scholarly journals Scenario Planning for Resilient Agricultural Systems: A Process for Engaging Controversy

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (Summer 2021) ◽  
Author(s):  
Crystal Powers ◽  
Tyler Williams ◽  
Rick Stowell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Robust Adaptive

Resiliency to weather extremes is already a part of farming in the North Plains, but now climate change is adding new uncertainties. Engaging farmers on this often controversial topic can be challenging given the wide range of beliefs farmers hold about climate change. Scenario planning provides a framework for Extension and agricultural system stakeholders to come together using the latest climate science to discover robust adaptive management options, prioritize Extension programming needs, and provide an open forum for starting the discussion.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Functional Zoning Concept under Climate Change to Expand the Portfolio of Adaptation Options

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Samuel Royer-Tardif ◽  
Jürgen Bauhus ◽  
Frédérik Doyon ◽  
Philippe Nolet ◽  
Nelson Thiffault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Multiple Use ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Good Communication ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Functional Zoning ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adaptation Options

Climate change is threatening our ability to manage forest ecosystems sustainably. Despite strong consensus on the need for a broad portfolio of options to face this challenge, diversified management options have yet to be widely implemented. Inspired by functional zoning, a concept aimed at optimizing biodiversity conservation and wood production in multiple-use forest landscapes, we present a portfolio of management options that intersects management objectives with forest vulnerability to better address the wide range of goals inherent to forest management under climate change. Using this approach, we illustrate how different adaptation options could be implemented when faced with impacts related to climate change and its uncertainty. These options range from establishing ecological reserves in climatic refuges, where self-organizing ecological processes can result in resilient forests, to intensive plantation silviculture that could ensure a stable wood supply in an uncertain future. While adaptation measures in forests that are less vulnerable correspond to the traditional functional zoning management objectives, forests with higher vulnerability might be candidates for transformative measures as they may be more susceptible to abrupt changes in structure and composition. To illustrate how this portfolio of management options could be applied, we present a theoretical case study for the eastern boreal forest of Canada. Even if these options are supported by solid evidence, their implementation across the landscape may present some challenges and will require good communication among stakeholders and with the public.

Health, sustainability, and climate change

2013 ◽  
pp. 548-555
Author(s):  
David Pencheon ◽  
Sonia Roschnik ◽  
Paul Cosford
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Public Health Practice ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Diverse Group ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Good For

This chapter will help you understand the relationships between health, health care, sustainability, climate change, and carbon reduction, locally and globally. The specific objectives of the chapter are to help you make the case for action by showing how health, health care, sustainable development, and climate change are linked positively such that what is good for mitigating climate change is also good for health and health care today, translate science into policy and practice and help move research and action about climate science into policy and practice, and engage a wide range of stakeholders and appreciate that, as in much public health practice, appropriate action comes from involving a diverse group of people through genuine engagement.

scholarly journals Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 2389-2403
Author(s):  
Ismael Núñez-Riboni ◽  
Marc H Taylor ◽  
Alexander Kempf ◽  
Miriam Püts ◽  
Moritz Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Southern Bight ◽  
Spatially Resolved ◽  
The North

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Mary Meldrum ◽  
David Szymanski ◽  
Eric A. Oches ◽  
P. Thompson Davis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
Visual Imagery ◽  
General Public ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Visual Presentation ◽  
Visual Images ◽  
Wide Range

Broadcast meteorologists are trusted by the general public to convey knowledge on climate change and they make choices about what information to present to their viewing audiences. Interviews with broadcast meteorologists revealed a wide range in their knowledge base and confidence in conveying climate science to their audiences. However, all interviewees agreed that visual images are an essential means for communicating with their viewers. Three major themes emerged from interviews with participants: visual imagery is important, dramatic images are powerful motivators, and the new visual presentation technologies have great value.

Drought and water management in the German agricultural sector - a participatory system dynamics approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Valencia ◽  
Sabine Egerer ◽  
María Máñez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

<p>Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change may potentially affect water availability for agriculture and increase the risk of crop loss in Northeast Lower Saxony (NELS), Germany. The drought of 2018 showed that an intensification of irrigation might be a temporary solution. However, a long-term increase in water extraction, especially during drought periods, is not a sustainable solution. To assess possible water management solutions, we implement a participatory system dynamics approach, namely Group Model Building, to develop a qualitative system dynamics model (QSDM) describing the agricultural system and its relation to water resources in NELS.</p><p>The development of the QSDM seeks to understand the complexity of the interactions between agriculture and hydrological systems, recognize the stakeholders’ needs and identify risks and weaknesses of both systems. By understanding this, we expect to reinforce the adaptation process, reduce conflict and be able to suggest tailored solutions and adaptation measures. The QSDM incorporates a wide range of perceptions, as twenty stakeholders ranging from farmers, government agencies, environmental protection organizations and local water authorities were involved in the QSDM development. Their perceptions were recorded in the QSDM through individual interviews and a group workshop.</p><p>Through the QSDM, we identified and mapped the structure and connections between agriculture and the water balance. It was also possible to identify the strongest feedback loops governing both sectors as well as their influence on the current situation. The loops represent behaviors and structures, which might become unmanageable under climate change conditions. The causal loops include the different uses for the available water of the region, the impact of irrigation, the significance of crop selection and the importance of sustainable soil management.</p><p>By analyzing the system this way, we confirmed that climate change poses a risk to the region as elevated temperatures could increase the crop water demand and increase the need for irrigation. In the same way, changes in the rain patterns could affect the water balance of the region. The agricultural system has, however, potential to adapt by implementing new water management strategies such as restructuring water rights, water storage and reuse and conjunctive water use. Other measures include increasing the irrigation efficiency, changing crops and enhancing the soil quality, among others.</p>

From climate projections to climate change services in Australia – retrospective and future directions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Clarke ◽  
Karl Braganza ◽  
Geoff Gooley ◽  
Michael Grose ◽  
Louise Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Help Desk ◽  
The North ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Australia is the World’s driest inhabited continent. It is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change: surrounded by sensitive marine ecosystems including the Great Barrier Reef, vulnerable to tropical cyclones and changing monsoonal patterns in the north, experiencing declining rainfall and runoff in the heavily populated southern and eastern parts of the country, and subject to increasingly severe bushfires. The ever-present flood, drought and bushfire cycles have historically motivated government investment in programs that aim to understand the nation’s climate and its drivers, and to inform adaptation planning and disaster risk management.</p><p>Accordingly, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have been at the forefront of understanding Australia’s past and future climate for four decades.</p><p>The most recent national climate projections were published in 2015. These focussed on the needs of the natural resource management sector and represented a first step towards delivery of climate change services tailored to the sector’s needs. Products included decision support tools and provision of training for capacity building. A key component of the research program was stakeholder engagement from inception. The resultant Climate Change in Australia website (www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au) and Help Desk represented the most ambitious steps to date towards a comprehensive Australian climate change service, and were a first attempt at user-driven information delivery.</p><p>Now five years on, users' needs have evolved substantially. Key drivers of this include: (1) the Paris Agreement (2015) to limit global temperature rise to below 2.0°C (ideally below 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels, (2) implications of the Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD, 2017), and (3) IPCC Special Reports. This has occurred on top of a trend towards increasingly sophisticated uses of climate projections datasets for decision-making. Existing products do not meet all user needs. There is a pronounced ‘pull’ from users of climate projections for sector-specific "decision-relevant" information for risk-management decisions. The cross-jurisdictional impacts of climate change have also resulted in a need for authoritative, standardized and quality-assured climate scenarios for the entire country, to facilitate whole of sector, cross-agency and multi-sector responses and adaptation. As Lourenco et al (2016) said, climate change services for Australia need to shift from “science-driven and user informed services to user-driven and science informed services.”</p><p>There is increased emphasis on sector-specific tools that aim to provide decision-relevant information and underpinning datasets. An ongoing challenge is the need to enable the uptake of climate information in decision-making. This necessitates a skill uplift on the user side. To date, efforts have focused on the water, finance, energy, and indigenous land management sectors. Increasingly, the focus within Australia is on working together across jurisdictional boundaries to provide nationally consistent information; with enhanced transparency drawing upon climate science resources within universities and all levels of government. Strong partnerships with the private sector are also needed in order to deliver to burgeoning demand. Success will require genuine co-design, co-production and co-evaluation of sector-specific products with a suite of support services appropriate to the needs of diverse users.</p>

scholarly journals Covering Copenhagen: Climate Politics in B.C. Media

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane Gunster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
The Political ◽  
Changement Climatique ◽  
Climate Politics ◽  
Ownership Structures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
Analyse De Discours

ABSTRACT  In December 2009, considerable media attention was devoted to climate change as global leaders gathered in Copenhagen for a two-week summit to negotiate an extension to the Kyoto Protocol. This article conducts a discourse and content analysis of how regional media in British Columbia covered the event, with a particular focus on how climate politics was framed. A wide range of sources encompassing different media and different ownership structures was analyzed. Debates about climate science played very little role in media coverage. Conversely, focus on the summit ensured that the political dimensions of climate change played a central role. Climate politics, however, was framed in very different ways by mainstream and alternative media.RÉSUMÉ  En décembre 2009, on porta une attention médiatique considérable sur le changement climatique lorsque des dirigeants mondiaux se sont rassemblés à Copenhague pour un sommet de deux semaines afin de négocier une extension du protocole de Kyoto. Cet article effectue une analyse de discours et de contenu sur la manière dont des médias régionaux en Colombie-Britannique ont couvert l’événement, en portant une attention particulière à la manière dont on présenta les politiques sur le climat. Nous avons analysé un vaste éventail de sources comprenant des médias et des structures de propriété différents. Les débats sur la science du climat ont joué un rôle étonnamment restreint dans la couverture médiatique. En revanche, l’attention portée au sommet était telle que les aspects politiques du changement climatique y ont joué un rôle central. Les médias dominants, cependant, ont présenté les politiques sur le climat très différemment par rapport aux médias alternatifs.

Climate change adaptation: integrating climate science into humanitarian work

2010 ◽  
Vol 92 (879) ◽  
pp. 693-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisette M. Braman ◽  
Pablo Suarez ◽  
Maarten K. van Aalst
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Humanitarian Organizations ◽  
New Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Vulnerable People ◽  
The Face ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Humanitarian Work

AbstractA changing climate means more work for humanitarian organizations. Vulnerable people served by the Red Cross/Red Crescent Movement are likely to experience new patterns of disasters. In the face of these rising dangers, science-based information about likely threats can be used to reduce risk and improve resource allocation. Examples such as the 2008 emergency appeal for flood preparedness in West Africa illustrate the benefits of turning early warnings into early actions at community, national, and regional levels, at timescales ranging from hours to decades ahead of a looming threat. By making better use of a wide range of new information, humanitarian organizations can enhance their work even in the face of the rising risks of climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland: is inclusion of habitat loss important?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Ferretto ◽  
Pete Smith ◽  
David Genney ◽  
Robin Matthews ◽  
Rob Brooker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Habitat Distribution ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Blanket Bog

AbstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to predict species ranges and their future distribution under climate change scenarios. In this study we applied Maxent, one of the most used SDMs, to project the distribution of some rare bryophyte species in Scotland in the 2050s. Most of these species are strongly linked to the blanket bog habitat, which is threatened by climate change in the near future. To assess the extent to which changes in habitat distribution leads to a different modelled distribution of the selected bryophytes, blanket bog distribution was included in the model as one of the explanatory variables for some species, and Maxent was run for three 2050s scenarios: once with the current blanket bog distribution and two other runs using the blanket bog distribution derived from two bioclimatic models (Lindsay modified and Blanket Bog Tree model) under the same climate change scenario. For seven out of nine of our studied bryophyte species, the modelled distribution in Scotland was predicted to decline, with some species retreating towards the north-west and other species almost disappearing. When the change in blanket bog distribution was also accounted for, further areas in the north/centre east of Scotland and in the south were predicted to be unfavourable for many of the species considered. Our findings suggest that when modelling species distributions, habitat distribution also needs to be considered, especially when there is a strong relationship between the species and a particular habitat.

Persistent Anomaly Changes in High-Resolution Climate Simulations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Gary M. Lackmann ◽  
Rebecca L. Miller ◽  
Walter A. Robinson ◽  
Allison C. Michaelis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Persistent Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPersistent anomalies (PAs) are associated with a variety of impactful weather extremes, prompting research into how their characteristics will respond to climate change. Previous studies, however, have not provided conclusive results, owing to the complexity of the phenomenon and to difficulties in general circulation model (GCM) representations of PAs. Here, we diagnose PA activity in ten years of current and projected future output from global, high-resolution (15-km mesh) time-slice simulations performed with the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A). These time slices span a range of ENSO states. They include high-resolution representations of sea-surface temperatures and GCM-based sea ice for present and future climates. Future projections, based on the RCP8.5 scenario, exhibit strong Arctic amplification and tropical upper warming, providing a valuable experiment with which to assess the impact of climate change on PA frequency. The MPAS-A present-climate simulations reproduce the main centers of observed PA activity, but with an eastward shift in the North Pacific and reduced amplitude in the North Atlantic. The overall frequency of positive PAs in the future simulations is similar to that in the present-day simulations, while negative PAs become less frequent. Although some regional changes emerge, the small, generally negative changes in PA frequency and meridional circulation index indicate that climate change does not lead to increased persistence of midlatitude flow anomalies or increased waviness in these simulations.

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