scholarly journals Controlling the cost of risk management by utilising a phase portrait methodology

Transport ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-321
Author(s):  
David Eaton ◽  
Seyyit Umit Dikmen ◽  
Rıfat Akbiyikli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Phase Portrait ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Analysis Approach ◽  
Natural Catastrophes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

The methodology developed in this study presents an approach to the concurrent evaluation of Risk Management (RM) effectiveness during project execution. The method proposed is an adaptation of an approach developed and advocated by Khlebopros et al. (2007) for the mathematical modelling of complex systems, namely the analysis and effects of natural catastrophes. Hence, the method utilizes a phase portrait approach to identify the Prime Cost (PC) of RM of a project. Furthermore, the method provides an approach for comparing the individual identified risks with this PC, and subsequently highlighting a way of classifying and prioritising risks into a rank order for RM attention. The MERA (Multiple Estimating Risk Analysis) approach was utilized for the quantification of risk impact and ultimately the creation of the phase portrait. Besides being accurate and intuitively understandable, the methodology is relatively simple to implement and provides a rapid visualisation of the overall risk extent of a project.

scholarly journals Integrales Management von gravitativen Naturrisiken in der Schweiz

2011 ◽  
Vol 162 (12) ◽  
pp. 454-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt Hollenstein ◽  
Josef Hess
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
17Th Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Natural Catastrophes ◽  
Land Use Development ◽  
The 1960S

Integral management of gravitational natural hazards in Switzerland The management of gravitational natural hazards has undergone several fundamental changes in the past centuries. As late as the 17th century, natural catastrophes were considered to be strokes of fate or the expression of divine or satanic dealings. In the age of Enlightenment the comprehension of the processes involved in these dangers grew, together with the conviction that it was possible by technical means to protect oneself against them. A long way into the 20th century this concept of protection from danger had a large following. The natural catastrophes of the second half of the 20th century then showed ever more clearly the technical and financial limits of this concept. By the middle of the 1960s protection from natural hazards began to be considered within the context of overall land-use development. Nowadays integral risk management, which includes risk analysis, evaluation, and response, is well anchored in practice as regards gravitational natural hazards. Nonetheless, in order to make the best use of the potential of this approach, it is now necessary to improve certain basic politico-legal, organisational, and professional conditions.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

THEORETICAL PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING THE COST OF A SOFTWARE PRODUCT

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavlo Rodionov ◽  
◽  
Anna Ploskonos ◽  
Lesya Gavrutenko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Software Products ◽  
Software Product ◽  
Continue Research ◽  
Cocomo Model ◽  
Factors Of Influence ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

The paper analyzes the factors that affect the amount of effort required to create a mobile application and its cost. It is established that the main factors of influence are the design of the application, its functionality, the type of mobile platform, the availability and level of testing and support, as well as the individual characteristics of the developer. Based on the analysis of information sources, the main methods and approaches to forecasting the cost of software products are identified, which include the COCOMO model, Price-to-win method, expert evaluation, algorithmic methods and the method of analogies. It is proposed to consider the method of analogies as a tool that allows you to make predictions about the cost of resources required for the successful implementation of IT projects based on the experience of similar projects. It is proved that the advantages of this method are the simplicity of its implementation and the clarity of the results obtained, which follows from the practical orientation of this tool. Among the limitations of the method of analogy is the mandatory need for reliable data relating to similar projects, as well as the difficulty of taking into account unspecified indicators. Taking into account the mentioned limitations of the method of analogies and on the basis of the analysis of scientific sources the possible directions of its optimization are determined. Thus, among the ways to improve the effectiveness of this method are those aimed at optimizing the project selection process, the data for which are used as a basis for forecasting. Attempts to improve the method of analogies by including parameters that were previously ignored by this technique seem promising. This in turn can lead to an expansion of the scope of the method of analogies and increase the accuracy of forecasts. As prospects for further research, the need to continue research in the field of optimization of the method of analogies with the subsequent practical verification of theoretical positions on the data of real projects.

FUNCTIONING OF THE MENTAL DEFENSES IN THE CONDUCT OF INTERROGATION WITHIN THE CRIMINAL PROCESS

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2161-2165
Author(s):  
Hristo Ivanov Popnikolov
Keyword(s):  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Critical Conditions ◽  
Criminal Process ◽  
External Influences ◽  
Administration Of Justice ◽  
Individual Protection ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Subjective Side

From the subject presented in the report it is evident that the pre-trial and the court bodies may, to some extent, be influenced both by the person of the accused and by his competence to participate in the criminal process. In this regard as an expert, the psychologist can offer invaluable assistance. Each expertise would assist all actors involved in the administration of justice on their objective assessment of the offenders, the understanding of their individual protection and the inherent self-justification during procedural actions. The involvement of psychologists in the criminal process is key to establishing the truth in the investigation, because every crime as an act has a subjective side, expressed in the psychic attitude of the perpetrator to the committed act. Establishing these psychological motives is a key point in the criminal process with a view to establishing the truth.Psychological protection stabilizes the personality in the critical conditions of counteraction, related to the elimination of the experiences of tension, anxiety, stress and frustration, leading to maximum mobilization of its resources and at the same time to their overpayment. Thus, the individual who is the subject of the process action is protected against the adverse external influences, but at the cost of a lot of effort and enormous loss of nervous-mental energy, which increases his own vulnerability instead of contributing to its reduction. The appearance and functioning of psychological protection can be significantly impeded by the interaction of the investigator with the accused. Even more complicated is the situation when it breaks the communication contact that may arise in the psychological alienation and self-isolation of the accused due to the desire to protect himself.Protective psychological dominance is a real psychic activity that investigators, investigators, investigators and judges need to take into account in order to effectively deal with their task and to overcome the resistance of the investigated persons and in a time to prove in a lawful and moral way their guilt and participation in the commitment of the crimes.

Automated Control of the Microclimate in the Premises of Pig-Breeding Complexes

2020 ◽  
pp. 103-108
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Yu. Ukhanova
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Feed Consumption ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Research Purpose ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Pig Farming ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

In the pig breeding, a large share of the production cost is accounted for by the cost of electricity and heat. Reducing energy costs is one of the important tasks of the industry. It is important to identify and study modern technologies and equipment for pig farming due to the constant increase in electricity tariffs, significant energy costs for creating and maintaining a microclimate. (Research purpose) The research purpose is in an analysis of modern available technologies and equipment for agricultural production, including pig farming, allowing to reduce the cost of production. (Materials and methods) Authors used a method for determining the standard indicators of energy consumption of energy resources in the pig industry, based on the calculation and analytical method. The article presents an analyze of automated microclimate management systems in pig breeding complexes, taking into account the individual characteristics of farms produced by OWEN. (Results and discussion) Automated microclimate management systems can improve the productivity of pig farms; reduce the cost of electrical and thermal energy, reduce the number of diseases of animal from hypothermia, high humidity or temperature in the room, feed consumption; monitor the chemical composition of the air. The article considers three options for creating a microclimate in rooms with animals, taking into account the individual characteristics of enterprises. (Conclusions) The profitability of pig production depend on the level of technical equipment of farms, automation, and the use of energy-saving technologies and equipment. The use of innovations in agricultural production makes it possible to increase labor productivity up to three times, and savings due to reduced feed costs can reach several million rubles a year.

scholarly journals Territories of state-led aquaculture risk management: Thailand’s Plang Yai program

2020 ◽  
pp. 239965442096524
Author(s):  
Mariska JM Bottema ◽  
Simon R Bush ◽  
Peter Oosterveer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Shared Resources ◽  
Globalizing World ◽  
Farmer Behavior ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Degree

The Thai aquaculture sector faces a range of production, market and financial risks that extend beyond the private space of farms to include public spaces and shared resources. The Thai state has attempted to manage these shared risks through its Plang Yai (or ‘Big Area’) agricultural extension program. Using the lens of territorialization, this paper investigates how, through the Plang Yai program, risk management is institutionalized through spatially explicit forms of collaboration amongst farmers and between farmers and (non-)state actors. We focus on how four key policy instruments brought together under Plang Yai delimited multiple territories of risk management over shrimp and tilapia production in Chantaburi and Chonburi provinces. Our findings demonstrate how these policy instruments address risks through dissimilar but overlapping territories that are selectively biased toward facilitating the individual management of production risks, whilst enabling both the individual and collective management of market and financial risks. This raises questions about the suitability of addressing aquaculture risks by controlling farmer behavior through state-led designation of singular, spatially explicit areas. The findings also indicate the multiple roles of the state in territorializing risk management, providing a high degree of flexibility, which is especially valuable in landscapes shared by many users, connected to (global) value chains and facing diverse risks. In doing so we demonstrate that understanding the territorialization of production landscapes in a globalizing world requires a dynamic approach recognizing the multiplicity of territories that emerge in risk management processes.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of an Exercise Programme that Provided Group or Individual Training to Reduce the Fall Risk in Healthy Community-Dwelling People Aged 65–80: A Secondary Data Analysis

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 714
Author(s):  
Isaac Aranda-Reneo ◽  
Laura Albornos-Muñoz ◽  
Manuel Rich-Ruiz ◽  
María Ángeles Cidoncha-Moreno ◽  
Ángeles Pastor-López ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Older People ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Individual Training

Research has demonstrated that some exercise programs are effective for reducing fall rates in community-dwelling older people; however, the literature is limited in providing clear recommendations of individual or group training as a result of economic evaluation. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the Otago Exercise Program (OEP) for reducing the fall risk in healthy, non-institutionalized older people. An economic evaluation of a multicenter, blinded, randomized, non-inferiority clinical trial was performed on 498 patients aged over 65 in primary care. Participants were randomly allocated to the treatment or control arms, and group or individual training. The program was delivered in primary healthcare settings and comprised five initial sessions, ongoing encouragement and support to exercise at home, and a reinforcement session after six months. Our hypothesis was that the patients who received the intervention would achieve better health outcomes and therefore need lower healthcare resources during the follow-up, thus, lower healthcare costs. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which used the timed up and go test results as an effective measure for preventing falls. The secondary outcomes included differently validated tools that assessed the fall risk. The cost per patient was USD 51.28 lower for the group than the individual sessions in the control group, and the fall risk was 10% lower when exercises had a group delivery. The OEP program delivered in a group manner was superior to the individual method. We observed slight differences in the incremental cost estimations when using different tools to assess the risk of fall, but all of them indicated the dominance of the intervention group. The OEP group sessions were more cost-effective than the individual sessions, and the fall risk was 10% lower.

scholarly journals The Integration of People Convicted of a Sexual Offence Into the Community and Their (Risk) Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. F. McCartan ◽  
K. Richards
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Life Course ◽  
Ecological Model ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Community Integration ◽  
Sexual Offence ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
Childhood Experiences ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Purpose of Review We are reviewing recent research into the community integration of men convicted of a sexual offence and their (risk) management. This is a high-profile political issue that binds together research in psychology, criminology, politics, health, public health, and policy studies. The review will demonstrate that a multi-disciplinary, life course, EpiCrim-oriented approach is the most effective way of reducing re-offending and promoting desistance in this population. Recent Findings Research demonstrates that life course development, especially from psychology and criminology, has an impact on whether people sexually offend or not. Therefore, to understand sexual offending behaviour, we need to look at the aetiology of said behaviour from a nature and a nurture perspective. Therefore, we need to use an Epidemiological Criminology (a marriage of Public Health and criminology) approach that works at all four stages of the Socio-Ecological Model (SEM) (individual, interrelationship, community, and societal). The research encourages a person first approach, that we look at Adverse Childhood Experiences and past trauma in the lives of men who sexually offend and use this, in conjunction with strength-based approaches, to inclusively integrate them into society. Summary The prevention of sexual offending, both first time offending, and relapse prevention require a multi-level, multi-disciplinary approach. Successful desistance from sexual offending is as much about the community and society as it is about the individual.

scholarly journals ‘Rising demand and decreasing resources’: Theorising the ‘cost of austerity’ as a barrier to social worker discretion

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
CIARÁN MURPHY
Keyword(s):  
Social Worker ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Child Protection Services ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Critical Realist ◽  
Documentary Analysis ◽  
Effective System ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost

Abstract The Munro Review of Child Protection asserted that the English child protection system had become overly ‘defensive’, ‘bureaucratised’ and ‘standardised’, meaning that social workers were not employing their discretion in the interests of the individual child. This paper reports on the results of an ethnographic case study of one of England’s statutory child protection teams. The research sought to explore the extent of social worker discretion relative to Munro’s call for ‘radical reform’ and a move towards a more ‘child-centred’ system. Employing an iterative mixed methods design – encompassing documentary analysis, observation, focus group, questionnaire, interview and ‘Critical Realist Grounded Theory’ – the study positioned the UK Government’s prolonged policy of ‘austerity’ as a barrier to social worker discretion. This was because the policy was seen to be contributing to an increased demand for child protection services; and a related sense amongst practitioners that they were afforded insufficient time with the child to garner the requisite knowledge, necessary for discretionary behaviour. Ultimately, despite evidence of progress relative to assertions that social worker discretion had been eroded, the paper concludes that there may still be ‘more to do’ if we are to achieve the ‘child-centred’ and ‘effective’ system that Munro advocated.

scholarly journals In the service of secrecy: An enveloped history of priority, proof and patents

2021 ◽  
pp. 135918352110288
Author(s):  
Eva Hemmungs Wirtén
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
Property System ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Propriété Industrielle ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Double Envelope ◽  
Double Compartment

This article is about an everyday paper object: an envelope. However, as opposed to most other flat paper containers, the enveloppe Soleau can only be bought from L’Institut national de la propriété industrielle (INPI) in Paris. At the cost of €15 you get a perforated, double-compartment envelope allowing you to constitute proof of creation and assign a precise date to your idea or project. But the enveloppe Soleau is something much more than just a simple and cheap way by which you can prove priority in any creative domain. It is a material footprint anchored to centuries of practices associated with disclosure and secrecy, a gateway into the infrastructure of the intellectual property system and its complicated relationship to the forms of knowledge it purports to hold. The purpose of this article is to consider the making of the enveloppe Soleau as a bureaucratic document, a material device performing a particular kind of legal paperwork. In four different vignettes, the article tracks the material becoming of the enveloppe Soleau as an evidentiary receptacle, beginning by going back to early modern practices of secrecy and priority, continuing with its consolidation in two patents (from 1910 and 1911) to the inventor Eugène Soleau (1852–1929), and ending up, in 2016, dematerialized in the e-Soleau. As a bureaucratic document, the enveloppe Soleau shows just how much work a mundane paper object can perform, navigating a particular materiality (a patented double envelope); formalized processes of proof (where perforations have legal significance); the practices of double archiving (in an institution and with the individual) and strict temporal limitations (a decade). Ultimately, the enveloppe Soleau travels between the material and immaterial, between private and public, between secrecy and disclosure, but also between what we perceive of as the outside and inside of the intellectual property system.

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