Abstract
Objective
To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020
associated with the covid-19 pandemic.
Design
Time series analysis.
Setting
37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and
complete mortality data.
Participants
Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for
2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex.
Main outcome measures
Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed
and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess
years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and
expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization
standard life table.
Results
Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the
countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a
gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life
expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in
life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval
−2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men:
−2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96,
−2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07
to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32;
women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women:
−1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected
in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and
South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of
life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m
to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to
17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest
excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria
(men: 7260, 95% confidence interval 6820 to 7710; women: 3730, 2740 to
4730), Russia (men: 7020, 6550 to 7480; women: 4760, 4530 to 4990),
Lithuania (men: 5430, 4750 to 6070; women: 2640, 2310 to 2980), the US (men:
4350, 4170 to 4530; women: 2430, 2320 to 2550), Poland (men: 3830, 3540 to
4120; women: 1830, 1630 to 2040), and Hungary (men: 2770, 2490 to 3040;
women: 1920, 1590 to 2240). The excess years of life lost were relatively
low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania,
and the US where the excess years of life lost was >2000 per 100 000.
Conclusion
More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries,
with a higher rate in men than women. Excess years of life lost associated
with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher than
those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015.
Delay Time Parameter and Its Confidence Interval of Predictive Time Series of COVID-19 Outbreak Between the First and the Second Wave
