2.5D and 3D packaging can provide significant size and performance advantages over other packaging technologies. However, these advantages usually come at a high price. Since 2.5D and 3D packaging costs are significant, today they are only used if no other option can meet the product requirements, and most of these applications are relatively low volume. Products such as high end FPGAs, high performance GPUs, and high bandwidth memory are great applications but none have volume requirements close to mobile phones or tablets. Without the benefit of volume production, the cost of 2.5D and 3D packaging could stay high for a long time.
In this paper, we will provide cost model results of a complete 2.5D and 3D manufacturing process. Each manufacturing activity will be included and the key cost drivers will be analyzed regarding future cost reductions. Expensive activities that are well down the learning curve (RDL creation, CMP, etc.) will probably not change much in the future. However, expensive activities that are new to this process (DRIE, temporary bond/debond, etc.) provide good opportunities for cost reduction. A variety of scenarios will be included to understand how design characteristics impact the cost. Understanding how and why the dominant cost components will change over time is critical to accurately predicting the future cost of 2.5D and 3D packaging.