scholarly journals Stochastic forecast of the population of Central Serbia based on empiric forecast errors

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-31
Author(s):  
Vladimir Nikitovic
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Probabilistic Concept ◽  
Stochastic Basis ◽  
Mutual Comparison ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
Stochastic Element

Based on the example of the forecast of the population of Central Serbia for the 2005-2032 period, the basic probabilistic concept in forecasting the trends of demographic components of population development have been presented. The stochastic element of forecast is based on the analysis of empirical forecast errors of corresponding indicators of demographic development. The analysis frameworks were forecasts of official bureaus of statistics published during the second half of the 20th century. The statistical distribution of probability for chosen forecast parameters were formed around so called middle variant of corresponding indicators in the current national forecast of population, published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) for the period 2002-2032. The basic characteristics of the probabilistic approach of forecasting were presented through mutual comparison of the main methodological assumptions, namely though comparative demographic-statistical valorization of results with traditional deterministic concept, represented by forecasts of RSB. The stochastic forecast of the population of Serbia clearly indicated to the key advantages of this approach: methodological consistency in quantifying demographic indicators as well as the possibility of transparent usage of results in numerous aspects of social planning. In this way the significance of the necessity for the elaboration of a studious national forecast of the population of Serbia completely based on a stochastic basis has been stressed, regardless of the still-present restrictions in the development of the probabilistic approach.

Study of the Historical Demography of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th — Early 21st Centuries. Part one

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
R.T. Elemanova
Keyword(s):  
Historical Demography ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Historical Science ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Cultural Changes ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

The article is the first part of the study, which examines the issues related to the study of the history of population and historical demography of Kyrgyzstan. The emphasis is made on the issues of historiography on the basis of scientific literature on the problems of history and demography of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th — 21st centuries. The analysis and assessment of the main demographic indicators of the population of Kyrgyzstan in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods is considered, the process of change in demographic policy, as well as its impact on the socio-economic situation in the republic, are analyzed. It is concluded that the historiography of the historical demography of Kyrgyzstan is based on macro approaches to the study of demography processes, which was typical for Soviet historical science as a whole. The main problems of studying the history of the population of Kyrgyzstan, to which researchers were addressed, were the population census, changes in the number and distribution of the Kyrgyz, the impact of the 1916 uprising. on the demographic development of the Kyrgyz people, the settlement of nomads on the land, socio-cultural changes in Kyrgyzstan and their impact on the change of demographic characteristics. Much attention was also paid to public policy in the field of governance and influence on demographic processes.

Medical and demographic particularities of municipalities in the Republic of Karelia

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 966-991
Author(s):  
E.V. Molchanova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
The Public ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Regional Medical ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Development Methods

Subject. This article explores the medical and demographic processes in the Republic of Karelia. Objectives. The article aims to assess the impact of various factors on regional medical and demographic processes in the context of socio-economic transformation and digital healthcare development. Methods. For the study, I used a comparative analysis and economic and mathematical methods. Results. The article reveals demographic features of population resettlement in the Republic of Karelia and patterns of medical and demographic processes in the municipalities of the region. It describes the relationship between socio-economic and medical and demographic indicators, and identifies the benefits and possible risk of introducing modern technologies into real clinical practice. Conclusions. There are certain man-environment relationships that affect the public health. These relationships need to be taken into account when forming demographic development programmes.

Dynamic monitoring of changes in medical and demographic indicators in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) from 1998 to 2018

2020 ◽  
pp. 33-36
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Dynamic Monitoring ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic

We studied the medical and demographic indicators in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the last 20 years (1998–2018). A decrease in the population by 4,7 % (р<0,01) was revealed in the Russian Federation in the period 1998–2008, 3,4 % decrease, followed by its growth by 2,8 % (р<0,01); a decrease in the number of rural population in the republic and an increase in the urban population were observed. By the beginning of 2019, in comparison with the 2003 data, an increase in the population by 1.9% (р<0,01), a decrease in the number of able-bodied people in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) at the beginning of 2019, as compared to 1998, were revealed, by 8,2 %, in the Russian Federation – by 4,7 % (р<0,01). In the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) the birth rate remains high, the mortality rate is relatively low, and the natural population growth is maintained.

scholarly journals Franjo Tuđman and Demographic Revitalization/Sustainability of Croatia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-147
Author(s):  
Dražen Živić
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Demographic Challenges ◽  
Demographic Aging ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
And Migration

According to a number of relevant demographic and statistical indicators, Croatia is in a deep demographic crisis in all aspects of demographic dynamics and structural-demographic development. Total depopulation, natural decline, negative migration balance, demographic aging, and spatial polarization of the population – are fundamental long-term and current demographic trends and processes that, thanks to available data from census, vital and migration statistics can be monitored almost continuously from the middle of last century until today. The current demographic picture of Croatia is marked by natural and mechanical population losses, which means more deaths from birth and more emigration than immigration, with significantly disturbed relations between large (functional) age groups that threaten further collapse of bio reproductive potential and economic activity of the population. Croatian demographers warned of this circumstance during socialist Yugoslavia, especially after reaching independence in 1991. In their research, they were especially committed to the design and implementation of active and stimulating population policies, which had a certain impact in the formation of some decisions and documents of Croatian state policy during the 1990s. In this sense, it is scientifically relevant to valorize Dr. Tuđman’s attitude towards Croatian demographic issues, because demographic challenges have been and still are in significant discrepancy with socially desirable demographic pro-cesses and trends as key factors in the development and progress of the Croatian state and society, especially from 1991 and onwards. Therefore, in the context of Tuđman’s work as a politician (president of the Croatian Democratic Union from 1989 to 1999) and statesman (president of the Republic of Croatia from 1990 to 1999), but also as a scientist and public figure (director of the Institute for the History of the Labor Movement from 1961 to 1967) it is useful to investigate whether and to what extent there is a consistent attitude towards the demographic situation and problems of Croatia and, accordingly, whether we find the issue of Croatian demography at the center or on the margins of interest in his public work.

scholarly journals Pravni položaj poštenog i nepoštenog posjednika u odnosu na vlasnika stvari

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 527-543
Author(s):  
Jadranko Jug
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Case Law ◽  
Basic Method ◽  
Unjust Enrichment ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Legal Position ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
The Right

This paper deals with the problems related to the legal position of honest and dishonest possessors in relation to the owner of things, that is, it analyses the rights belonging to the possessors of things and the demands that possessors may require from the owners of things to whom the possessors must submit those things. Also, in contrast, the rights and requirements are analysed of the owners of things in relation to honest and dishonest possessors. In practice, a dilemma arises in defi ning the essential and benefi cial expenditure incurred by honest possessors, what the presumptions are for and until when the right of retention may be exercised for the sake of remuneration of that expenditure, when the statute of limitations expires on that claim, and the signifi cance of the provisions of the Civil Obligations Act in relation to unjust enrichment, management without mandate and the right of retention, and which provisions regulate these or similar issues. The answers to some of these dilemmas have been provided in case law, and therefore the basic method used in the paper was analysis and research of case law, especially decisions by the Supreme Court of the Republic of Croatia. The introduction to the paper provides the basic characteristics of the concept of possession and possession of things, and the type and quality of possession, to provide a basis for the subsequent analysis of the legal position of the possessor of a thing in relation to the owner of that thing.

DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL AREAS IN THE SARATOV REGION AND THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 937-950
Author(s):  
M.S. Yurkova ◽  
◽  
G.A. Ermakova ◽  
E.A. Likhovtsova ◽  
Ch.U. Akimbekova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Legal Aspects ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Social Bias ◽  
Saratov Region ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Social Organizational ◽  
The Village

The article analyzes the main organizational and legal aspects and administrative decisions in the field of ensuring and regulating the socio-economic and demographic development of the village at the regional level using the example of the Saratov region. The foreign experience is also considered on the example of Kazakhstan and its domestic policy of development of rural areas. The most effective measures in this area will be carried out taking into account regional characteristics and national and cultural values in order to eliminate the existing shortcomings associated with the emergence of depopulation of rural areas and the underestimation of its consequences, the absence of hierarchically aligned priorities in the implementation of socio-economic policy. The basis for the development of the village is the creation of prerequisites for the formation of points of growth in socio-cultural and economic spheres and should be carried out on the basis of an increase in the income of residents, an increase in labor productivity and the use of various alternative factors inherent in a market economy with a social bias. It is required to create the necessary conditions to improve the quality of life of the population of the village at the expense of state support funds, the use of part of the profits of large agricultural formations and rich peasant (farmer) households. Regulation of labor migration is necessary at the level of not only making appropriate state decisions (regional or local), but also establishing social, organizational and economic measures by agricultural and other producers themselves in order to prevent the outflow of the able-bodied population. It is also required to generate the necessary conditions for effective employment of the population in rural areas based on the development of agricultural and non-agricultural activities based on the needs of the consumer market.

scholarly journals Demografsko starenje stanovništva Šibensko-kninske županije: grandparent boom

Geoadria ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Snježana Mrđen ◽  
Dolores Barić
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Spatial Differentiation ◽  
Ageing Process ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Rural Exodus ◽  
Littoral Area

This paper analyses demographic ageing of the population in the County of Šibenik-Knin by using basic demographic indicators based on data collected from population censuses from 1971 to 2011. It analyses spatial differentiation of the ageing process at the level of the County, micro-regions, towns/municipalities and settlements. The research also provides a comparison of population ageing in different counties of the Republic of Croatia, from which it is evident that the County of Šibenik-Knin, as well as the Country of Lika-Senj, has the oldest population in Croatia. Ageing in the County of Šibenik-Knin, which was triggered by extreme rural exodus that was most intensive from the end of 1960s to the early 1970s, as well as by continuous declining fertility rates and by inherited age composition, was recorded at all territorial levels of the County. Although the ageing process started in littoral area (Primorje), hinterland (Zagora) experienced a faster and more intensive ageing. Based on numerous indicators of demographic ageing and its intensity, and compared with the point value indicators of ageing, it is evident that the population of the County of Šibenik-Knin is characterized by advanced old age. However, more than half of the observed settlements are characterized by very advanced or extremely advanced old age.

scholarly journals Development of Marriage and Family Relationships in the Northern Regions of Russia

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Larisa A. Popova ◽  
Anastasiya S. Barashkova
Keyword(s):  
Family Relationships ◽  
Family Relations ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Komi Republic ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Marriage And Family ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Post War

The article deals with the mechanism of modern demographic development in Russia’s northern regions. The article studies the dynamics of marriage processes in the North in the post-war period, and reveals the current specifics of marriage and family relations. The authors analyze in more detail the situation in the two big northern republics: the Komi Republic and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). They identify factors that determined a significant decrease of marriage rate in the 1990s and the relative normalization of marital and family processes in recent years. The article outlines the main directions of demographic policies in the northern regions.

scholarly journals Biomedical Journals in Republic of Macedonia: the Current State

PRILOZI ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
Momir Polenakovic ◽  
Lenche Danevska
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Biomedical Science ◽  
Bibliographic Databases ◽  
Medical Sciences ◽  
Republic Of Macedonia ◽  
Pubmed Database ◽  
Biomedical Journals ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

AbstractSeveral biomedical journals in the Republic of Macedonia have succeeded in maintaining regular publication over the years, but only a few have a long-standing tradition. In this paper we present the basic characteristics of 18 biomedical journals that have been published without a break in the Republic of Macedonia. Of these, more details are given for 14 journals, a particular emphasis being on the journal Prilozi/Contributions of the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Section of Medical Sciences as one of the journals with a long-term publishing tra-dition and one of the journals included in the Medline/PubMed database. A brief or broad description is given for the following journals: Macedonian Medical Review, Acta Morphologica, Physioacta, MJMS - Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences, International Medical Journal Medicus, Archives of Public Health, Epilepsy, Macedonian Orthopaedics and Traumatology Journal, BANTAO Journal, Macedonian Dental Review, Macedonian Pharmaceutical Bulletin, Macedonian Veterinary Review, Journal of Special Education and Rehabilitation, Balkan Journal of Medical Genetics, Contributions of the Macedonian Scientific Society of Bitola, Vox Medici, Social Medicine: Professional Journal for Public Health, and Prilozi/Contributions of the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts. Journals from Macedonia should aim to be published regularly, should comply with the Uniform requirements for manuscripts submitted to biomedical journals, and with the recommendations of reliable organizations working in the field of publishing and research. These are the key prerequisites which Macedonian journals have to accomplish in order to b? included in renowned international bibliographic databases. Thus the results of biomedical science from the Republic of Macedonia will be presented to the international scientific arena.

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