scholarly journals Age-stratified discrete compartment model of the COVID-19 epidemic with application to Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadoua Balabdaoui ◽  
Dirk Mohr
Keyword(s):  
Infected Individual ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Modern Health Care ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
To Come ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Important Basis ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Model Based Analysis

AbstractCompartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged ≥ 80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place.

scholarly journals Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadoua Balabdaoui ◽  
Dirk Mohr
Keyword(s):  
Infected Individual ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Modern Health Care ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Important Basis ◽  
Stratified Model

AbstractCompartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged ≥80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place.

scholarly journals Beyond the peak: A deterministic compartment model for exploring the Covid-19 evolution in Italy

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0241951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvio Romano ◽  
Annalisa Fierro ◽  
Antonella Liccardo
Keyword(s):  
Compartment Model ◽  
Protective Behaviors ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fast Descent

Novel Covid-19 has had a huge impact on the world’s population since December 2019. The very rapid spreading of the virus worldwide, with its heavy toll of death and overload of the healthcare systems, induced the scientific community to focus on understanding, monitoring and foreseeing the epidemic evolution, weighing up the impact of different containment measures. An immense literature was produced in few months. Many papers were focused on predicting the peak features through a variety of different models. In the present paper, combining the surveillance data-set with data on mobility and testing, we develop a deterministic compartment model aimed at performing a retrospective analysis to understand the main modifications occurred to the characteristic parameters that regulate the epidemic spreading. We find that, besides self-protective behaviors, a reduction of susceptibility should have occurred in order to explain the fast descent of the epidemic after the peak. A sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number, in response to variations of the epidemiological parameters that can be influenced by policy-makers, shows the primary importance of a rigid isolation procedure for the diagnosed cases, combined with an intensive effort in performing extended testing campaigns. Future scenarios depend on the ability to protect the population from the injection of new cases from abroad, and to pursue in applying rigid self-protective measures.

scholarly journals EU Labor Market Inequalities and Sustainable Development Goals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2675
Author(s):  
Elena Jianu ◽  
Ramona Pîrvu ◽  
Gheorghe Axinte ◽  
Ovidiu Toma ◽  
Andrei Valentin Cojocaru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Public Policy Issue ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
To Come ◽  
Business Practitioners ◽  
The Eu

Reducing inequalities for EU citizens and promoting upward convergence is one of the priorities on the agenda of the European Commission and, certainly, inequality will be a very important public policy issue for years to come. Through this research we aim to investigate EU labor market inequalities, reflected by the specific indicators proposed for Goal 8 assumed by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, based on cluster analysis for all the 27 Member States. The research results showed encouraging results from the perspective of convergence in the EU labor market, but also revealed a number of analyzed variable effects that manifested regional inequalities that were generated in the medium and long term. Based on the observations made, we want to provide information for policy-makers, business practitioners, and academics so as to constitute solid ground for identifying good practices and proposing to implement policies aimed at reducing existing inequalities and supporting sustainable development.

scholarly journals What If the Influenza Vaccine Did Not Offer Such Variable Protection?

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (7) ◽  
pp. 1138-1144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M Bartsch ◽  
Elizabeth A Mitgang ◽  
Gail Geller ◽  
Sarah N Cox ◽  
Kelly J O’Shea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Direct Medical Costs ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The protection that an influenza vaccine offers can vary significantly from person to person due to differences in immune systems, body types, and other factors. The question, then, is what is the value of efforts to reduce this variability such as making vaccines more personalized and tailored to individuals. Methods We developed a compartment model of the United States to simulate different influenza seasons and the impact of reducing the variability in responses to the influenza vaccine across the population. Results Going from a vaccine that varied in efficacy (0–30%) to one that had a uniform 30% efficacy for everyone averted 16.0–31.2 million cases, $1.9–$3.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $16.1–$42.7 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–50% in efficacy to just 50% for everyone averted 27.7–38.6 million cases, $3.3–$4.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $28.8–$57.4 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–70% to 70% averted 33.6–54.1 million cases, $4.0–$6.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $44.8–$64.7 billion in productivity losses. Conclusions This study quantifies for policy makers, funders, and vaccine developers and manufacturers the potential impact of efforts to reduce variability in the protection that influenza vaccines offer (eg, developing vaccines that are more personalized to different individual factors).

Digital Leadership: Attributes to modern healthcare leaders (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah T Alanazi
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Digital Technology ◽  
Delphi Technique ◽  
It Adoption ◽  
Leadership Qualities ◽  
Leadership Attributes ◽  
Digital Era ◽  
Modern Health Care ◽  
To Come ◽  
Outstanding Leadership

BACKGROUND Living in this digital era requires widespread adoption of information technology in modern health care industry. OBJECTIVE The aim of the current research was to study key attributes and behaviors related to successful leaders need to achieve vision and successful IT adoption. METHODS A Delphi technique with three rounds was held and guided by structured questions. Part of the study conducted online due to COVID-19 guidelines on distancing norms and lockdown in some areas. The answers of the participants were evaluated on the five- point Likert scale. RESULTS The findings showed that leadership qualities in health care sector resemble those required in other sectors. For digital innovations in rapidly changing healthcare space, leaders need to play more proactive role, be visionary, more dynamic, and lead by example to take the organization to the next level. CONCLUSIONS Leaders need to come out of their ivory towers, understand the fast-evolving scenario where the outstanding leadership qualities are essential to prove one’s mettle; outshine others; and create strong foundation for adoption of modern efficient customized digital technology in the fast growing health care sectors.

scholarly journals work all the time- He just waits for the animals to come back” Social impacts of climate changes: A Greenlandic case study

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roanne Van Voorst
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Social Research ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
To Come ◽  
And Gender

Understanding human adaptation to climate changes is one of the most important research issues within the area of global environmental change, accounting for the fact that people worldwide are currently adapting to their changing environment (Adger and Kelly 2000: 253; Smit et al. 2008). The Greenlandic case study as presented in this paper is mainly based on a literature analysis and ethnographic data obtained during the Greenlandic winter of 2008, with emphasis on the latter. Participant observation and interviews were combined with a discursive analysis of climate change-related policies. The empirical findings as presented in this paper suggest that an exclusive and gender-neutral focus of policy makers on economic aspects of adaptation to climate changes may increase socio-economic inequality as well as male domestic violence over women. Social research can help to identify such chains of reactions resulting from climate changes and related policies, by focusing on individual adaptation strategies of male and female actors in vulnerable societies.

scholarly journals Challenges Faced by Devolved Governance in Quality Service Delivery: A Case Study of Turkana Central Sub-county, Turkana County, Kenya

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
James K. Sirite ◽  
Henry Ongori ◽  
Darius Bosire
Keyword(s):  
Service Delivery ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Quality Service ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
County Governments ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
To Come

The purpose of this study was to identify the challenges faced in quality service delivery to Turkana Central Sub-county citizens of Turkana County. The study used cross-sectional survey design. The sample size selected for the study was 261.  Data was collected using questionnaires and interview guides. Data was analyzed by descriptive statistics and presented in tables and figures for ease interpretation. The major findings of the study show that devolved governance faces some challenges. For instance the devolved governance is faced with corruption, lack of transparency and accountability and inadequate funds. This adversely   affects quality service delivery to its citizens. The findings of the study would inspire policy makers at the county and national government level to come up with appropriate strategies to mitigate the challenges identified in order to improve the quality of services offered by the county governments.

scholarly journals A Journey through and beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indian Setup-Lessons Learnt So Far

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Divyesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Health Security ◽  
The Past ◽  
Lessons Learnt ◽  
The People ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Day By Day

World over life was going at its normal pace when an outbreak occurred in Hubei province of China in the later part of the year 2019. This outbreak was soon found to be caused by a virus named coronavirus (COVID-19). Rapidly the virus spread globally leading to a pandemic. The mortality rate was increasing day by day and helplessly everyone was wondering what actually could be done to prevent the spread. Lessons from the past epidemic made it possible to think that maintaining social distancing and adequate hygiene might help to combat the ailment. In India, majorly affected were the people from poor strata and the businessmen who were earning their daily bread by selling things of daily need. The health sector too witnessed an alarming ratio of patients suffering from COVID-19. The second wave, which soon followd the first wave, caused much more havoc. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic, exposed and challanged the health security system of every country. As the danger of pandemic still prevails, steps to curtail the spread of disease and future management strategies should be formulated from the lessons learnt through the COVID-19 phase.

scholarly journals Making it normal for ‘new’ enrolments: Effect of institutional and pandemic influence on selecting an Engineering Institution under Covid-19 pandemic situation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashant Mahajan ◽  
Vaishali Patil
Keyword(s):  
Mental Stress ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Institutional Characteristics ◽  
Emotional Life ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Institutional Influence ◽  
To Come ◽  
Normal Track ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Covid-19 pandemic has enforced Indian engineering institutions (EIs) to bring their previously half-shut shades completely down. Fetching new admissions into EI campus during pandemic it has become ‘now or never’ situation for EIs. During crises situation institutions have struggled to come back on the normal track. The pandemic that has changed students’ behavior and family’s preferences drastically due to mental stress and emotional life attached with it. Consequently, it becomes prerequisite, and emergency need to examine the choice characteristics influencing selection of EI during Covid-19 pandemic situation. The purpose of this study is to critically examine institutional influence and pandemic influence due to Covid-19 that affects students’ choice about an engineering institution (EI) and consequently to explore relationships between institutional and pandemic influence. The findings of this quantitative research, conducted through a self-reported survey have revealed that institutional as well as pandemic influence have governed the EI choice under Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, pandemic influence is positively affected by institutional influence. The study demonstrated that EIs will have to reposition themselves to normalize pandemic influence by tuning institutional characteristics that regulates situational influence and new enrollments. It can be yardstick for policy makers to attract new enrollments under pandemic situation.

scholarly journals Epidemiological perspectives of COVID-19 in Telangana and India: a descriptive study design

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1817
Author(s):  
Amruta Barhate ◽  
Prakash Bhatia
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Study Design ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
The World ◽  
To Come ◽  
Second Wave

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has made the world to come to a standstill. What started as on 16th March 2020, as 114 confirmed cases of COVID‑19 in the country has now reached worrisome figures. The latest world scenario as per WHO as on 30th November, 2020 is as under-World data: 62,509,444 cases, deaths: 1,458,782; USA: 13,082,877 cases, deaths: 263,946; India: 9,431,691 cases, deaths 137, 139. It is evident that worldwide India is number two in case load and there’s no reason to prevent India from becoming number one unless appropriate corrective steps are taken.Methods: The present study has looked into various data sources available in public domain. The study covered a period of almost nine months i.e., from March 2020 to November 2020. The study revealed a steady increase in the number of COVID-19 cases from March 2020 with peak of pandemic occurring in the mid of September and then a steady decline of cases from October.Results: The data analysis shows that after peaking of cases in September, the epidemic will decline in a phased manner by the end of March 2021. Even though there is a decline seen from the month of October, spike of COVID-19 cases was seen in November in some of the states of India. Therefore, we can’t deny the possibility of a second wave of pandemic to occur in the month of December 2020 and January 2021.Conclusions: Hence appropriate and strict control measures have to be put in place for effective control of the Pandemic and its resurgence.

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