Numerical assessment of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2 using multicompartmental models with distributed parameters

2021 ◽  
pp. 109-120
Author(s):  
Evgenii O. Burlakov ◽  
Feruzbek B. Kayumov ◽  
Irina D. Serova
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Study ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Explicit Estimate ◽  
Distributed Parameters ◽  
Numerical Assessment ◽  
Delay Effects ◽  
Spread Dynamics ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Spread Parameters

We propose multicompartmental models of infectious diseases dynamics for numerical study of the spread parameters of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2, which take into account the delay effects associated with the presence of the latent period of the infection, as well as the possibility of an asymptomatic course of the disease. The dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation was investigated, using these models with distributed parameters that formalize the interactions of the models’ compartments. The paper provides numerical estimates of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection in various age groups of the population. We also investigate possible consequences of the mask regime and quarantine measures. We obtain an explicit estimate allowing to assess the necessary scope of these measures for the epidemy extinction.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Features of New Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19). Communication 1: Modes of Implementation of Preventive and Anti-Epidemic Measures

2020 ◽  
pp. 6-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. V. Kutyrev ◽  
A. Yu. Popova ◽  
V. Yu. Smolensky ◽  
E. B. Ezhlova ◽  
Yu. V. Demina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Course ◽  
General Structure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
Response Models ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The World ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation

The review analyses the information on the epidemiological situation on COVID-19 around the world. Presented is the assessment of the major epidemiological parameters (basic reproductive rate, lethality, incubation period, and serial interval). Demonstrated is the share of severe cases among different age groups and the general structure of incidence by the severity of clinical course. The paper provides the classification of response models internationally depending upon the complex of measures undertaken at different stages of epidemic process. Reviewed are the key response actions to control the COVID-19 transmission in different countries of the world and the Russian Federation and given is the assessment of their effectiveness.

scholarly journals THE STRUCTURE OF EXCESS MORTALITY DUE TO THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS INFECTION PANDEMIC IN URBAN AND RURAL RESIDENTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
T.P. Sabgayda ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Urban And Rural Residents ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Direct Loss ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Significance. The pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection has further exacerbated the demographic problem in the Russian Federation, which was especially acute in rural areas. However, according to official data, only one third of the excess mortality in 2020 is accounted for by COVID-19. Purpose: to compare the structure of mortality growth in urban and rural residents and determine differences in loss associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and methods. Based on the Rosstat preliminary data, the author has analyzed increase in the number of deaths per 100,000 population in 2020 compared to 2019 among males and females residing in urban and rural areas of the Russian Federation. The indicators were compared by major classes of death causes and individual diseases across the following three age groups: 15-49 years, 50-64 years, and 65 years and older. Comparison was carried out by the Chi-square test. Results. Among the urban and rural population the death rate increased by 20.6% and 15.4%, respectively; the COVID-19 mortality equaled to 109.4 and 67.5 per 100,000 population; the share of COVID-19 in the increased total mortality added up to 44.6% and 33.0%, respectively. Among urban residents, the frequency of deaths from COVID-19 in males exceeds the female one 1.8 times in population aged 15-49, 2.0 times in population aged 50-64 and 65 +; among rural residents, these values equal to 1.2, 1.4 and 1.8, respectively. Conclusion. In the structure of excess mortality associated with the spread of the novel coronavirus infection that accounted for almost one fifth of deaths in 2019, the share of direct loss due to COVID-19 is underestimated. The direct loss associated with co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus can be traced at the population level, starting from the age of 65 in males and 50 years in females, in case of deaths from diseases of the nervous system, coronary heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract and diseases of the pancreas. With a lower level of excess mortality among rural population, its quarter is accounted for by indirect loss due to the pandemic associated with the decreased access to medical care. In the structure of excess mortality among urban population, indirect loss accounts for about one tenth, and is mainly due to consequences of stress associated with the pandemic and forced isolation. Signs of incomplete examination of the deceased in older age groups to determine the death causes, especially among rural residents, have been identified.

Epidemiological features of age-gender distribution of coronavirus infection COVID-19 incidence and mortality (review)

2021 ◽  
pp. 18-31
Author(s):  
Alla Nikolaevna Kaira ◽  
Oksana Anatolievna Svitich ◽  
Alena Andreevna Murzina
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Internet Resources ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Mortality Review ◽  
Gender Characteristics ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation

The review of available literature sources and Internet resources for 2019–2021 is presented. It is devoted to the age-gender characteristics of the incidence of COVID-19, as well as mortality and mortality as a result of coronavirus infection in the world and in the Russian Federation as of May 2021. It is established that the main number of cases of new coronavirus infection is concentrated among the young working population from 40 to 59 years. At the same time, some countries have their own characteristics with a shift to younger age groups. There were no significant differences between men and women, with the exception of the age group of 85 years and older, where the female population prevails. The analysis of lethality showed that the most vulnerable groups are those over 80 years of age.

scholarly journals Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Labor Market

Federalism ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-19
Author(s):  
K. E. Laikam ◽  
A. R. Bikbaeva ◽  
E. K. Pavlova
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Third ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation

The coronavirus pandemic has affected all spheres of society, including a significant impact on labor markets. The article presents a statistical analysis of trends in the Russian labor market in the context of the spread of coronavirus infection in 2020 and in the first half of 2021. On average, in 2020, the number of people employed in the economy field decreased by almost 2%, respectively, the number of unemployed increased by 25%. Within 2020, the peak of unemployment growth occurred in the third quarter of 2020, when the decline in the number of employed reached 1,9 million people, and the increase in the number of unemployed – 1,5 million people. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased to 6,4%, i.e. by almost a half compared to the corresponding period of 2019. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2020, the recovery of the Russian labor market began. By July 2021, the unemployment rate had dropped to 4,8%. Such serious transformations of the Russian labor market required an analysis of the dynamics and structure of employment in various sections: by type of economic activity, by subjects of the Russian Federation, by gender, by age groups, by place of residence. Along with this, the authors compared the indicators of the unemployment rate, which was calculated using two methods used in Russian statistical practice. An international comparison of the unemployment rate for 2020–2021 was carried out. The indicators characterizing the underutilization of labor, including the number and level of potential labor, are considered. The dynamics of wages in 2019–2021 is considered. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the situation with workers’ wages at the most acute moment of the crisis – in April 2020.

SOME FEATURES OF CRIMINAL PROCEDURE IN RUSSIA IN CONNECTION WITH THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTION (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
YURI FRANCIFOROV ◽  
◽  
MARINA BARANOVA
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Judicial System ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Judicial Proceedings ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Judicial Actions ◽  
Emergency Measures

The purpose of the article is to consider the peculiarities of investigative and judicial actions that are caused by their postponement, the inability to attract a lawyer, as well as the suspension of the preliminary investigation during the period of emergency measures taken by the government of the Russian Federation in response to the outbreak of the coronavirus infection pandemic (COVID-19). The authorsanalyze the features of the courts activity in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, which is associated with minimizing the personal reception of citizens and submitting documents via electronic Internet reception offices of courts or by Russian Post, as well as the possibility of conducting online court sessions. The authors come to the conclusion that the judicial system was not sufficiently prepared for the pandemic, and therefore it is urgently necessary to adopt a special normative act that would regulate the implementation of judicial proceedings in emergency situations, allowing to continue to consider urgent cases, including materials on the election, extension, cancellation or change of a preventive measure.

Foundation for the Prevention and Pathological Aspects of Diseases of the Mucous Membranes of the Oral Cavity (Review)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 8-11
Author(s):  
Bakaev Zh. N.
Keyword(s):  
Oral Cavity ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Urban Residents ◽  
Volgograd Region ◽  
Mucous Membranes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Two Age Groups

According to the authors, the prevalence of SOPR diseases is from 3 to 20%.In a study of 1573 residents of southern China in two age groups who use tobacco and alcohol, the incidence of SOPR was higher among men living in rural areas compared to urban residents. Among women aged 35-44 years, the incidence was higher in urban women, and in the 65-77-year-old group in rural women. In the course of studies in Brazil, among 335 patients older than 60 years, 646 diseases of the SOPR were identified. Similar results were obtained in the analysis of SOPR diseases in the Volgograd region of the Russian Federation

Recommendations of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation on the formation of a temporary staff table of a medical organization providing medical care to citizens with coronavirus infection COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
Olga Shinkareva
Keyword(s):  
Medical Care ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Medical Organization ◽  
Ministry Of Health ◽  
Organization Of Work ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation

Article is devoted to the analysis of the Order of the Russian Ministry of Health of 19.03.2020 № 198n (an edition of 29.04.2020) “About a temporary order of the organization of work of the medical organizations for implementation of measures for prevention and reduction of risk of spread of a new koronavirusny infection of COVID19” regarding formation of the temporary staff list of the division of the medical organization providing medical care to citizens with a koronavirusny infection of COVID-19 and also the requirement with the staff of this division. The criteria recommended by the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation for determining the number of rates of medical workers in these divisions, requirements for medical workers of the division have been considered, a practical example of calculation of rates has been given.

Analysis of vitamin D deficiency in patients of different age groups

2020 ◽  
pp. 64-70
Author(s):  
Timur Minasov ◽  
Radik Nurlygayanov ◽  
Angela Vershinina ◽  
Yulia Soboleva ◽  
Damir Akhmeldinov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin D ◽  
Blood Serum ◽  
Vitamin D Deficiency ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Physiological Values

The results of a study of the concentration of vitamin D in blood serum of 3455 residents of Ufa are presented. Physiological values of 25(OH)D were observed in 34.9 % (274) of men and 31.7 % (847) of women, which is 32.4 % (1121) of all examined. Vitamin D deficiency was detected in 67.1 % of the examined. The level of 25(OH)D in the blood serum of residents is on average 75 nmol/L, which is the upper limit of vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D deficiency is extremely common among residents of this region of the Russian Federation (67.1 %).

Impact of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Pregnant Women: A Review

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saima Habeeb ◽  
Manju Chugani
Keyword(s):  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Vertical Transmission ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Fetal Outcome ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

: The novel coronavirus infection (COVID‐19) is a global public health emergency.Since its outbreak in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the infection has spread at an alarming rate across the globe and humans have been locked down to their countries, cities and homes. As of now, the virus has affected over 20million people globally and has inflicted over 7 lac deaths. Nevertheless, the recovery rate is improving with each passing day and over 14 million people have recuperated so far. The statistics indicate that nobody is immune to the disease as the virus continues to spread among all age groups; newborns to the elders, and all compartmentsincluding pregnant women. However, pregnant women may be more susceptible to this infection as they are, in general, highly vulnerable to respiratory infections. There is no evidence for vertical transmission of the COVID-19 virus among pregnant women, but an increased prevalence of preterm deliveries. Besides this, the COVID-19 may alter immune response at the maternal-fetal interface and affect the well-being of mothers as well as infants. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence available in the open literature regarding coronavirus infection during pregnancy and it now appears that certain pregnant women have infected during the present 2019-nCoV pandemic. In this short communication, we study the impact of the COVID-19 infection on vertical transmission and fetal outcome among pregnant women.

About the priority measures taken by the state authorities of Russia in connection with the spread of coronavirus infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
VIKTOR A. TSIBIKOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Interagency Cooperation ◽  
Technical Base ◽  
National Security Strategy ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Goals And Objectives

The article deals with the work of Russian state authorities during the period when a new coronavirus infection (SARSCoV- 2, previously – 2019-nCoV) threatens to spread and enter the national territory. The algorithm of work and the practical measures taken to combat infection from the point of view of the requirements of the national security Strategy of the Russian Federation, as well as Federal and regional regulatory legal acts in terms of protection are analyzed. The issues of the formation of special temporary governing bodies, the goals and objectives of their activities, as well as the forms of work used: monitoring the situation, rulemaking, interagency cooperation, building up forces and means to combat the pandemic, using the information and technical base, informing the population, supporting certain sectors of the economy and certain categories of citizens are considered. Conclusions are drawn about the organized, complex and interdepartmental nature of the events, the need to improve legislation in terms of establishing legal liability for offenses under the quarantine regime, creating conditions to prevent unjustified price increases for certain types of goods, systematically informing the population and preventing the spread of false rumors, the need to support certain sectors of the economy and certain categories of citizens.

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