scholarly journals Glacier retreat in the High Arctic: opportunity or threat for ectomycorrhizal diversity?

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
S S Botnen ◽  
S Mundra ◽  
H Kauserud ◽  
P B Eidesen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Pioneer Plants ◽  
Ecm Fungi ◽  
Ecological Importance ◽  
Increasing Temperature

ABSTRACT Climate change causes Arctic glaciers to retreat faster, exposing new areas for colonization. Several pioneer plants likely to colonize recent deglaciated, nutrient-poor areas depend on fungal partners for successful establishment. Little is known about general patterns or characteristics of facilitating fungal pioneers and how they vary with regional climate in the Arctic. The High Arctic Archipelago Svalbard represents an excellent study system to address these questions, as glaciers cover ∼60% of the land surface and recent estimations suggest at least 7% reduction of glacier area since 1960s. Roots of two ectomycorrhizal (ECM) plants (Salix polaris and Bistorta vivipara) were sampled in eight glacier forelands. Associated ECM fungi were assessed using DNA metabarcoding. About 25% of the diversity was unknown at family level, indicating presence of undescribed species. Seven genera dominated based on richness and abundance, but their relative importance varied with local factors. The genus Geopora showed surprisingly high richness and abundance, particularly in dry, nutrient-poor forelands. Such forelands will diminish along with increasing temperature and precipitation, and faster succession. Our results support a taxonomical shift in pioneer ECM diversity with climate change, and we are likely to lose unknown fungal diversity, without knowing their identity or ecological importance.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Projections of Twenty-First-Century Climate Extremes for Alaska via Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2393-2409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Lader ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Peter A. Bieniek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter the frequencies and intensities of at least some types of extreme events. Although Alaska is already experiencing an amplified response to climate change, studies of extreme event occurrences have lagged those for other regions. Forced migration due to coastal erosion, failing infrastructure on thawing permafrost, more severe wildfire seasons, altered ocean chemistry, and an ever-shrinking season for snow and ice are among the most devastating effects, many of which are related to extreme climate events. This study uses regional dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate projected twenty-first-century changes of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Alaska. The forcing data used for the downscaling simulations include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; 1981–2010), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), historical (1976–2005), and GFDL CM3 representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2006–2100). Observed trends of temperature and sea ice coverage in the Arctic are large, and the present trajectory of global emissions makes a continuation of these trends plausible. The future scenario is bias adjusted using a quantile-mapping procedure. Results indicate an asymmetric warming of climate extremes; namely, cold extremes rise fastest, and the greatest changes occur in winter. Maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts are projected to increase by 53% and 50%, which is larger than the corresponding increases for the contiguous United States. When compared with the historical period, the shifts in temperature and precipitation indicate unprecedented heat and rainfall across Alaska during this century.

scholarly journals Effects of Forest Changes on Summer Surface Temperature in Changbai Mountain, China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1551
Author(s):  
Jiaqi Zhang ◽  
Xiangjin Shen ◽  
Yanji Wang ◽  
Ming Jiang ◽  
Xianguo Lu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Changbai Mountain ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Forest Coverage ◽  
Cooling Effects

The area and vegetation coverage of forests in Changbai Mountain of China have changed significantly during the past decades. Understanding the effects of forests and forest coverage change on regional climate is important for predicting climate change in Changbai Mountain. Based on the satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST), albedo, evapotranspiration, leaf area index, and land-use data, this study analyzed the influences of forests and forest coverage changes on summer LST in Changbai Mountain. Results showed that the area and vegetation coverage of forests increased in Changbai Mountain from 2003 to 2017. Compared with open land, forests could decrease the summer daytime LST (LSTD) and nighttime LST (LSTN) by 1.10 °C and 0.07 °C, respectively. The increase in forest coverage could decrease the summer LSTD and LSTN by 0.66 °C and 0.04 °C, respectively. The forests and increasing forest coverage had cooling effects on summer temperature, mainly by decreasing daytime temperature in Changbai Mountain. The daytime cooling effect is mainly related to the increased latent heat flux caused by increasing evapotranspiration. Our results suggest that the effects of forest coverage change on climate should be considered in climate models for accurately simulating regional climate change in Changbai Mountain of China.

scholarly journals Fir (Abies spp.) stand biomass additive model for Eurasia sensitive to winter temperature and annual precipitation

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 166-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Usoltsev ◽  
Katarína Merganičová ◽  
Bohdan Konôpka ◽  
Anna A. Osmirko ◽  
Ivan S. Tsepordey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biomass Allocation ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Common Pattern ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Shoot Ratio ◽  
Biomass Components ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract Climate change, especially modified courses of temperature and precipitation, has a significant impact on forest functioning and productivity. Moreover, some alterations in tree biomass allocation (e.g. root to shoot ratio, foliage to wood parts) might be expected in these changing ecological conditions. Therefore, we attempted to model fir stand biomass (t ha−1) along the trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients using the data from 272 forest stands. The model outputs suggested that all biomass components, except for the crown mass, change in a common pattern, but in different ratios. Specifically, in the range of mean January temperature and precipitation of −30°C to +10°C and 300 to 900 mm, fir stand biomass increases with both increasing temperature and precipitation. Under an assumed increase of January temperature by 1°C, biomass of roots and of all components of the aboveground biomass of fir stands increased (under the assumption that the precipitation level did not change). Similarly, an assumed increase in precipitation by 100 mm resulted in the increased biomass of roots and of all aboveground components. We conclude that fir seems to be a perspective taxon from the point of its productive properties in the ongoing process of climate change.

scholarly journals An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2959-2970
Author(s):  
Maialen Iturbide ◽  
José M. Gutiérrez ◽  
Lincoln M. Alves ◽  
Joaquín Bedia ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

ON IMPACT OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN RUSSIAN ARCTIC ON SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITION TO GREEN GROWTH

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 141-146
Author(s):  
N. E. TERENTIEV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
General Description ◽  
Green Growth ◽  
Development Paradigm ◽  
Working Out

The paper, regarding the latest data on climate change in the Arctic, is focused on selected methodological issues of estimating socioeconomic impact of climate change. A general description of forecasting models, considering climatic risks at regional level. It is shown that such models can be utilized as a tool for supporting working out and monitoring of long-term development of a region. Role and selected directions of transition to green growth at regional level within sustainable development paradigm.

Signals of Climate Change and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Climate Extremes in the Homogeneous Climatic Zones of Pakistan During 1962-2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firdos Khan ◽  
Shaukat Ali ◽  
Christoph Mayer ◽  
Hamd Ullah ◽  
Sher Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
North Pakistan ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract This study investigates contemporary climate change and spatio-temporal analysis of climate extremes in Pakistan (divided into five homogenous climate zones) using observed data, categorized between 1962–1990 and 1991–2019. The results show that on the average, the changes in temperature and precipitation are significant at 5 % significance level throughout Pakistan in most of the seasons. The spatio-temporal trend analysis of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except in zone 4 indicating throughout decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days) and R25mm (extremely heavy precipitation days) are significantly decreasing (increasing) during 1962–1990 (1991–2019) in North Pakistan. Summer days (SU25) increased across the country, except in zone 4 with a decrease. TX10p (Cool days) decreased across the country except an increase in zone 1 and zone 2 during 1962–1990. TX90p (Warm days) has an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except zone 5 and decreasing trend during 1962–1990 except zone 2 and 5. The Mann-Kendal test indicates increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperature (JJA) in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis suggests decreasing precipitation during 1991–2019 and increasing temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019 which is in line with the recently confirmed slight mass loss of glaciers against Karakoram Anomaly.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 6229-6245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk-Jan van der Kolk ◽  
Monique M. P. D. Heijmans ◽  
Jacobus van Huissteden ◽  
Jeroen W. M. Pullens ◽  
Frank Berendse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vegetation Shifts ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Tundra Vegetation ◽  
Tundra Ecosystem ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

scholarly journals Climate Extremes over the Arabian Peninsula Using RegCM4 for Present Conditions Forced by Several CMIP5 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region.

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