scholarly journals Using the Delphi Method in Forecasting Tourism Activity

Author(s):  
Vladimir Modrak ◽  
Petre Bosun

Delphi method is used to obtain usually medium or long-term forecasts, which involves establishing a consensus from a panel of experts asked to make estimates about the evolution of the economical phenomenon. If it cannot be obtain the wished consensus, the opinions having a certain degree of divergence, it aims to reduce as much of this dispersion, without a direct influence on the panel of experts, using a framework in which their expert feedback drive to the conclusion of the study. Of course there are some advantages and disadvantages of this method and these are presented in the article content.

Author(s):  
Rostislav Fojtík

Abstract Distance learning and e-learning have significantly developed in recent years. It is also due to changing educational requirements, especially for adults. The article aims to show the advantages and disadvantages of distance learning. Examples of the 20-year use of the distance learning form of computer science describe the difficulties associated with the implementation and implementation of this form of teaching. The results of students in the full-time and distance form of teaching in the bachelor’s study of computer science are compared. Long-term findings show that distant students have significantly lower scores in the first years of study than full-time bachelor students. In the following years of study, the differences diminish, and students’ results are comparable. The article describes the possibilities of improving the quality of distance learning.


Author(s):  
Nils Johansson

AbstractA problem for a circular economy, embedded in its policies, tools, technologies and models, is that it is driven by the interests and needs of producers, rather than customers and users. This opinion paper focuses on an alternative form of governance—agreements, which thanks to their bargaining approach brings actors from across the value chain into the policy process. The purpose of this opinion paper is to uncover and analyse the potential of such agreements for a circular economy. Circular agreements aim at increasing the circulation of materials and are an emerging form of political governance within the EU. These agreements have different names, involve different actors and govern in different ways. However, circular agreements seem to work when other types of regulations fail to establish circulation. These agreements bring actors together and offer a platform for negotiating how advantages and disadvantages can be redistributed between actors in a way that is more suitable for a circular economy. However, circular agreements are dependent on other policy instruments to work and can generate a free-rider problem with uninvolved actors. The agreements may also become too detailed and long term, which leads to problem shifting and lock-ins, respectively.


Proceedings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Naciye Güliz Uğur

The extraordinary and tragic conditions that humanity has not experienced before in the modern period have become ordinary, namely, a “new normal” with the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has had frightening consequences for human health and has caused one million deaths as of September 2020. On the other hand, it has set a new standard of good habits, approaches, and benefits. Due to its global and long-term impact, this unique virus has laid the groundwork for unprecedented helping and sharing behaviors between people and countries. In this study, findings are compiled from the open-ended responses of 626 individuals, all of whom live in Turkey. Within the study’s scope, individuals were asked about the unique advantages and disadvantages of the restrictions imposed under COVID-19. While the categories of economy, social distance, and health came to the fore among the harms, the strengthening of family ties, adoption of technology, and the spread of solidarity culture were mentioned among the advantages.


2021 ◽  
pp. 68-71
Author(s):  
Igor M. Ageev ◽  
Yuri M. Rybin

The advantages and disadvantages of infrared and electrochemical gas analyzers for carbon dioxide CO2 are described. The possibility of using conductometric sensors with distilled water for monitoring the CO2 content in the air has been investigated. Two identical measuring systems were manufactured, each containing two open-type conductometric cells, a matching device and a personal computer. With the help of these complexes, experiments were carried out on the simultaneous measurement of the CO2 content in the air in two places (a laboratory room and a building in a forest, located at a distance of 15 km from each other) with deliberately different daily dynamics of the CO2 level change. A special experiment was carried out, which made it possible to obtain an estimate of the inertia of conductometric cells and a conversion factor for the values of CO2 content into standard units of measurement. It is shown that the daily dynamics of changes in the electrical conductivity of distilled water in open cells corresponds to the expected dynamics of changes in the CO2 content in the rooms where the measurements were carried out. The operability of the measuring complex and the possibility of creating on its basis a device for long-term monitoring of the CO2 content in the air mixture of gases has been confirmed. The principal high selectivity of the measuring complex to CO2 in relation to other gases of the atmosphere has been established.


The early and long-term development of promising young athletes is a decisive factor in being internationally competitive in top-level sports. Among the multitude of talent criteria suggested in the literature, motivation plays a prominent role in the area of psychological characteristics. It is recognised in practice and research as a relevant criterion for performance development across all sports. This article provides an overview of the current state of talent research in the field of motivation. First, the most common theories of motivation in competitive sports are described, then different measurement methods and their advantages and disadvantages as well as the predictive value of motivation for athletic performance are discussed. Finally, implications for practice are suggested. It can be summarised that motivation in sport is conceptualised and operationalised in different ways and that the decision for the right measurement instrument depends on the goal of the assessment. To get a comprehensive picture of an athlete’s motivational status, it is useful to assess several aspects of motivation through different methods.


Author(s):  
E. V. Kudryavtseva ◽  
V. V. Kovalev ◽  
E. S. Zakurinova ◽  
G. Muller-Kamskii ◽  
V. V. Popov

Introduction. Despite the notable and rapid progress in the development of medical 3D printing in recent years, not much is known about the use of this technology in obstetrics and gynecology.The purpose of our review of scientific literature was to determine the current level of 3D printing development, discuss the closest and long term prospects for using this technology in obstetrics and gynecology, and analyze its potential advantages and disadvantages.Materials and methods. We searched for scientific literature. 378 papers passed a three-step screening, as a result of which 42 sources were selected for the final scientific review.Results and discussion. The main areas in which dimensional printing can be used in this area of medicine is the creation of simulation models and training for students, the creation of anatomical models for preoperative preparation, the surgical instruments, the creation of new dosage drug forms (including transvaginal ones), and bioprinting of organs and tissues.Conclusion. The presented literary review allows us to conclude that 3D printing the obstetrics and gynecology is a current rapidly developing direction. The organization of 3D modeling and printing laboratories can significantly increase the efficiency of teaching students and residents. In addition, obstetricians-gynecologists and surgeons should be informed about the possibility of 3D printing surgical instruments according to an individual design. It can inspire them to implement their own ideas and develop domestic innovative developments. Three-dimensional printing of dosage forms and bioprostheses requires more complex technological solutions, and is not yet used in clinical practice. However, given the enormous prospects for these areas, various grants should be envisaged for their development in Russia


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Ann Ernisse

This practical thesis project report contains a conservation survey, condition report and collections care proposal for the World War I portrait collection at State Records of South Australia. The plan prescribes immediate, short term and long term recommendations for the improvement of preservation techniques for the World War I collection. The paper also contains information and results gathered through the condition report of the collection sample and conservation survey. The survey investigated the current environment and storage facilities, access, security and disaster planning surrounding the collection. The paper also outlines the practices and methodologies of the applied thesis for both the conservation survey and condition report. The collection care proposal assesses current practices in order to provide State Records with accurate goals that offer flexible options. A detailed list of housing recommendations is included in the proposal; an advantages and disadvantages assessment if included for each option to help State Records better fit its needs and abilities in the future. Charts showing the results of the condition report and environmental assessment from the conservation survey are included in the appendix for further reference. This project is intended to draw attention to the urgent need for better preservation practices for the World War I portrait collection.


Author(s):  
Soheil Manouchehri

Offshore and subsea decommissioning will increase in the next five years or so as many producing fields are matured and cease production while the oil price continues to remain low. This emphasizes the need for a thorough decommissioning plan to ensure a safe and technically feasible solution while it is economically viable and safeguards the environment. Offshore and subsea decommissioning is commonly considered on a case-by-case basis using the Comparative Assessment (CA) process in which the best decommissioning solution is obtained. Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) considerations are always paramount in any decommissioning process. The aim is to significantly reduce the long term risks to other benefactors of the sea while the associated short term risks to those responsible for decommissioning operations are minimized. A major part of any decommissioning project is subsea pipelines decommissioning (by “pipelines”, it is meant to include flowlines, trunklines and flexible too). There are a number of techniques available for decommissioning of subsea pipelines ranging from preservation for potential future use to full recovery or leaving in-situ. However, each subsea pipeline decommissioning technique should be considered on its own merit. Selection of each decommissioning technique depends on many parameters, inter alia, size of pipeline, type of pipeline (e.g. single pipe, pipe-in-pipe, piggyback), type of conveying fluid, operational environment (location), production history, Inspection, Repair and Maintenance (IRM) records, HSE considerations, connection to other facilities, technical feasibility (including potential use of advanced technologies), regulatory authorities requirements and socio-economic considerations. This paper will look at specifics of subsea pipelines decommissioning. It will examine the procedures to be undertaken from desk top activities (e.g. planning and CA) up to operational activities (e.g. pigging, flushing, cleaning, removal or leaving in-situ). Different scenarios are discussed and potential advantages and disadvantages of each scenario are presented. In addition, a guide is proposed for future pipelines decommissioning projects to follow a rational approach.


Author(s):  
Petri Bellova ◽  
Jens Goronzy ◽  
Roman Riedel ◽  
Tim Grothe ◽  
Albrecht Hartmann ◽  
...  

AbstractDual-mobility cups (DMCs) were introduced in France more than 40 years ago and are increasingly used not only in hip revision but also primary hip arthroplasty. Due to a simulated large-head articulation and increased jumping distance, DMCs can contribute to a high range of motion in the hip joint and reduce the risk of instability. Numerous studies have reported low dislocation rates and high survival rates in the mid-term follow-up. Nevertheless, long-term data, especially on primary hip replacement, remain limited, and the effect of recent designs and material innovations is still unclear. Therefore, primary DMCs are mainly proposed in patients at high risk for dislocation (i.e. pelvitrochanteric insufficiency, compromised spinopelvic mobility, neuromuscular disorders, obesity and femoral neck fractures). Based on a review of recently published studies referring to these indications, the current study discusses the advantages and disadvantages of DMCs.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document