictive assessments of the situation development in order to develop government policies to improve it is updated. Objectively necessary is the introduction of relevant information systems built on the basis of integrated economic and mathematical models. In this regard, the article discusses the development and application of modern tools for analyzing and predicting the development of territorial systems, including demographic aspects. It is indicated that a significant factor is the development of the social infrastructure of the territory. A system of criteria and indicators are proposed to assess the impact of its level of development on demographic processes. In particular, areas such as health care, education, culture and leisure, housing, trade and services are considered. An approach to the formation of integral indicators in various areas of life of society and an example of developing regression equations based on them is presented. It is noted that in different regions of the country, the degree of influence of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes may differ significantly, which requires accounting within the framework of the model being formed. The possibility and need to build a decision support system based on the obtained model complex and is defined by such a toolkit in the strategic development management system of the region. The key stages of developing tools are described. The results obtained can be used as part of modeling changes in the demographic potential of regions in the context of the transformation of the territorial settlement system.

Identifiable regression models of the relationship between agricultural development indicators of the regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1357-1373
Author(s):  
Z.N. Ismikhаnov
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Computer Application ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Relationship

Subject. This article evaluates the quantitative relationships between agricultural development indicators based on identifiable econometric models. Objectives. The article aims to build identifiable structural econometric models of the relationships of key indicators of agricultural development in Russian regions in present-day conditions. Methods. For the study, I used econometric modeling and mathematical statistics techniques, and computer application programs. Results. The article substantiates the relevance of quantifying the relationship between key agricultural development indicators in Russian regions on the basis of identifiable econometric models, identifies major quantitative dependences, and presents statistically significant identifiable structural models of the relationship of agricultural development indicators. Conclusions. In today's environment, the possibilities for objective quantification of the relationship between agricultural development indicators are associated with the use of formalized quantitative methods. The statistical properties of identifiable structural models get improved as the number of observations increases. The best statistical properties are those obtained for the regions of the Southern Federal District.

Investment climate and government turnover in russian regions

2014 ◽  
pp. 88-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Syunyaev ◽  
L. Polishchuk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Regional Data ◽  
Endogenous Property Rights ◽  
The Impact

We study the impact of Russian regional governors’ rotation and their affiliation with private sector firms for the quality of investment climate in Russian regions. A theoretical model presented in the paper predicts that these factors taken together improve “endogenous” property rights under authoritarian regimes. This conclusion is confirmed empirically by using Russian regional data for 2002—2010; early in that period gubernatorial elections had been canceled and replaced by federal government’s appointments. This is an indication that under certain conditions government rotation is beneficial for economic development even when democracy is suppressed.

Impact of regulatory framework rigidity on poverty in the regions of Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 62-79
Author(s):  
P. N. Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Federal Regulations ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Poverty Dynamics ◽  
Regulatory Burden ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The paper analyzes the impact of the federal regulatory burden on poverty dynamics in Russia. The paper provides regional level indices of the federal regulatory burden on the economy in 2008—2018 which take into account sectoral structure of regions’ output and the level of regulatory rigidity of federal regulations governing certain types of economic activity. Estimates of empirical specifications of poverty theoretical model with the inclusion of macroeconomic and institutional factors shows that limiting the scope of the rulemaking activity of government bodies and weakening of new regulations rigidity contributes to a statistically significant reduction in the level of poverty in Russian regions. Cancellation of 10% of accumulated federal level requirements through the “regulatory guillotine” administrative reform may take out of poverty about 1.1—1.4 million people.

Retrospective analysis of the resilience of Russian regions as socio-economic systems

2019 ◽  
pp. 46-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Klimanov ◽  
Sofiya М. Kazakova ◽  
Anna A. Mikhaylova
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Integral Index ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Correlation Dependence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The article examines the impact of various socio-economic and financial indicators on the resilience of Russian regions. For each region, the integral index of resilience is calculated, and its correlation dependence with the selected indicators is revealed. The study confirms the relationship between fiscal resilience and socio-economic resilience of the regions. The analysis of panel data for 75 regions from 2007 to 2016 shows that there are significant differences in the dynamics of indicators in different periods. In particular, the degree of exposure to the negative effects of the crises of 2008—2009 and 2014—2015 in non-resilient regions is higher than in resilient ones.

Institutional environment creating for attracting investment into infrastructure: The cases of Russian regions

2019 ◽  
pp. 134-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Borshchevskiy
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Behavior Of Government ◽  
The City ◽  
Nenets Autonomous ◽  
Practical Recommendations

The article examines the institutional process in a regional economy connected with the infrastructure development. We use the neoinstitutional approach to study factors that influence the behavior of government and business in their interaction in the economy. We also use statistical methods to analyze the dynamics of socio-economic development indicators of the subjects of the Russian Federation as well as the results of measures to attract private investment into infrastructure, including the PPP. We chose the city of Moscow and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District as two empirical case studies which differ in economic and geographic conditions, but both demonstrate success in attracting private investment and implementing infrastructure projects. Our conclusions are consistent with a theory that asserts the primacy of institutional environment in relation to project implementation. We make also some practical recommendations for the development of the institutional environment which are acceptable for all regions solving similar problems of infrastructure development.

Some reflections on social structure: Theoretical and practical aspects

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1063-1078
Author(s):  
T.N. Skorobogatova ◽  
I.Yu. Marakhovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Service Industry ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
The Social ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
The Impact

Subject. This article discusses the role of social infrastructure in the national economy and analyzes the relationship between the notions of Infrastructure, Service Industry and Non-Productive Sphere. Objectives. The article aims to outline a methodology for development of the social infrastructure of Russia's regions. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of statistical and comparative analyses. The Republic of Crimea and Rostov Oblast's social infrastructure development was considered as a case study. Results. The article finds that the level of social infrastructure is determined by a number of internal and external factors. By analyzing and assessing such factors, it is possible to develop promising areas for the social sphere advancement. Conclusions. Assessment and analysis of internal factors largely determined by the region's characteristics, as well as a comprehensive consideration of the impact of external factors will help ensure the competitiveness of the region's economy.

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