scholarly journals Assessment of the prospects for changing the demographic situation in the regions of Russia, taking into account the development of social infrastructure

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Oreshnikov ◽  
Marsel Nizamutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The current situation in the field of demographic development in Russia is characterized by a combination of many heterogeneous factors, the overwhelming majority of which are negative. Thus, the risk is posed by the aging of the population, changes in reproductive behavior, an increase in the demographic burden, a decrease in real incomes of a significant share of the population, etc. Socio-economic factors and living conditions of the population have a significant impact on demographic processes. The article examines the issues of assessing the impact of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. It is pointed out that the current situation is characterized by a high degree of differentiation in all key indicators of regional development, including the relationship between the parameters of demographic development and the development of the social infrastructure of the region. An approach to the grouping of regions, taking into account the interval estimation of each of the considered parameters, is proposed. This approach has been tested on three key parameters of population movement – fertility, mortality and migration. The obtained results of the grouping of regions were used in the formation of a set of regression equations describing the dependence of the values of the parameters of population movement on the level of development of social infrastructure and the group numbers assigned to the regions. In the course of the study, rating assessments of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation were obtained from the standpoint of the parameters under consideration and a mid-term forecast of changes in the population growth rate was formed. Thus, the authors have shown that social infrastructure, acting as a component of the general regional infrastructure, with which people directly interact and which, itself being a reflection of the development of the regional economy, directly affects the reproductive and migratory behavior of Russian citizens.

METHODICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING TOOLKIT MODELING AND INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR THE FORMATION OF FORECASTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (4) ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
M.M. NIZAMUTDINOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Information ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Model Complex ◽  
Natural Movement ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Impact

According to Rosstat for 2020, the population of Russia as a result of its natural movement decreased by 688.7 thousand people. If the birth rate in relation to 2019 decreased by 3.0%, then mortality increased by 17.9%. For many regions of the country (oddly enough, in the first place of its European part), the situation turned out to be even more difficult. At the same time, heterogeneous factors had an impact on each other - a change in the age structure of the population, the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in real income, etc. Under these conditions, the problem of obtaining accurate predictive assessments of the situation development in order to develop government policies to improve it is updated. Objectively necessary is the introduction of relevant information systems built on the basis of integrated economic and mathematical models. In this regard, the article discusses the development and application of modern tools for analyzing and predicting the development of territorial systems, including demographic aspects. It is indicated that a significant factor is the development of the social infrastructure of the territory. A system of criteria and indicators are proposed to assess the impact of its level of development on demographic processes. In particular, areas such as health care, education, culture and leisure, housing, trade and services are considered. An approach to the formation of integral indicators in various areas of life of society and an example of developing regression equations based on them is presented. It is noted that in different regions of the country, the degree of influence of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes may differ significantly, which requires accounting within the framework of the model being formed. The possibility and need to build a decision support system based on the obtained model complex and is defined by such a toolkit in the strategic development management system of the region. The key stages of developing tools are described. The results obtained can be used as part of modeling changes in the demographic potential of regions in the context of the transformation of the territorial settlement system.

IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE ETHNO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 20-28
Author(s):  
Sergey V. Ryazantsev ◽  
◽  
Alexey D. Bragin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Role ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Donor Country ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Reproductive Processes ◽  
The Impact

This article presents an assessment of the impact of immigration on ethno-demographic processes in the Russian Federation. It is determined that immigration plays a significant role in the demographic development of the Russian Federation and can affect many areas of the ethno-demographic structure of the population. The process of interaction between immigration and ethno-demography is highlighted, which depends both on the characteristics and structure of immigration flows and on the reproductive processes in the recipient country. Based on the formed coefficients for assessing the impact of immigration on ethno-demographic processes, a comparative analysis of the selected indicators was carried out. During the analysis it was determined that immigration has a direct impact on the process of formation of the ethno-demographic system of Russian society. Guided by the data on the scale of migration for 2020, the conclusion is made about the significant role of the donor country in the process of ethnic self-determination of immigrants.

scholarly journals Ethnodemography of Bashkirs in Regions of Russia (1970—2010)

2021 ◽  
pp. 397-415
Author(s):  
F. G. Safin ◽  
S. R. Abramova ◽  
M. N. Ishemgulov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Present Stage ◽  
Linguistic Identity ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
Comparative Aspect ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The issues of ethno-demographic and ethno-linguistic development of the Bashkir population in the regions of the Russian Federation are considered. It is noted that the tendencies of demographic processes among the Bashkirs in the regions and in the republic of the same name are very different. The features of the ethnodemographic development of the Bashkirs in the regions of their historical settlement are shown, in which general trends coincide with the demographic processes in the country as a whole. It cannot be said about the Republic of Bashkortostan, which is characterized by sharp fluctuations in the size of the titular ethnic group. The dynamics of the ethnic and linguistic identity of the Bashkir population in the regions of historical settlement is revealed in a comparative aspect with the subjects to which the Bashkirs moved at a later time and in which their number is a small proportion. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that it was the first to analyze the ethno-demographic and ethno-linguistic aspects of the development of the Bashkirs in the Russian Federation, including in the regions of their historical settlement. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the issue of the demographic development of the Bashkir population at the present stage, especially in the republic of the same name, has acquired an ethnopolitical discourse. It has been proven that, despite the policy of reviving ethnicity and the native language, the Bashkirs, like other peoples, are gradually losing it in favor of being recognized as a native Russian.

scholarly journals Demographic situation in Russia and social infrastructure

POPULATION ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-75
Author(s):  
Svetlana V. Makar ◽  
Yury A. Simagin ◽  
Aziza V. Yarasheva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Child Support ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
European Culture ◽  
Support Costs ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article considers the main indicators of demographic development of the Russian Federation in recent years in connection with the level of development of social infrastructure. It is shown that the demographic situation in the country is deteriorating, that is due to both subjective and objective reasons. Among the objective reasons, the main one is the change in the age structure of the population, which is expressed in a sharp decrease in the number of women in fertile age. This is due to the acute demographic crisis of the 1990s, «demographic waves» generated by the Great Patriotic War, and other factors. Among the subjective causes of the decline in birth rate, the article highlights the general patterns of reduction in the number of children in families as the level of socio-economic development increases, which are characteristic of all countries of European culture. In particular, the reduction in the number of children is facilitated by such factors as reduction in the share of officially registered families, increase in child support costs, and the financial difficultiesfaced by families with children during economic crises and stagnation. All these cases are typical for regions of the Russian Federation in recent years. Development of social infrastructure — education, healthcare, culture, sports, and other similar systems — could improve the demographic situation in Russia. Unfortunately, in recent years, such systems have been degrading rather than developing in Russia. This is facilitated by the system of statistical reporting that does not reflect the actual situation. The article proposes approaches that could overcome this shortcoming of the present statistical reporting system, thereby contributing to the demographic development of the modern Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Trends and factors shaping the territorial mobility of the population in the regions of the Russian Federation

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 120-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. V. Fattakhov ◽  
M. M. Nizamutdinov ◽  
V. V. Oreshnikov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article deals with the issues of spatial mobility of the population in the regions of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is determined by the increasing importance of these processes to ensure the sustainable development of the country as a whole and its individual territories. The aim of the research is the formation of an economic-mathematical model of population migration in the regions of the Russian Federation, taking into account the cumulative impact of multidirectional indicators of socio-economic development. To achieve this goal, a statistical analysis was carried out to identify the correlation between the indicators characterizing the dynamics of migration processes and the socio-economic development of Russian regions. In addition, the methods of structural analysis, analysis of the dynamics, methods of economic and mathematical modeling were used. The conducted clustering allows you to visually see the imbalance of migration processes between the western and eastern parts of the country. Based on the analysis of statistical data, a list of twenty-four indicators (including those characterizing economic development, social security, public finances, demographic situation, etc.) that have a significant impact on migration processes in the regions of Russia was determined. An algorithm for determining the integral indicators, taking into account the degree of «multidirectionality» of particular parameters, is proposed. The proposed approach has been tested on data from the federal districts of the Russian Federation, in particular, a set of regression equations has been developed, describing the relationship between the values of the integral indicators of various spheres of society and the coefficients of migration growth. The scientific novelty of the proposed approach lies in the implementation of a comprehensive interdisciplinary view of the problem under consideration using formalized modeling methods and tools, which allow to quantify possible scenarios for the evolution of socio-economic and demographic processes, calculate their impact on the transformation of the territorial settlement system in the long term. The results can be used to make decisions in the field of demographic policy and management of regional development in the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF FINANCIAL AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOR OF RUSSIANS

2021 ◽  
pp. 65-75
Author(s):  
L.M. Tuktamysheva ◽  
◽  
O.B. Chaganova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Behavior ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Fast Food ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Regional Context ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The issue of studying the socio-economic inequality of the population in the regional context is a broad field for research. Of interest are studies based on the analysis of the relationships between the population’s income, debt load or the propensity to accumulation of money, as well as the population’s ability to spend leisure time in restaurants and other similar establishments. The purpose of the article is to identify the features and analyze the dynamics of financial and consumer behavior of the population of the Russian Federation in the regional context. The article studies the financial and consumer behavior of the population of Russian regions, both in time and spatial terms, based on open data from SBER. The spatial regression heterogeneity of data is proved by using the multidimensional classification methods and the time heterogeneity of data is proved by using special statistical criteria used in time series analysis. The revealed differentiation of the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of financial and consumer behavior shows the stability of the class with the highest incomes and consumer expenditures. This class includes the capital regions and the Northern regions where mining operations as economic activity is developed. Meanwhile, almost all of Central Russia belongs to regions with very low incomes, which means that the population of these regions does not have the opportunity to saving up. The population of these regions is characterized by the lowest spending not only in restaurants, but also in fast food cafes. The developed system of equations model based on panel data has a scientific novelty, which allows displaying structural relationships between the population’s income, financial and consumer behavior. In future research, when information for 2020 becomes publicly available, the model parameters should be re-evaluated, and to account for the impact of quarantine measures, appropriate variables (dummies, perhaps) may be introduced into the model. The obtained results and conclusions can be used in the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of projects aimed at demographic development or any socio-economic programs.

Strategy of Socio-Demographic Development of Russia and the Main Guidelines for Social Doctrine of the Russian Federation in 2025–2030

2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-21
Author(s):  
Valentina G. Dobrokhleb ◽  
◽  
Tatiana Y. Yakovets ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Social Doctrine ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article analyzes the current situation and long-term strategy in the sphere of fertility and mortality in Russia. Methodology for elaborating the social doctrine of the Russian Federation in 2025–2030 is addressed.

TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIGRATION POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE CONDITIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS (STATEMENT OF THE QUESTION)

2021 ◽  
pp. 76-86
Author(s):  
Alexandra G. Grishanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Demographic Policy

The article discusses the theoretical and practical aspects of the migration policy of the Russian Federation in the context of the demographic crisis in 2021-2025, in the coordinates of the implementation of the activities of the plan for the second period of stage III of the Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation until 2025, approved by the Order of September 16, 2021 No. 2580-r .2 The features of the demographic development of individual subjects of the Russian Federation in 2020 are discussed. The article deals with the issues of the methodology for analyzing migration processes as complex simultaneously social, economic, and demographic processes with the smallest inertial lag. The issue of legitimacy in these extraordinary objective and subjective conditions — raised in September 2021, is brought up for discussion. By the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, the task of reaching positive dynamics of the population already by the end of 2024, the choice of priority constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in order to activate in the conditions of the demographic crisis, at the regional level, the peculiar "points of growth" and specific situational measures of migration policy in the Russian Federation are not at the federal level, but at the level of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Especially those who, in the emergency sanitary and epidemiological conditions of 2020, despite the pandemic, came with a positive contribution of migration to their demographic development. The proposal of S.V. Ryazantsev on the priorities of migration policy for the countries of Central Asia is being considered.

The demographic development of the Finno-Ugric peoples in the modern world

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 759-779
Author(s):  
E.V. Molchanova
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Research ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Regional Medical ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Special Information ◽  
Health Organization

Subject. This study focuses on the Finno-Ugric peoples carrying unique cultural customs and traditions. Objectives. I evaluate how various factors influence the demographic development of the Finno-Ugric peoples. Methods. Analyzing the current situation, I refer to official statistics and the Health for All database of the World Health Organization, statistical yearbooks of the Russian State Statistics Service. All data were organized as a special information system including several related blocks, such as economic development of locations, demographic situation, health and healthcare. Research was based on the comparative analysis of key medical-demographic and socio-economic indicators, and economic-mathematical apparatus. Results. I comprehensively evaluated the current situation macro- and mesoeconomically by gradually shifting from the comparison of countries to regional trends. I traced patterns of medical and demographic processes in the Finno-Ugric countries, such as Hungary, Finland and Estonia, and national autonomies across Russia. Conclusions and Relevance. I discovered that there is a certain relationship between a man and environment that translate into physical and physical health of people. They should be taken into consideration when outlining demographic development programs. The findings can be used to prepare regional medical and demographic documents, including the prevention of suicidal behavior and alcoholism and general medical services.

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